Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.
Top 5 Rushing Matchups
Dallas at Carolina
After struggling for most of the season, Dallas has finally found a running game. While benefitting from favorable matchups, Rico Dowdle has been great the last three weeks, as he has averaged 110 rushing yards per game, topping 100 yards in each of his last two games against Cincinnati and the New York Giants. The Cowboys are leaning heavily into their rushing attack with Cooper Rush's inconsistency. Dowdle has at least 18 carries in his last three games, as he previously had more than 12 carries just once in his first nine games of the season. The Cowboys did get some bad news this week as future Hall of Fame guard Zack Martin was placed on IR with an ankle injury, ending the hope that he would return after being injured in Week 11. The offensive line is an inexperienced unit as they're starting two rookies in Cooper Beebe and Tyler Guyton; now, a very inexperienced right guard, Brock Hoffman, will be relied upon for the remainder of the season. Hoffman is a much better run blocker than pass blocker, as most inexperienced players are, so this should be a team that is going to continue to try to run the ball with Dowdle, especially now that Ezekiel Elliott's role has been reduced to just 10% of the snaps over the last two weeks.
What more is there to say about Carolina, as they've been featured in this article nearly every week for the last two seasons? This team is still making a strong effort for coach Dave Canales as the team remains competitive, but their run defense is nonexistent. Over the last two weeks, Carolina has allowed 189 rushing yards per game. On the year, they've now allowed 139 rushing yards per game to the running back position, which is 21 yards more than the second-worst team. It's an impossible situation, as they have the league's worst defensive line as A'Shawn Robinson, Shy Tuttle, Jonathan Harris, and LaBryan Ray are all struggling, but even worse is they likely have the league's worst linebacking unit as well. Third-round rookie Trevin Wallace is not ready to be an every-down player, yet he was thrust into the position due to the injury to Shaq Thompson earlier this year. This unit is simply not going to improve this season and should be a target against them every week.
NY Jets at Jacksonville
With no Breece Hall last week, the Jets took a committee approach with both Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis as Allen was on the field for 54% of the plays while Davis was on the field for 53% as the two were nearly identical with Allen having 11 carries for 43 yards and Davis taking ten carries for 40 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately, this will likely continue for the Jets as Breece Hall appears likely to miss once again this week as he's struggling with a knee injury. Unfortunately, the 3-10 Jets have almost nothing to play for and, therefore, will be evaluating both of their rookie running backs as they try to determine their roster for future seasons. While Breece Hall has not officially been ruled out for this week, if he were to somehow play, it would seem unlikely that he would get his normal share of his 80% of snaps this week.
Jacksonville's run defense seems to be a unit that, while they haven't outright quit, is starting to get close to it. Over the last six weeks, they've allowed all six running backs to top 75 yards, with four topping 100 yards, including the last two games as Joe Mixon and Tony Pollard topped the century mark. This team was built to rush the passer with Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker but has left significant gaps up the middle of the defensive line. Second-round rookie defensive lineman Maason Smith has struggled, as has Davon Hamilton, who, after his 2023 season, probably shouldn't be relied upon to be an every-down starter for an NFL team and likely won't be in 2025. The strength of this defense has been their linebackers, as Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd have both been good this season. Still, it is largely an uphill battle as all the responsibility falls on those two players as the Jaguars have significant issues at safety with veteran Darnell Savage and second-year Antonio Johnson both struggling.
Minnesota vs Chicago
The Vikings rushing offense has been extremely volatile over the last two weeks. While Aaron Jones had 73 rushing yards and a touchdown last week, he had just 13 carries last week and 5 carries the week before in a win against Arizona. Minnesota seems to be limiting Jones' carries to keep him fresh for the playoffs, as Cam Akers has taken a larger role in this offense, averaging seven carries per game over the last five weeks compared to Jones' 14.4. We've started to see the Minnesota passing offense hit its full potential as they've thrown for 330 yards or more in two of their last three games, which, if that continues to have success, will limit the rushing upside. However, Jones is the type of player who can get hot and have a 20-carry performance almost any week, as he's done three times this season, including in Week 13 against Chicago, in which he topped 100 yards and a touchdown. Left tackle Cam Robinson is starting to play better after being a mid-season acquisition for the Vikings due to the Christian Darrisaw injury earlier this season and if they can
The Bears had a significant letdown performance after their strong Thanksgiving day game, when they were extremely close to pulling off the comeback upset over the 49ers. With the firing of Matt Eberflus, this looked like a defense that was in complete disarray, with Eric Washington now calling the plays. The Bears are now allowing 5.0 yards per carry per game over the course of the season and 5.2 since Week 8. Since Week 8, Chicago has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and the second-most rushing yards, and while only two running backs have topped 100 yards, seven have topped 70. The issue for Chicago continues to be at the linebacker position. Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards have regressed and were supposed to be a strength heading into 2024. Along the defensive line, Chicago has some pieces they can build around, such as Gervon Dexter Sr, who is having a nice season, while Montez Sweat continues to be an anchor for this team and is incredibly consistent.
Denver vs Indianapolis
There may be a shift in Denver as they come off of the bye this week. Jaleel McLaughlin led the team with 14 carries for 84 yards. This is at a time when Javonte Williams is struggling. Williams has just 12 carries over his last two games and has a total of negative one yards. The Broncos could also look towards rookie Audric Estime, who has looked promising, albeit in a limited role, as he's only been on the field for more than 25% of snaps one time this season. It seems this could likely be a game where Javonte Williams gets the first snaps of the game, but if he struggles again, he could quickly lose his job. McLaughlin's upside is relatively limited based on being an undersized player at just 5-7 and 180 pounds, so he will certainly have a significant role, but it's difficult to see him having more than the 14 carries he had before the bye, so any loss of Williams' workload would likely go to Estime this week.
Indianapolis' run defense has been a unique one all season. This team allows consistent production but recently has managed to avoid the massive performances that can just wreck a team's season. On the year, the Colts allow the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs, the second-most rushing yards per game, and have allowed seven of the last eight running backs to top 70 yards against them, with none of those seven topping 102 yards. While the defensive line is good for Indianapolis, there are significant questions, particularly at the linebacker position. Zaire Franklin and E.J. Speed simply have not made enough plays at or behind the line of scrimmage, as while their overall tackle numbers are good, Franklin has 135 tackles and has just one non-sack tackle for loss all season. At safety, Nick Cross has been a great last line of defense for the Colts, especially after the first two weeks in which the Colts gave up 150 yards to both Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs, but he's being forced to make too many tackles as he's second amongst all safeties.
Tennessee vs Cincinnati
Tony Pollard's season has been a rollercoaster in 2024. Over the last seven games, he has either had 20 or more carries or ten or fewer carries each week. Ultimately, this makes it incredibly difficult to trust him as the team wants to run the ball, but the second things start going poorly, and they quickly abandon the run. This week, Pollard is questionable for Week 15 with an ankle injury, as he did not practice on Wednesday. If he cannot go, we could finally get to see Tyjae Spears get his opportunity to make his first start in the NFL. Spears is a 2023 third-round pick from Tulane who has shown glimpses of potentially being an every-down running back as he provides value as both a running back and a receiver. If Pollard can go, his success will almost entirely depend on whether the Titans can keep this game close against the Bengals. In all but one of the games that he had 20 or more carries, the Titans either won or lost by less than a touchdown. The only game they lost by more than a touchdown when he had 20 carries was a 52-14 blowout loss to Detroit in which Tyjae Spears was out and Mason Rudolph was starting at quarterback.
Cincinnati's entire defense is struggling, but it hit a new low point last week after Rico Dowdle ran for 131 yards on 18 carries on Monday Night. Losing Logan Wilson in Week 11 was a massive injury for the Bengals as replacement linebacker Akeem Davis-Gaither has struggled in the two weeks. Wilson may be the game's best pure run-stopper. Without him, the injury has also exposed the flaws that the Bengals have at safety as veteran Vonn Bell looks past his prime, and Geno Stone has become one of the worst safeties in the NFL after leaving Baltimore. Along the defensive line, Trey Hendrickson can only do so much. The interior of the defensive line has struggled, especially with second-round rookie Kris Jenkins Jr. While it's a small sample size, the Bengals have allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs over the last two weeks. They are allowing 5.6 yards per carry while also allowing running backs to have 82 receiving yards per game.
Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups
NY Giants vs Baltimore
The Giants rushing offense is a complete mess. After Tyrone Tracy Jr. had shown promise earlier this season, he's failed to top 50 yards in each of his last three games despite favorable matchups against New Orleans and Dallas. Defenses are largely just eliminating the Giants' rushing offense and daring Drew Lock or Tommy DeVito to beat them. The Giants will be going back to DeVito this week as Lock is dealing with a heel injury, but it does not really matter for this rushing offense as neither quarterback sparks any fear into opposing defenses. The offensive line is also an issue for the Giants. Coming into last week, they were already the worst offensive line in the NFL, according to Matt Bitonti, but they saw Jermaine Eluemunor and Chris Hubbard both miss last week and were down to their fourth-string left tackle Joshua Ezeudu due to the Andrew Thomas season-ending injury earlier this year. At left guard, they also lost Jon Runyan mid-game and center John Michael Schmitz Jr. Runyan is being called week-to-week, which almost certainly means he won't play this week, while Schmitz and Eluemunor were limited participants on Wednesday.
After a much-needed bye, Baltimore is starting to get healthy as they prepare for a playoff run. The Ravens will likely get Michael Pierce back from IR, giving them the 1,000-pound three-headed trio of 340-pound Travis Jones, 360-pound Michael Pierce, and 305-pound Nnamdi Madubuike. Pierce and Jones, in particular, are elite run-stoppers, making it almost impossible to get past them or move them out of the way, which just frees space for two of the best run-stoppers at their position in four-time All-Pro Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton, who was First-Team All-Pro last year in just his second NFL season. The Ravens should also get Kyle Van Noy back this week, who will provide support on the outside contain runs.
Cleveland vs Kansas City
Since returning from injury, Nick Chubb has not looked like the same player he was earlier in his career. Chubb is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry and has not had a carry longer than 20 yards all season. The Browns have been very conservative when it comes to his return, as Jerome Ford has outsnaped Chubb in four of the five games, and Ford is the better pass blocker and receiver at this point. Both running backs are low-upside type players, as Cleveland has not had a 100-yard rusher since Week 10 of last season. The offensive line for Cleveland continues to be a problem. Left tackle Jed Wills was placed on IR, the fifth offensive lineman to be placed on IR this season. Left guard Joel Bitonio did not practice on Wednesday due to a back injury, as he's been fighting injuries all season. With a 3-10 record, how motivated the Browns will be against the 12-1 Chiefs will be a major question this week.
Kansas City continues to flirt with record watch. They're allowing 58 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, which is the best since the 2019 Buccaneers, who allowed 57 rushing yards per game to the position, with 56 being the record since Footballguys tracked the stat back to 2001, which was set by the 2018 Saints. Kansas City has the perfect combination of the fear that Patrick Mahomes II puts in opposing offenses, thinking they need to throw the ball more than they do, combined with a truly elite run-stopping unit that has significant cohesion due to their overall continuity having kept much of the team intact through multiple seasons. The Chiefs are led by elite defensive lineman Chris Jones, who can line at any position along the defensive line, creating and taking advantage of mismatches. Meanwhile, defensive tackle Mike Pennel, at 335 pounds, has become a very good space eater, preventing linemen from getting to the Chiefs' primary run-stoppers in Nick Bolton and Justin Reid. Steve Spagnuolo's heavy blitz scheme makes it even more difficult to run the ball against often an overmatched offensive line.
Buffalo at Detroit
Josh Allen may have clinched the MVP last week after his superhuman performance, throwing for 342 yards and three touchdowns while also rushing for 82 yards and 3 touchdowns despite the 44-42 loss to Los Angeles. Besides Allen, the Bills largely stayed away from the rushing attack as James Cook had just six carries, which was the lowest on the season and just the third time that Cook had less than 10 carries, with the other two games being against the top two run defenses in the NFL in Baltimore and Kansas City. The issue for Buffalo is that they were just playing catchup the entire game against the Rams, and leaning on Josh Allen was their best path to victory. The Bills are the type of team that is flexible enough to take advantage of your weaknesses, and this week, it could lead to them leaning on Josh Allen again as they're facing a very difficult run defense in Detroit.
While Josh Jacobs had a big fantasy week last week against Detroit, it was almost entirely due to his three touchdowns. On the day, Jacobs had just 66 yards on 18 carries and was largely bottled up for most of the day despite the Lions' injuries along the defense. Detroit has not allowed a 100-yard rusher all season, is third in rushing yards allowed to opposing running backs, and is second in fewest fantasy points allowed to the position. The good news for Detroit is that they will likely get DJ Reader back at defensive tackle this week, which should further solidify their elite run-stopping status after Reader missed Week 13. This defensive unit may have gotten better despite losing Alex Anzalone and Malcolm Rodriguez as linebackers, as they replaced them with Kwon Alexander, who the Lions stole off of the Broncos practice squad. At this point in his career, Alexander is a liability in pass coverage but remains an elite run-stopper. At safety, the Lions have the best duo in the NFL, Kirby Joseph and Brian Branch. They can line up anywhere on the field, creating havoc for opposing defenses. This is a true three-tiered unit with elite players at all three levels.
Indianapolis at Denver
Jonathan Taylor has been struggling over the last three weeks. Despite somewhat favorable matchups against New England and the New York Jets, he averaged 24.5 carries for just 76.5 yards and just 3.1 yards per carry over the last three weeks. The issue for Indianapolis has been that teams are not respecting Anthony Richardson's passing ability, which has teams stacking the box, combined with offensive line issues for the Colts. Along the offensive line, the Colts may be getting healthier as they're likely to get four-time Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly back this week after he has been out since Week 9. This should greatly help Taylor and this run game as the team also got left tackle Bernhard Raimann back in Week 13, and while they're still starting backups on the right side of the line, the left side is back to its full health along with Quenton Nelson at left guard. At 6-7, the Colts are a team that needs to win out to have a chance at the playoffs, and they will need to get their running game going with Taylor for it to happen.
The job that Vance Joseph has done with the Broncos defense is remarkable. This is a unit that most NFL fans could not name very many players on the defensive side of the ball. Still, it's an extremely well-coached team, allowing just 78 rushing yards per game, which is fourth in the NFL. Since Week 10, they're allowing just 53 yards per game, which is second in the NFL. While they haven't faced a gauntlet of running backs during that time, they shut down Nick Chubb, Bijan Robinson, Sincere McCormick, and Kareem Hunt, as none of those players topped 41 yards. The key to this defense has been that they've been lucky with health but have had some key players emerge, such as Brandon Jones and Cody Barton. Mostly, they have not had any major flaws in their defense and are running a strong scheme. Cody Barton leads the team in tackles but is 49th in the NFL in tackles, just indicating how they're getting production from their entire defense rather than depending on one elite run-stopper.
Seattle vs Green Bay
Zach Charbonnet had a career week this past week with Ken Walker III out. Charbonnet had 22 carries for 134 yards and two touchdowns while adding seven receptions for 59 yards, both of which were career highs. This week, Ken Walker III is again questionable with a calf injury that the team is designating him as day-to-day, but he did not practice on Wednesday. If he does not play, the expectations for Charbonnet will be extremely high. While the upside is certainly there, there is some caution here as this is a player who did not have a carry longer than 13 yards all season, yet he had a 51-yard run, a 15-yard run, and a 22-yard run to account for 88 of his 134 yards. While you certainly can't ignore these big plays, the question is whether they are predictable for a running back who, in his first 183 carries in his career, had just two carries longer than 15 yards and nothing longer than 23 yards, yet in his last 22 carries has three carries of 15 yards or more.
Green Bay's run defense has quietly improved to one of the best in the NFL over the last several weeks. Having faced a gauntlet of running backs in David Montgomery/Jahmyr Gibbs, De'Von Achane, Christian McCaffrey, D'Andre Swift, and Montgomery/Gibbs again, the Packers have not allowed any of these players to top 75 yards over the last five games. This is a unit that has improved significantly as early on in the season. They were amongst the worst in the NFL at stopping the run, as they allowed 90 yards or more to running backs in five of their first seven games. A big reason for the transformation of this defense has been Isaiah McDuffie, who has been a tackle machine since the team went to McDuffie once Edgerrin Cooper went out. McDuffie has 25 tackles over the last two games, and having that consistent tackler has also taken the pressure off of All-Pro safety Xavier McKinney, which has greatly improved his game. Green Bay tries to mirror the Ravens by having two large defensive tackles in Kenny Clark and T.J. Slaton. While they're not even close to the talent of the Ravens duo, this is still a space-eating unit that allows for the freedom of movement for the linebackers and safeties.
