Hello, fantasy football diehards. And yes, if you are here, you are officially a diehard. While most people don't start digesting fantasy content until Labor Day hits, we diehards are sifting through projections, running mock drafts, and staying glued to our phones for the latest preseason news. So congratulations, and welcome to the club.
This week, and for the remainder of the NFL season, I will cover everyone's favorite topic…injuries. Exciting stuff, I know! But it is important. Knowing which players are rolling into Week 1 nicked up can help you make important roster decisions. And while the "Injury Analyst" is often the Wet Blanket at the party of the year, I am happy to make that sacrifice and be your guide for the 2024 season.
Before we dive in, it's important to make an important editorial note. Each week during the season, I will summarize the main injuries from the NFL's latest slate of games. I will break down each injury and give you projected return times and fantasy implications. These projections are my own and the culmination of my clinical experience as a practicing physical therapist, the latest NFL news, and data on NFL injuries that I have charted in 2017. For now, this is the latest injury breakdown as we head into Week 1.
Enjoy.
Key: (Position) Player, Team | Injury | Adam's Projected Return Timeline
RB Christian McCaffrey, San Franscio | Calf Strain | Ready Week 1
Christian McCaffrey is the best RB in fantasy football formats. He offers a massive positional advantage with workload volume and a versatile skill set, but that seems to come at a price these days. Injury scares.
The 49ers have announced that McCaffrey will miss the remainder of the preseason with a calf injury. This all seems fairly benign, as McCaffrey himself has said that if the 49ers were in the regular season, he would be playing right now.
It's important to note that for RBs, calf strains carry a relatively low re-injury rate of 8% (middle of the pack amongst all injuries I've charted for NFL RBs), but their fantasy output decreases by nearly 40% the weeks following the injury compared to pre-injury levels. The highest of all RB injuries. More than hamstrings or high ankle sprains.
This suggests that there can be lingering effects from a calf injury.
I'm still taking McCaffrey in the first round, but I do not think he is the clearcut first overall pick. I'd strongly consider CeeDee Lamb or Ja'Marr Chase (who currently have hold-out concerns but are healthy), Amon Ra-St. Brown or even other running backs like Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall are over McCaffrey right now. I have no qualms about taking Christian McCaffrey at the 1.01, but I think it is more of a conversation than others would make it seem.
QB Justin Herbert, LA Chargers | Plantar Fasciitis (foot) | Ready Week 1
Justin Herbert has been in a walking boot for most of the preseason as he recovers from plantar fasciitis (foot injury). Plantar fasciitis is notoriously painful and makes running difficult. There is not a lot of NFL data for quarterbacks dealing with this injury, but for skill position players, it has been limiting. Early in the season, I think Herbert will likely run less, but this injury does not make me overly concerned for his 2024 outlook.
Herbert's average draft position (ADP) has already dipped, possibly in part due to this injury, so I would still easily take him over going after him like Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, and Deshaun Watson. Herbert might even be a huge value at this point.
WR Puka Nacua, LA Rams | Knee Injury | Ready Week 1
Puka Nacua had an early preseason injury scare when he went down in practice with a knee injury. Los Angeles has since come out and said Nacua's injury was not serious, and although he would not play in the preseason, he will be ready for Week 1. Ram's head coach, Sean McVay, said Nacua had “a little bit of a bursa sac.” A little anatomy lesson for coach McVay, but everyone has a bursa sac.
I think McVay was trying to say that Nacua has a bursal sac inflammation or irritation in his knee. These are minor as far as knee injuries go, and I do not think Nacua will be limited by it. Nacua drafters should be more worried about Cooper Kupp who looks to be 100% following last season, but that is a conversation for another article.
WR Marquise Brown, Kansas City | SC Joint Sprain (shoulder) | Week 3-4 Return
One of the more serious injuries this preseason has been the SC joint sprain that Hollywood Brown suffered at Chiefs practice on 8/11. Kansas City reported that Brown would not need surgery, and his return timeline is slated at 4-6 weeks since he will not need surgery.
Some people are comparing Brown's timeline to Tyreek Hill, who had a similar injury in just four weeks. Although possible, this is the best-case scenario. I think there is a chance Brown still ends up on IR, missing at least the first four weeks of the NFL season. Kansas City also has a bye in Week 6, so I would not rule them out being cautious and holding him out until Week 7. Brown should be good when he returns, but his timeline is not exactly straightforward.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit| Hamstring Injury | Ready Week 1
Jahmyr Gibbs likely misses the rest of the Lion's preseason with a hamstring injury. Although it is not 100% clear, it appears that this is a re-injury that Gibbs suffered earlier in the offseason. When a player re-injures the same area, they typically miss more time, but even with that in mind, he is on track to be back in Week 1. David Montgomery may take on a larger workload to start the season, which could cap Gibb's upside, but it's not enough to push him down draft boards. I'd still be comfortable with Gibbs at his RB4 price tag.
WR Malik Nabers, NY Giants| Ankle Sprain | Ready Week 1
Last week, Malik Nabers injured his ankle, but he was able to return to practice on Thursday, well under the expected return-to-play timeline for ankle sprains. Naber's injury appears to have been minor, and we expect him to be ready in Week 1 with his normal involvement in the offense.
RB Jonathon Brooks, Carolina | ACL Reconstruction (knee) | Projecting Week 5 Return
Compared to recent classes, the 2024 RB class was rather underwhelming, so offering skepticism about the first RB selected isn't the most popular take, but that's where I'm at with Jonathon Brooks.
Those familiar with my content know my feelings on RBs post-ACL reconstruction. Compared to pre-injury levels, rush attempts per game, rushing yards, and fantasy points per game significantly decrease.
Because Brooks is a rookie, we don't have a baseline to compare to, but it's reasonable to expect a rocky start to the season. Todd Gurley is the poster child for ceiling outcomes as a rookie following ACL surgery, finishing as RB9 overall in PPR leagues. I'm not sure Brooks is anywhere close to Gurley or in an offense nearly as good. At RB28, I think Brooks is fine, but cresting the top 20 seems unlikely.
For more in-depth analysis, Jeff Bell, Jagger May, and I discussed Brooks on a recent Footballguys YouTube show.
RB Nick Chubb, Cleveland | Multi-Ligament Knee Surgery | Projecting Week 1 Return
In a similar breath to Jonathan Brooks, I have a cynical outlook for Nick Chubb this season. RBs who have done well following ACL reconstruction have strong receiving profiles or massive workloads. Pass catching has never been a strength of Chubb's; many of the higher workloads following ACL surgery are 10+ years old. As data and research have improved, most NFL teams resist giving RBs the lion's share of backfield work (see Breece Hall, 2023).
Although I'll admit that if anyone could break the mold, Nick Chubb would be one of those guys. However, I will follow the numbers. Avoiding Chubb seems like a smart bet, even at his current ADP of RB35.
TE T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota | ACL Reconstruction (knee) | Projecting Week 7 Return
Unlike RBs, I do not have much data on TEs following ACL surgery. Regardless, Hockenson's knee injury occurred late in the 2023 season, meaning his recovery was likely to bleed into 2024. Minnesota seems like it is going to be very cautious with its sixth-year TE, and for that reason, he is another player I am avoiding in drafts. Hockenson is currently being selected as the 14th TE off the board. Let him clog someone else's roster.
