Go here for this week's Passing Matchups.
Top 5 Rushing Matchups
Philadelphia vs Carolina
Last week, Saquon Barkley proved that he is matchup-proof. Facing one of the league's best run-stopping units in Baltimore, Barkley had 107 rushing yards, which was the first time this season that a running back had topped 100 yards against Baltimore. Barkley needs to average 100.2 rushing yards per game to get to 2,000 for the season and 121.2 yards to break Eric Dickerson's 2,105 rushing yards. While the Eagles have the league's best running back, they also have the league's best offensive line. Led by the tackles Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson, this frees up so much of the off-tackle rushing attack that the Eagles try to do behind these two. The Eagles have been extremely fortunate with health, as while Mailata missed a little bit of time, this has been a mostly healthy unit, which is a big reason the team is 10-2 in the season. We have seen the Eagles reduce Jalen Hurts' rushing numbers as of late, as Hurts is averaging just 9.5 carries per game over the last four games compared to 10.8 over his first eight games.
Carolina continues to play hard for coach Dave Canales in his first season, but they're just a unit that has by far the lowest talent level in the NFL on their defense. The Panthers allow 138 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, which is the most in the NFL by 20 yards, as the next closest team has allowed just 118 rushing yards to the position. Last week, the Panthers allowed 228 yards to Bucky Irving and Rachaad White as Tampa Bay ran the ball 36 times en route to victory. Three running backs over the last four games have topped 100 yards, as this defense just has not improved this season. The issue for the Panthers has been up the middle. The team desperately misses Derrick Brown, who was placed on IR back in Week 1, as Deshawn Williams, Shy Tuttle, A'Shawn Robinson, and LaBryan Ray all make up the weakest defensive line in football. As a linebacker, the team does not get much help either, as they have not been able to find a leader on this defense since the loss of Shaq Thompson. Rookie Trevin Wallace has been thrown into a starting position, which is something he has not looked ready for, while Josey Jewell, who is not a great tackler and primarily a weak-side linebacker, has now been forced into the strong side, being the primary tackler for most plays. This unit is a veteran-filled room of journeyman-type players. Bmprovement this late in the season seems unlikely.
New Orleans at NY Giants
Offensively, the Saints have been absolutely decimated by injuries. This season, the Saints have lost Chris Olave, Taysom Hill, Rashid Shaheed, and Kendre Miller, along with elite right tackle Ryan Ramcyzk. The only consistent offensive weapon that the Saints have left is Alvin Kamara. Over the last four weeks, the Saints are heavily utilizing Kamara, as he's averaging 26 touches per game. With Hill getting injured last week, this number may need to increase to be as many as Kamara can physically handle, as Hill was averaging ten touches per game over the last four weeks. The Saints did get some good news this week in that it appears that their offensive line is going to get some help as Eric McCoy and Lucas Patrick both had a limited practice on Wednesday and would be critical as they are likely going to be without the right Cesar Ruiz who suffered a concussion last week and left guard Nick Saldiveri who is dealing with a knee injury as neither practiced on Wednesday. The Saints will need to heavily leverage Kamara in both the running and passing game, which should be a very favorable matchup this week.
The Giants' defense has completely reverted to the defense we saw early on in the season after showing signs that they had improved it over the middle portion. Since Week 8, the Giants have allowed 136 rushing yards per game and 1.2 touchdowns per game to opposing running backs, which is fourth in the NFL. This defense has allowed 100-yard games to Najee Harris, Chuba Hubbard, and Rico Dowdle since Week 8 while allowing a combined 100 yards to Tampa Bay and Washington's committees. The Giants suffered a devastating injury last week to All-Pro defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence II. This was an injury that they just could not afford to lose, as he was the only defensive lineman who was consistently making plays. Without Lawrence, the Giants will have the worst defensive lines in the NFL for the remainder of the season as D.J. Davidson, Jordon Riley, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, and undrafted rookie Elijah Chatman have not shown any ability to stop the run. The Giants' weak linebacking unit is not helping matters. Micah McFadden had a strong start to the season, but his play has completely fallen off back to his career below-average levels while the team may be without linebacker Bobby Okereke this week and be forced to start sixth-round rookie Darius Muasau, which would be an issue for the Giants this week.
Tennessee vs Jacksonville
Tony Pollard's inconsistency has been extremely frustrating. After having 24 carries in Week 12, Pollard went back to having just eight carries in Week 13. Pollard now has ten or fewer carries in three of his last four games, as the team has shown that they will be quick to abandon the run the moment they fall behind in a game. The good news this week is that it seems unlikely that the Titans will lose by ten or more, which they've done in all three of Pollard's sub-ten carry games as they take on the Mac Jones-led Jaguars. The Titans' season overall has been disappointing. They continue to have massive offensive line issues despite investing heavily in two first-round picks over the last two seasons in JC Latham and Peter Skoronski and bringing in offensive line guru Bill Callahan.
Jacksonville's run defense has completely fallen off a cliff in recent weeks. Since Week 8, Jacksonville has allowed a league-leading 147 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, as Joe Mixon, Saquon Barkley, and Josh Jacobs have all topped 100 yards. This defensive line invested heavily in rushing the passer with Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker, but the interior of the defensive line has issues. Defensive linemen Tyler Lacy and DaVon Hamilton have not been able to keep linemen from getting downfield this season. While the linebackers from the Jaguars are solid with Foyesade Oluokun and Devin Lloyd, the safeties are an issue as they're spending most of their time focused on pass defense which the Jaguars have also struggled with this season. Andre Cisco and Darnell Savage are two veteran safeties, but schematically, the team is prioritizing ensuring that they can help in pass coverage more than run defense, which can set up big plays for opponents of the Jaguars.
Buffalo at LA Rams
James Cook and the Buffalo rushing offense have largely been matchup-dependent this season. In good matchups, they're going to find success, but in some of the more difficult matchups, they're going to be shut down. Over the last four games, James Cook has faced San Francisco (Good), Kansas City (Bad), Indianapolis (Good), and Miami (Bad). Cook averaged 93.5 rushing yards in those two good matchups, while he averaged just 32 rushing yards in the two bad ones. The Bills will exploit weaknesses, taking the easiest path of victory instead of forcing their style of football regardless of the matchup.
The Rams' run defense is facing some important questions this week. They started the year as one of the worst run-stopping units in football but had improved significantly from Weeks 5 to 10 as they allowed just 78 rushing yards per game, the fifth-best in the NFL. However, this defense has been torched over the last three games, allowing 161 rushing yards per game, which is the worst in the NFL. The big question that the Rams will need to answer is whether this has been a scheduling issue as they've faced Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara, and Rhamondre Stevenson or if this defense has regressed. The answer is likely both, as the team has relied more heavily on Omar Speights at linebacker since Week 10 due to the injury to veteran Troy Reeder. The Rams are also schematically trying to figure out how to rotate their defensive line to stop the run. We've seen second-round rookie Braden Fiske see an uptick in playing time over the last three weeks, which, while it helps their pass rush, Fiske struggles with consistently stopping the run.
San Francisco vs Chicago
San Francisco lost Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason for the remainder of the season as they were injured in the snow game against Buffalo last week. San Francisco is now down to fourth-string Isaac Guerendo after the team lost Elijah Mitchell for the year in the preseason. Guerendo is a fourth-round rookie with all the physical tools at 220 pounds and ran a 4.33 40-yard dash at the combine. The problem is that he's never been a primary running back since high school. Despite being a 4th-round pick, he was a career backup in college at Wisconsin and Louisville. We did see a glimpse of Guerendo against Dallas earlier this season, as Mason left due to injury. In that game, Guerendo had 85 yards on 14 carries and looked like a solid running back. However, there are still big questions for a player who was supposed to be a developmental player and is now going to be starting the next five games. The team also signed Israel Abanikanda to provide depth along with Patrick Taylor Jr.
The Bears' run defense has completely fallen apart, and now, with the firing of defensive head coach and play caller Matt Eberflus, how will this team react to Eric Washington calling the plays? Since Week 8, Chicago has allowed 139 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, which is third in the NFL. They're allowing a staggering 5.1 yards per carry, and every starting running back they've faced has topped at least 70 yards. The issue for the Bears is that they heavily rely on a linebacking unit that has seen its play significantly fall off compared to 2023. Both Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards are having one of the worst seasons in their career when it comes to stopping the run. Schematically, the Bears have elected to largely play in a Nickel formation, as Jack Sanborn is only on the field for about 15-20% of the plays this season after being on the field for about 40% last year. At 4-8 on the season, how the Bears defense will respond to the turmoil after a heartbreaking loss last week to the Lions is a big question, and how will this new coaching staff keep the team motivated for the remainder of the season?
Bottom 5 Rushing Matchups
LA Chargers at Kansas City
With no J.K. Dobbins, the Chargers rushing offense went about as badly as expected last week. Gus Edwards had six carries for 32 yards, while Kimani Vidal had just four for 20 yards. The team struggled to get anything going against Atlanta, running just 46 total plays last week, as Atlanta dominated the time of possession. Dobbins, who was placed on IR, will be out for at least the next three games, meaning we will be stuck with this low-upside committee once again this week. The good news here is that we shouldn't expect a team to only run 46 plays every week, so the volume should almost certainly increase for Edwards, who was on the field for 52% of plays compared to Vidal's 26%. Still, even if Edwards can get up to 10-12 carries per game, he's largely going to be touchdown-dependent to be fantasy-relevant this week due to his 3.4 yards per carry and just two receptions all season. The good news for the Chargers is that they have developed into one of the better offensive lines this season as the team has invested heavily into the line with left tackle Rashawn Slater and first-round rookie Joe Alt at right tackle.
For the first time all season, the Chiefs allowed a team to top 100 rushing yards last week as the surprise combination of Sincere McCormick and Ameer Abdullah ran for 103 yards against Kansas City. McCormick ran for 64 yards, which was the most of any running back and only the third running back to top 50 yards against the Chiefs this season. While a surprising result, the fact that we are talking about a running back having 64 yards as the best performance of the season shows how dominant this defense has been. On the year, the Chiefs allow 58 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, which is just off the pace compared to the 2019 Buccaneers, who allowed 57 per game. This veteran unit has strong cohesion, with most of the defense being in Steve Spagnuolo's system for multiple seasons. Led by All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones, he unlocks so much of what the Chiefs are trying to do as he makes the players around him better due to the attention he draws from opposing defenses. At linebacker, Nick Bolton continues to be a run-stopping specialist for the Chiefs, while at safety, Justin Reid and Bryan Cook are excellent run-stoppers making a big play against this defense almost impossible. This is the gold standard when it comes to stopping the run, and it is a big reason why the Chiefs are 11-1 this season.
Green Bay at Detroit
Josh Jacobs was unable to build off of his 26 carries, 106 yards, three touchdown performance in Week 12, as he struggled against the Dolphins in Week 13. Last week was an outlier performance as Jacobs failed to top 50 yards for just the second time all season, rushing for just 43 yards on 19 carries. For the most part, Jacobs has been extremely consistent as he's consistently finishing between 60-95 yards each and every week with three 100+ performances and just two 50 or below performances. Averaging 4.5 yards per carry, we've seen Jacobs' volume start to increase as he's averaged 20.2 carries over the last five weeks compared to 18.5 in his first seven games. The committee threat of Emmanuel Wilson is largely nonexistent, as the only time that he has more than five carries over the last seven weeks has been in garbage time performances, with the Packers having a large 20+ lead.
The fact that Detroit has been able to sustain as many injuries as possible and still be an elite run-stopping unit speaks to Aaron Glenn's system, as well as the depth that this team has built. At some point, injuries will be a problem as the team lost linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez for the season last week, and this week against the Packers, the Lions will be without three key defensive linemen. Most notably, D.J. Reeder, but they'll also be without Josh Paschal and Levi Onwuzurike. This unit still has elite run-stoppers at every level, as Alim McNeil and Za'Darius Smith on the defensive line. Jack Campbell is the lone linebacker left on this team but is still a very good run-stopper, and the Lions still have the best safety duo in the NFL with Brian Branch and Kirby Joseph. During the year, this team has allowed just 66 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, and amazingly, they've been able to sustain the high level of play with as many injuries as they've had so far. However, this defense likely would not be able to play at this level if they suffered any additional injuries, particularly to McNeil or Campbell, as they're already decimated at the defensive line and linebacker positions.
Atlanta at Minnesota
Despite dealing with the committee all season with Tyler Allgeier, we're starting to see signs that Bijan Robinson has taken over this offense and can be more reliably trusted throughout the remainder of the season. Robinson has at least 75% of the snaps for the Falcons in five of the last six games, and over the last six weeks, he has averaged 18.5 carries per game compared to 13.7 carries per game over his first six games. Robinson has at least 20 carries in two of his last three games, including a 26-carry performance last week against the Chargers. With Kirk Cousins and the passing offense struggling, expect the Falcons to continue to turn to Robinson over the last five weeks as every game from this point forward is a critical one for the Falcons as they're tied with Tampa Bay at the top of the NFC South.
Since Week 9, Minnesota's run defense has emerged as one of the best in the NFL, as they're allowing a league-best 49 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs in that timeframe. Minnesota did not allow a running back to the top 70 yards in that timeframe as they shut down James Conner, D'Andre Swift, Tony Pollard, Travis Etienne Jr., and Jonathan Taylor. This is a combination of a very good run-stopping unit and a funnel defense as the Vikings' pass defense continues to struggle, and teams are looking to throw the ball against Minnesota rather than try to run the ball against them. One area of concern for the Vikings is the loss of Ivan Pace Jr. in Week 12. While it has yet to have an impact, Pace is an elite run-stopping specialist, which has forced the Vikings to get creative defensively. They're primarily playing three safeties at all times, as it is a strength of this run defense, with veterans Harrison Smith, Camryn Bynum, and Joshua Metellus developing into one of the league's best run-stoppers. This is another unit that has overcome injuries, as almost all teams have had to do at this point in the season, but it would be one injury away from struggling to continue to play at such a high level if linebacker Blake Cashman or Metellus were to get injured.
Carolina at Philadelphia
Since coming off of the 153-yard performance in Munich against the Giants, Chuba Hubbard has averaged just 50.5 rushing yards per game over the last two weeks. While the 58-yard performance against Kansas City was respectable, given how elite their defense has been all season, last week's result was concerning for Hubbard. Carolina ran the ball just 12 times with their starting running back for 43 yards against a Tampa defense that had been struggling as they instead took to a pass-heavy approach, throwing the ball 46 times in the overtime loss as Dave Canales faced his former team for the first time last week. The other concern for Hubbard is that the team has started to bring second-round rookie Jonathon Brooks into a committee after he missed most of the season due to injury. Brooks had six carries for 18 yards last week, and as the season progresses, the Panthers will likely want to continue to get the rookie some playing time as they evaluate their roster for next season. Hubbard has already seen most of his receiving upside evaporate as he is averaging just 1.5 receptions over his last six games compared to 3.7 over his first six games. If his rushing volume also declines, this player will likely struggle to make a fantasy impact over the remainder of the season.
Philadelphia's run defense has faced a difficult last two games, taking on Derrick Henry and Kyren Williams, but for the most part, has held up against the strong rushing attacks. Last week, the Eagles held Henry to just 82 yards on 19 carries, as no running back has topped 100 yards against the Eagles all season. This team is a nightmare to deal with along the defensive line. They've mostly stayed healthy all year, except for Brandon Graham, but there are no holes to exploit in Philadelphia, as Howie Roseman has built one of the league's best defenses, mostly through the draft. Along the defensive line, the investments of Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith Jr., and Milton Williams have all been great picks, while at linebacker, Nakobe Dean is turning into an elite run-stopper. However, no story could be told about the Eagles without mentioning Zack Baun. Baun was signed to a one-year $1.6M offseason after struggling in New Orleans throughout his rookie contract. The Eagles signed him, and now he's extremely likely to be First-Team All-Pro as he's been dominant. Baun has 118 tackles, which is fourth in the NFL, with 74 being solo tackles. He's playing behind an elite defensive line, and his play is one of the great reclamation stories of 2024.
NY Jets at Miami
The Jets are an absolute mess of a team, so the season could finish out in unpredictable ways. Breece Hall does not appear healthy, given his performance last week, which saw him on the field for just 62% of plays compared to his normal 80%. Despite being on the field for 62% of plays, he saw just 12 carries and did not catch a pass, as he was targeted just once. Hall missed practice on Wednesday with a knee injury, and while interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich was optimistic that he would play on Sunday, there is a chance that they will shut the running back down with their 3-9 season until he is fully healthy. Rookie Braelon Allen has seen his role decrease since earlier this season, but the Jets likely need to figure out what they have in Allen, who at times has shown glimpses of being a capable running back and at other times shown that you probably want to bring in another guy this offseason. The Jets already have one of the league's worst offensive lines as they're ranked 31st by Footballguys Matt Bitonti. Further, there could be issues this week as tackle Morgan Moses and guard Alijah Vera-Tucker did not practice on Wednesday, while tackle Olu Fashanu was a limited participant. If any of these players miss, this is already an injury-filled offensive line that could become even worse this week.
The Dolphins run defense has become one of the most improved units in the NFL this season. Since Week 8, Miami has allowed just 67 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs as they've completely shut down Josh Jacobs, Rhamondre Stevenson, Alexander Mattison, Kyren Williams, James Cook, and James Conner. Only Kyren Williams, who had 62 yards, has topped 60 against this defense in the last six games. The key to the improvement of this defense has been the interior of the defensive line. Calais Campbell, at age 38, is playing at a Pro Bowl caliber, as is veteran Zach Sieler right next to Campbell. These two have made it extremely difficult to run up the middle against this defense, which has enabled linebacker Jordyn Brooks to have the best season of his career. The Dolphins did sign Tyrel Dodson after being released from Seattle. Dodson was one of the best linebackers in 2023 but has struggled this season with consistency. We've seen other instances where it takes a linebacker a couple of games to really start to make an impact, which, if they can get any resemblance of the 2023 Tyrel Dodson, this team would have further room for improvement to become a top-tier run-stopping unit.
