Welcome back to NFL Prop Talk!
As our Devin Knotts noted in the Week 1 article, I'll be taking over the writing of Prop Talk this season! The article will come out on Fridays.
Our goal is to help you win some money on player props this season. We will use a combination of Footballguys' fantastic tools, rankings, and projections--as well as my insights.
Let's dive right into some Week 2 NFL props.
Week 2 NFL Props
We'll be using many different sportsbooks for these NFL props lines. Our advice is to always line-shop at as many sportsbooks as possible to find the best possible line!
Rhamondre Stevenson Over/Under 2.5 Receptions (DraftKings)
Stevenson is coming off a terrific game in Week 1 against the Cincinnati Bengals, with over 100 yards on the ground. He also added three catches in that game but didn't really have to do much as the Patriots managed to control the pace of the game. Notably, their much-maligned offensive line (30th in our Matt Bitonti's OL Rankings) did not play that poorly, ranking tenth in Run Block Win Rate, per ESPN.
Onto Week 2 we go, and the Patriots face off against the Seattle Seahawks, who overcome a tough start to manhandle the Denver Broncos. Stevenson should see the same usage this week, but we also need to note that Seahawks head coach, Mike McDonald, is running the defense now in Seattle, and things may be different. The Seahawks had a ton of pressure on Bo Nix in Week 1 while ranking 13th in Pass Rush Win Rate and along that line, the running backs received eight targets.
I can see Rhamondre being very busy in the dump-off game this week. In 2023, he averaged just over three catches per game.
Pick: Stevenson OVER 2.5 catches (-120)
Tony Pollard Over/Under 14.5 Longest Rush (DraftKings)
Longest rush and reception props are some of my favorite NFL props to make, and you'll see plenty of them in this article going forward! Pollard had an awesome Week 1, ranking ninth in Rush Yards over Expected in the win against the Chicago Bears.
Tony Pollard Week 1
— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) September 9, 2024
- 39 snaps
- 83.3% route participation
- 4 targets
- 16 carries
- 3 carries of 10+ yards
- 4.44 yards after contact per attempt
- 5.1 yards per attempt
- 0.87 RYOE per attempt
Workhorse role and very good efficiency.
Big riser heading into Week 2.
You may say, "WAIT! Why are you betting an over against the New York Jets' defense? Aren't they a very good unit?" While the Jets are an elite defense (especially in fantasy football), they have struggled to defend the run recently. In the Week 1 game against the San Francisco 49ers, they struggled mightily, allowing Jordan Mason to run for 147 yards and a touchdown.
I make this correlation because the 49ers and the Titans run similar rushing schemes. The 49ers love using a zone-rush scheme, and the Titans ran inside zone on 43.2% of their rushes in Week 1, per FTN, ranking second in the NFL. They had a 19.2% Explosive Rush Rate, which runs for over ten yards, against the Bears. The Jets also allowed a high ERR and six runs of 10+ yards.
Pick: Pollard OVER 14.5 Yards Longest Rush (-110)
Derek Carr Over/Under 32.5 Pass Attempts (BetMGM)
We didn't get much data on what the Saints want to do in Week 1 because of how thoroughly they throttled the Carolina Panthers, but I know that Derek Carr can be efficient when he wants to be. I'm pleasantly surprised with how the Saints took care of business in Klint Kubiak's new offensive scheme, which is a run-first offense emphasizing a lot of pre-snap motion.
Carr went under this number in 10/17 games last season and only had 23 in Week 1, with the Saints ranking fifth-lowest in Pass Rate over Expected. The Cowboys could get themselves into trouble in this game if the Saints can take away CeeDee Lamb and not make mistakes of their own, which the Browns did plenty of in Week 1.
I can see a scenario where the Saints win this game by leaning on the deep passing game and Alvin Kamara, so give me Carr to go just under this number, right alongside our projections, which have him at 32.
Pick: Carr UNDER 32.5 attempts (-108)
Malik Willis Over/Under 175.5 Passing Yards (BetMGM)
This is just a ridiculous number to me. If you have the Hard Rock Bet app, it's available at 177.5 yards as well. For a guy who has NEVER passed for more than 99 yards in a game that he started in his NFL career, there's a lot of respect being given to Willis by sportsbooks, proving that, once again, there is an edge to be had.
I think this is a domination game for the Indianapolis Colts. Willis is not a quarterback who stands in the pocket; he will choose to run if pressured. He has quick receivers in Jayden Reed, Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks, but if he can't get the ball to them, what good is it?
Willis could have a truly miserable day, and his prop line should not be this high.
Pick: Willis UNDER 175.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Chris Godwin Over/Under 59.5 Receiving Yards (BetMGM)
After the Lions just allowed Cooper Kupp to completely roast them out of the slot in Sunday Night Football last week, you would think the sportsbooks would raise this line higher. I was expecting at least 65 yards for Godwin!
Fortunately, you can find sub-60-yard numbers still lurking around, and I love this play. Godwin said that he would be used out of the slot much more this season, and in Week 1, that came to fruition with him putting up 83 yards against the Commanders.
Godwin should see plenty of strong usage in this game. Mike Evans will get his while presumably being covered by rookie Terrion Arnold on the outside, but Godwin should see Amik Robertson in the slot which is a plus matchup for him. Bet this over with confidence.
Pick: Godwin OVER 59.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
