Jayden Daniels: This Year's Boom or Bust QB

Photo: USA Today Sports

Commanders owner Josh Harris gave the current regime one season to win him over, but a disastrous 2023 made a wholesale teardown the logical path forward. Harris has replaced all the key pieces within the organization:

• General Manager -- Adam Peters replaces Martin Mayhew. Peters spent seven seasons in San Francisco, including the last three as the Assistant General Manager.
• Assistant General Manager -- Lance Newmark joins after 26 seasons with the Detroit Lions.
• Head Coach -- Dan Quinn replaced Ron Rivera. Quinn was the Atlanta Falcons head coach for six seasons before taking over the Cowboys defense three seasons ago. His defensive prowess is unquestioned, but many reports suggested Quinn wasn't the Commanders primary or secondary choice for the head job.
• Offensive Coordinator -- Kliff Kingsbury replaces Eric Bieniemy. Bieniemy's decision to leave Kansas City and prove himself outside of Andy Reid's shadow was a total failure, so the Commanders are turning the offense over to Kingsbury, the former Arizona Cardinals head coach best known as a "quarterback guru." 

However, perhaps the most significant move was selecting Jayden Daniels as the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. Fantasy managers are betting on immediate stardom for the dual-threat quarterback, and Commanders ownership hopes he'll become the face of the rebuilding franchise.

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Daniels currently has an ADP of QB12, making him the last projected fantasy starter in 12-team leagues. Our staff generally agrees, ranking him 11th. Nine staff members rank Daniels in the Top 12, while one has him QB17, and one dissenter ranks him down at QB26. Regardless of where we rank Daniels, we can all agree that his potential range of outcomes is among the widest in the position.

The Boom-or-Bust Contributing Factors

1. Daniels only had "one big year" at LSU
2. He's a rookie starter with no NFL track record
3. Kliff Kingsbury takes over as play-caller
4. Daniels' play style raises the injury risk
5. The WR/TE unit is light on proven commodities
6. The offensive line is a major question mark

1) The "One Big Year" Myth

One of the common criticisms thrown Daniels' way is that he played five college seasons and didn't put up gaudy numbers until his final season at LSU. 

Jayden Daniels College Stats (2019-2023)

Daniels' final season at LSU earned him the Heisman Trophy, as he amassed over 4,900 yards from scrimmage and 50 touchdowns. While it's true that 2023 was far and away his most impressive season, I'm not sure why it matters or should be viewed as a criticism.

Daniels started 55 games in college -- While we've gone a long way from the old Bill Parcells mantra that games started was the most important metric for scouting quarterbacks, there's still much to be said about starting experience. The NFL is littered with inexperienced college phenoms who get drafted on potential and flame out. While Daniels only had one ELITE season, he was a productive starter for more games than almost any quarterback drafted in the last decade. 

Other NFL starters have lesser college resumes -- Evaluating quarterbacks is exceedingly difficult, even for professional scouts and personnel executives. Just look at the first-round quarterbacks over the last 20 years, and you'll see as many forgotten names as Pro Bowlers. Yet, we seem to cherry-pick data points supporting our arguments for and against players. Why is Daniels' one great season, combined with four other years of experience, a risk when some of the league's most exciting starters were less proven?

• Josh Allen -- Allen played in 27 games at Wyoming against far lesser competition. And he didn't have any elite seasons unless you count his 2016 campaign: 3,700 yards from scrimmage and 35 touchdowns. But he also threw 15 interceptions.
• Joe Burrow -- Burrow is a perfect analog for Daniels. Both played elsewhere before transferring to LSU and starting for two seasons. Burrow, like Daniels, had modest numbers in his first season but delivered outstanding stats in his final season. Unlike Daniels, who started most of his career, Burrow was a backup at his former school (Ohio State).
• Kyler Murray -- Murray only had one big season as a starter before being drafted 1st overall. He only played in 29 college games versus Daniels' 55. 
• Anthony Richardson -- Richardson barely played at the University of Florida until his final season, and he was drafted despite his uninspiring stat line. He only completed 53.8% of his passes and threw for 2,549 yards, 17 touchdowns, and nine interceptions, with 654 rushing yards. 

2) He's a Rookie Starter with No Track Record

Fantasy football managers are preternaturally interested in rookies. We all love being armchair scouts and trying to be the first to hit big on a player. Yet, if you've played fantasy football long enough, you know that far more rookies get draft helium than is warranted once the regular season begins. 

Rookie Starting QBs (2014-2023, Minimum of 10 Games)

Thirty rookie quarterbacks have appeared in at least ten games over the last decade. While we tend to remember and romanticize breakout seasons from C.J. Stroud, Dak Prescott, and Justin Herbert, the results are actually far more mixed. On average, rookie quarterbacks have been unrosterable fantasy assets, averaging QB27 on a per-game basis. Yes, a few of these low-ranked players (e.g., Lamar Jackson) had late-season breakout performances, but the odds of having those players on your roster in 12-team redraft leagues were very low until they had a breakout game or two.