Jaylen Waddle has been in the league for three years, during which we've witnessed three distinctly different seasons. In 2024 fantasy football drafts, he is positioned among a competitive tier of WR2s. Despite this, Waddle stands out due to his higher floor and ceiling compared to others in this group. Recency bias from an injury-plagued 2023 season has skewed his consensus perception, making him one of the best values to target in drafts.
Rookie Season – An Immediate Star
Jaylen Waddle was drafted sixth overall by the Miami Dolphins in the 2021 NFL Draft. The lofty draft capital immediately set high expectations. A prolific college career pushed him into the top 10 of a strong draft class alongside Ja'Marr Chase and DeVonta Smith. Waddle reunited with his Alabama quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, during the 2021 offseason. Their strong connection at Alabama, despite a hip injury ending Tagovailoa's college career early, fueled excitement for their NFL reunion.
In his rookie season with the Dolphins, Waddle was immediately the team's WR1, seeing almost twice as many targets as any other receiver. Tagovailoa suffered an early-season injury, resulting in a disappointing finish for both players. Waddle's WR34 finish as a rookie was underwhelming from a fantasy perspective, but he was 10th in the NFL in targets and 17th in target share, pulling 24.8% of the team's targets. Despite elite usage, he wasn't especially efficient, ranking 88th in target depth and 42nd in yards per route run. His touches were mostly at or near the line of scrimmage, and he ranked 92nd in yards after the catch per reception. Waddle had a massive role but wasn't doing much with it.
Year Two – Learning to Play Second Fiddle
Waddle's situation changed dramatically going into Year 2. The Dolphins fired head coach Brian Flores and hired rookie head coach Mike McDaniel. The team also made a blockbuster trade to acquire superstar receiver Tyreek Hill. McDaniel's unconventional tendencies made the direction of the Dolphins uncertain. Many fans questioned Tagovailoa's ability to lead an NFL offense after a disappointing start to his career.
However, all offseason concerns were quickly put to rest. In Tagovailoa's first two games with McDaniel, he racked up 739 passing yards and seven touchdowns. Excluding a Week 4 game where he left early with an injury, Tagovailoa's 17-game pace in 2022 was 4,871 yards and 35 passing touchdowns. The boom in Miami's offense was surprising, primarily due to the addition of Tyreek Hill. Hill's target share jumped from 25.1% in 2022 to 31.3% in 2023, the second-highest in the league behind only Cooper Kupp. Hill set career highs in targets, receptions, and yards, as McDaniel unlocked him as a versatile and game-breaking weapon.
Unfortunately, Jaylen Waddle took a backseat to Hill. His target share fell to 21.6%, his snap share dipped, and he moved from the slot to out wide. Despite the decrease in usage, Waddle's efficiency skyrocketed. His average target depth jumped from 6.3 to 12.1 yards, and he ranked fourth in the NFL in yards per route run. He led all wide receivers in yards per target and yards per reception, taking on an entirely new role in the offense and making plays after the catch.
A Disappointing Third Season
This made Jaylen Waddle an extremely desirable target heading into 2023 fantasy football drafts. He had displayed both the ability to be a target hog and an efficiency monster, capable of operating efficiently alongside Hill while maintaining league-winning upside if Hill were to miss any time.
In 2023, Waddle's Year 1 usage and Year 2 efficiency converged. His target share jumped from 21.6% to 23.4%, and his target rate increased from 24.0% to 25.5%, the tenth highest in the NFL. Despite the spike in usage, he maintained elite efficiency with 2.68 yards per route run, eighth among all wide receivers. He kept his average target depth above ten yards while generating the 12th-most yards after the catch per reception. Tagovailoa led the league in passing yards, continuing his strong performance from 2022.
Jaylen Waddle Key Metrics (2021-2023)
| Season | Target share | Target Rate | Yards Per Route | Target Depth | Yards After Contact Per Reception | Yards Per Target | Snap Share | PFF Receiving Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 24.80% | 26.20% | 1.87 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 84.20% | 78.3 |
| 2022 | 21.60% | 24.00% | 2.81 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 11.7 | 74.50% | 82.6 |
| 2023 | 23.40% | 25.50% | 2.68 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 9.8 | 68.80% | 90.3 |
However, Waddle missed three games due to injury, and injuries limited him in other games. After playing 70%+ of the offensive snaps in 85% of his outings through his first two seasons, he played that much in just 43% of his 2023 contests.
Jaylen Waddle's Stats
| Season | Games | Rushes | RuYards | RuTDs | Targets | Receptions | ReYards | ReTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 142 | 104 | 1015 | 6 | 1 |
| 2022 | 17 | 3 | 26 | 0 | 117 | 75 | 1356 | 8 | 1 |
| 2023 | 14 | 3 | 12 | 0 | 104 | 72 | 1014 | 4 | 0 |
Jaylen Waddle 2024 Projections
| Projector | Games | Rushes | RuYards | RuTDs | Receptions | ReYards | ReTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Footballguys Consensus | 16.1 | 2.9 | 15 | 0.0 | 83.2 | 1164 | 5.4 | 0.5 |
| Justin Freeman | 16.0 | 4.5 | 23 | 0.2 | 87.8 | 1234 | 5.4 | 0.0 |
| Bob Henry | 16.0 | 3.0 | 15 | 0.0 | 82.0 | 1165 | 6.0 | 1.0 |
| Maurile Tremblay | 17.0 | 3.0 | 17 | 0.0 | 81.2 | 1119 | 4.9 | 0.8 |
| Jason Wood | 16.0 | 2.0 | 10 | 0.0 | 83.0 | 1145 | 5.0 | 0.0 |
Final Thoughts
Jaylen Waddle has proven he can do everything expected of an elite wide receiver in fantasy football. He garners targets, his usage comes deep downfield, he can make plays after the catch, and he's part of a strong offense. Drafters burned by Waddle's injuries last year are making him a great value in 2024 drafts. The Dolphins gifted him a contract worth over $100M this offseason, showing their confidence in his abilities.
The concerns about Jaylen Waddle are either unwarranted or have already been disproven. Tua Tagovailoa can lead an explosive passing attack, and Waddle can coexist alongside Tyreek Hill. Health was the only thing that kept Waddle's production at bay last year. Assuming he stays healthy in 2024, finishing as a top-ten wide receiver is not only possible but likely.
