Widely considered to be an elite NFL quarterback, there seem to be similar expectations for Justin Herbert's fantasy production. Is that warranted for the 2024 season? Let's find out where those expectations should be set.

For the third consecutive season, Justin Herbert and the Chargers will open the season with a new offensive coordinator. Unlike last season, when the Chargers hired a fantasy-friendly offensive coordinator, this newest regime change might be a cause for concern. Both new head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman favor running the football. Will Herbert be successful for fantasy managers in a run-first offense?

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Justin Herbert’s Career So Far

Through his first three seasons, Herbert's stats spoke for themselves. He was a consistent fantasy performer, racking up three straight top-10 fantasy finishes. As a rookie, he threw 31 touchdowns and added another five rushing. In 2021, he was the third-best quarterback in fantasy, throwing for over 5000 yards and 41 total touchdowns. While 2022 saw a step back in yardage and touchdowns, it was still another Top 10 season for fantasy managers. So, heading into the 2023 season, expectations were high.

The Chargers hired Kellen Moore, whose Dallas offenses averaged 34 passing touchdowns over the previous two seasons. His hiring was supposed to get Herbert back on track after a slightly down 2022. Instead, Herbert played just 13 games and finished as the 17th-ranked fantasy quarterback. It wasn’t all bad, as his points-per-game paced as the 10th-best quarterback in fantasy, but the raw numbers are concerning. He only threw the ball 456 times, and while that seemed low a year ago, it could be the new normal for the Chargers.

Enter Greg Roman

The 2023 Chargers were a disappointing team, and both Moore and head coach Brandon Staley were fired. That opened the door for Jim Harbaugh, one of the league’s most courted head coach candidates, and the team won him over. To run his offense, Harbaugh brought in Greg Roman, who had previously worked for John Harbaugh in Baltimore.

The Ravens’ teams under Romans were some of the best in the league at running the football. They also averaged just 486 pass attempts per year, which is 29 attempts per game. This pace would represent a significant step back for Herbert, who averages 39 attempts per game over his career.

The lack of volume doesn’t mean Roman couldn’t produce fantasy-relevant quarterbacks. During his tenure with the Ravens, Lamar Jackson never averaged fewer than 22 fantasy points per game and was even the best quarterback in fantasy during the 2019 season. However, Jackson got things done with his legs. With just 911 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns in his career, rushing is not the strength of Herbert’s game. Jackson beat that yardage total with seven touchdowns in his 2019 campaign alone. Justin Herbert is not Lamar Jackson.

Prior to Jackson, Roman worked with Joe Flacco, a more stereotypical pocket passer. While the Ravens threw the ball more, it did not lead to fantasy success. In his two seasons with Flacco, Roman was the assistant head coach, not the offensive coordinator. Still, the team threw the ball 35 times per game, better than with Jackson, but still not the pace we’ve seen from Herbert. Flacco didn’t finish better than 24th in fantasy during those seasons. For Herbert to succeed, Roman’s scheme will need a major change from his time in Baltimore, but the transition might be rocky.

 A Changing Landscape in Los Angeles

On top of learning an entirely new offense, Herbert will also be without many of his key weapons from last season. There is usually cause for panic if a quarterback loses one of his top receivers; Herbert has lost four. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett, who accounted for a combined 320 targets last season, will all be playing elsewhere in 2024.

The team still has Joshua Palmer, and there is hope Quentin Johnston will bounce back from a disappointing rookie season. Palmer has played well over the last two seasons, but neither he nor Johnston has the skill set to replace Keenan Allen. The Chargers did draft Ladd McConkey and added Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, D.J. Chark, and Will Dissly in free agency, but it’s safe to say this new cast of playmakers adds another layer of uncertainty.

Is It Time to Panic on Justin Herbert?

Considering all these factors, it is easy to see why Herbert has fallen to 20th in Footballguys Draft Rankings. Looking at his 2023 season might give us a glimpse of what is to come in 2024. Last year, Herbert missed four games and finished with just over 450 pass attempts. If Greg Roman remains true to his 30-35 passing attempts per game average, 510-600 passes are the most we’ll see from the Chargers in 2024. Herbert has never finished a full season with fewer than 595 pass attempts, and falling below that milestone feels like an inevitability in 2024

With those limited passes in 2023, Herbert finished with 3134 passing yards and 20 passing touchdowns, ranking 17th in fantasy. Based on Roman’s history, we could see an improvement in passing touchdowns, as his Ravens’ offenses averaged 23 passing touchdowns per season. Still, hitting that number could be challenging with a weakened supporting cast. Furthermore, even if you added three more touchdowns to Herbert’s 2023 totals, his rank still wouldn’t improve, as he was 18 points behind the next quarterback. 

Notably, Herbert also ran the ball 52 times last season, the highest average of his career at four carries per game. Spread out over an entire 17-game season, we could see 65-70 carries from Herbert, whose previous high is 63 carries back in 2021. It won’t approach what Lamar Jackson did in this offense, but an additional 350 rushing yards will give Herbert a much-needed boost.

Conclusion

As we gear up for the 2024 season, it's crucial to temper our expectations for Justin Herbert in fantasy. While he's shown flashes of brilliance in the past, the current circumstances in Los Angeles raise questions about his fantasy outlook. Unless we see significant changes in Roman's approach or a surge in Herbert's rushing production, we'll likely get a repeat of last season's performance. So, while Herbert's ADP may be dropping, fantasy managers should approach cautiously, knowing that his upside may be limited in the upcoming season.

Justin Herbert's Past Stats

Justin Herbert 2024 Projections

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