We are nearly a quarter of the way through the NFL season, but for some, most of their fantasy team has been decimated by injury. Week 4 was not any different as the injuries continued. I discuss this in more detail below.
Key: Position Player, Team | Injury | Projected Return to Play
QB Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis | Hip Pointer/Oblique | Projecting Week 5 Return
Anthony Richardson was unable to make it through the first quarter of Sunday's win vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers. Richardson injured his hip during a long scramble, missed a few snaps, returned, and then exited again for good.
Following the game, the Colts revealed that Richardson is dealing with a hip pointer. When asked about the injury, the Colt's QB downplayed the severity.
While hip pointers do not result in structural damage; considered relatively minor, they are painful. Multiple NFL players have missed time with hip pointers and it was severe enough to keep Richardson out most of the game.
Should Richardson play in Week 5, could be less mobile. 43% of Richardson's fantasy points this season have come from his legs. Avoiding contact has never been Richardson's forte, but he should make it a priority so he can make it through the season.
Update: After originally being diagnosed with a hip pointer, Tom Pelissero from the NFL network reported that Richardson is "day-to-day with oblique and abdominal strains." If this is the case, it would be a similar injury that sidelined Ken Walker III for 2 weeks and while we cannot make one-for-one comparisons with injuries it does provide some insight to the severity.
Regardless of the injury specifics, these are painful injuries that won't necessarily get worse if Richardson plays through them but they can be difficult to deal with. I originally projected Richardson to play this week (Week 5) but I would not be shocked to see him miss based on this new information.
WR Christian Watson, Green Bay | High ankle sprain | Projecting Week 8 Return
Christian Watson was unable to finish Sunday's contest vs. Minnesota due to an ankle injury. The early belief is that Watson suffered a high ankle sprain.
Typically high ankle sprains carry a lengthy absence (average of 5 weeks) with very few players not missing any games (9%). A large majority of NFL WRs missed 2+ weeks, which is why as of now, I have him projected to return in Week 8.
I also would not rule out the possibility of Watson landing on the Packer's IR to give him ample time to recover, but we will have to see what Green Bay has to say about his injury this week.
Update: Watson is unlikely to be placed on IR as the Packers have reported he is dealing with "a mild high ankle sprain." Week 5 still seems like a long shot and I would have a backup plan if your fantasy team was relying on Watson.
WR Rashee Rice, Kansas City | Knee Injury (Likely ACL) | Likely Season-Ending
While trying to tackle a defender following an Patrick Mahomes II interception, Rashee Rice injured his right knee. By video, Rice's knee appeared to hyperextend – the mechanism for ACL/LCL tear.
Right knee hyperextends for Rashee Rice pic.twitter.com/LzUztxlc2X
— Adam Hutchison (@TheRealAdam_H) September 29, 2024
Early reports from Kansas City echo this concern about an ACL tear. If this were the case, Rice's 2024 season would be over.
Although this weekly article focuses on redraft, if you do roster Rice in dynasty, typically WRs with his skill set and attributes do well the year following their ACL tear. There is however a wrinkle that complicates matters as the NFL could still enforce disciplinary action against Rice pending felony charges for his Dallas racing incident.
Update: Well, there really isn't an update...at least not till next week. Rice has been ruled out for Week 5 but is seeking a second opinion for his knee. It would seem there is a glimmer of hope that Rice did not sustain an ACL tear. However, it's still possible he will miss a significant portion/remainder of the fantasy football season.
WR Malik Nabers, NY Giants | Concussion | Projecting Week 6 Return
Amidst his rookie breakout this past Thursday, Malik Nabers suffered a concussion. On average NFL WRs miss 1.4 weeks with concussions and 75% miss at least one game. Since Nabers played on Thursday, the extra 3 days could improve his odds of returning in Week 5, but for now, I am projecting the rookie misses next week.
Practice this week could be very telling, but even limited participation (LP) should not necessarily provide a ton of confidence. Since 2017, only 60% of players with LP following a concussion end up playing that week. A full participation in practice (FP) would go a long way. 85% of players with FP following concussion start that week.
RB Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis | High Ankle Sprain | Projecting Week 7 Return.
Like his QB, Jonathan Taylor was unable to finish the game in Week 4. The former Badger was removed from the game with an ankle injury. Per NFL insider Ian Rapoport – Taylor has been diagnosed with a high ankle sprain.
Rapoport posted that his source said Taylor's injury was "pretty mild."
On average, high ankle sprains result in multi-week absences, but there is a small subset of NFL backs who missed <2 games (30% of the sample).
I expect Taylor not to practice at the start of the week, but based on historical comps, even a limited practice session would give him a 50% chance of playing. Week 5 feels like a long shot. Week 6 is possible. Week 7-8 seems more likely.
The timeline of Taylor's injury could tell us a lot about its severity and, in turn, give us an idea of his rest of season outlook. RBs who miss at least one game with a high ankle sprain average a 17% decline in fantasy points compared to pre-injury levels. Those RBs who do not miss any time continue along their normal trajectory. This could be the difference between Taylor being a top-10 or top-20 RB.
Update: Taylor is not an IR candidate according to Colt's HC Shane Steichen. I suggest following Indy's practice reports as I still project Taylor to sit out in Week 5. Trey Sermon is the next man up with Tyler Goodson likely to be mixed in as well.
TE, QB Taysom Hill, New Orleans | Rib Injury | Projecting Week 7 Return
After missing Week 3 with a chest injury, Taysom Hill was removed from Sunday with a rib injury. It's very possible this is the same injury/re-injury, and as a result, I envision Hill missing some time. Unless we hear otherwise, it would be surprising if Hill practiced at all this week.
QB Justin Herbert, LA Chargers | Ankle Injury | Projecting Week 6 Return
Before anyone freaks out, Justin Herbert did not sustain a new injury this weekend. Herbert continues to play through his high ankle sprains and is lucky for his and the Chargers their bye week in this upcoming week (Week 5).
Just in time.
However, watching the game, Herbert is clearly limited by this injury. Most NFL quarterbacks miss at least two weeks when recovering from high ankle sprains. I wanted to bring awareness to this situation. If Herbert continues to hobble and irritate his ankle, the Chargers could step in. Hopefully, the bye week will provide Herbert with the rest he needs.
RB Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville | Shoulder Injury | Projecting Week 5 Return
Travis Etienne Jr. missed a chunk of the first quarter with a shoulder injury. Etienne did return, and by all accounts, it seems like his injury is minor. Etienne likely plays next week, but because he is not 100%, opportunity has emerged for Tank Bigby who has looked good in limited action. Injury cedes opportunity, and it's possible that Etienne might be looking at a timeshare moving forward.
QB Will Levis, Tennessee | Shoulder (Likely AC Joint Sprain | Projecting Week 6 Return
Will Levis was unable to finish Monday's game due to a shoulder injury. Tennessee is still waiting further testing but it sounds like Levis avoided a major injury and is dealing with an AC joint sprain. Typically this can be a 2-3 week injury but nearly 50% of NFL QBs return after 1 week.
The Titans have a bye this week, so it's very possible Levis is back under center in Week 6. However, AC joint sprains carry a high re-injury risk (17%).
Injury Updates
WR Puka Nacua, LA Rams | PCL Sprain
Sunday Fox reporter Jay Glazier revealed that Puka Nacua is expected to miss another month with his PCL sprain.
When we learned about Nacua's injury in Week 1, I projected a Week 7 return. It appears he is on a similar timeline. Week 9 is roughly another month away and appears to be the target date for when the sophomore WR wants to be back on the field.
RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco | Achilles Injury/Tendinitis
The Christian McCaffrey saga has been an absolute rollercoaster. When McCaffrey was placed on IR, there was hope he could return shortly after, but this week news broke that McCaffrey was in Germany seeking medical advice and possibly receiving regenerative medicine treatments. Obviously panic ensued, with some questioning whether or not the 1.01 would return this year.
Sunday news was a little more positive as Ian Rapoport told NFL Network viewers that McCaffrey was targeting an early November return date.
The 49ers expect to have Christian McCaffrey back "at least by early November," per @RapSheet. pic.twitter.com/e3XtdZ4Cry
— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) September 29, 2024
So what does this mean for fantasy football?
Well I don't think Jordan Mason is going to go to the wayside. Currently, as it sits prior to the Monday night games, Mason is the RB4 in PPR leagues. There will likely be a workload split between the two RBs.
McCaffrey's injury carries a medium risk of re-injury but when examining long-term fantasy production in the same season, it is the single most determinantal injury. RBs typically deal with nagging effects. Maybe a split timeshare could keep McCaffrey fresh and help negate this decline, but he is unlikely to return top-5 RB production. Personally, I would have him slated in the RB15-20 range with a high ceiling each week due to his skills as a pass catcher.
Update: Per 49ers insider Grant Cohn, McCaffrey apparently has tendinitis in both ankles. This whole situation has been confusing, frustrating and generally a complete mess.
It's disappointing that San Francisco did not reveal any of this information to us this offseason. Whether the team knew or not may never come out.
I still think there is a glimmer of hope McCaffrey returns this season and delivers fantasy points but with each breaking news story that does not involve include him returning to practice my optimism dwindles. Proceed with caution.
