Receivers with Good and Bad Matchups: Week 10

Our Sean Settle discusses receivers and tight ends with good and bad matchups for this week.

Sean Settle's Receivers with Good and Bad Matchups: Week 10 Sean Settle Published 11/07/2024

© Peter van den Berg-Imagn Images

This article highlights some of the best and worst matchups for wide receivers and tight ends each week. Using player tracking data from various sources (NFL.com, Pro Football Focus, ESPN, etc.) and reviews of recent trends, I look for situations to exploit or avoid when setting your weekly lineups. Given that this article is intended to help across all sites (both DFS and season-long), variations in pricing and scoring systems are not considered, so obviously, the values could shift depending on where you are playing. The main intent of this article is simply to call out some players who could be significantly helped or hurt by their situations each week.

Favorable Matchups

WR Ja'Marr Chase (CIN vs BAL) vs Brandon Stephens

Baltimore may be an offensive juggernaut, but their defense is currently allowing the 2nd most fantasy points to opposing receivers, including the 3rd most to the perimeter. After a slow start, Chase has rebounded into the top receiver he is and will have a great matchup against Stephens on the outside. The Baltimore corner allows 0.28 fantasy points per coverage snap and is targeted 16% of the time. Seven different receivers have hit the 20-fantasy point mark against this defense, and Chase has a good chance of being in the 8th. Look for both Joe Burrow and Chase to have a big game this week.

WR Brian Thomas Jr. (JAX vs MIN) vs Shaq Griffin

Minnesota has a great defense by real-life NFL standards, but they currently allow the most fantasy points to opposing receivers. Those numbers have a lot to do with the volume faced but still leave a great matchup for Thomas on the outside. Eight different receivers have scored 17 or more fantasy points against this secondary, with Griffin being one of the weaker links. He currently allows 0.27 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 18% of the time. Minnesota plays a high rate of zone defense and allows a lot of yards and catches to opposing receivers. Look for Thomas to lead this receiver group with a big game this week.

WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (SF vs TB) vs Josh Hayes

There are a lot of different storylines this week for this game, but none of them change the matchup Samuel has on the outside against Hayes. The young corner is coming off a game where he was picked on by DeAndre Hopkins and allowed 2 touchdowns. He is allowing 0.64 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 23% of the time. San Francisco is coming off their bye week needing to get on a role if they want to keep up in their division. Look for Samuel to be targeted early and often in a very favorable matchup this week.

WR Wan'Dale Robinson (NYG vs CAR) vs Dane Jackson

The return of Malik Nabers and Daniel Jones' inefficiency have combined to decrease Robinson's production in recent weeks. However, that could all change with a great matchup against Carolina this week. Jackson is currently allowing 0.48 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 23% of the time. He has been thrust into starting duty after a rash of injuries hit this secondary and has not performed well. Look for the Giants to push the ball down the field and target Robinson in the slot early and often.

WR Zay Flowers (BAL vs CIN) vs Cam Taylor-Britt

Flowers lines up all over the field, and that will work to his benefit this week. He can be downgraded on his nearly 30% of snaps in the slot due to a tough matchup against Mike Hilton, but the other 70% of the time on the perimeter will more than make up for it. Taylor-Britt is currently allowing 0.42 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 24% of the time. The only thing truly working against Flowers is the crowded offense with a lot of mouths to feed both passing and rushing the ball. Lamar Jackson has done a great job spreading the love in this offense, and Flowers is coming off a game with 2 touchdowns. Look for the hot streak to continue against a division rival this week for Flowers in particular.

WR Tank Dell (TB vs DET) vs Carlton Davis III

Detroit has faced the most pass attempts as a defense this season and, in turn, has allowed the 3rd most yards and catches. The offense is constantly playing ahead and has led the defense to play the pass more and more. This volume bodes well for Dell and the rest of the Houston receivers. Davis is currently allowing 0.33 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 22% of the time. Detroit is winning games despite allowing a lot of fantasy points to opposing receivers. Look for Dell to have another good game before the potential return of Nico Collins.

TE Jake Ferguson (DAL vs PHI)

Philadelphia has been a tough defense against tight ends so far this year, but a lot is working for Ferguson this week. Four teams are on a bye this week, Ferguson was a safety blanket for Cooper Rush when Dak Prescott was hurt, and CeeDee Lamb is dealing with an injury. This week, Ferguson is a volume-based option and could see double-digit targets against the Eagles.

TE T.J. Hockenson (MIN vs JAX)

Hockenson is doing everything right after coming back from injury. He may have had only 5.7 points last week against the Colts, but he did play 33 snaps and should only see that number increase. The Jaguars have also been vulnerable to the tight end, with five beating them for 11+ points, including allowing 16+ to the position in the past four weeks. If you have been holding on to Hockenson this long, it may finally pay off.

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Unfavorable Matchups

WR Terry McLaurin (WAS vs PIT) vs Joey Porter Jr.

Pittsburgh is one of the best defenses in the NFL, and Porter has been a great corner no matter what he has been asked to do. He has not shadowed full-time since week 3 but is projected to line up against McLaurin at least 70% of the time based on where he plays on the field and where McLaurin lines up. Porter is currently allowing 0.30 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 19% of the time. This defense is great at pressuring the quarterback and will make life difficult for Jayden Daniels and McLaurin this week.

WR CeeDee Lamb (DAL vs PHI) vs Cooper DeJean

There is a lot stacked against Dallas and Lamb this week. He is currently dealing with an injury sustained last week, he will have a backup quarterback under center this week, and Philadelphia has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers over the past 4 weeks. Only Ja'Marr Chase has eclipsed 9 fantasy points against this secondary in the past four weeks. DeJean is currently allowing 0.16 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 14% of the time. This may be a rough game for Dallas against a division rival. Downgrade Lamb this week with so much working against him.

WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (ARZ vs NYJ) vs Sauce Gardner

The Jets' elite play against opposing receivers continues this season. They are allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers along with the 2nd fewest to the perimeter, the fewest receptions, the 3rd fewest touchdowns, and a league-low catch rate of 51%. Harrison has been very hot and cold this season and there is no escaping the tough matchup by moving around the field. Downgrade Kyler Murray and the entire Arizona receiver group.

WR DeAndre Hopkins (KC vs DEN) vs Patrick Surtain II

Denver has been one of the best defenses against receivers in the league. They have allowed the 9th fewest points and just six touchdowns through the air. This is with Surtain missing two games due to injury. Before Zay Flowers last week, no receiver had managed 18 fantasy points against this group. Surtain did not shadow Flowers but can be expected to travel with Hopkins this week. The elite corner is allowing 0.17 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted just 11% of the time. Hopkins continues to get more involved in this offense since the trade but is walking into one of the toughest matchups in the league against Surtain.

WR Jordan Addison (MIN vs JAX) vs Jaylon Johnson

Addison bounced back last week with a great performance against the Colts but may find things more difficult this week against Johnson on the outside. Johnson is currently allowing just 0.16 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 13% of the time. Sam Darnold has done a good job spreading the ball around at the expense of Addison. With the return of T.J. Hockenson and the tough matchup, Addison should be downgraded this week.

WR DJ Moore (CHI vs NE) vs Christian Gonzalez

Moore will look to bounce back after he walked off the field mid-play last week, but he will find it difficult to find room against Gonzalez. The young corner has been asked to shadow some of the best receivers in the league and has done a great job. If it were not for a long-broken play touchdown by D.K. Metcalf, no receiver would have scored more than 14 fantasy points against Gonzalez. He is allowing 0.30 fantasy points per coverage snap and is being targeted 22% of the time. Downgrade Moore and the Chicago offense against a tough New England defense.

TE Sam LaPorta (DET vs HOU)

It may be hard to swallow, but LaPorta has not been the fantasy player he was last season. The Lions continue to win, and he has not been needed to be the same player. Even if we did not have the shift in offensive philosophy, LaPorta has a tough matchup this week as well. Houston has allowed only two tight ends to eclipse 7 points, and no tight end has scored more than 13 against them this season. Four teams are on a bye this week, and LaPorta should still be on your bench.

TE Cole Kmet (CHI vs NE)

New England has not been particularly tough on tight ends this season, but the volatility of Kmet makes him difficult to start. He either scores 20+ fantasy points or single digits. There is nothing in between and that makes him a difficult play. At best, he is a shot in the dark with a high ceiling and a low floor. There are more consistent options, even on the waiver wire this week. Avoid Kmet if possible.

 

Photos provided by Imagn Images

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