RELATED: See lessons learned at all other positions:
Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
In this week's roundtable series, I asked our Footballguys staff to discuss their fantasy New Year's resolutions for each position and their overall takeaways for approaching drafting in 2025.
Yesterday, we talked about the tight end position. In today's article, we share our thoughts on the running back position.
Lessons Learned at Running Back
Drafting Running Backs on New Offenses Worked in 2024
Dave Kluge: It still feels too early to thoroughly digest what just happened with running backs. For years, drafting aging running backs on new teams has been an easy-to-avoid landmine. This year, three of the top-five finishers were suppressed in fantasy drafts for that exact reason. Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs were all historical outliers. Do we chalk it up as a fluke? Or do we kick ourselves for fading elite talents on good offenses? I lean toward the latter. When assessing running backs, the resolution should be to not favor spreadsheets and data over common sense.
Jeff Bell: Get bell cows.
Situation Matters. Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs had subpar 2023 seasons. They had dramatic environmental upgrades. The result was much stronger 2024 performances, finishing RB1, RB2, and RB6.
The more significant takeaway is a shift toward more bell cow usage. Between 2017 and 2023, the NFL averaged 6.7 players over 290 touches. The highest seasons were nine in 2017 and 2019, while the fewest was four in 2021. In 2024, 13 backs went over 290 touches. Understandably, with more touches, there are more fantasy points. In 2021, James Conner finished as the RB5 at 15.9 and 239.2 half PPR points. Those numbers would have been tied with Kyren Williams and Joe Mixon for RB8 in 2024. The RB1 threshold for a Top 12 finish in 2021 sat just at 200 points; in 2024, that would be RB18.
RB24 is my threshold, viewing a 12-team league as having two starting running back positions. Eliminating committee backfields does two things. First, it creates more potential RB1s, i.e., players capable of scoring inside the Top 12 (ideally the Top 8) at the position. Second, it raises the bar dramatically on start-ability for the RB2 field. If half the league starts two backs who would have been RB1s just three seasons ago, the disadvantage of a patchwork, ZeroRB team increases.
Think of the league as 32 potential fantasy RB1s. Any team (outside of Detroit) splitting carries eliminates themselves from the RB1 pool. In an arena with every backfield split, there are 64 available options for 24 primary spots. Supply overflows. If half of those teams suddenly shift to bell cow usage, the pool goes to 17* (Detroit), but the other 16 committee backs pose a different value proposition. Starting a committee running back averaging 10 PPG is very different than a bell cow averaging north of 15 PPG (roughly similar to starting Josh Allen vs Tua Tagovailoa). Starting two committee running backs in a league where most have two bell cows becomes a different animal.
Should We Fade Running Backs on New Offenses in 2025?
Jason Wood: Running back strategy was where most leagues were won and lost in 2024. Fortunately for our subscribers, we strongly advocated for veteran free agents like Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. If you followed our advice, you were sitting pretty. Add Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs to the mix, and the trend becomes clear: betting on older veterans changing teams at their discounted ADPs was a massive edge because so many managers overlooked them.
You were also rewarded if you invested in incumbents like Alvin Kamara, Chuba Hubbard, and Kyren Williams. But here's where things get interesting: my New Year's resolution is to likely fade these same players in next year's draft. Fantasy managers tend to overreact to what happened the prior year, and the same phenomenon that made these running backs incredible values in 2024 is likely to make them overvalued in 2025.
We can expect workhorse running backs to dominate the first two rounds of drafts, which will likely open up value elsewhere—most notably at receiver.
Jeff Blaylock: I resolve to avoid paying a premium for running backs older than 27 in 2025 despite their success in 2024. Six such running backs eclipsed 240 fantasy points using point-per-reception (PPR) scoring, the most in a season since 2002. Four of those backs – James Conner, Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, and Alvin Kamara – will be 30 or older next season. Since 2002, just 13 running backs in their 30s have scored at least 240 PPR points, according to Stathead's data. I'm not necessarily betting against top-12 seasons for these players, but I'm not overpaying for the possibility of it.
For dynasty, I resolve to keep finding first-round talent in the third round of rookie drafts. Last year, I drafted Bucky Irving in the third round of all my rookie drafts, and he finished as the RB14 in PPR scoring and RB1 of the rookie class. Two years ago, it was Puka Nacua. Who will it be in 2025? Among the running backs, Texas Tech's Tahj Brooks, Arizona State's Cam Skattebo, and Miami's Damien Martinez are my way-too-early picks right now. If a third-round pick doesn't hit, it costs little. If he does hit, then the value relative to cost is immense.
Consider Drafting Receiving Backs
Will Grant: Running back is a position I often target early and often. In a typical flex league, I always want three running backs on the field and will only start a wide receiver in that third spot if I have bye-week issues. While overall focus on the position is down, the range from the top running backs to the weakest starters is deep enough to justify continued focus on taking running backs early.
Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Derrick Henry were stable enough to give you a high fantasy floor every week and had weeks where they scored two or three times to put you over the top. Barkley and Gibbs had multiple touchdown weeks that were almost impossible to overcome if you had even passible talent around them.
Backs who also catch passes saw better value this year as well. De'Von Achane finished in the top five despite only rushing for 907 yards because he had 78 receptions and almost 600 receiving yards. Older backs like Alvin Kamara, James Conner, and Aaron Jones posted top twelve points because of their higher reception totals.
Rookie Running backs are the players to approach with caution going forward. Bucky Irving (RB14) was the only rookie to finish in the top 25. Tyrone Tracy Jr. had three games with over 100 yards rushing, but his inconsistency probably cost you more games than you won if you tried to start him week to week. In most cases, rookie running backs should be the focus of keeper and dynasty leagues with only spot-starter expectations in redraft.
Jeff Haseley: Running back - There are not many workhorse running backs in the league. Six had 300 carries or more in 2024 (Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Kyren Williams, Bijan Robinson, Jonathan Taylor, and Josh Jacobs). All six finished with double-digit rushing touchdowns. The problem with the running back position is that, year over year, most running backs aren't consistent, mostly due to injury, but it could be other factors like team performance, etc. In 2023, there were zero 300-carry backs. Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall, Rachaad White, Travis Etienne Jr., Raheem Mostert, and Joe Mixon finished in the top 6. Breece Hall (16th) and Joe Mixon (17th) were the closest to the top 10 in 2024; the others were way off.
Drafting one reliable running back is a task; drafting more than one is even more challenging. So what's the trick? Draft backs on good teams, especially if they have an aging veteran. Focus on backs with versatility as a receiver (2+ receptions per game average). The most important tip is to be ready to pounce the waiver wire in the early weeks of the season. In drafts, try to pinpoint some of these emerging backs and draft them late so a waiver claim isn't needed. People are going to draft these six workhorse backs early next year, but statistically, about 50% meet or exceed expectations. Chase Brown and Ken Walker III are two backs to target next year. You can get them after many of the top backs get selected. They both have shown promise in the past and are in a position to receive heavy volume in 2025.
Rachel Tootsiepop: A lot of my 2024 fantasy successes came in part due to drafting receiving backs on my rosters. Will talked about what De'Von Achane accomplished this season. I will further point out that Achane had just as many receiving touchdowns as he had rushing touchdowns: six. Being that dual threat on the Miami offense only helped to bolster his fantasy production. Also with six receiving touchdowns on the season was Tampa Bay's Rachaad White. Even though his counterpart, Bucky Irving, took over the RB1 role for the offense, White still maintained a significant role in the passing game. My resolution for next year is to pay attention to running backs with this dual role because that will only lead to more fantasy point opportunities.
The Trusted Hero RB Strategy
Tipp Major: For years, the Zero RB strategy has been a popular draft strategy for fantasy football. However this season I decided to forego this strategy and go back to my roots, sort of. This season, I made it a point to get an RB early. Then follow that up with a couple of wide receivers. The Hero RB strategy gave me hope at the beginning of the season. With more teams working at balancing their offensive attacks, we saw six RBs get more than 300 carries this season.
Another thing that must be discussed is the curse of 370. When a running back has more than 370 touches in a season, studies have shown that their production has dropped off the following year. The last to accomplish this feat was Christian McCaffrey in 2023 with over 400 touches. This is a warning about Saquon Barkley and drafting him next year.
Bob Harris: While I'll also be a Hero RB drafter, taking more shots on ambiguous backfields at the right price will be a tactic I lean into more heavily this season. Volume will always be king, and the list of second-tier running backs last year -- James Conner, Alvin Kamara, and Aaron Jones -- who exceeded expectations based on high-volume roles is a reminder. But players like Chuba Hubbard, Chase Brown, Bucky Irving, and J.K. Dobbins were difference makers who went considerably later in drafts, primarily due to their uncertain roles (and anticipated volume) heading into the season. Trying to identify and acquire players in similar situations this year will be a goal, although the failure rate makes landing them at the right price of great importance.
Target Depth at the Position
Colton Dodgson: I couldn't have been more fortunate at running back this season. A Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley tandem will certainly inspire confidence. When the decisions are that easy week-to-week, though, you can naturally get a little complacent with your depth. I was more focused on solidifying my wide receiver core than bolstering the options behind my dynamic duo. I do recognize, though, how rare it is to end a season with the top two running backs in the NFL in rushing yardage – by a mile, I might add. That said, my resolution at running back is to return to my roots. Don't let one year of dominance at the position become the expectation. With injuries, late bloomers, and player decline, running backs can evolve dramatically over the course of the season. The most effective way to combat that is loading up on options. Now, they're not all going to be Bucky Irving or Chuba Hubbard types. The more darts you throw, though, the more likely you are to land the late-round star.
Don't dedicate seven roster spots to running backs. You have other needs. I can say four, maybe five, of my roster spots will be reserved for running backs, though. I always like being fortified at the position.
Andy Hicks: This was the year running backs proved their worth after many years of being undervalued by the league. A good mix of younger and older backs dominated the fantasy landscape this season, but six of the top 10 were still in their first three years of life in the NFL. None were rookies. This is a repeat of 2023 with less fanfare. For comparison, only one top 10 fantasy back in 2022 had fewer than four years of experience.
As Jason advised, many leagues were won and lost at this position. What can we learn for 2025? Nothing but hard work for fantasy managers at the position evaluating offensive schemes, depth charts, player performance, and opposing defenses. For every Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, etc. from the free agent class in 2024, we have numerous failures from previous years. Due to the league becoming heavily pass-dominated over the last decade, opposing defenses were naturally going to counter it. Enter the running back. Injuries heavily impact the position, and the ultimate lesson is to have depth and research diligently.
Your 2025 Strategy at Running Back
Running back is the one position with multiple schools of thought that keep evolving. What worked in 2024 may not carry over in 2025 as defenses constantly adjust their response to stop the run game. We are generally advising to not view this position as one-dimensional. Don't focus solely on singular factors such as age. When it comes to this position in 2025, remember past trends, consider multiple factors, and be ready to work the waiver wire.
