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Not Everyone Is a Sleeper or a Bust
Fantasy managers are desperate to identify value, which works in both directions. Finding sleepers who vastly outperform their average draft position is always the goal. Avoiding players who are being drafted too early can be equally valuable. But the less-than-sexy truth is that quite a few players are drafted in the appropriate slot given a fair assessment of their most likely range of outcomes.
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Before publishing my first set of projections this season, I pegged Jayden Reed as a potential "must draft." After a promising rookie season where he outperformed teammates including Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson, he seemed likely to cement his status as the Packers' No. 1 receiver this year.
However, this is why the discipline of detailed projections can pay dividends. Once I started building out my Packers model and delving deeper into the team's offensive strategy, play-calling, and touch distribution, I came away with a different view of Reed. To be clear, I still expect him to lead the Packers receiving group; if he stays healthy, he should be the top fantasy scorer. But the Packers are one of the most balanced teams in the league, and Reed needs a substantial increase in his workload to project a top-24 season credibly. He's a WR3 with upside, precisely where his ADP puts him.
A Promising Rookie Season, with Caveats
Jayden Reed was selected in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. The 5-foot-11, 187-pound receiver out of Michigan State was a four-year contributor (including his rookie season at Western Michigan), amassing 203 receptions for 2,866 yards and 26 touchdowns. Despite a high draft pedigree, fantasy managers weren't particularly excited about his prospects as a rookie (ADP: WR70) for several reasons.
- Quarterback Jordan Love wasn't viewed highly (ADP: QB26)
- Christian Watson (ADP: WR20) was a preseason favorite after his promising rookie season in 2022
- Romeo Doubs (ADP: WR53) was seen as the likely No. 2 in Green Bay
As we now know, things went far better in Green Bay than preseason expectations implied. Jordan Love had a breakout season, finishing at the QB7 (on a per-game basis), and Reed played a big part in the team's success.
Green Bay Packers Wide Receivers, 2023
| Player | Tgts | Recs | RecYds | YPRec | RecTDs | RECFPTs | Snaps | FPTs/Snap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Reed | 94 | 64 | 793 | 12.2 | 8 | 191.3 | 578 | 0.331 |
| Romeo Doubs | 93 | 59 | 674 | 11.4 | 8 | 174.4 | 845 | 0.206 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 57 | 39 | 581 | 14.9 | 4 | 121.1 | 458 | 0.264 |
| Christian Watson | 48 | 28 | 422 | 15.1 | 5 | 100.2 | 446 | 0.225 |
| Bo Melton | 24 | 16 | 218 | 13.6 | 1 | 43.8 | 139 | 0.315 |
| Malik Heath | 24 | 15 | 125 | 8.3 | 1 | 33.5 | 260 | 0.129 |
| Samori Toure | 17 | 8 | 78 | 9.8 | 0 | 15.8 | 139 | 0.114 |
Reed led the receiving corps in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns (tied with Doubs). He averaged 0.331 receiving fantasy points per snap, far outpacing his teammates. He also ran 11 times for 119 yards and two rushing touchdowns. Reed finished as the WR26 (PPR).
To be clear, there's a LOT to like about Jayden Reed based on his rookie excellence. So if a rookie finishes WR26 and has an ADP of WR35 the following season, what's not to like?
Caveat No. 1 -- His rushing stats were probably unsustainable
Rushing stats count and can be a big part of a receiver's value -- ask Deebo Samuel Sr. However, very few receivers have a defined role as rushing threats, and relying on small sample sizes is unwise. Reed rushed for 119 yards and scored two touchdowns on 11 rushing attempts. History tells us he's unlikely to match that mark again.
Receivers with at least 100 rushing yards and 2 rushing touchdowns in a season (2014-2023)
| Name | Year | Age | Gms | Rush | RuYds | YPRush | RuTDs | RushFPTs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 2023 | 24 | 17 | 14 | 113 | 8.1 | 2 | 23.3 |
| Curtis Samuel | 2020 | 24 | 15 | 41 | 200 | 4.9 | 2 | 32.0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2023 | 27 | 15 | 37 | 225 | 6.1 | 5 | 52.5 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2022 | 26 | 13 | 42 | 232 | 5.5 | 3 | 41.2 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2019 | 23 | 15 | 14 | 159 | 11.4 | 3 | 33.9 |
| Jayden Reed | 2023 | 23 | 16 | 11 | 119 | 10.8 | 2 | 23.9 |
| Robert Woods | 2020 | 28 | 16 | 24 | 155 | 6.5 | 2 | 27.5 |
| Tavon Austin | 2014 | 24 | 15 | 36 | 224 | 6.2 | 2 | 34.4 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2020 | 26 | 15 | 13 | 123 | 9.5 | 2 | 24.3 |
| Tyreek Hill | 2016 | 22 | 16 | 24 | 267 | 11.1 | 3 | 44.7 |
As the table shows, there have only been ten instances of a receiver netting 100-plus rushing yards and two-plus rushing touchdowns, including three last year (Reed, Samuel, and CeeDee Lamb). Samuel has done it three times, and Tyreek Hill has done it twice. But you'll note Hill's instances came four years apart. No other receiver managed to repeat the feat. It's exceedingly hard.
Caveat No. 2 -- He was a low-end WR3 based solely on his receiving role
Reed was the 35th-best receiver last year if we exclude everyone's rushing output. In other words, his year-end fantasy ranking jumped an entire tier (9 spots) thanks to those rushing stats. If you think his rushing output is unrepeatable, as I do, then we need Reed to have a commensurate increase in his receiving output to justify ranking him higher than his current ADP.
Top 40 Fantasy Receivers (Receiving Stats Only, Sorted Per-Game)
| Rank | Name | Gms | Recs | RecYds | YPRec | RecTDs | RecFTP/Gm |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyreek Hill MIA | 16 | 119 | 1,799 | 15.1 | 13 | 23.6 |
| 2 | CeeDee Lamb DAL | 17 | 135 | 1,749 | 13.0 | 12 | 22.5 |
| 3 | Keenan Allen LAC | 13 | 108 | 1,243 | 11.5 | 7 | 21.1 |
| 4 | Amon-Ra St. Brown DET | 16 | 119 | 1,515 | 12.7 | 10 | 20.7 |
| 5 | Justin Jefferson MIN | 10 | 68 | 1,074 | 15.8 | 5 | 20.5 |
| 6 | A.J. Brown PHI | 17 | 106 | 1,456 | 13.7 | 7 | 17.3 |
| 7 | Nico Collins HOU | 15 | 80 | 1,297 | 16.2 | 8 | 17.2 |
| 8 | Puka Nacua LAR | 17 | 105 | 1,486 | 14.2 | 6 | 17.0 |
| 9 | Mike Evans TB | 17 | 79 | 1,255 | 15.9 | 13 | 16.6 |
| 10 | DJ Moore CHI | 17 | 96 | 1,364 | 14.2 | 8 | 16.5 |
| 11 | Ja'Marr Chase CIN | 16 | 100 | 1,216 | 12.2 | 7 | 16.5 |
| 12 | Stefon Diggs BUF | 17 | 107 | 1,183 | 11.1 | 8 | 16.1 |
| 13 | Brandon Aiyuk SF | 16 | 75 | 1,342 | 17.9 | 7 | 15.7 |
| 14 | Davante Adams LV | 17 | 103 | 1,144 | 11.1 | 8 | 15.6 |
| 15 | Michael Pittman Jr IND | 16 | 109 | 1,152 | 10.6 | 4 | 15.5 |
| 16 | Amari Cooper CLE | 15 | 72 | 1,250 | 17.4 | 5 | 15.1 |
| 17 | Tank Dell HOU | 11 | 47 | 709 | 15.1 | 7 | 14.5 |
| 18 | DeVonta Smith PHI | 16 | 81 | 1,066 | 13.2 | 7 | 14.4 |
| 19 | Chris Olave NO | 16 | 87 | 1,123 | 12.9 | 5 | 14.3 |
| 20 | Jaylen Waddle MIA | 14 | 72 | 1,014 | 14.1 | 4 | 14.1 |
| 21 | DK Metcalf SEA | 16 | 66 | 1,114 | 16.9 | 8 | 14.1 |
| 22 | Cooper Kupp LAR | 12 | 59 | 737 | 12.5 | 5 | 13.6 |
| 23 | Adam Thielen CAR | 17 | 103 | 1,014 | 9.8 | 4 | 13.4 |
| 24 | Rashee Rice KC | 16 | 79 | 938 | 11.9 | 7 | 13.4 |
| 25 | Calvin Ridley JAX | 17 | 76 | 1,016 | 13.4 | 8 | 13.3 |
| 26 | DeAndre Hopkins TEN | 17 | 75 | 1,057 | 14.1 | 7 | 13.1 |
| 27 | Jordan Addison MIN | 17 | 70 | 911 | 13.0 | 10 | 13.0 |
| 28 | Christian Kirk JAX | 12 | 57 | 787 | 13.8 | 3 | 12.8 |
| 29 | Garrett Wilson NYJ | 17 | 95 | 1,042 | 11.0 | 3 | 12.8 |
| 30 | Deebo Samuel Sr. SF | 15 | 60 | 892 | 14.9 | 7 | 12.7 |
| 31 | Jakobi Meyers LV | 16 | 71 | 807 | 11.4 | 8 | 12.5 |
| 32 | Courtland Sutton DEN | 16 | 59 | 772 | 13.1 | 10 | 12.3 |
| 33 | George Pickens PIT | 17 | 63 | 1,140 | 18.1 | 5 | 12.2 |
| 34 | Zay Flowers BAL | 16 | 77 | 858 | 11.1 | 5 | 12.1 |
| 35 | Jayden Reed GB | 16 | 64 | 793 | 12.4 | 8 | 12.0 |
| 36 | Terry McLaurin WAS | 17 | 79 | 1,002 | 12.7 | 4 | 12.0 |
| 37 | Diontae Johnson PIT | 13 | 51 | 717 | 14.1 | 5 | 11.7 |
| 38 | Tyler Lockett SEA | 17 | 79 | 894 | 11.3 | 5 | 11.7 |
| 39 | Chris Godwin TB | 17 | 83 | 1,024 | 12.3 | 2 | 11.6 |
| 40 | Tee Higgins CIN | 12 | 42 | 656 | 15.6 | 5 | 11.5 |
Caveat No. 3 -- He was clearly the team's No. 3 receiver when everyone was healthy
Let's start with a look at the regular season snap counts for the Packers' receivers.
Green Bay Packers Wide Receivers, Snap Count (Weeks 1-18)
| Player | Snaps | Snap% |
|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 845 | 80.3% |
| Jayden Reed | 578 | 54.9% |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 458 | 43.5% |
| Christian Watson | 446 | 42.4% |
| Malik Heath | 260 | 24.7% |
| Bo Melton | 139 | 13.2% |
| Samori Toure | 139 | 13.2% |
Doubs played over 80% of the regular-season snaps, but no one else even hit the 60% mark. Injuries played a role, particularly for Watson. The top four -- Doubs, Reed, Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks -- only played together nine times last season (Weeks 4-5 and 7-13). Here's how the snap count looked when head coach Matt LaFleur had everyone at his disposal:
Green Bay Packers Wide Receivers, Snap Count (Weeks when the top 4 were all active)
| Player | Snaps | Snap% |
|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 475 | 81.9% |
| Christian Watson | 446 | 76.9% |
| Jayden Reed | 335 | 57.8% |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 185 | 31.9% |
You'll note that Reed's snap share was largely constant, with Watson playing nearly 80% of snaps when all four top guys were available. And the usage levels were equally discouraging in the Packers two playoff games:
Green Bay Packers Wide Receivers, Snap Count (2023 Playoffs)
| Player | Snaps | Snap% |
|---|---|---|
| Romeo Doubs | 93 | 75.6% |
| Jayden Reed | 67 | 54.5% |
| Christian Watson | 60 | 48.8% |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 58 | 47.2% |
| Bo Melton | 39 | 31.7% |
| Malik Heath | 0 | 0.0% |
| Samori Toure | 0 | 0.0% |
Even in the season's most important games, Reed's snap share didn't eclipse 60%. The team used Wicks and No. 5 Bo Melton a lot, too.
Caveat No. 4 -- The depth chart goes beyond the Top 3
As we noted above, Coach LaFleur believes in spreading the ball around. In weeks when Christian Watson was hurt, they didn't hesitate to use their other receivers. Wicks played more than 40% of snaps. Malik Heath played nearly 25% of snaps, and Melton and Samori Toure each clocked in at slightly more than 13%. It's also worth noting that both Wicks and Melton had very high fantasy points per snap, too. They didn't rank as highly as Reed in that category, but they were more impactful (per snap) than Doubs or Watson.
Caveat No. 5 -- The other positions are stacked with talent
The Packers have weapons up and down the roster. Most notably, they have two second-year tight ends who performed well as rookies. Luke Musgrave started nine games, and Tucker Kraft started the other eight, mainly when Musgrave was injured for a chunk of the second half of the season. When both are healthy, there's every reason to expect the Packers to make liberal use of 2-TE sets. With Reed being primarily a slot receiver (75.7% of snaps), he is potentially the biggest loser if Green Bay uses more 12-personnel this season.
Jayden Reed's Stats
| Season | Games | Rushes | RuYards | RuTDs | Targets | Receptions | ReYards | ReTDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 16 | 11 | 119 | 2 | 94 | 64 | 793 | 8 |
Jayden Reed's 2024 Projections
| Projector | Games | Rushes | RuYards | RuTDs | Receptions | ReYards | ReTDs | FumLost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Footballguys Consensus | 16.1 | 11.1 | 83 | 0.8 | 67.5 | 806 | 6.2 | 0.3 |
| Justin Freeman | 16.0 | 13.7 | 112 | 0.8 | 66.4 | 799 | 6.9 | 0.1 |
| Bob Henry | 16.0 | 11.0 | 85 | 1.0 | 69.0 | 815 | 6.0 | 0.5 |
| Maurile Tremblay | 17.0 | 11.0 | 65 | 0.1 | 67.1 | 777 | 6.3 | 0.8 |
| Jason Wood | 16.0 | 10.0 | 75 | 1.0 | 66.0 | 805 | 6.0 | 0.0 |
Final Thoughts
Jayden Reed had an impressive rookie season and looks set for a long NFL career, injuries permitting. He was a high-end WR3 last year in PPR scoring, benefiting from Jordan Love's breakout campaign and an injury-riddled year from Christian Watson. While it's tempting to believe Reed's role will skyrocket in Year Two, don't bet on it. He's the slot receiver on a team that utilizes its depth more than most. Coach LaFleur is a master of sub-package personnel groupings, so even an injury to Doubs or Watson would likely mean more snaps for players like Wicks, Melton, and the tight ends rather than vaulting Reed into a 75%-80% snap share.
Unless we're wrong and the coaches plan on using Reed more frequently on the outside, his fantasy ceiling is probably capped. Additionally, Jordan Love was 3rd in passing touchdowns last season but 12th in yards. Between Reed's rushing stats, high touchdown rate, and the injuries to other contributors, it's easy to look at his year-end fantasy ranking and think that's his floor. Reed is an ideal WR4 on draft day and a reasonably priced low-end WR3. Does he have paths that could lead to a higher finish? Of course, but the most likely outcome is a WR3 finish. In other words, Reed is being drafted exactly where he should be.
