RELATED: See lessons learned at all other positions:
Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
In this week's roundtable series, I asked our Footballguys staff to discuss their fantasy New Year's resolutions for each position and their overall takeaways for approaching drafting in 2025.
Yesterday, we talked about the running back position. In today's article, we share insights on the wide receiver position.
Lessons Learned at the Wide Receiver Position
Underwhelming Year for Wide Receivers
Jason Wood: After years of fantasy leagues trending toward prioritizing receivers above all else, 2024 was a year where that strategy likely let you down. Most of the top receivers failed to deliver on their preseason ADPs due to a combination of underperformance and missed games. It was the missed games that proved most damaging; in many ways, the receiver position felt more like the running back position this year.
If you examine the top 24 receivers on a per-game basis, very few played a full slate of games. Chris Godwin was WR2 on a per-game basis but only played seven games. Tee Higgins was WR3 but missed six games. Other notable names—Puka Nacua (11 games), Malik Nabers (14), Nico Collins (11), Mike Evans (13), Davante Adams (13), A.J. Brown (13), Rashee Rice (4), DeVonta Smith (13), Stefon Diggs (8), Jordan Addison (14), Cooper Kupp (12), and Adam Thielen (9)—all missed significant time.
My New Year's resolution is to buy the dip. Next year's ADP will almost certainly skew toward running backs, thanks to their resurgence in 2024. This presents a prime opportunity to target two elite receivers within the first three rounds—a strategy that will almost certainly be a plus-EV decision.
Will Grant: Wide Receiver was the let-down position of 2024 in many cases. Top picks like Tyreek Hill, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and Chris Olave did not perform well enough to justify the high draft picks it took to get them. While CeeDee Lamb finished eighth in fantasy scoring, I doubt many fantasy owners were happy spending their 1st round draft picks to get him. As Jason pointed out, a big part of this was due to injury, either to the receiver or the quarterback throwing it at them.
But other top choices played out as expected. Ja'Marr Chase's holdout didn't stop him from dominating the field, scoring almost 100 more fantasy points than #2 wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. Justin Jefferson and Drake London also had top-five finishes, and rookies Brian Thomas Jr., Malik Nabers, and Ladd McConkey provided excellent value in their first year.
My New Year's resolution is to be open to taking a wide receiver or two in the top three rounds but be mindful of their situations. Jaxon Smith-Njigba finished in the top 10 because of an injury to DK Metcalf. Jerry Jeudy was okay at the start of the season but came on when Amari Cooper was traded to Buffalo. Courtland Sutton provided considerable value with Bo Nix under center, and Jameson Williams finally emerged as a solid wide receiver for the Lions. For the 2025 season, wide receiver will be the position I sprinkle in here or there and look for the value as it comes to me rather than go big in the early rounds.
Andy Hicks: This year, we saw Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase return to the elite level, Amon-Ra St. Brown and CeeDee Lamb remained there, while Brian Thomas Jr., Malik Nabers, Drake London, Terry McLaurin, Garrett Wilson, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba reached that level for the first time. That means, as Jason explained, a lot of expected success for wide receivers failed to materialize. Injury, age, and other circumstances saw a lot of disappointment.
Age we can account for. Davante Adams, Mike Evans, and even Keenan Allen were expected to regress, and all did so to varying degrees. Not so Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel Sr., Puka Nacua, and A.J. Brown. The rookie hype for Marvin Harrison Jr. was unfulfilled.
What can we take away from all this? The margin between fantasy success and underachievement is slim. Several receivers outside the top 30 had close to 1000-yard seasons or exceeded six touchdowns. We aren't after roster fillers to win our leagues. We are looking for the next elite fantasy receiver. This comes from young and ascending receivers, with the odd player like McLaurin surprising us. Players such as Brian Thomas Jr., Ladd McConkey, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba were all drafted outside the top 40 receivers in most leagues. Get one or even two of these types of guys to add to your earlier options, and you have a significant advantage to win your league.
Injuries Played a Big Part
Tipp Major: In 2024 wide receivers seemed to be a bit inconsistent, at least it felt like it. Quarterbacks are spreading the ball around more, and running backs are catching more passes these days, thus taking away from various wide receivers on their team. The biggest issue I noticed is that over 11 fantasy-relevant WRs ended up on season-ending IR in 2024. Many teams we counted on to have good WR play were extremely disappointing, like the Dolphins. Last year's draft gave us rising superstars like Brian Thomas Jr., and a few, such as Malik Nabers and Ladd McConkey, gave us something to look forward to in 2025.
Jeff Blaylock: I resolve not to panic despite the patchwork of bench players and waiver-wire replacements I tapped to replace injured wide receivers in my lineups. Of the 45 wide receivers who averaged at least 50 receiving yards per game, just 16 played all 17 games. Only three out of 11 receivers averaging at least 75 yards per game played every game. Despite the injuries to top players, wide receivers represented over half of the 25-plus fantasy point performances this season using point-per-reception (PPR) scoring. I'm still prioritizing wide receivers, especially in PPR leagues where I must start at least three. I might be less bullish in leagues with other scoring systems or fewer required wide receiver starters.
Wait to Take Rookie Receivers
Dave Kluge: As an industry, we're pretty darn good at projecting wide receivers. Of course, there are a few misses. But all are pretty easy to understand. Tyreek Hill dealt with a wrist injury for most of the year, and his quarterback missed a lot of time. Cooper Kupp appeared to fall off the age curve and lose his role to Puka Nacua, which is not uncommon for an aging and oft-injured receiver. Brian Thomas Jr. and Jaxon Smith-Njigba exploded onto the scene, providing top-ten finishes for those who drafted them late. But none of that is exceptionally note-worthy. Aging receivers fell short of preseason value. Young, talented receivers exceeded theirs. If there's one takeaway from this year, it's to fade any rookie receiver who gets pushed into the first or second round. You're much more likely to get elite production from proven veterans and can still strike gold on rookie picks in the later rounds.
Adam Harstad: This isn't a "lesson learned"-- I've been writing about this for years now-- so much as a "lesson reinforced": rookies (and especially rookie receivers) are one of the biggest keys to winning championships.
Brian Thomas Jr. was the #11 ranked WR from Weeks 1-14. He was the #1 fantasy receiver over Weeks 15-17. Malik Nabers rose from 10th in the regular season to 5th in the playoffs. Xavier Worthy rose from 41st to 10th. Ladd McConkey went from 21st to 12th. Jalen McMillan rocketed from 93rd to 14th! When the games mattered the most, a third of the Top 15 fantasy receivers (including two of the Top 5) were rookies.
That wasn't a one-off fluke. Rookies are the only class of players that consistently see their production rise late in the year. In 2023, for instance, Puka Nacua, Rashee Rice, Jayden Reed, Zay Flowers, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba all saw significant increases during the fantasy playoffs.
Not all rookies will hit. I placed several bets on Rome Odunze, Xavier Legette, and Keon Coleman that never paid off, and the Ricky Pearsall breakout I was hoping for came one week too late (he was the #12 WR from Weeks 16-18).
But we know several rookies will punch well above their cost down the stretch, so if you want to maximize your playoff upside (and you *do* want to maximize your playoff upside, right?), it's a good idea to take some cheap swings at landing them.
Late-Round Receivers Were Worth the Value
Colton Dodgson: This was a weird year for wide receivers. Outside of Ja'Marr Chase and maybe Amon-Ra St. Brown, all other elite options felt mildly underwhelming in terms of ADP relative to their production. CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Justin Jefferson rounded out the top five at the position. They finished as WR8, WR21, WR3, and WR2 in half-PPR scoring. Again, it wasn't horrible. It's worth noting that Jefferson produced the lowest point total in a season where he played in all of Minnesota's games since his rookie season. St. Brown was the WR3 for the second straight season. Outside of the five marquee names, Brian Thomas Jr., Drake London, Terry McLaurin, Malik Nabers, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba ascended in the top ten at the position. London's ADP of 16 would've required the richest investment during drafts. Beyond that, the other four had an average ADP of 69, ranging from 39 for Nabers to 92 for Thomas.
In other words, managers who didn't land St. Brown, Jefferson, or Chase were better off waiting until later in drafts to address the position. They likely landed a huge bargain in doing so. My resolution is to let my draft dictate what I do at wide receiver. If I can land the alpha receiver early, that would be great. If not, being aware of those hidden gems and when I can reasonably land them is an appealing alternative. I also think it's important to be aware of the depth and history of development at the position. Identifying the guys with a Smith-Njigba or London-level leap could give you an edge. Is that DeMario Douglas, Jordan Addison, or Josh Downs? Could Calvin Ridley or Jakobi Meyers have a Terry McLaurin-type campaign with an exceptional rookie quarterback? Which underrated rookie inherits a Brian Thomas Jr.-like role in their first year? Identifying the answers to these questions will be the task I commit myself to in the new year primarily because finding the correct answers might be one of the most significant advantages you can give yourself over your leaguemates.
Bob Harris: This is where I step onto my soapbox and remind everybody not to over-inflate the importance of quarterbacks in drafting receivers. I can cite a universe of examples over the years, but I'll stick with the 2024 lessons reaffirming my stance. This season, Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Brock Bowers, Courtland Sutton, Jakobi Meyers, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku, Wan'Dale Robinson, and others delivered, if not high-end, better-than-expected fantasy production despite playing with some of the NFL's least-impressive triggermen. All of them were great values in this year's draft, and playing off the fears of other managers will continue to be a point of emphasis for me.
Rachel Tootsiepop: The wide receiver position was anything but predictable this year. A few of the receivers, like Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, and Amon-Ra St. Brown, were expected to be elite, and indeed, they were. Others like Tyreek Hill, however, disappointed fantasy managers. The fantasy production of several late-round wide receivers stood out to me the most. Jordan Addison, Jameson Williams, Jauan Jennings, and Adam Thielen averaged 14.0+ point-per-reception (PPR) fantasy points per game. Especially from mid-season on, you could've started any of these players and expected they'd give you a reliable floor. The biggest lesson this season taught us about wide receivers is to temper expectations and not overpay on receivers in the early rounds.
Draft Multiple Receivers
Jeff Haseley: Most of the wide receivers in the top 15 are players on good teams, except for Brian Thomas Jr., who exploded onto the scene in a sub-par Jacksonville offense and quarterback situation. He thrived regardless of who was under center. Generally, my approach for the wide receiver position is to target an elite receiver early and select receivers with good quarterbacks. If you're looking for a potential top-five riser, consider a receiver on a team who is likely to dominate targets, meaning the #2 option is not known as a big producer. This includes tight end teammates. This is one of the reasons why Thomas, Jerry Jeudy, and Drake London rose to prominence. I generally fade veteran receivers, especially those with a young, emerging teammate at receiver. Keenan Allen is a good example of this.
Jeff Bell: Outliers are outliers
In 2023, the takeaway likely leaned on late breakouts. Puka Nacua was the highlight, but Nico Collins, Jayden Reed, Adam Thielen, and Tank Dell came from way off the radar to be weekly starters.
2024 removed the discounts from rookies. Outside of Denver (who spread production too thin for a consistent second receiver) and Minnesota (with no discounts on the wide receiver), there was no Texans-esque offensive breakout. Outside of Jauan Jennings finishing WR25, almost no players could qualify as significant surprise contributors.
Get wide receivers early and often.
Your 2025 Strategy at Wide Receiver
Usually, wide receiver is a position heavily prioritized in fantasy drafts. In 2024, this approach let us down due to underwhelming performances and significant injuries at this position. But don't let what happened this year cause you to over-correct in 2025. Overall, we are advising taking a balanced approach between drafting elite talent early and capitalizing on value in later rounds.
