If you clicked on this article because you read the letters "PUP" and were curious about how cute dogs relate to fantasy football, I am sorry to disappoint. Although National Dog Day was earlier this week, this article is about how NFL teams are making cuts and finalizing the 53-man roster. Part of that process involves placing players on the PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) List. Players on the PUP are required to miss, at minimum, the first four games of the season.
Unfortunately, good boys will not be discussed.
“Did someone say good boy?”
Well, what do you know? A furry friend snuck in here after all.
Let's get to it.
TE T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota - Knee
In my first installment of the Preseason Injury Report, I discussed my expectations for Hockenson in 2024. They were not very high. I left readers with these parting words:
“Hockenson's knee injury occurred late in the 2023 season, meaning his recovery was likely to bleed into 2024. Minnesota seems like it is going to be very cautious with its sixth-year TE, and for that reason, he is another player I am avoiding in drafts. Hockenson is currently being selected as the 14th TE off the board. Let him clog someone else's roster.”
Since then, not much has changed. Hockenson ends up on the PUP, and although this means he will have to miss at least four games, I think it could be much longer. Minnesota has an early Week 6 bye. If Hockenson returns in Week 7 or beyond, I expect a ramp period on top of that.
RB Nick Chubb, Cleveland - Knee
Those familiar with my content know my feelings on RBs post-ACL reconstruction (ACLR). Compared to pre-injury levels, rush attempts per game, rushing yards, and fantasy points per game significantly decrease.
Running backs that do well following ACLR are either pass catchers or have a heavy workload to offset the decline in efficiency.
RBs who do well following ACL reconstruction are either heavily involved in passing game or have massive volume to make up for rushing efficiency decline.
— Adam Hutchison (@TheRealAdam_H) August 26, 2024
? Nick Chubb has never profiled as passing catching back
? Chubb is starting season on PUP - expect his workload to dip
Chubb checks neither of these boxes. Chubb's ADP is not terrible. He is currently being selected around pick 108 (RB36) overall. It's fine value, but his teammate Jerome Ford is going after him. With the recent news, I'd expect that to change.
Chubb could be back immediately after his PUP stint, but the upside he offered in years past might not be there, especially with the emergence of the aforementioned Ford.
RB Jonathon Brooks, Carolina - Knee
In a similar light to Nick Chubb, I am not high on Jonathon Brooks.
Because Brooks is starting on the PUP, it opens the door for Chuba Hubbard to not necessarily win the job, but if Hubbard fairs well, it'll make it harder for him to be relegated to the bench when Brooks returns.
My issue with Brooks now stems from the fact that he has a multitude of factors working against him, and the season hasn't even kicked off.
- He's a rookie in a new offense.
- Recovering from ACL surgery.
- And now he could be in a committee.
When looking for ceiling outcomes for rookie RBs post-ACLR, Todd Gurley is the poster child. Gurley finished as RB9 overall in PPR leagues.
I'm not sure Brooks is anywhere close to Gurley or in a situation nearly as good. At an ADP of RB29, I think Brooks is fine. I will admit that of anyone in this article, he has the highest ceiling for the second half of the season. But I fear his ceiling has more to do with the allure of the unknown and is not considering everything stacked up against him.
RB Kendre Miller, New Orleans - Hamstring
Few careers have gotten off to a worse start than Kendre Miller. Often injured and with little playing time, Miller will start the season on the IR (not PUP, meaning his injury occurred during preseason, not prior). Miller will still have to miss four games with a hamstring injury. Although the average time missed is 2.6, more serious injuries require more time. However, one can't help but wonder if Miller being on IR has to do with his injury or being in the dog house, given Dennis Allen's comments about his running back.
RB AJ Dillon, Green Bay - Stinger/Shoulder
One of the more surprising IR additions was AJ Dillon who is dealing with a stinger from 2023. Green Bay made the stipulation that this would be a season-ending IR stint for Dillion.
An interesting plot twist is that Dillon could actually be released and play for another team in 2024, but he won't be on the Packers' 53-man roster.
While AJ Dillon won't play for the Packers this season, it remains possible he'll reach an injury settlement with the team and play elsewhere if he's healthy enough. Awaiting word on the severity of the stinger that has kept him out the last week-plus.
— Matt Schneidman (@mattschneidman) August 27, 2024
Dillon's absence opens the door for MarShawn Lloyd, who struggled with a recurrent hamstring issue but managed to avoid the PUP/IR himself.
RB Keaton Mitchell, Baltimore - Knee
Keaton Mitchell flashed as a rookie with big/explosive touchdown runs. Mitchell was a fun player but never eclipsed more than 10 touches in a single game. His production was built solely on efficiency.
At the risk of boring you, I'm going to repeat myself.
Rush attempts per game, rushing yards, and fantasy points per game significantly decreased compared to pre-injury levels.
Fast forward to 2024, and the Ravens have added Derrick Henry to their roster. It will be difficult for any running back to eat into King Henry's workload.
With threats of declining rushing efficacy, a limited workload, and now a guarantee to miss the first four games of the season, Mitchell likely is not relevant in traditional redraft leagues.
WR Kendrick Bourne, New England - Knee
Compared to RBs, there is more evidence of WRs succeeding following ACL surgery, but the ones that do succeed do not fit Kendrick Bourne's build.
I am way more interested in Patriots WRs like Javon Baker, Ja'Lynn Polk, and Demario Douglas, and that was before New England placed Bourne on the PUP.
RB Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco - Undisclosed
Elijah Mitchell is heading to season-ending IR. This is your prompt to draft Jordan Mason as Christian McCaffrey's handcuff.
TE Tyler Higbee, LA Rams - Knee
It was not surprising to see Tyler Higbee end up in the PUP. Based on when Higbee had ACL surgery, his timeline for return is closer to Thanksgiving.
The Rams paid Colby Parkinson a lot of money this offseason. Parkinson becomes interesting in deeper leagues, especially given Matthew Stafford's affinity to target TEs.
