2024 Lessons Learned: Your Overall 2025 Draft Strategy

Wood, Dodgson, Kluge, Blaylock, Grant, Bell, Major, Paciga, Harris, and Hicks summarize 2024 lessons learned.

Rachel Tootsiepop's 2024 Lessons Learned: Your Overall 2025 Draft Strategy Rachel Tootsiepop Published 01/24/2025

© David Gonzales-Imagn Images

RELATED: See lessons learned at specific positions:
Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends

In this week's roundtable series, I asked our Footballguys staff to discuss their fantasy New Year's resolutions for the quarterback, tight end, running back, and wide receiver positions.

In today's article, we share our final thoughts on the lessons learned from 2024 and overall takeaways for approaching drafting in 2025.

Final Thoughts on Lessons Learned

The Christian McCaffrey Fiasco

Jason Wood: The "Christian McCaffrey Fiasco" is a black eye on the entire fantasy football industry this year. He was the consensus first-overall pick for nearly everyone in the fantasy community, yet we completely ignored that he was injured for the entire preseason. Sure, part of our indifference was driven by the NFL media consistently downplaying the injury, but ultimately, it's on us to look beyond media reports and know when to pivot.

The data shows that drafting McCaffrey this year created a massive headwind for making your league's playoffs—something that could have been avoided if we had collectively discounted him by a round or two due to the injury concerns. My resolution is to properly discount any player who doesn't practice or play at all during the preseason. While this scenario doesn't happen often, we should never keep a player in the top half of the first round when it does.

Colton Dodgson: Fantasy can't be more of a minefield. Even if you avoided the Christian McCaffrey trap, there were any number of ways to fumble your season. Sometimes, you also have the pressure of rankings or outward opinions running counter to your own instincts. My wife caught a ton of flack when she drafted CeeDee Lamb over Christian McCaffrey at 1.01 in our home redraft league. Still, she went with what she believed to be the right choice. In this case, it worked out. Lamb might not have returned 1.01 value, but he didn't derail her season like McCaffrey would have.

That decision stuck with me. I didn't necessarily think it was what I would've done. All of the brilliant minds compiling pre-draft rankings had McCaffrey as the top overall option. It made perfect sense, too. Given the run he'd been on in San Francisco, how could you not take McCaffrey? I probably would have. Still, she stuck to her guns and went with who she believed in. Her season ended in the quarterfinals. It would've ended a lot sooner had she gone with the consensus choice in McCaffrey. That's my takeaway. Use the resources available – the rankings, start/sit articles, waiver wire advice – as supplements. At the end of the day, the team is yours, and it's only yours if you rely on your instincts to make the calls. As long as you take the time to understand your approach and stick to it through thick and thin, I think you can live with the results. Even the biggest names in this industry have missed the playoffs.

Rookies with Preseason Injuries

Dave Kluge: Rookies who cannot partake in training camp and preseason games will be radioactive to me going forward. Jaxon Smith-Njigba missed almost all of his rookie season camp with a wrist injury and never got up to speed as a rookie. In Year 2, however, with an entire camp under his belt, Smith-Njigba blossomed into one of the league's most dynamic receivers. From this year's rookie class, Jonathon Brooks and Roman Wilson dealt with preseason injuries and contributed almost nothing. After breaking his foot injury during his rookie camp, Kyren Williams hardly saw the field before massive breakouts in Years 2 and 3. Jameson Williams is another example of a player who needed to get a full and healthy preseason under his belt before finally breaking out. As Mike Tomlin said regarding Wilson's lack of involvement this year, “It is very difficult to get on a moving train.” I will heed that advice in the future.

Jeff Blaylock: I agree with Jason's assessment that fantasy analysts, including myself, overly discounted the impacts of offseason and preseason injuries. I mostly avoided the “Christian McCaffrey Fiasco,” as he called it, but only because I did not have a top-three pick in any of my redraft leagues. I also agree with Dave's assessment that rookies who miss training camp are now completely off the redraft radar. I'll only use dynasty picks for players like Jonathon Brooks or J.J. McCarthy if I can afford to let them sit a year or two without contributing.

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Reflecting on Value

Will Grant: My overall takeaway is to be more mindful of the value in rounds four to eight. Building around a solid, running quarterback is the key to having a playoff-quality fantasy team, and the supporting cast is all acquired in the draft's middle rounds.  Many tight ends and wide receivers performed in the top 10 at their positions but were drafted with the 50th to 75th overall picks. Having a strong core is a key to victory, but you need the supporting cast around them.

My other takeaway is not to be swayed by this year's performance. Brock Bowers was a rookie standout this season and finished at the top of the tight end list. But last year's top rookie, Sam LaPorta, finished 7th and was probably drafted much higher than his performance warranted.  My goal will be to let the value come to me in those critical fourth to eighth rounds.

Jeff Bell: Teams that hammer running backs and wide receivers through the early rounds and hit on quarterbacks like Jayden Daniels, Jared Goff, and Baker Mayfield or tight ends like Brock Bowers and Jonnu Smith will always be challenging to handle.

That takes both skill and luck. For the teams that fell into those top-end combinations at bargain ADPs, there are last-place teams that were sure Luke Musgrave, Cole Kmet, Ben Sinnott, Caleb Williams, or Kirk Cousins were cheat codes.

If value allows, options like Josh Allen and Travis Kelce are still worth grabbing. However, in 2025, the value must be more aggressively baked in to build teams around swings at those positions.

Tipp Major: My overall takeaway is that I believe I was a year off on Bijan Robinson. I will be drafting him everywhere possible next year.  That will be my takeaway for the offseason. I was high on Robinson this year and even took him first overall in Super Flex Leagues, and I will do the same in 2025, especially with the quarterback position offering more and more depth.

Rachel Tootsiepop: The biggest thing I learned this season is to have patience and not overreact. I had a fantasy team that failed to deliver as the season started despite being chock full of talented players. Some of these players just took a few weeks to get in the groove because they were not playing in the preseason. I could have panicked, rage-dropped, or traded them away, but I didn't. This team came together and took me to the fantasy playoffs. I needed to trust in the talent and the value of these players. Knowing when to pivot off a player and when to hold steady isn't easy and will be something I continue to assess.

Self-Assess Lessons Learned

Leo Paciga: The main keys that set the foundation year over year in fantasy football are 1) identifying/capitalizing on variance and 2) balancing the relationship between decisiveness and adaptability. This past season taught me these staples are more important than ever to a successful season. While the benefits of identifying and capitalizing on variance all season long are fairly obvious, the synergy between adaptability and decisiveness is a little more nuanced. As much as we try to avoid it, we may implement a weak strategy or make a poor decision and then hesitate too long to correct it. Or we identify an opportunity but pump the brakes to collect just one more week of data to solidify our assessment.

My main suggestion for 2025 is to track these decisions, revisit them, and self-evaluate to close any gaps in your decision-making process. Jot down a quick note as to why you targeted a trade for a certain player or position. Did you wait and miss a trade window for a player or an opportunity to adjust a strategy? Why did you wait? I considered aggressively going after Brock Bowers after a dip in volume (weeks 3 and 4) but ultimately talked myself into waiting one more week – missing the opportunity entirely as someone else jumped ahead of me and landed him. Revisiting my comments regarding that situation confirms my process was solid, but my lack of decisiveness cost me dearly. Ultimately, understanding your ability to adapt correctly and ahead of your competition is a sustainable cheat code that can offset draft day shortcomings and season-long pitfalls.

Bob Harris: I have a handful of simple rules I'll try to incorporate this year:

  • Avoid what Footballguy Clayton Gray calls "take lock" and better evolve with developments that impact "my guys."
  • Diversify across multiple leagues.
  • Be more skeptical of the media.
  • Be more skeptical of coaches.
  • Be more mindful of injury situations and extended absences.
  • Be more mindful of contract situations.
  • Utilize the tools available at Footballguys to be better organized and manage all my teams.
  • Make this the season I actually heed the lessons I have learned many times over many years instead of falling back on more comfortable approaches that continue to fail me.

Andy Hicks: What I advise is one of the most difficult things to do in fantasy football. We spend an inordinate amount of time preparing our rankings, adjusting them, and looking for any tidbit to get an edge before our drafts. How much time do we spend after the season assessing where we could improve our rankings? Repeating the same mistakes year after year does not help us get better. Looking in the mirror and analyzing situations we got wrong is critical. Did we make incorrect assessments, or just have bad luck? All of this contributes to making the necessary improvements to get better for the next year. It is hard work and requires a little bit of self-reflection. Try it.

Draft Live and Local

Blaylock: My other big takeaway from this season is that drafting live and in person is much more fun and rewarding than online drafts. I got used to accepting virtual relationships due to the remote nature of my day job and a global health emergency, but nothing beats sharing experiences with friends. Drafting live last summer for the first time in years reinforced the community aspect of fantasy football. Whenever I can, I'll draft live and local.

Your 2025 Draft Strategy

As we wrap up the 2024 fantasy football season, numerous lessons must be learned. Rushing quarterbacks are making a noticeable difference. Preseason injuries matter more than we realized. When evaluating player value, consider multiple factors, including those in good situations. By taking stock of what worked and what didn't in 2024, we are better prepared for what comes our way in 2025.

 

Photos provided by Imagn Images

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