Go here for this week's Rushing Matchups.
Top 3 Passing Matchups
Washington at Tampa Bay
Jayden Daniels has finally looked healthy over the last several weeks after suffering that rib injury back in Week 7 against Carolina. What makes this passing offense so dangerous is the dual threat of Daniels forcing defenses to respect his rushing ability. As a passer, he's been efficient this season, completing 69% of his passes, but it's clear that the Commanders need more receiving options outside of Terry McLaurin. Washington has seen Olamide Zaccheaus step up in recent weeks with the injury to Noah Brown, as Zaccheaus has 50 yards or more in each of his last three games, with 75 yards or more in the two games that Daniels played in full while scoring three touchdowns in those two games. Zacchaeus is an undersized receiver who is one of the best yards-after-catch players in football as he seems to get lost by opposing defenses, with over 50% of his yards coming after the catch for the 5-8 receiver. The ability for Daniels to throw the ball and have either Zaccheaus or Dyami Brown play a big role in this playoffs will be a key to how far this offense can go as while Terry McLaurin is a good number one receiver, he's not a great number one receiver which can cause him to be somewhat matchup dependent.
Tampa Bay's secondary is a complete mess, although there is some hope this week. The Buccaneers will get All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr back this week after he had an injury-filled 2024. The big question this week will be whether Jamel Dean will be able to play, as the team has been decimated at cornerback, and it would be a major issue if he's unable to go. The Buccaneers already lost their top two safeties. Christian Izien was lost in Week 16, while Jordan Whitehead returned in Week 17, only to be injured once again due to a car accident. If they are without Dean, this is a disaster for a defense that already has allowed the third-most fantasy points and third-most passing yards this season. Tampa Bay's stats have looked better in recent weeks, but they've faced quite possibly the easiest schedule imaginable as they've faced Spencer Rattler, Bryce Young, Cooper Rush, Justin Herbert, Desmond Ridder, Bryce Young, and Tommy DeVito over the last seven games.
Buffalo vs Denver
What Josh Allen has done with this receiving group is nothing short of remarkable. Allen has thrown for 3,731 yards, with his leading receiver being Khalil Shakir, who had just 821 yards this season, while only one other player on the Bills had over 500 yards, which was Keon Coleman, who had 556. Neither the free agent signing of Curtis Samuel nor the midseason trade of Amari Cooper has resulted in any consistency for this offense, while Dalton Kincaid, who has dealt with injuries, has yet to emerge as the Bills had hoped when they took him with a first-round pick in 2023. This offense is content, taking what the defense gives them, and Allen is the best in the NFL at buying himself an extra second to go through his progressions to find the open receiver. This does create a bit of a boom or bust without that reliable number-one receiver, but against Denver, this could be an advantage as Denver has Patrick Surtain II, who can only lock up one player, and the rest of the defense has shown that they're vulnerable.
Denver's passing defense has collapsed in recent weeks. Over their last five games, they've allowed Jameis Winston (497 yards, 4 touchdowns), Justin Herbert (284 yards, 2 touchdowns), and Joe Burrow (412 yards, 3 touchdowns). The Broncos have allowed the most passing yards in the NFL since Week 13. While Patrick Surtain II is the best cornerback in the NFL and likely to win Defensive Player of the Year, the rest of this pass defense has issues. Riley Moss and slot corner Ja'Quan McMillan have both been liabilities in recent weeks. We've seen Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Jerry Jeudy, and Elijah Moore all top 100 yards against this defense in recent weeks. The Broncos run some of the highest man-to-man rates in the NFL, which should make for a difficult day for Khalil Shakir as he will see a lot of Surtain this week, but the other receivers on the Bills should be in line for a big day. The Broncos rely heavily on their pass rush as they have the most sacks in the NFL this season with 63, which is nine more than the next closest team.
Baltimore vs Pittsburgh
Lamar Jackson has just wrapped up one of the most efficient passing seasons we've seen in recent history. Throwing for 41 touchdowns and just four interceptions while completing 8.8 yards per attempt, which led the NFL, is simply remarkable and makes him a strong MVP candidate. The Ravens suffered a critical Week 18 loss against the Browns, as Zay Flowers will not play with a knee injury this week. There's not a direct replacement for Flowers, but the team will likely turn to Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, and Isaiah Likely, as they could utilize a two-tight end set with Andrews spread out wide. The team has not trusted either Nelson Agholor or Tylan Wallace, as neither player has more than 250 yards in the season. Baltimore's offensive line has been a strength, with left tackle Ronnie Stanley and rookie right tackle Roger Rosengarten both playing at a high level, which has caused the Ravens to be sacked the third-fewest times this season.
Pittsburgh's secondary has been sputtering to the finish line in recent weeks. This team has allowed 275 passing yards or more in four of their last six games. After a great start to the season through the first four weeks, the Steelers allowed 259 passing yards per game, the fourth-highest in the NFL. While the Steelers have two very good safeties in Minkah Fitzpatrick and DeShon Elliott, their corners are one of the weakest units in the NFL. Joey Porter Jr., Donte Jackson, and Cameron Sutton are not NFL starter quality, which puts immense pressure on the pass rush and safeties to bail out this unit. The Steelers have one of the best pass-rushing defensive lines in the NFL with T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, and Cameron Heyward, and while they only have 40 sacks on the season, which is 17th, this is a unit that does not run many exotic blitz packages as they're primarily keeping their linebackers in coverage to help the secondary.
Bottom 3 Rushing Matchup
Tampa Bay vs Washington
The Buccaneers have been one of the hottest passing offenses in the second half of the season. Baker Mayfield has willed his team to the playoffs, as they've won six of their last seven despite not having Chris Godwin. Since coming back from injury, Evans has revitalized this offense as he had 85 yards or more in four of his last six games, while his upside has also helped Jalen McMillan. The third-round rookie receiver out of Washington has at least 50 yards in five straight games while being one of the best red zone receivers in the NFL, as McMillan has seven touchdowns over his last five games. With so much focus on Bucky Irving and Mike Evans, this has created favorable matchups for the rookie.
Washington's secondary has been a masterclass of what can happen when an elite defensive coach takes over and is not afraid of making personnel changes. Last season, the Commanders drafted Emmanuel Forbes Jr. and Quan Martin with their first and second-round picks. Dan Quinn moved Martin out of the slot and essentially full-time at safety, and the team released Forbes. The Commanders then drafted Mike Sainristil in the second round of the 2024 draft class and traded for Marshon Lattimore. All in all, this has taken a defense that allowed the most passing yards per game in 2023 to the third-fewest in 2024, as they're allowing just 204 yards per game, which is 68 fewer than last season. This is a completely different secondary than the first time these two teams met when Baker Mayfield threw for 2
Green Bay at Philadelphia
Jordan Love left last week's game early with an elbow injury, although it appears not too serious, as he was a full participant in practice on Thursday. It was a Week 18 game with very little meaning to the Packers, and it was about 10 degrees at Lambeau. The Packers did lose Christian Watson to a torn ACL early in that game against the Bears last week. With Watson out, expect more Dontayvion Wicks, who has seen 50% of the snaps in four of the last six games, while Bo Melton would also see some playing time. The Packers are one of the most difficult teams to figure out regarding receivers, as they're generally a low-upside offense with too many mouths to feed. Jordan Love has thrown for over 250 passing yards just once in his last seven games, and with 3-4 receivers plus Tucker Kraft all vying for targets, the team hasn't seen the offensive explosions we saw early on in the season. Jayden Reed has been struggling to see consistent volume as he's turned into the deep threat of this offense. In the one game without Watson this season, Romeo Doubs consolidated most of the targets, as he had 11 targets for the Packers, with no other player having more than 5 in that game.
Philadelphia has been one of the best secondaries all season. This is a masterclass by one of the league's best GMs in Howie Roseman, as he identified an issue at the cornerback position and drafted rookies Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean with the Eagles' first two rounds that have been outstanding. Philadelphia is allowing the second-fewest yards per game (192), and it is a defense that continues to improve as the rookies continue to develop. Safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson has rebuilt himself and is having a tremendous season after a failed stint in Detroit last season, where he couldn't stay healthy. The Eagles have allowed just one 300-yard passer all season, which was Baker Mayfield back in Week 4, but since that game, only one quarterback has thrown for over 250 yards all season.
Philadelphia vs Green Bay
Philadelphia's passing attack has struggled for most of the second half of the season. Jalen Hurts will return this week after suffering a concussion that kept him out of Week 17, but Hurts was not great even before the concussion. In five of his last six games that he has played in full, Hurts failed to throw for 225 yards or more, as he averaged just 186 passing yards per game. This is an offense that made a big attempt to get Saquon Barkley the rushing record as they ran the ball 25 times per game with Barkley over the last seven games and rarely threw the ball to him out of the backfield, as he caught just 12 passes over those seven games. Now that the record is no longer achievable due to the Eagles resting players in Week 18, the big question is how this offense will perform this postseason. With A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Saquon Barkley, this should be an offense that should be able to throw the ball when needed; we just haven't seen that upside consistently from Hurts this season.
Green Bay's secondary has been volatile this season, but they're allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year. Despite losing Jaire Alexander, who played just 10 snaps after Week 8, the Packers have seemingly gotten better as they've allowed the second-fewest fantasy points since Week 9. Safety Xavier McKinney is playing at an All-Pro level. Second-year corner Carrington Valentine has developed into a building block for this Packers defense. Green Bay has been up and down throughout the season, allowing three 300-yard performances to Trevor Lawrence, Tua Tagovailoa, and Sam Darnold. However, two of those were garbage time in which the Packers had 10-point leads and went with a conservative defense. This defense can rush the passer with multiple players, as they have 45 sacks on the season, with no player having more than 7.5 sacks, led by Rashan Gary.
