This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not considered, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchups
WR Ja'Marr Chase (CIN vs PIT) vs Donte Jackson
Pittsburgh has struggled against perimeter receivers this season and is currently allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to the position. The last time this duo matched up, Chase had 6 catches for 86 yards and a touchdown. Jackson is currently allowing 0.30 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 17% of the time. Chase has played on a whole other level as the Bengals try to earn the last playoff spot in the AFC. He has averaged 8 catches per game and has 9 touchdowns over the past 2 months. Give the advantage to Chase with a lot on the line for both teams this week.
WR Tee Higgins (CIN vs PIT) vs Joey Porter Jr.
Higgins will find himself in the same position as Chase on the other side of the field this week. Porter Higgins finished with 5 catches for 69 yards and a touchdown with Porter in coverage. Both teams have a lot to play for with Pittsburgh trying to win the division title and Cincinnati trying to secure the last wild card playoff spot. Porter Jr. is currently allowing 0.31 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 20% of the time. Pittsburgh has not done well in man coverage over the past 8 weeks but continues to play it to give their defensive line a chance to get to the quarterback: Advantage Higgins and Chase against the Pittsburgh perimeter corners this week.
WR Drake London (ATL vs CAR) vs Jaycee Horn
Even with the change at quarterback, London registered just his second 100-yard game of the season last week against Washington. This week, he gets a great matchup with Horn projected to shadow him through the game. Horn currently allows 0.34 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 19% of the time. The young corner did not fare well against Mike Evans last week and has another tough matchup this week. Look for Atlanta to exploit this matchup as they try to win their division for their only path to the playoffs.
WR Mike Evans (TB vs NO) vs Kool-Aid McKinstry
There is a lot of incentive for Tampa Bay this week but not much for New Orleans, which has struggled through injuries and is limping to the finish line. Evans is attempting to cap off another 1,000-yard season and has several incentives to try and hit on top of Tampa Bay fighting to win the division and make the playoffs. McKinstry has stepped in and played admirably but is still giving up 0.23 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 15% of the time. Look for Evans to easily reach his milestone this week and for Tampa Bay to beat the Saints.
WR Calvin Ridley (TEN vs HOU) vs Jeff Okudah
Okudah returned to the lineup from injury and did not look good in his first start. He currently allows 0.81 fantasy points per coverage snap and was targeted 29% of the time. Houston was embarrassed by the Ravens the last time they played, and despite not having many playoff seeding scenarios to play for, they are projected to play their starters this week. Ridley has been boom-or-bust most of the season and is in a prime spot to have a big game this week.
TE Mark Andrews (BAL vs CLE)
After the slow start to the season, Andrews has been one of the most consistent tight ends in the league. He has a touchdown in every game over the past 5 weeks and is averaging 14.7 fantasy points. Cleveland has allowed just under 10 points per game since week 11 and has nothing to play for except a spoiler this week. Andrews recently beat them for 14.6 points and should be considered a top 5 start at TE this week.
TE Sam LaPorta (DET vs MIN)
After forgetting how to play football earlier this year, LaPorta has shown glimpses of the elite tight end he was last season. He has 4 touchdowns in the past five weeks and no fewer than 4 catches per game in the past month. The Vikings held him to a single catch for 25 yards back in October, but things have changed drastically since then. Both teams are fighting for the division crown and No. 1 overall seed this week. Look for LaPorta to continue his touchdown streak and put up big numbers against a Vikings defense that allows a lot of yards.
Unfavorable Matchups
WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARZ vs SF) vs Renardo Green
Both teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, are playing for divisional pride, and are looking toward next season. Harrison has not played as well as other rookie receivers this season and has a tough matchup to close things out. The 49ers have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers over the past 8 weeks with Green allowing 0.29 fantasy points per coverage snap and being targeted 19% of the time. Kyler Murray struggles to find Harrison at times, and both players will need to work on their chemistry in the offseason.
WR Jerry Jeudy (CLE vs BAL) vs Nate Wiggins
Cleveland has struggled all around this season due to injuries and ineffective play. The lone bright spot has been Jeudy ascending to their No. 1 receiver. However, this week, he has a tough matchup against Wiggins on the outside. The standout corner currently allows 0.22 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 17% of the time. The saving grace for Jeudy may be sheer volume with all of the injuries around him, but temper overall expectations this week.
WR Brandin Cooks (DAL vs WAS) vs Marshon Lattimore
It would be easy to assume Cooks would get a big boost in targets with CeeDee Lamb out for the rest of the season. However, that has not been the case, and the Dallas offense has played worse in the past two weeks than almost any other stretch in the season. Cooper Rush has regressed, and no receiver is a viable starter in this offense. Mix in how well Lattimore is playing, 0.19 fantasy points per coverage snap, and being targeted 12% of the time, and the entire Dallas offense should be avoided. Look for Washington to close out strong as they head to the playoffs.
WR DeAndre Hopkins (KC vs DEN) vs Patrick Surtain II
Kansas City has no reason to play any starter this week who does not want to play. No word has been said about the availability of Hopkins, but the matchup with Surtain and having Carson Wentz at quarterback should be more than enough to avoid Hopkins. Surtain currently allows 0.15 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 12% of the time. Denver is fighting to win the last playoff spot in the AFC and will look to take advantage of a KC team resting most of their starters. Do not start any receivers from KC this week in a tough matchup against Denver and without Patrick Mahomes II under center.
WR Malik Nabers (NYG vs PHI) vs Quinyon Mitchell
Philadelphia is another team projected to rest a lot of their starters this week on offense. The defense has played extremely well over the last two months, aside from a hiccup against Washington a few weeks ago. Mitchell has been elite on the outside, so it will be standout rookie against standout rookie this week. Nabers registered 4 catches for 41 yards when these teams last met, and Mitchell currently allows 0.22 fantasy points per coverage snap. The target share is too high to bench Nabers this week, but we should temper overall expectations.
TE Jake Ferguson (DAL was WAS)
Ferguson has not been viable since losing Dak Prescott and suffering a concussion. He has scored single-digit fantasy points in four of his last five games and has not found the end zone a single time this season. Washington does not have the best tight-end defense on paper, but the lack of production for Ferguson should keep him away from your lineups to close out the season.
TE Dalton Schultz (HOU vs TEN)
Schultz is in a similar position to Ferguson. He has not played well at all in the second half of the season. He is averaging roughly 3 catches per game and has yet to eclipse 66 yards this season. He found the end zone twice in December but has not been a major weapon this year. Even with the loss of Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Stefon Diggs at different points this year, Schultz has been unable to have any consistent production. Avoid Schultz in your lineups this season.
