Sometimes, fantasy football is a war of attrition. Week 2 was one of those weeks. Not only was the volume of injuries high, but the significance was heightened, as we had high-profile players suffer potentially long-term injuries.
I discuss this in more depth below.
Key: Position Player, Team | Injury | Projected Return to Play
QB Tua Tagovailoa, Miami | Concussion | Projecting Week 5 Return
By now, we all know Tua Tagovailoa's extensive concussion history. It's been well documented and highlighted by scary moments. In Thursday night's matchup vs. Buffalo, Tagovailoa unfortunately suffered another concussion and was removed from the game.
Concussions are highly variable and person-to-person specific, but since 2017, on average, quarterbacks have missed 1.4 games. In 2022, Tagovailoa missed 2 weeks with a concussion before suffering another one in the same season, sidelining him for another 3 weeks. Given Tua's history, I would expect him to miss at least 1 week, but likely something between 2 and 4 weeks in total.
Update: The Dolphins signed Tyler Huntley this week from the Ravens' practice squad. This suggests Tagovailoa is not going to play this week.
RB Jeff Wilson Jr., Miami | Oblique Injury | Projecting Week 4 Return
After Raheem Mostert was officially ruled out heading into Thursday night, Jeff Wilson Jr. became a hot waiver wire target for some. However, Wilson's fantasy output was minimal and likely hampered due to an oblique injury.
Miami has indicated Wilson's injury is "not overly serious," and although the injury data would suggest that oblique injuries do not result in significant time missed, there is still a chance Wilson will miss time. With Mostert and now Wilson banged up, Jaylen Wright should be added in all leagues, especially those where you roster De'Von Achane.
RB Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City | Fractured Fibula | Projecting Week 11-12 Return
Late in Sunday's win over the Bengals, Isiah Pacheco went down with an ankle injury and did not return.
#Chiefs star RB Isiah Pacheco, who left the stadium in a walking boot and crutches, fractured his fibula based on initial tests, sources say.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 16, 2024
More information coming to determine severity and associated damage, but Pacheco is set to miss real time. pic.twitter.com/9xA4hOsMyE
Monday we learned that Pacheco was diagnosed with a fibula fracture. Depending on the severity and treatment option selected, best case for Pacheco would be a return in ~8 weeks (similar to Mark Andrews in 2023). However it's very possible Pacheco misses 12+ weeks. I expect Kansas City to place Pacheco on IR this week.
WR Cooper Kupp, LA Rams | Ankle Injury | Projecting Week 6-7 Return
After a tough Week 1 in which the Rams lost Puka Nacua to IR with a PCL sprain, in Week 2, things got worse as Cooper Kupp exited with an ankle injury. By video, Kupp's injury appeared to be the dreaded high ankle sprain. Kupp was seen exiting the stadium in a walking boot. That does not tell us much about the extent of the injury, but it does confirm that he is dealing with an ankle/foot issue.
Assuming that Kupp does have a high ankle sprain, the average time missed is lengthy - 5 weeks. The overwhelming majority of NFL WRs miss at least 5 weeks with high ankle sprains, although there is a portion who miss 1-2 weeks.
Kupp could miss a decent amount of time, but compared to RBs, WR fantasy production is not significantly impacted upon return. Therefore, if your fantasy team can weather the storm a bit without Cooper Kupp, you should be in good shape.
Update: Adam Schefter reported that Kupp is expected to miss an extended period of time and the Rams have not ruled out placing Kupp on IR. This information pretty much confirms Kupp has suffered a high ankle sprain.
It's a tough blow but I encourge Kupp managers to hold on. I am projecting Kupp to miss 3-4 weeks and if he could avoid IR that would be a huge vote of confidence for him to return sooner rather than later. Additionally there is data to support that upon return Kupp could return to pre-injury levels of fantasy production.
RB Joe Mixon, Houston | Ankle Injury | Projecting Week 5 Return
During Sunday night's game against the Chicago Bears Joe Mixon injured his right ankle in the 3rd quarter. Mixon briefly exited but was able to return with his ankle heavily taped after missing a few Texan drives.
By video Mixon's ankle injury did fit that of a high ankle sprain. Typically, high ankle sprains in RBs result in a few weeks missed (3), with only 15% of players missing 0 games.
Mixon did return later in the game but did not have his normal workload, ceding the majority of snaps to Cam Akers and Dare Ogunbowale. I mentioned above how only a small subset of RBs have been able to play through high ankle sprains without missing time, and Mixon is one of those RBs. I think it is possible he will play next week but for right now I will be conservatively projecting him to miss 2 weeks.
Update: Per Texans beat reporter Aaron Wilson, Joe Mixon's ankle injury is "not considered to be a long-term or serious." This is good news and leaves a possibilty that Mixon returns in Week 3. If Mixon is able to get a limited practice session in at all this week, I would feel good about his chances to play. Regardless it sounds like if Mixon misses time, it will be minimal.
WR Justin Jefferson, Minnesota | Quadriceps Injury | Projecting Week 4 Return
After a typical monster Justin Jefferson performance in Week 2, the all-pro WR exited with a quadriceps contusion and did not return.
Jefferson downplayed the injury post-game, saying he "would be ready to go next Sunday."
While I respect Jefferson's commitment to his profession, there should be some doubt about his availability. Quadriceps contusions are not serious and do not typically result in much time missed, but the overwhelming average of players misses at least one game. This is because quadriceps contusions can be painful.
While it is not popular to project Jefferson to miss next week even after his comments, we have enough evidence (this year especially) that players and coaches have not been 100% correct in predicting return-to-play timelines. I would say Jefferson is truly 50/50 for Week 3, but a lot of the injury data points to him missing one game.
Update: Justin Jefferson is adamant that he is not missing any games. I think there is still a chance he misses next week based on his injury.
RB Tyjae Spears, Tennessee | Ankle Injury | Projecting Week 4 Return
Tyjae Spears was unable to finish Sunday's game due to an ankle injury. Prior to the injury, Spears was being out-snapped and outplayed by his teammate Tony Pollard, managing only 31 total yards.
It's possible that Spears will miss a few weeks with this injury, giving Tony Pollard more opportunity to fully run away with the Titans' RB1 job.
Update: Per Ian Rapoport Spears' ankle injury is not considered serious.
RB Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville | Possible Shoulder Contusion | Timeline TBD
Tank Bigsby was injured early in the first quarter during a kick-off return. Bigsby never re-entered the game.
The second-year RB from Auburn is dealing with a shoulder injury, but the extent of the injury is unclear at this time. Based on the video I would speculate a possible contusion which would be relatively minor.
TE Evan Engram, Jacksonville | Hamstring | Projecting Week 5 Return
In one of the stranger injuries this week, Evan Engram sustained a hamstring strain in pregame warmups and did not play. Engram likely had a full-blown strain/muscle pull and not just "tightness" since he ended up sitting out the game entirely. Plan for the Jacksonville TE to miss some time.
WR A.J. Brown, Philadelphia | Hamstring | Projecting Week 5 Return
A.J. Brown was a late addition to the injury report in Week 2 with a hamstring strain that appeared to happen in practice. After being limited on Friday, Brown did not practice Saturday and was finally ruled out for the Monday night game.
Despite the late injury heading into Week 2, I still think Brown could play in Week 3. Brown typically plays through injury and misses less time than expected. Assuming that Brown can log a few limited practice sessions, I like his chances to suit up next week.
Update: Espn's Adam Schefter revealed on Monday night that Brown expectes to miss multiple weeks with his hamstring injury. Sounds like Brown has a serious hamstring strain. I've updated his projected return time.
WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit | Knee Injury | Timeline TBD
Amon-Ra St. Brown was hobbled by a lower-body injury, but the diagnosis and severity of his injury have not been revealed. Lions' head coach Dan Campbell downplayed the extent of the injury, but St. Brown will still need further testing to confirm.
Monday morning Detroit reported that St. Brown was dealing with cramping/leg contusion. A diagnosis I am not sure is 100% truthful.
Amon Ra St Brown L leg video end of game.
— Jimmy Liao MD | Detroit Lions Morning Rounds (@JimmyLiaoMD) September 15, 2024
Hopefully just mild aggravation of earlier possible groin strain or thigh charley horse.
Slight chance of mild MCL. pic.twitter.com/3xwwTuK8xu
Again, I am speculating, but it is possible that St. Brown is dealing with an MCL sprain to a similar degree to Bears' rooke Rome Odunze. Prior to this season, there were few examples of WRs playing through MCL sprains, but this could give fantasy managers hope that St. Brown misses little to no time.
St. Brown has a well-documented history of playing through injury so if his injury does turn out to be minor, he would play next week.
TE Taysom Hill, New Orleans | Chest Injury | Timeline TBD
Taysom Hill had to be taken to the hospital Sunday due to a chest injury. Saints head coach Dennis Allen hinted that Hill being hospitalized was merely "precautionary", but typically when this happens there is concern about an injury to the lungs or other internal organs.
Assuming that Hill has a rib fracture, he would be out for 1-2 weeks. If we get word that Hill is not dealing with a fracture, he could return as soon as next week. Until we have more clarity on Hill's situation, his return timeline is up in the air.
WR Deebo Samuel, San Francisco | Calf | Projecting Week 6 Return
Deebo Samuel was a late addition to my injury report tracker. 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan told reporters Monday that Samuel would "miss some time" with a calf injury.
Calf strains result in minimal time missed (on average 1.6 weeks) but carry a high risk of re-injury (2nd highest re-injury rate for NFL WRs). Additionally we all witnessed how cautious the 49ers were with managing Christian McCaffrey's calf strain and I think a many NFL teams are going to exercise extreme caution with these types of injuries in the fallout of the Aaron Rodgers Achilles rupture in 2023.
Deebo has never been the best at playing through injury. In fact, amongst WRs Deebo ranks in the 50th percentile in terms of time missed vs. expected. Based on this information, 3 weeks missed is a fair projection.
