Fantasy football managers adore rookies. Given the choice between being too early on a player or holding on too late, most will choose the former. The allure of upside, of being the first to identify a future star, acts like a tractor beam on draft day. Sometimes, it works out brilliantly. But for every rookie breakout, there are far more busts. Even for well-pedigreed players, stepping into the NFL and dominating is no easy feat.

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With that in mind, it's understandable that Ladd McConkey is the first Chargers receiver to be drafted on average. The 6-foot-0, 185-pound receiver was drafted early in the second round (34th overall) out of the University of Georgia. A three-year contributor, McConkey was a crucial part of the Bulldogs' back-to-back national championships in 2021 and 2022. However, his statistical output didn't compare to many of the other rookie receivers drafted ahead of him. NFL draft scouts didn't hold his lesser statistical achievements against him for several reasons:

1. Georgia's offensive system was balanced and conservative
2. McConkey tested well in the pre-draft process
3. McConkey's film showed a polished route runner with sure hands

Career College Receiving Stats, Top 10 NFL Rookie Receivers

We must ask ourselves how likely Ladd McConkey is to return value for his draft cost. 

With an ADP of WR43 currently, the cost isn't prohibitive. For context, here are the comparable year-end numbers for the last five seasons:

Fantasy WR43s (2019-2023)

While those numbers don't feel aspirational, it's also fair to note that no one is drafting McConkey with those stats in mind. You're hoping to net a potential Top 25 fantasy asset for a discounted price, which brings us to his landing spot, the Los Angeles Chargers. While head coach Jim Harbaugh is the attention grabber, fantasy managers should focus on Harbaugh's offensive coordinator choice: Greg Roman.

Greg Roman's offenses are rarely WR-friendly

Greg Roman is an accomplished play-caller, and he worked with Harbaugh at Stanford and the San Francisco 49ers. He also spent several seasons in Baltimore, working with John Harbaugh (Jim's brother). There's little doubt that Roman will craft an offense that keeps the Chargers in contention. But it's also clear his offense will be run-heavy, leaving little margin for error if you're looking for fantasy gold among the receivers.

Greg Roman's NFL Offensive Passing Rankings

In 10 years as an NFL play-caller, Roman's teams have finished at or near the bottom of the league in pass attempts all but once, and they have averaged 19th in passing touchdowns. It's hard to get excited about Justin Herbert or his receivers if you're counting on volume to ensure success.

But does a low-volume passing attack guarantee a lack of fantasy-relevant receivers? 

Here's the good news: It's possible that the Chargers' top receiver could have fantasy value, even within Roman's system. Here's the bad news: it's neither probable nor is there room for multiple fantasy stars.

No. 1 Receivers, Greg Roman's NFL Offenses

• In five of ten seasons (50%), Roman's team has fielded a top-24 fantasy receiver
• On average, the No. 1 receiver has finished as the No. 33 fantasy receiver
• Roman has NEVER fielded a top-12 fantasy receiver

No. 2 Receivers, Greg Roman's NFL Offenses

• Roman's No. 2 receiver has never finished inside the Top 40
• On average, the No. 2 receiver has finished as the 75th-ranked receiver

In other words, Ladd McConkey MUST be the team's leading receiver, or he's likely to have little to no fantasy value, even in deeper leagues.

So, how confident are we McConkey will be the top option? Let's look at the projected depth chart:

• Joshua Palmer -- Incumbent 4th-year receiver who missed seven games last season, has never eclipsed 800 receiving yards or four touchdowns
• DJ Chark -- Free agent journeyman playing for the fourth team in four seasons. Talented but oft-injured and hasn't had a fantasy-relevant season since 2019
• Ladd McConkey -- Rookie, second-rounder. He's viewed as a slot receiver at the NFL level but played the majority of his snaps on the outside at Georgia
• Quentin Johnston -- Incumbent 2nd-year receiver who was the team's first-round draft choice a year ago. Struggled with consistency as a rookie but did start ten games 
• Brenden Rice -- Rookie, seventh-rounder who spent time at USC and Colorado. The son of Jerry Rice but viewed as a development prospect
• Derius Davis -- Incumbent 2nd-year receiver who had just 15 receptions as a rookie
• Simi Fehoko -- Incumbent 4th-year receiver who has just four career catches 

No one on the Chargers roster is more likely to be the team's No. 1 receiver than McConkey. Chark will have his supporters, and according to Daniel Popper, he is already pushing Johnston for one of the outside receiver spots. However, it's hard to feel confident about a player with Chark's injury history and inability to stick on a roster. Palmer could be a dark horse, but he hasn't been able to dislodge Keenan Allen or the oft-injured Mike Williams for three seasons.

The problem is McConkey's ADP will rise with a strong camp

If we had the luxury of watching training camp reports closely and drafting McConkey at WR43 after weeks of confirmation from camp observers, it would be a dice roll worth taking. But we know that won't happen. If McConkey stands out in camp and early preseason game action, the animal spirits will take over, and his ADP will rise. I wouldn't be surprised if McConkey is drafted as a top-30 receiver if he's the clear-cut No. 1 during camp. And history tells us that you have a 50% chance of the Chargers No. 1 receiver being a top-24 fantasy asset, with virtually no chance of him breaking out as a top-12 option. 

Ladd McConkey's 2024 Projections

Final Thoughts

If you're reading this before training camps begin and have an early draft (or perhaps some best balls), it's a reasonable bet to draft Ladd McConkey at his current ADP (WR43). However, we have overwhelming evidence that Greg Roman's offenses cannot support more than one fantasy receiver. Even then, there's only a 50% chance they'll deliver top-24 value. Whichever Chargers receiver you decide to roll the dice on must be the No. 1 option to deliver fantasy value. It's the ultimate boom or bust proposition. Does Ladd McConkey have better odds of being the No. 1 target than his teammates? Yes. But his ceiling is limited even if he lands the top role, and if he ends up as the No. 2 or No. 3 target, he's going to be unrosterable. Those aren't the kind of odds I'm looking for with a speculative rookie pick. Drafting rookies is always about league-winning upside, and McConkey's situation won't allow for it. You're trying to land a plane on a very narrow runway, particularly if his ADP rises with a strong preseason.

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