He hasn’t produced much in his career so far. But Marquise Brown could be the skeleton key that unlocks the Chiefs offense.

The Kansas City Chiefs have been without a genuine deep threat for the past two years, requiring Patrick Mahomes II to adjust his playing style. The rise in two-high-safety formations from opposing defenses has necessitated Mahomes to adopt a more conservative approach. An explosive early-career passing attack has become a methodical dink-and-dunk march down the field. Despite this change in offensive philosophy, Mahomes has led the team to consecutive Super Bowls and secured an MVP title. However, the recent acquisitions of Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy in the offseason suggest a shift in strategy. The Chiefs hope to restore Mahomes' ability to throw the long ball again.

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Recent changes to the Chiefs

Since taking over as the starter in 2018, Mahomes has seen his intended air yards per pass attempt dip every season. And every year since 2019, his completion percentage has gone up. Mahomes is a savant at creating plays outside of the structure of the offense. His highlight reel is full of him spinning out of the pocket and evading defenders to buy time before throwing a frozen rope to a receiver. But what we’ve seen in recent years is a more mature passer, someone willing to take what the defenses give him. And even though it has worked in the “Win” column, Mahomes is now six years removed from that magical 5,000-yard, 50-touchdown season in 2018.

The Chiefs have been anchored by an elite defense run by Steve Spagnola over the last few seasons. But this offseason, L'Jarius Sneed and Willie Gay Jr Jr. walked in free agency. Rather than addressing those holes, the Chiefs signed Marquise Brown and Irv Smith. They extended Travis Kelce and Clyde Edwards-Helaire. They spent their first three draft picks on offense, including a trade-up in the first round for speedster Xavier Worthy. Spagnola and the defense have propped the team up in recent years. But the apparent vision is that they are tipping the scales back to Andy Reid and Mahomes.

What the post-Tyreek Hill Chiefs looked like

The passing game last year ran through two players: Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice. Rice’s average target depth was 4.8 yards, 102nd out of 103 qualifying receivers. There was a clear delineation of how wide receivers were used last year. In addition to Rice, Justyn Ross, Richie James, Skyy Moore, Mecole Hardman, and Kadarius Toney all averaged less than ten air yards per pass attempt. Meanwhile, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Justin Watson averaged 17.7 and 17.5 yards, respectively. Of those 103 qualifying receivers, those receivers ranked 4th and 5th in target depth.

That’s a lot of numbers, but the takeaway is that the Chiefs used Valdes-Scantling and Watson extremely deep downfield. At the same time, all the other receivers typically operated within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. And that theme was the same in 2022. Receivers ran short or deep routes, and no one had the elasticity to do both. In 2022 and 2023, their deep threats struggled.

Understanding how the Chiefs operate is essential before assessing Marquise Brown’s outlook. As mentioned, they’ve severely lacked a player who can play both short and deep.

Marquise Brown has never had a season with an average target depth below 11.0 yards.

Rashee Rice has never had a game with an average target depth above 7.6 yards.

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) March 25, 2024

And in steps Marquise Brown…

Brown ran a blistering 4.27-second 40-yard dash at his Oklahoma Pro Day in 2019. While he has the speed to blow the top off of defenses, he also has the skill set to win at every level of the field as a route runner. His size and speed give the perception that he is solely a downfield burner who plays outside the numbers. But he took over 20% of his snaps out of the slot last year. Exactly 50 percent of his targets came within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, and precisely 50 percent went beyond 10 yards. 47.9 percent of his targets were thrown between the numbers. Brown’s versatility is shocking, especially to people who watched him play in college. Although he isn’t at the same talent level, his skill set and usage are similar to Tyreek Hill’s.

As Hill developed in Kansas City, his target depth slowly decreased yearly but always stayed in a similar range.

• 2018: 14.8
• 2019: 12.9
• 2020: 12.9
• 2021: 10.4

Despite not having a single wide receiver and between a 10-17-yard target depth last year, that’s exactly where Hill was every year with Kansas City.

And Marquise Brown’s target depth numbers over the years are almost identical…

• 2019: 11.0
• 2020: 12.9
• 2021: 11.1
• 2022: 11.3
• 2023: 11.9

 Can Marquise Brown be the new Tyreek Hill?

Tyreek Hill is undoubtedly one of the league’s best receivers. And we’ve yet to see Brown come anywhere close to his production. But we can contextualize his struggles. He came into his rookie season with a Lisfranc injury that took away his top-end speed. In 2020 and 2021, the seasons where Brown put up elite peripheral metrics, Lamar Jackson averaged just 208.9 passing yards per game. However, the underlying data told us Brown had the ability to play at an elite level. His cumulative target share in 2020 and 2021 ranked 10th-best among all wide receivers. After being traded to Arizona in 2022, we saw a glimpse of what Brown’s ceiling could look like. Through Week 6, he averaged 10.7 targets, 7.2 receptions, 80.8 yards, and 0.5 touchdowns per game, pacing for nearly 1,400 yards. But an injury derailed the rest of his 2022 season. In 2023, a carousel of Joshua Dobbs, Clayton Tune, and coming-off-an-ACL-tear Kyler Murray led to another disappointing season. By the time Murray returned, Brown had a foot injury that inevitably ended his season.

Anemic passing offenses and injuries have plagued Marquise Brown’s career. Going into 2024, he has a clean bill of health and is tied to the league’s best quarterback and a creative head coach. He fits a need that the team has been searching for. Brown is a versatile and dynamic player who can line up anywhere, run any route, get behind defenses, and pick up yards after the catch.

What are the potential outcomes for Marquise Brown?

When healthy, Marquise Brown pulls about a 26.5 percent target share. If he can maintain that gravitational pull on the Chiefs, we can easily pencil him in for 1,200 yards. Given the depth and value of his targets, 1,400-1,500 yards is well within his range of outcomes. The ceiling for a player of Brown’s caliber in an offense as potent as the Chiefs’ makes him an extremely desirable target in your fantasy drafts.

Of course, the downside is that he continues to be the player we’ve seen over the course of his career: consistently banged up, vanishing from games when injuries linger, producing volatile week-to-week statistics, and struggling with drops. There’s the added concern about how his skillset overlaps with the newly drafted Xavier Worthy. Almost everything said about Brown (game-breaking speed, surprising versatility, target-pulling abilities) can apply to Worthy.

Outlook for the pass catchers in 2024

Projections for receivers are much more nuanced than spreadsheets would lead you to believe. Roles and archetypes are important when prognosticating how a season will play out. Travis Kelce’s role will not change. He will pull a 22-25 percent target share, playing inline and in the slot, working mainly across the middle of the field. Rashee Rice, despite his impressive rookie season, has a limited skill set. He will split his time between being out wide and in the slot. He will almost exclusively run short routes, mostly across the middle of the field. Expect at least 20 percent of the targets to go his way.

That leaves Brown and Worthy as the question marks for a big chunk of the remaining passing pie. Brown is a savvy route runner who still possesses the same speed and burst that made him appealing as a prospect. Worthy might have a bit more juice at this point in his career but lacks some of Brown's technical refinement. While Worthy is expected to be a part of the Chiefs’ multi-year plan, Brown is simply on a one-year contract. It is very tough to predict who will be the preferred receiver.

Prior to the NFL Draft, I would have confidently ranked Marquise Brown inside my top-20 wide receivers. The addition of Xavier Worthy mucks things up a bit. And that ambiguity has pushed both far enough down the boards that I’m willing to take chances and draft either.

Underdog Fantasy’s average draft position currently has Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown back-to-back at WR34 and WR35, preferring Worthy ever so slightly. Consensus has yet to take a hard stance, and a strong argument can be made for each player. But while most drafters will defer to the shiny new toy in Worthy, I am leaning towards Brown.

I expect Worthy to be used primarily as a deep threat, at least in 2024. With Marquez Valdes-Scantling out of the picture, Worthy can step right into that role. Like Tyreek Hill as a rookie, he should be asked to run mostly vertical routes. Hopes are that he can develop over time, but his role should be limited early on. And in this scenario, I’d expect Brown to be used as a more versatile weapon. Since trading away Tyreek Hill, the Chiefs drafted Skyy Moore and Rashee Rice. They traded for Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman. They have desperately searched for that Tyreek-Hill type of player, a queen on a chessboard that can be used creatively and without limit. Although Brown's career production has yet to show it, he has that upside. He’s displayed an ability to draw targets everywhere on the field, get behind defenses, and make plays after the catch.

So, who should you draft this year? Brown or Worthy?

There’s an inherent risk in drafting either Brown or Worthy this year, but that can be said for any mid-round wide receiver. Each has immense upside, but each also has the risk of struggling to see the field. The worst-case scenario is that both are relegated to the roles held by Valdes-Scantling and Watson last year, running wind sprints on every play. However, the concerns are accounted for in their draft cost, making both viable targets. While Worthy has the athleticism though, Brown has refinement and polish to his game that is necessary at the NFL level.

In my opinion, Brown is the ultimate upside play to draft as your WR3 or WR4. He’s far from a guarantee. But he has the underlying metrics that we want to see from a potential breakout wide receiver. The Chiefs have desperately searched for someone to fill the gap vacated by Tyreek Hill in 2022, and Marquise Brown could be the guy.

Marquise Brown's Past Stats

Marquise Brown's 2024 Projections

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