Commanders owner Josh Harris gave the current regime one season to win him over, but a disastrous 2023 made a wholesale teardown the logical path forward. Harris has replaced all the key pieces within the organization:

• General Manager -- Adam Peters replaces Martin Mayhew. Peters spent seven seasons in San Francisco, including the last three as the Assistant General Manager.
• Assistant General Manager -- Lance Newmark joins after 26 seasons with the Detroit Lions.
• Head Coach -- Dan Quinn replaced Ron Rivera. Quinn was the Atlanta Falcons head coach for six seasons before taking over the Cowboys defense three seasons ago. His defensive prowess is unquestioned, but many reports suggested Quinn wasn't the Commanders primary or secondary choice for the head job.
• Offensive Coordinator -- Kliff Kingsbury replaces Eric Bieniemy. Bieniemy's decision to leave Kansas City and prove himself outside of Andy Reid's shadow was a total failure, so the Commanders are turning the offense over to Kingsbury, the former Arizona Cardinals head coach best known as a "quarterback guru." 

However, perhaps the most significant move was selecting Jayden Daniels as the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft. Fantasy managers are betting on immediate stardom for the dual-threat quarterback, and Commanders ownership hopes he'll become the face of the rebuilding franchise.

RELATED: See the Spotlight on QB Jared Goff here >>>
RELATED: See the Spotlight on RB De'Von Achane here >>>

Daniels currently has an ADP of QB12, making him the last projected fantasy starter in 12-team leagues. Our staff generally agrees, ranking him 11th. Nine staff members rank Daniels in the Top 12, while one has him QB17, and one dissenter ranks him down at QB26. Regardless of where we rank Daniels, we can all agree that his potential range of outcomes is among the widest in the position.

The Boom-or-Bust Contributing Factors

1. Daniels only had "one big year" at LSU
2. He's a rookie starter with no NFL track record
3. Kliff Kingsbury takes over as play-caller
4. Daniels' play style raises the injury risk
5. The WR/TE unit is light on proven commodities
6. The offensive line is a major question mark

1) The "One Big Year" Myth

One of the common criticisms thrown Daniels' way is that he played five college seasons and didn't put up gaudy numbers until his final season at LSU. 

Jayden Daniels College Stats (2019-2023)

Daniels' final season at LSU earned him the Heisman Trophy, as he amassed over 4,900 yards from scrimmage and 50 touchdowns. While it's true that 2023 was far and away his most impressive season, I'm not sure why it matters or should be viewed as a criticism.

Daniels started 55 games in college -- While we've gone a long way from the old Bill Parcells mantra that games started was the most important metric for scouting quarterbacks, there's still much to be said about starting experience. The NFL is littered with inexperienced college phenoms who get drafted on potential and flame out. While Daniels only had one ELITE season, he was a productive starter for more games than almost any quarterback drafted in the last decade. 

Other NFL starters have lesser college resumes -- Evaluating quarterbacks is exceedingly difficult, even for professional scouts and personnel executives. Just look at the first-round quarterbacks over the last 20 years, and you'll see as many forgotten names as Pro Bowlers. Yet, we seem to cherry-pick data points supporting our arguments for and against players. Why is Daniels' one great season, combined with four other years of experience, a risk when some of the league's most exciting starters were less proven?

• Josh Allen -- Allen played in 27 games at Wyoming against far lesser competition. And he didn't have any elite seasons unless you count his 2016 campaign: 3,700 yards from scrimmage and 35 touchdowns. But he also threw 15 interceptions.
• Joe Burrow -- Burrow is a perfect analog for Daniels. Both played elsewhere before transferring to LSU and starting for two seasons. Burrow, like Daniels, had modest numbers in his first season but delivered outstanding stats in his final season. Unlike Daniels, who started most of his career, Burrow was a backup at his former school (Ohio State).
• Kyler Murray -- Murray only had one big season as a starter before being drafted 1st overall. He only played in 29 college games versus Daniels' 55. 
• Anthony Richardson -- Richardson barely played at the University of Florida until his final season, and he was drafted despite his uninspiring stat line. He only completed 53.8% of his passes and threw for 2,549 yards, 17 touchdowns, and nine interceptions, with 654 rushing yards. 

2) He's a Rookie Starter with No Track Record

Fantasy football managers are preternaturally interested in rookies. We all love being armchair scouts and trying to be the first to hit big on a player. Yet, if you've played fantasy football long enough, you know that far more rookies get draft helium than is warranted once the regular season begins. 

Rookie Starting QBs (2014-2023, Minimum of 10 Games)

Thirty rookie quarterbacks have appeared in at least ten games over the last decade. While we tend to remember and romanticize breakout seasons from C.J. Stroud, Dak Prescott, and Justin Herbert, the results are actually far more mixed. On average, rookie quarterbacks have been unrosterable fantasy assets, averaging QB27 on a per-game basis. Yes, a few of these low-ranked players (e.g., Lamar Jackson) had late-season breakout performances, but the odds of having those players on your roster in 12-team redraft leagues were very low until they had a breakout game or two.

3) Kliff Kingsbury has a Spotty Resume

Kliff Kingsbury accepting the offensive coordinator role was viewed as a boon by many, particularly because of his history coaching Patrick Mahomes II II at Texas Tech and working with Kyler Murray in Arizona. These experiences are testaments to his ability to build an offense around good quarterbacks, but is Kingsbury convincingly an above-average play-caller?

Kliff Kingsbury Offenses, Arizona Cardinals (2019-2022)

Kingsbury built an up-and-down track record in four seasons as the Cardinals' head coach. His teams averaged a 15th-place ranking in points scored and never cracked the Top 10. His running game was good (13th attempts, 12th yards, 8th touchdowns) overall but ranged from elite (2020) to subpar (2022). And his passing offense never hit on all cylinders, with the best finish in 2021 (10th in yards, 12th in touchdowns). You can find far worse play-calling resumes among current NFL coaches, but nothing we've seen so far suggests Kingsbury will be able to elevate the Commanders' personnel beyond the expected. 

4) Play Style Concerns

Despite winning the Heisman with video-game-like stats, draft analysts weren't universally convinced Daniels' college tape would seamlessly translate to the next level. For every Joe Burrow who put up ridiculous numbers in their final year and parlayed them into NFL success, there are Mac Jones' who put up eye-popping numbers (for multiple seasons) yet washed out in the pros. The concerns around Daniels are:

1. Reluctance to throw over the middle
2. Tendency to run over too quickly after the initial read
3. Running into contact
4. Inaccuracy outside of the pocket when the play breaks down

I'm not going to do a deep dive into each of these concerns but I would point you to the exceptional work of our own Matt Waldman and his Rookie Scouting Portfolio. Net-net, like most college players, Daniels will need to evolve his game. None of the mentioned concerns are insurmountable, but we can't KNOW that he'll overcome them until we see it on the field. 

5) The Receiving Corps (WRs/TEs) has Questions

There's only one proven option among the receivers: Terry McLaurin. That won't be enough for Daniels to have the kind of season to justify a top-12 ADP. Let's look at the projected 53-man roster entering camp:

Wide Receivers

1. Terry McLaurin — Entering his sixth season, McLaurin has delivered at least 77 catches and 1,000 yards in four consecutive seasons despite a poor supporting cast and inconsistent quarterback play. 
2. Jahan Dotson — Failed to build off a promising rookie season, ending up with just 49 catches, 518 yards (10.6 per catch), and four touchdowns last season. He's the X-factor. 
3. Luke McCaffrey — Christian's younger brother, McCaffrey is a former Rice quarterback who converted to receiver. While he has developmental upside, he ranked outside the consensus Top 20 at the position among rookie scouts. 
4. Dyami Brown — Has only 29 receptions in three seasons and has scored just three touchdowns. The chances of him playing a significant role look slim. 
5. Olamide Zaccheaus — Playing for his third team in six years, hoping to latch onto the roster after a disappointing 10-reception season in Philadelphia. 
6. Jamison Crowder — Entering his 10th season, Crowder had 16 catches for the Commanders last year but is mainly on the roster for his special teams value. 

Tight Ends

1. Zach Ertz — Returns for a 12th NFL season, but his days as an above-average receiver are long gone. He struggled with injuries and consistency in his last two seasons in Arizona. 
2. Ben Sinnott — Waldman loves Sinnott and graded him as the No. 2 tight end in the class behind Brock Bowers. If he's right (which is a bit out of consensus), Sinnott will greatly help Daniels as a rookie. However, rookie tight ends rarely make significant impacts, Sam LaPorta notwithstanding. 
3. John Bates — Bates has 53 career receptions and averaged less than 8 yards per catch in 2022 and 2023. He's an occasional turn-and-catch target with no upside. 
4. Cole Turner — A talented collegiate receiver, Turner hasn't been able to stay healthy (16 missed games in two seasons) and is fighting for a roster spot. 

Unless Sinnott is an instant-impact rookie and Dotson gets back on track, this could be among the worst receiving groups in the NFC. 

6) The Offensive Line is a Concern

Protecting young quarterbacks is paramount, particularly if you throw them into the fire as rookies. The Commanders brought in a handful of new options on the line, but they don't project to be an above-average unit this season.

Projected Starters:

• LT Cornelius Lucas — A journeyman who's been a part-time contributor for four seasons in Washington. He's getting a chance to be the starter this year, although rookie Brandon Coleman will push him. 
• LG Nick Allegretti — Long-time Chiefs backup who's played just 443 snaps over the last three seasons.
• C Tyler Biadasz — Free agent signing from rival Cowboys, where he was the full-time starter for the last three seasons. Despite his experience on a good offense, he's graded below league average as a starter, per PFF.
• RG Sam Cosmi — The one legitimate asset on the line, Cosmi is coming off an excellent season, his first as a full-time starter. 
• RT Andrew Wylie — Long-time contributor in Kansas City who joined the Commanders last year and struggled. PFF ranked him as the 56th tackle, toward the bottom of NFL starters. 

Rankings:

• Footballguys Matt Bitonti Rank: 29th
• ProFootballFocus Rank: 27th

Bobby Johnson as offensive line coach. The Commanders hired Bobby Johnson as the offensive line coach. He's got 25-plus years of coaching experience and has been an NFL offensive line coach since 2019, when he took over the Bills' unit. Although he was well-regarded in Buffalo, his stint with the Giants (he followed Brian Daboll to New York) was a disaster, and he was fired this offseason after two years of abysmal line play. Is that the kind of coach you want to get the most out of a piecemeal offensive line?