This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not considered, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchups
WR Mike Evans (TB vs NYG) vs Deonte Banks
Evans is expected back this week after an extended absence due to a knee injury and he is walking into a great matchup against a struggling Giants' defense. Baker Mayfield has played like an MVP without his weapons and will also get a boost this week with Evans' return. Banks has been asked to shadow some of the top receivers in the game and has allowed an average of 16.2 fantasy points per game. He has been benched due to poor play once already this season and teams have not been afraid to target him (21% of his coverage snaps). Look for Evans to return with a boom this week and do not be afraid to fire him up as a WR1 this week.
WR Terry McLaurin (WAS vs DAL) vs DaRon Bland
Bland is expected back from injury this week and should be viewed by many as a boost for the Dallas defense. However, a lot has changed since the last time he stepped on the field and this team is currently spiraling. McLaurin has played well against Dallas historically with 37 catches, 479 yards, and 3 touchdowns across his career. McLaurin averages 8 targets per game against Dallas and has played extremely well with Jayden Daniels this season. Bland will have his hands full in his first game back against McLaurin and a Washington offense that has exceeded all expectations so far this season.
WR Jauan Jennings (SF vs GB) vs Javon Bullard
Jennings exploded last week with 10 catches for 91 yards and a touchdown. He was the only reliable target for Brock Purdy with George Kittle missing the game due to injury. Kittle is expected back this week, but that does not change the great matchups for Jennings against Bullard in the slot. Bullard is currently allowing 0.49 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 25% of the time. He is the weakest link in the Green Bay secondary, and we should expect San Francisco to attack this spot early and often. The return of Kittle will take away some targets, but overall, Jennings should see a big bump in production this week.
WR Malik Nabers (NYG vs TB) vs Josh Hayes
This will be a telling week for Nabers' overall talent. He is walking into a great matchup against Hayes on the outside. Hayes is currently allowing 0.54 fantasy points per coverage snap, is being targeted 26% of the time, and is playing in a secondary that has allowed the 6th most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season. This would be one of the top matchups of the week if Nabers did not have Tommy DeVito throwing the ball this week. Daniel Jones was benched this week in favor of DeVito. Nabers should still be the focal point of the offense, but there is no predicting how DeVito will play this week. Nabers is an extremely talented wide receiver with a great matchup this week. Play him with confidence as volume alone should more than make up for the bad quarterback play.
WR Quentin Johnston (LAC vs BAL) vs Brandon Stephens
Even after holding the Steelers receiver group to under 20 points last week, Baltimore has still allowed the most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season. Johnston and Justin Herbert are starting to find their stride and have helped balance this offense. Stephens currently allows 0.35 fantasy points per coverage snap while being targeted just 17% of the time. He is prone to giving up the big play and or touchdowns. Expect Johnston to break free on at least one big play this week in what has become one of the best matchups to watch this weekend.
WR DeAndre Hopkins (KC vs CAR) vs Mike Jackson
After suffering their first loss of the season, the Chiefs' receiving group is walking into one of the most favorable matchups in the league against Carolina. The Panthers rank in the bottom 5 of almost every defensive category, and Hopkins gets one of the best matchups of the group. Jackson is currently allowing 0.37 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 20% of the time. Hopkins gets an even bigger boost on the 28% of snaps he lines up in the slot against Dane Jackson and the 0.50 fantasy points per coverage snap he gives up. The Chiefs have enough weapons to spread the ball around, but Hopkins has the best chance of any other receiver for a big game this week.
TE Cade Otton (TB vs NYG)
Otton had a down week before the Bye with 8.5 points scored. However, he was averaging 19.3 points and 9.8 targets in the four games before that. An 8.5-point performance is a very safe floor for a tight end, especially when there are six teams on a Bye this week. The return of Mike Evans may cut into his overall number of targets, but it should also draw some of the coverage away from Otton in the red zone. He is a must-start at this point in just about any format.
TE Hunter Henry (NE vs MIA)
Since Drake Maye took over, Henry has been his favorite target and it is not close. Henry has a 26% share of first-read attempts from Maye (6th amongst all tight ends) and is averaging 11.2 fantasy points per game since the rookie took over. Pair that with Miami allowing the 4th most yards to opposing tight ends over the past 5 weeks and we have a recipe for a great game. Start Henry with confidence this week with double-digit scoring potential.
Unfavorable Matchups
WR Jakobi Meyers (LV vs DEN) vs Patrick Surtain II
Surtain is not expected to shadow this week, and that will limit the upside of any Raiders receiver this week. Meyers has quietly played well in this struggling offense but will have to contend with Surtain and the 0.16 fantasy points per coverage snap he allows. The Broncos could occasionally put Surtain on Brock Bowers to try to limit the damage from the rookie tight end, but there likely will not be enough snaps away from Surtain to make Meyers worth being in your lineup this week. Denver is a tough matchup for any receiver and should be avoided.
WR CeeDee Lamb (DAL vs WAS) vs Marshon Lattimore
The Washington secondary has improved each week and should see a big boost from Lattimore when he fully suits up. He has been practicing for a couple of weeks now and is expected to make his debut this week. Lamb has struggled after the injury to Dak Prescott along with the rest of the team. Over the past eight weeks, Washington has allowed the 2nd fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers and the 5th fewest to the slot. Lamb should still be in your lineups as a WR2 due to volume, but we can temper expectations for as long as Cooper Rush is starting.
WR Courtland Sutton (DEN vs LV) vs Jack Jones
Sutton has played well in the past few weeks but has also shown he can disappear in this offense. Bo Nix has shown he will spread the ball around and not just target Sutton for the sake of him being their WR1. In their previous meeting (week 5), no Denver receiver eclipsed 2 catches or 48 yards. Only three receivers have reached 15 fantasy points against this defense all season. For all of the things going wrong in Vegas, the pass defense is not one of them. Sutton is a low-end FLEX option this week or should be on your bench if you have better options.
WR Cooper Kupp (LAR vs PHI) vs Cooper DeJean
The hot streak for the Philadelphia secondary continued after holding the Washington receiver group to 28 yards on 11 targets. DeJean continues to play extremely well in the slot, holding opposing receivers to 0.16 fantasy points per coverage snap and being targeted just 16% of the time. Only one receiver has reached 9 fantasy points against this unit since week 5, and they have now held six WR groups to 113 yards or less and a single touchdown over that span. Downgrade the Rams' receiver group against Philadelphia this week in what has become one of the toughest matchups in the NFL.
WR Nico Collins (HOU vs TEN) vs Darrell Baker Jr.
Collins' return last week did not look as spectacular after a long touchdown was called back due to a penalty, but he did look fully healthy and to be the focal point of this passing game. However, he draws the tough matchup this week against Baker on the outside. Baker is currently allowing 0.21 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 16% of the time. For all of the offensive struggles for Tennessee, their defense has played extremely well in the secondary. Collins will likely still be in your lineups this week, but we should temper overall expectations with a tougher-than-usual matchup against Tennessee.
WR Justin Jefferson (MIN vs CHI) vs Jaylon Johnson
Jefferson should always be in your lineups in a season-long setting, but we should lower our expectations this week in a tough matchup against Johnson. He is not expected to shadow, but Johnson plays each side of the field in equal measure while Jefferson lines up all across the field. They will likely meet on 60%+ of his routes this week. Johnson is currently holding opposing receivers to 0.18 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 10% of the time. Sam Darnold has also spread the ball around more in recent weeks to try to cut down on the interceptions thrown when trying to force Jefferson the ball. Jefferson can be downgraded this week but should not be out of your lineups.
TE Tucker Kraft (GB vs SF)
Kraft let everyone down last week with 0 points scored on a single target. He is averaging 3.6 targets per game over the last 5 weeks and has fallen off since his string of big plays and touchdowns earlier in the season. He is also facing a San Francisco defense that allows the 4th fewest yards overall to tight ends this season and the 2nd fewest over the past month. The highs may be high with Kraft, but the floor is too low to consider him a starter this week.
TE Pat Freiermuth (PIT vs CLE)
The connection with Russell Wilson has not been there for Freiermuth this season. Across his four starts with Wilson, the big tight end has 3 targets or fewer and has been held to 20 or fewer yards in his last three games. The Browns rank in the middle of the pack against tight ends this season but have allowed just 2 touchdowns. There is not enough volume or production to trust Freiermuth with Wilson under center right now.
