This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not considered, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.
Favorable Matchups
WR George Pickens (PIT vs BAL) vs Brandon Stephens
Pickens has played extremely well since Russell Wilson took over under center, and Baltimore has played extremely poorly in the secondary. Stephens was blown away by Ja'Marr Chase again last week, and the Ravens are currently allowing the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. Stephens is currently allowing 0.34 fantasy points per coverage snap despite being targeted just 16% of the time. He is prone to giving up big plays, and Pickens has been stretching the field with Wilson and his deep ball. Pickens has one of the best matchups in the NFL this week.
WR Quentin Johnston (LAC vs CIN) vs Cam Taylor-Britt
The Chargers are starting to find their stride throwing the ball at the exact same time the Bengals are struggling against perimeter receivers. Taylor-Britt is the biggest culprit, allowing 0.52 fantasy points per coverage snap and being targeted 24% of the time. The defense as a whole is allowing the 13th-fewest fantasy points to receivers overall but the third-most to perimeter receivers, including the most over the past four weeks. Justin Herbert continues to connect with Johnston, who may finally be turning into the receiver they hoped when drafting. Look for at least one big play this week from the Chargers’ young receiver.
WR A.J. Brown (PHI was WAS) vs Benjamin St-Juste
The Commanders recently picked up Marshon Lattimore, but he is not expected to shadow this week and has rarely done so this season. Lattimore plays the right side 95% of the time, and Brown lines up all over the field. We can expect Brown to see St-Juste a little over a third of the time and even escape to the slot nearly 25% of the time. St-Juste is currently allowing 0.42 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 23% of the time. There is no reason to downgrade Philadelphia receivers, even with Lattimore in the mix. The starting trio move around the formation so much that they will all have a chance to make a play against St-Juste.
WR Keenan Allen (CHI vs GB) vs Javon Bullard
The Chicago offense is struggling as a whole right now, but Allen has a great matchup against Bullard this week. The slot corner has allowed 0.50 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 24% of the time. This is a great spot for Caleb Williams to show some development and target the weakest part of the defense. Green Bay has played well against perimeter receiver with Jaire Alexander, but the middle should be open for Allen to do damage this week. Fire up Allen as a FLEX option this week in a great matchup against Green Bay.
WR Puka Nacua (LAR vs NE) vs Christian Gonzalez
Nacua burst back onto the scene after his injury and then quickly faded after throwing a punch and being ejected in the following game. Despite the up-and-down start to the season, Nacua still commands an elite target share and should not be afraid of the shadow coverage from Gonzalez. The young corner is being targeted 20% of the time and is allowing 0.32 fantasy points per coverage snap. He is the best cover option in this defense, but teams have not been afraid to throw his way. Look for Nacua to settle back into this offense and do some damage down the stretch.
WR Jameson Williams (DET vs JAX) vs Ronald Darby
Jacksonville is coming off a week where they absolutely shut down the Vikings’ offense, but Detroit is a whole different beast. Williams is back starting after a 2-game suspension and is walking into a great matchup against Darby on the outside. The veteran corner currently allows 0.37 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 18% of the time. He is susceptible to giving up the big play, and Jameson has a history of scoring points in bunches and quickly. Look for Jared Goff to bounce back from his 5-interception game last week and for Wiliams to be very involved against Darby.
TE David Njoku (CLE vs NO)
It is hard to predict what Cleveland offense you are going to get each week, but Njoku has been one of the highest-targeted tight ends in the league over the past few weeks. He will also be facing a New Orleans defense that has allowed just under 10 points to the likes of Will Dissly, Ja’Tavion Sanders, and Luke Schoonmaker. Njoku has a great opportunity for double-digit fantasy points this week.
TE Jonnu Smith (MIA vs LV)
Smith has been much more involved in the passing game in recent weeks. He has seen six targets in four out of his last five games and is always a red-zone threat. He is also facing a Las Vegas defense that has allowed 20+ fantasy points to a tight end in each of their last two games and more points to tight ends than any other team since week 7. Look for Smith to be very involved this week and take advantage of the great matchup.
Unfavorable Matchups
WR Drake London (ATL vs DEN) vs Patrick Surtain II
Another week and another downgraded receiver against Surtain. The Denver corner continues to be one of the best in the league, and this defense is playing man coverage at 59%. London will have a chance to escape into the slot where Surtain rarely follows, which may salvage some of his value. However, Surtain is currently allowing just 0.17 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 11% of the time. Downgrade the Atlanta offense in a tough matchup against Denver.
WR Terry McLaurin (WAS vs PHI) vs Darius Slay Jr.
The run of impressive defense from Philadelphia continued against Dallas last week. This secondary has held their last five opponents to under 113 yards and will look to continue against a fading Washington group. Jayden Daniels has not been the same since the rib injury, and Washington is coming off a loss against Pittsburgh. Slay currently allows 0.26 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 18% of the time. Downgrade McLaurin and the rest of the Philadelphia offense this week.
WR Ricky Pearsall (SF vs SEA) vs Josh Jobe
Pearsall quickly became a top target for Brock Purdy last week and scored an impressive long touchdown. It would be easy to chase the points, but Pearsall has a tough matchup this week and we should see some regression to the mean target share for Deebo Samuel Sr. and Jauan Jennings. Jobe is currently allowing 0.18 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 18% of the time in a limited sample size. San Francisco has other offensive weapons, and Pearsall is slated to have one of the tougher matchups this week. Avoid having him in the lineup if possible.
WR Tyler Lockett (SEA vs SF) vs Renardo Green
Lockett continues to be inconsistent this season and is fighting for every target in a crowded receiver group. DK Metcalf is expected back this week and will cut into the target share for Lockett. Green has played well on the outside for San Francisco and is currently holding receivers to 0.19 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 13% of the time. Lockett has been a FLEX option most of the season but belongs on the bench with a tough matchup against Green this week.
WR DeAndre Hopkins (KC bs BUF) vs Rasul Douglas
Kansas City has another tough defensive matchup for their receivers this week against Buffalo. The addition of Douglas has helped immensely and should limit the upside of Hopkins this week. After exploding against Tampa Bay two weeks ago, Hopkins had a quiet game against Denver last week, catching 4 passes for 56 yards. The offense is passing through Travis Kelce again, and Douglas will prove to be a tough matchup for Hopkins. The new corner has allowed 0.20 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 11% of the time. Hopkins should be downgraded this week.
WR Christian Watson (GB vs CHI) vs Jaylon Johnson
Watson has not performed nearly as well this season and has not sustained his high touchdown rate from last year. Pair that with a tough matchup on the outside against Johnson, and Watson belongs on the bench this week. Johnson is currently allowing 0.16 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 9% of the time. Expect a very quiet game from Watson this week, and look to get your points elsewhere.
TE Kyle Pitts (ATL vs DEN)
Pitts has disappeared in the past two weeks with just 5 catches and 11.2 fantasy points. There have been glimpses of the tight end everyone thought he would be this season, but there has been no consistency. He is also walking into one of the toughest matchups in the NFL for tight ends. The Broncos have allowed single-digit points to every tight end not named Travis Kelce or Brock Bowers this year. Avoid this matchup if possible.
TE Cole Kmet (CHI vs GB)
Kmet continues to frustrate with big games and then single-digit performances. He has less than 10 points scored in any game he has not scored 24+ (two games), and the low floor makes him a difficult start. The Packers are not a tough matchup on paper, but the struggles of the Bears’ offense and the volatility for Kmet should keep him on your bench this week.
