Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.
Top 5 Rushing Matchups
Arizona at Carolina
James Conner has seen a late-season surge that has propelled the Cardinals over the last three weeks and was a big reason for their much-needed victory against New England to keep Arizona's playoff chances alive. Conner has averaged 5.3 yards per carry over his last three games and capped it off with 110 yards and two touchdowns last week. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray has all but abandoned the rushing attack as he doesn't seem to be 100% healthy and left last week's game for a drive due to a head injury. Murray has run for over 25 yards just once in his last seven games compared to five times in his first seven games. This should continue to push the volume toward James Conner this week, as Conner is averaging 17 carries per game over the last three weeks.
Carolina's run defense continues to be the worst in the NFL. They've now allowed opposing running backs to run for over 100 yards in five of their last six games, as Rico Dowdle had 149 yards on 25 carries last week. This team was still giving a solid effort; they lacked talent, but the effort diminished last week. Now, we're seeing a team with nearly all their defensive starters missing practice on Wednesday because of the rest. There's really no saving this team this season, as they just don't have the bodies to improve this run defense. The Panthers lost another linebacker in last week's game, and they've now lost two in the last two weeks. Trevin Wallace and Claudin Cherelus have been placed on IR to join Shaq Thompson, who was lost earlier this season. They'll be starting Jon Rhattigan, who is in his fourth season in the NFL but has only been a special teams player throughout his career, along with an undrafted rookie, Jacoby Windmon, who has just three tackles all season, will be the backup to Rhattigan. Already the league's worst defensive line, this is just a situation you should try to take advantage of for the next three weeks.
Detroit at Chicago
The Lions will be without David Montgomery for the remainder of the season as the running back suffered an MCL injury requiring surgery last week. This should mean that the Lions will feed the ball as much as they can to Jahmyr Gibbs, with Craig Reynolds serving as the backup role this week. Just how much volume Gibbs can handle will be the big question, as he's only averaging 16.0 touches per game but has seen a slight uptick recently, averaging 17.25 over the last four games. It seems unlikely that Gibbs is going to have Alvin Kamara-type volume where he is approaching 30 touches, so Reynolds will likely have a role here as the Lions need to be looking ahead toward the playoffs. This is a team that has one of the best offensive lines in football, led by their tackles as Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell are having tremendous seasons, while 34-year-old Kevin Zeitler is having a career resurgence playing alongside center Frank Ragnow and Sewell.
Chicago simply looks lost without Matt Eberflus calling the plays. Since Eberflus was fired, the Bears have been allowing 34 points per game while they have been losing both games by an average of 21.5 points. This run defense has been struggling far longer than the two games without their head coach, but now we're adding in the negative game script, which only encourages more rushing from their opponents. While Chicago hasn't allowed any massive 150+ rushing yard performances, mostly thanks to their strong safety play, they are a unit that allows a lot of yards to every team they face. Since Week 9, the Bears have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, the second-most rushing yards per game, and every running back that they have faced has topped at least 70 yards. This is an issue where they do not have the defensive front seven to consistently win in the trenches. The interior of the defensive line has significant issues, while the linebackers, who had hoped to be a strength heading into this season, have disappointed as T.J. Edwards is having a career-worst season while Tremaine Edmunds has struggled over the last two seasons with Chicago since they signed him from Buffalo.
Denver at LA Chargers
Denver's running back room is a complete mess. Jahleel McLaughlin will miss this week with a quad injury, which leaves Javonte Williams and Audric Estime as the two running backs for Denver. It would seem likely that Estime would get the majority of the volume here, as Williams has struggled in recent weeks. Over his last three games, he's averaged just six carries for 4.7 total yards per game, averaging less than one yard per carry. Meanwhile, Estime has not seen much volume but has been slightly better, averaging 3.6 carries and 13.3 yards per game. Either way, neither running back inspires much confidence here as the strength of the Broncos offensive line was their tackles while having some glaring holes on the interior at center and left guard with Luke Wattenberg and Ben Powers. McLaughlin excelled at the off-tackle runs, but neither Estime nor Williams fits the speed, cut-back running back profile. We could see more Marvin Mims Jr. getting multiple carries this week on jet sweep-type plays.
The Chargers are a difficult team to figure out. This had started the year as one of the league's best defenses, but since Week 9, they're allowing the fifth-most rushing yards per game. Even more recently, the Chargers have allowed three 100-yard rushers over their last four games as Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, and an injured Bucky Irving all were able to run on this defense. What's most concerning is not that Irving topped 100 yards. It is more that Sean Tucker and Rachaad White also found success, as Tampa Bay had 198 rushing yards. A big reason for the decline has been injuries in the secondary that have forced the Chargers to put more emphasis on stopping the pass, which has left their run defense vulnerable. Los Angeles suffered two more critical injuries last week. Safety Elijah Molden and cornerback Cam Hart will both miss this week. With the loss of Molden, the Chargers are now down to just Marcus Maye, who has been with the team for just three weeks as the only free safety left, with both Molden and Alohi Gilman injured.
Miami at San Francisco
De'Von Achane is struggling. After averaging an unsustainable 7.8 yards per carry, Achane has regressed hard down to just 3.9 yards per carry this season. More recently, the running back has topped 50 yards just once in his last six games while averaging 36.8 yards per game and averaging just 3.1 yards per carry. Achane is very unlikely to see his role reduced, as while the team has increased Raheem Mostert's role over the last three weeks, he has not shown anything that would give the Dolphins confidence to make the move to more of a committee approach that we saw last season. Part of the issue for the Dolphins has been issues on the offensive line, as Terron Armstead has missed the last two weeks. While he's questionable, it seems a long shot that he's going to be able to play this week, which would mean that rookie Patrick Paul would once again get the start. Paul has been one of the worst run-blockers in the NFL in terms of his limited playing time this season.
How motivated is San Francisco to finish out their last three games? With the absolute turmoil in the building related to De'Vondre Campbell refusing to enter the game, the 6-8 49ers have been struggling, which is not something we're used to seeing. This defense has allowed three 100-yard rushers over their last four games to Kyren Williams, James Cook, and Josh Jacobs. The issue for the 49ers is their defensive line. Both Maliek Collins and Jordan Elliott were significant downgrades from the elite defensive lineman that we've seen in past seasons, while on the edge, Leonard Floyd is playing a significant amount of snaps when he is incapable of stopping the run at this point in his career and is primarily only a pass rusher. If there is good news for the 49ers, it is that they get another week with former All-Pro safety Talanoa Hufanga, who returned in Week 15, along with linebacker Dre Greenlaw. While neither player was outstanding in Week 15, getting another week back from their regular starters should show signs of improvement for this struggling defense.
Green Bay vs New Orleans
While Josh Jacobs has had up and down success in recent weeks, two things continue to be true. He's going to see a lot of volume, and he's going to score a touchdown. Jacobs, over the last five games, has averaged 21.4 carries per game and 1.8 rushing touchdowns. Jacobs is a running back who will depend on volume to get his yardage, as he doesn't have breakaway speed. The good news for Jacobs is that Eman Wilson's role has all but evaporated as he's averaging just two carries per game over the last three weeks and, outside of a 38-10 victory against San Francisco, does not have more than four carries over his last seven games. This team can attack you in so many different ways that their offense can be unpredictable week-to-week, but at the moment, they are committed to running the ball with Jacobs.
New Orleans' stats have looked like this unit is improving as they're allowing just 84 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs since Week 11, which is 18th most in the NFL over that timeframe. However, the competition that the Saints have faced is quite lacking. They've faced Cleveland, Los Angeles Rams (Kyren Williams topped 100 yards), New York Giants, and Washington Commanders, where Jayden Daniels added 64 yards rushing that is not factored in here. This is still a flawed unit with massive holes on the defensive line. The team is forced to continue to play Bryan Bresee at defensive tackle, who the 2023 first-round pick continues to be one of the worst defensive tackles in the NFL, while next to him, Khalen Saunders continues to struggle. The worst part about this defense is that they've been extremely healthy compared to most teams at this point of the season, as the only key player they've lost was Paulson Adebo at corner. While Demario Davis at linebacker continues to be the bright spot on this defense, the Saints are asking a lot out of their almost 36-year-old linebacker to be forced to make so many more tackles than the rest of this defense, as Davis has 104 with the next closest player having just 79.
Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups
Houston at Kansas City
Joe Mixon has been on a yo-yo trend recently, where every other game seems to be one in which he succeeds, while the other games are just complete failures. Over his last five games, Mixon has either had over 100 yards and had over 5.0 yards per carry or failed to top 50 yards and has been under 2.0 yards per carry in each of those three games. This player started the season as one of the most consistent running backs in the NFL, as he had 100-yard games in five of his first six games. Looking deeper into the performances, Mixon has been matchup-dependent, as he's good enough to completely exploit the above-average to great matchups, but he has a running style that gets completely eliminated by some of the best-run defenses in the NFL as his struggles have come against strong defensive lines in Miami, Tennessee, Detroit, with Chicago being the one outlier back in Week 2 in a game that he only had nine carries. This could be another week where the running back struggles to take on the league's best run defense.
Kansas City had arguably their worst performance of the season last week and have all but eliminated themselves from having a chance to break the lowest rushing yards to opposing running back record since Footballguys began tracing the stat back in 2001. Last week, the Chiefs gave up 125 yards and a touchdown to the lowly Browns offense. Overall, it looks bad, but nearly half of those yards came on one play as Jerome Ford broke off a 62-yard touchdown run. Ford was the first player in the 2024 season to top 65 yards against Kansas City, and no player has run for over 100 yards against them since Week 16 of 2023. The Chiefs have the perfect combination of strong cohesion with players on their roster being with the team for multiple seasons, combined with extremely good injury luck, and one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL. Kansas City, led by defensive lineman Chris Jones and linebacker Nick Bolton, has allowed just 63 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, which is still the best in the NFL this season.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore
The Steelers' rushing offense was completely eliminated last week as they fell behind early and largely abandoned the run as neither Najee Harris (6 for 14 yards) nor Jaylen Warren (4 for 12 yards) had any success last week. Harris, this season, has been a consistent low-floor, low-upside type player. Outside of a three-game stretch in which he ran for over 100 yards in three straight games, Harris has averaged just 3.4 yards per carry on the year, while Jaylen Warren's volume has been all over the place, ranging from just two carries to 14 carries and despite being the more explosive runner does not have a carry longer than 20 yards this season. The issue for Pittsburgh continues to be their offensive line. Rookie right guard Mason McCormick and second-year right tackle Broderick Jones have struggled, while rookie center Zach Frazier has shown that he can be a developmental piece for this team but lacks week-to-week consistency, especially against larger defensive linemen, which he'll have to encounter this week in Travis Jones and Michael Pierce In their first matchup, Warren was the far better running back as he ran for 41 yards on nine carries which could be a strategy for Pittsburgh once again to try to get away from the middle of the Baltimore defense.
Baltimore is getting healthy at the right time. They have activated Michael Pierce from IR, which gives them one of the most formidable defensive tackle duos in the NFL as both Pierce and Travis Jones combine to weigh 700 pounds, and Nnamdi Madubuike combine for a 1,000-pound three-man front. This does wonders for both Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton, two of the best run-stoppers at their position in the NFL. Outside of a Week 14 performance from Saquon Barkley, where he ran for 107 yards, no running back has run for over 65 yards against the Ravens all season. The Ravens seem to have made a change at linebacker as Malik Harrison continues to get the snaps from Trenton Simpson, who was dealing with an injury earlier this season. Simpson, who was third on the team in tackles, saw just 7% of snaps last week, as Harrison played 79%. This is largely to help with the pass coverage, as Simpson has struggled in coverage, but it should have a minimal impact because Harrison has been playing well alongside Roquan Smith.
Dallas at Tampa Bay
Rico Dowdle continues to be the surprise of the 2024 season. After Dallas started the year with one of the worst rushing offenses in the NFL, they've now had three consecutive 100-yard performances from Dowdle, as he had 149 yards last week and has a clear path to getting to 1,000 yards. The one caveat to this is to say that the schedule for Dallas has been extraordinarily easy as they've faced Washington, New York Giants, Cincinnati, and Carolina over their last four games, and this week, get one of the hottest run defenses in the NFL. With Zack Martin moved to IR this week, a lot of pressure is going to be put on the offensive line to block Vita Vea and the Tampa Bay defensive line. There is a lot of inexperience on Dallas' defense with a rookie center and left tackle in Cooper Beebe and Tyler Guyton, but right guard Brock Hoffman also has very little experience filling in for Martin as he's only faced those four previously mentioned easy matchups.
Tampa Bay's run defense is starting to look more like the team that we saw back when they won the Super Bowl in 2021. Since Week 10, the Buccaneers have been allowing just 52 rushing yards per game, which is the best in the NFL. They completely shut down Christian McCaffrey and Chuba Hubbard, along with some weaker competition during this stretch with Kimani Vidal, Sincere McCormick, and Tyrone Tracy Jr.. A big reason for the improvement has been the increased playing time of elite run-stopper Vita Vea. Vea had been playing only about 60% of the snaps for most of the season, but over the last couple of weeks is averaging 76% of the snaps along with Kalijah Cancey, who has also seen an uptick in playing time as the team has consolidated their rotation along the defensive line. The Buccaneers recently have also been moving run-stopping safety Jordan Whitehead down into the box and playing three safeties with only one linebacker as they've struggled to find a consistent linebacker alongside Lavonte David this season.
San Francisco at Miami
San Francisco will be limited once again at running back as rookie Isaac Guerendo is unlikely to play this week with a hamstring injury. With no Guerendo, it opens up a vacuum for the running back position. Patrick Taylor Jr. would be the obvious player to get the first shot, given that he had seven carries when Guerendo left in Week 14 due to injury, but this could be a chance for the 49ers to give Israel Abanikanda a look after signing him from the Jets practice squad just two weeks ago. Abanikanda was a 5th-round selection for the Jets in the 2023 draft and is likely more talented than the fourth-year Taylor. It's likely to be a committee approach unless Kyle Shanahan gives us anything prior to the game, but if you're looking for a player with more upside, it certainly would be Abanikanda. The 49ers will be without Trent Williams once again, and it appears that it will likely be a season-ending injury for the left tackle. Backup Jaylon Moore has played as well as you could expect a backup left tackle to play, but losing their leader at the position is a massive downgrade for this offensive line.
Miami continues to impress. After having extremely low expectations to start the season, this is a team that has just progressively gotten better throughout the year. They have not allowed a 100-yard rusher all season and have not allowed a running back to top 75 yards since Week 5. Since Week 6, Miami has allowed just 70 rushing yards per game, which is the third-best in the NFL, trailing only Philadelphia and Kansas City. The interior defensive line is one of the best in football, led by the ageless 38-year-old Calais Campbell and Zach Sieler, who is playing at a Pro Bowl level. Mike McDaniel and defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver have been willing to do whatever it takes to improve this defense as they look to find a linebacker group that works. They've benched Tyrel Dodson after signing him from Seattle and have brought back Anthony Walker Jr. as the starting linebacker now that he has recovered from his hamstring injury. The stalwart at linebacker has been Jordyn Brooks, who has been one of the best run-stopping linebackers in the NFL this season. The team brought him in from Seattle this offseason. If there is an area of concern for the Dolphins, it would be at safety as Jordan Poyer, at age 33, has seen his best football pass him by, while Jevon Holland is having a regression year after an outstanding 2023.
Kansas City vs Houston
So far, since Isiah Pacheco returned, the Chiefs are still committed to a committee approach between Pacheco and Kareem Hunt. With Patrick Mahomes II looking questionable this week, the Chiefs are likely to turn to a run-heavy approach between both running backs. Since Pacheco returned, he's had 37 carries compared to Kareem Hunt's 25. The Chiefs will likely be without D.J. Humphries again this week as he did not practice on Thursday, which would once again push Joe Thuney to left tackle and bring Mike Caliendo in at left guard. Caliendo looked fine last week in his first start, but this player has played very little since being an undrafted free agent in 2022. Relying on him against a much better Houston defense could create some issues on the interior of the offensive line and lead more to a Pacheco-type game this week. If Mahomes plays, this also likely leads to more of a Pacheco game as he provides more of a dynamic playmaker out of the backfield as the Chiefs won't be able to do a lot of the Mahomes rollout-type plays with the quarterback having a high-ankle sprain.
Houston's run defense had high expectations in DeMeco Ryans' second season as head coach. However, they started off the season very slow and were unable to build on their elite run-stopping unit that they had in 2023. However, over the last several weeks, we are starting to see them get back to this level as they're allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs since Week 10, are holding running backs to just 3.9 yards per carry, and outside of a 119-yard performance from Tony Pollard, the team has been able to mostly stop all of the other running backs they've faced. While the team is still without run-stopper Azeez Al-Shaair, who won't be back until Week 18, the team did get good news last week when linebacker Christian Harris returned from injury after suffering a calf injury dating back to July. Harris had eight tackles in his season debut last week and will be looked upon heavily alongside Henry To'oTo'o to stop the run this week.
