We all have a favorite article of clothing. Whether it is that T-shirt you caught at the game or a sentimental gift of socks during the holidays, most people have something they value and may even fit better with age. What happens when the shirt gets a hole? Or when the elastic of the shorts begins to give? In most cases, you discard the article of clothing and move on with your life. Why, then, is it so difficult to do this with our reliable fantasy football players? Lavonte David of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is a great example of this phenomenon in IDP fantasy football. He’s been a consistent contributor for the entirety of his 13-year career, but just like those shoes that have seen better days, so too has Lavonte David.
Who is Lavonte David?
Lavonte David started his career in 2012 when he burst onto the scene with 112 solo tackles as a rookie! He was an immediate contributor and became a fan favorite at the linebacker position. The following year, he was hard-pressed to replicate those numbers but put together 106 solo tackles while increasing his assist and tackle-for-loss numbers (not to mention the five interceptions and six sacks to go along with this). Just like that, we have a case for David to be the overall LB1, if not IDP1, for the entire league! David never really hit those 2013 numbers again, but he was far from being a bad player. He has been a model of consistent big-play performance while also manning the green dot for the Buccaneers. While he may not have been the consistent LB1 overall, he was a perennial set-and-forget linebacker in your lineup for the better part of 13 seasons.
So What's the Catch?
If David is so good, why is he being talked about here? Simply put, he can’t continue this pace much longer and it is better to be ahead of this type of player than behind. David will come into this season at the wise age of 34, which in NFL circles may as well be ancient Egypt’s age. At the linebacker position, your main objective is to get the ball carrier down by any means necessary, which at times requires an immense amount of force. His body takes car crash-type impact 8-12 times a game. In your 20s, you take an ice bath and do some stretching, but in your mid-30s, the recovery requires more thought and execution. At some point, the body will break down. David has been uniquely an ironman in his career, never really suffering a devastating injury, but last season, he suffered a soft tissue injury that tends to linger the older you get. It’s a cheap copout to point out age as the main reason for a potential downtick in point production, but there’s a myriad of reasons why we need to begin to look for the ugly when it comes to David’s short-term career.
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The Good: A High Tackle Floor
One of the main reasons that David has been so valuable is that he has provided a consistent tackle floor while adding the boom plays as a cherry on top. Because of this, we have seen him amass over 140 total tackles multiple times with big play stats that made him shine. He hasn’t had a season like that since 2015, and while the big plays have remained, the tackle floor has slipped from an average of 143 his first four seasons to 118 his last four seasons. Tackle floors win leagues. While his tackle numbers aren’t bad enough to forget about him, they’re trending in the wrong direction, and the big plays carry his point values. This is a red flag all IDP fantasy managers should watch. Big plays are great for players who consistently make them, but for players over the hill in their careers, they can mask underlying issues that can help us see through our biases for our favorite players. To win consistently in IDP fantasy football, you must be able to objectively look at a player and realize it’s over.
The Bad: Not Many Big Plays
What is defined as a "big play" is anything that causes a sack, turnover, or touchdown. These are the outliers for most people, but if you’ve played IDP fantasy football long enough, you’ll realize that certain guys have a knack for making these plays or being near them enough to capitalize. David is a perfect example of this, but we are starting to see a depreciation of these stats. David’s peak years were from 2013-2020. Over that period, he amassed 24 forced fumbles, 16 fumble recoveries, 12 interceptions, 20 sacks, and three touchdowns. While it may seem like that timeframe is long, therefore exaggerating the stats, the context is necessary. Since 2020, he has 0 interceptions, nine sacks, four forced fumbles, and two recovered fumbles. If these plays take a steeper downhill trajectory, we could see David fall into the borderline LB3-4 range, which, in most cases, is a depth-filler bench player.
Current Value: Name Recognition
David is likely in his last season where you can get anything of value for him if you’re a manager of his. He still had 134 total tackles and four sacks last season. For players in win-now territory, you need to ride this wave out and utilize him as a depth player, as previously mentioned. Regardless of your view on him, we all can agree that his name recognition will inflate his value, even if it is entering all-time low territory. He can bring value to your team, but if you’re rebuilding or not contending, you may as well move on now and focus on the others on your team.
Closing
All good things must come to an end, whether it is your favorite shirt getting a hole in it after you’ve worn it for the 1000th time or a player who has entered the dog days of his career. Either way, there's a certain finality to this scenario, and if you’re not looking for it, it will surprise you and ultimately catch you unprepared! So, heed my warning with Lavonte David, and get out while you still can!
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