In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll also fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
Remember: If any of this makes you feel queasy, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In And Out Accountability
Since the whole idea here is taking chances, the outcomes often reflect that. I fared reasonably well in Week 4 and Week 5. How'd I make it through Week 6? Let's see.
- I was in on Daniel Jones coming off multiple QB1 outings in a matchup with one of the NFL's most generous defenses. Even with Malik Nabers ruled out, it appeared to be an ideal setting . . . Except it was a prime-time game. It turns out that Jones was 1-13 in prime time heading into Sunday night. Now he's 1-14. I'm guessing it's no coincidence Jones fell short of my prediction that he would meet or exceed his QB8 and 18.59 projections. A miss.
- I was out on Josh Allen -- with good reason. Allen and the Bills offense had two down weeks. They were facing an incredibly tough matchup against a Jets defense that seemed likely to be fired up after a coaching change. I forgot one thing:
Stop betting against superhumans. You'll miss like I did here.Josh Allen is a superhuman.
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) October 15, 2024 - I was in on Tony Pollard, who was going up against a Colts defense that had allowed the most yards per game heading into this one. Pollard fared well, rushing for 93 yards with a touchdown. But I predicted a top-10 finish with better than 20 fantasy points. He delivered neither, finishing as RB15 with 17.8 points. Another miss.
- I was out on Javonte Williams, who was projected to finish as RB17 with 13.08 points. I expected much less, predicting the Denver back would finish outside RB2 territory. Williams complied, finishing as RB38 with 6.6 points. Hello. A hit!
- I was in on DJ Moore in a fantastic matchup against a porous Jaguars pass defense. That was half right. Jacksonville was plenty generous as Caleb Williams threw for 226 yards with four touchdowns. Moore had 20 of those yards and zero of the touchdowns. It's fair to say he fell short of my WR1, 20 points or better prediction. A ginormous miss.
- I was out on Mike Evans. He was projected to finish as WR20 with 13.73 fantasy points. I cited a long history of failure against the Saints defense as reason to have him outside the top 24. He finished as WR71 with 5.4 points. I'll gladly take it as a hit.
- I was in on Zach Ertz, who was projected to finish as TE15 with 7.78 points. I bet on Jayden Daniels and a dearth of high-end production from wideouts not named Terry McLaurin to propel Ertz to a top-12 finish at his position. Ertz finished as TE11 with 10.8 points. This is a hit.
- I was out on Kyle Pitts, who was projected to finish as TE10 with 8.7 points against the Panthers. Pitts had a great Week 5 showing, but I expected him to fall back to earth in this one and predicted a finish outside the top 12. He caught three passes for 70 yards, but the resulting 10-point output left him at TE13. Another hit.
As for my Outlier of the Week, I predicted Texans wideout Xavier Hutchinson, filling in for the injured Nico Collins, would finish inside the top 48 at his position. I'd like to say he fell short of my expectations, but that would not be a true reflection of the outcome. No, his WR111 finish wasn't even in the same universe. I blame Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell for dominating the available targets and for Joe Mixon and the rushing attack for dominating the Patriots defense . . .
Here's where we stand:
Week 6: 4 hits; 5 misses.
Season: 27 hits; 27 misses.
I'm not going to lie. Sitting at .500 after a super-volatile September doesn't seem all that bad.
Now, on to Week 7.
But first, I'll reiterate: If any of my choices make you uncomfortable, it's because they're supposed to. If that's not for you, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In: Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis vs. Miami
All right, friends. I'm not asking you to jump off the cliff with me. But I want you to hold my hand as I prepare to take this leap for all of us invested in the second-year signal caller.
In all seriousness, I have touted Richardson all year for all the obvious reasons. Physically, Richardson is one of the most impressive athletes in the league. As a rookie in 2023, Richardson showed what that might mean for fantasy managers. Richardson averaged over 25 fantasy points per contest in his first four NFL games. But it's been a mixed bag so far this season. He finished as QB5, QB25, and QB31 over the first three weeks. Richardson hasn't played since exiting the team's Week 4 tilt against the Steelers due to injury. He's set to return this week, and as NFL Network's Cameron Wolfe said, "The Colts desperately need to see Richardson, see him develop."
More to the point, Wolfe added that Richardson had one of his best quarters of the season against the Steelers before he got hurt.
So this is simple. Statistically, Richardson has struggled. Through four games, he has completed 50.6 percent of his passes for 654 yards, three touchdowns, and six interceptions. But the athletic ability is there -- even if his rushing totals this year don't reflect that either. I'll also acknowledge the Dolphins aren't the best matchup. That said, FantasyPros' Derek Brown pointed out that Miami has struggled to defend a core foundation of Richardson's game. Their biggest weakness has been defending the deep ball, and 18.2 percent of Richardson's passes (the highest mark in the NFL) have been throws of 20 or more yards. Richardson leads the NFL in intended air yards per attempt at 12.7, and he has thrown a go route on 14.3 percent of his attempts this season. As Brown said, "This is a quiet get-right spot for Richardson."
NFL Network's Michael F. Florio summed it up nicely: "If he plays, I'd need to have another very good QB option to consider sitting Richardson because the second-year QB has such a high upside."
Bottom Line: Again, I'm pot-committed here. You don't have to be. Richardson opened the week as QB13 on the Footballguys Week 7 Projections with 17.85 points. I'd like to believe he'll hit stride and flash the upside Florio described and that I invested in. But I'm taking baby steps here. I predict that Richardson will finish as a viable fantasy QB1 this week, meaning a QB12 or better finish.
Out: Brock Purdy, San Francisco vs. Kansas City
The Chiefs are headed to the Bay Area this weekend to play the 49ers in a rematch of Super Bowl LVIII. In six games this season, Purdy has completed 65.4 percent of his passes for 1,629 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions. In Super Bowl LVIII, Purdy finished 23-of-38 for 255 yards with one touchdown and no picks. More recently, he's coming off his second-best fantasy game of the season, but that came in a favorable matchup against Seattle.
This week will be more challenging. The Chiefs limited Purdy and the 49ers' offense to 19 points in regulation in their Super Bowl win. And even though Purdy fares better against the zone coverages Kansas City leans into than he does against man-to-man coverage, Florio notes the Chiefs have allowed just 13.5 points per game to QBs in their last four games, seventh-lowest over that span. Yes, Lamar Jackson lit them up in Week 1, but no QB has reached 18 fantasy points against them. They held Kirk Cousins, Justin Herbert, and Kirk Cousins to 13 fantasy points or less in three straight weeks.
While Purdy is QB8 on the season, averaging 17.6 points per game, he's been held to 16 points or fewer in four of six games.
Bottom Line: Our projections have Purdy finishing as QB11 with 18.23 points. I say he finishes just outside QB1 territory.
In: Alexander Mattison, Las Vegas at LA Rams
Don't look now, but Mattison, who was expected to be the backup running back to Zamir White, has shined in his opportunities and been a bright spot for an otherwise struggling offense. I know. It's a low bar. The Raiders sit second to last in rushing yards this season with 477 total yards on the ground, only 14 more yards than the league's worst, the Dallas Cowboys. But as SI.com's Jack Beulke notes, Mattison has accounted for a team-high 158 of those yards and has six more yards than White, who has three more carries than him. Mattison has also been a notable asset in the passing attack, as he is fifth on the team with receptions (14), totaling 135 receiving yards.
The Raiders have 12 total touchdowns this season, and a third of those have come from Mattison. After scoring a touchdown in the first three games of the season, Mattison got back in the scoring column this past Sunday against the Steelers. He has scored three times on the ground and once through the air.
With injuries, attrition (Davante Adams was traded to the Jets this week), and White's ongoing struggles, it's reasonable to believe Mattison will continue to get ample opportunity. If so, NFL Network's Marcas Grant points out that Los Angeles allows more than 26 fantasy points per game to running backs -- sixth-most in the NFL.
Bottom Line: Mattison's Week 7 projection calls for an RB23 finish with 11.56 points. I say this matchup gives him a little more headroom, and the former Viking finishes inside the top 20 this week.
Out: Josh Jacobs, Green Bay vs. Houston
As SI.com's Jeremy Brener notes, Jacobs has 108 carries for 464 yards and a touchdown so far in his first year with the Packers. Only Philadelphia's Saquon Barkley, Carolina's Chuba Hubbard, San Francisco's Jordan Mason, and Baltimore's Derrick Henry have enjoyed more success in running the football this season.
But as Brown suggested, "Jacobs has been underwhelming this season."
It's true. Jacobs is RB21 overall with an average of 12.2 points per game despite ranking 18th in opportunity share and tenth in red zone touches. This week, he goes up against a Texans defense that has some encouraging underlying metrics -- they've allowed the 11th-highest explosive run rate and the fourth-highest yards after contact per attempt, but that's still only allowing 3.8 yards per carry and the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs on the season.
Bottom Line: Jacobs is projected for an RB12 finish and 15.23 fantasy points. I say he falls short of that and finishes outside the RB12 range.
In: Demario Douglas, New England at Jacksonville (London)
Douglas was New England's top wideout last season, with 49 receptions for 561 yards. But Grant reminded readers this week that he was easy to overlook after failing to score a touchdown in one of the NFL's least productive offenses. This year, Douglas leads the Patriots in receptions and receiving yards . . . And he's already pulled in one of the TD catches that eluded him in 2023.
In addition, as Footballguy Sigmund Bloom wrote in his Week 7 Offensive Sleepers, Douglas looked like the clear-cut No. 1 receiver in Drake Maye's first start. Douglas saw a team-high 29 percent target share in the loss to Houston while enjoying a season-high average depth of target of 9.7 yards en route to a WR8 finish for the week. Bloom added that head coach Jerod Mayo said they will look at putting him in two wide receiver sets going forward, which could lead to more opportunities.
The only thing better than opportunities are opportunities in great matchups. Eight different wide receivers have scored 15-plus fantasy points against Jacksonville in six games. As NBC Sports' Matthew Berry noted, on three games this year with a target share of 20 percent or more this season, Douglas is averaging 16 points per game.
Bottom Line: Douglas is projected to finish this week as WR34 with 11.32 points. I predict a WR2 finish, meaning WR24 or better.
Out: George Pickens, Pittsburgh vs. NY Jets
Pickens let the cat out of the bag on Friday. Even with multiple reports suggesting Russell Wilson will get the start over Justin Fields this week, head coach Mike Tomlin refused to confirm the news on Friday. But Pickens told reporters a short time later he's been putting in extra work with Wilson after practice -- more than usual -- "because this is his first start."
Pickens topped the team in snaps in the win over the Raiders after playing just 34 snaps against the Cowboys. However, he has only caught six of his 15 targets, which is a concerning trend since he's such a critical part of a Steelers' offense lacking other viable options at the position.
But even if you believe Wilson improves Pickens' chances of getting on track, this week's matchup against Sauce Gardner and the Jets puts the kibosh on any optimism.
According to ESPN's Mike Clay, New York has allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position. The Jets have allowed the fewest receptions, second-fewest yards, and three TDs to receivers. ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft notes that New York has seen only one wide receiver, Justin Jefferson (15.2 fantasy points in Week 5), exceed 15 points.
Bottom Line: If it seems like I'm taking advantage of a low-hanging matchup fruit here, it's because I am. Pickens is projected for a WR20 finish with 13.6 points. I say he falls outside WR2 territory, finishing well outside the WR24 spot.
In: Dalton Schultz, Houston at Green Bay
As Berry pointed out, in Houston's first Nico Collins-less game last week, Schultz saw a season-high target share of 21.9 percent, which matched Stefon Diggs' workload in New England.
This trend started with Collins' departure at halftime in Week 5. Schultz had at least three targets in each of his first six starts this season, but that total jumped to 14 targets with eight catches over the last two weeks. The only thing missing has been a touchdown.
Perhaps he gets into the end zone at Lambeau Field.
Green Bay has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards and fantasy points per game to tight ends, including an eight-catch, 96-yard effort from Trey McBride in Week 6. Rams TE Colby Parkinson had seven catches the week before that, and, as Bloom pointed out, the Packers gave up scores to tight ends in each of the two weeks before that.
Bottom Line: Schultz is projected to finish as TE11 with 8.66 points this week. I say he finishes inside the top 10, and if he scores a touchdown, a top-5 finish is well within the range of outcomes.
Out: David Njoku, Cleveland vs. Cincinnati
As Gary Davenport suggested in our Polarizing Players collaboration this week, the Browns offense has become "a vortex of despair." Even with the anticipated return of Nick Chubb, who is expected to make his 2024 debut on Sunday, I don't have much faith in an offense led by Deshaun Watson, who still hasn't thrown for 200 yards in a game this season.
But he's come close. And now, with Amari Cooper and his 26.5 percent target share out of the picture (following his trade to Buffalo), I understand the optimism about Njoku's chances of gaining some ground.
As Florio noted, Njoku took a step forward last week in his second game back from an ankle injury. He led the Browns with seven targets and five catches. He finished with 31 yards and 8.1 fantasy points. That was good for a TE18 finish. The matchup against the Bengals isn't daunting, but I'm not eager to invest in this offense until I have reason to believe a unit that's failed to score once in its last 29 drives has turned a corner.
Bottom Line: Yes, volume matters, and playing Njoku based on his anticipated workload is fine. But he's projected to finish as TE6 with 10.39 points. At a position where we need all the help we can get, I almost hope I'm wrong on this one, but I have Njoku outside the top 10 this week.
Outlier of the Week
Dallas Goedert has been ruled out due to the hamstring injury he suffered last week. Grant Calcaterra replaced him and finished as TE12 after catching all four of his targets for 67 yards. On Sunday, he'll face a Giants defense that's allowed at least four catches to a tight end in three of their six games. Calcaterra is projected to finish as TE18 this week with 7.75 points. I say he tops both numbers.
Catch Harris every weekday morning on the Footballguys Daily Update Podcast, your 10-minute daily dose of NFL news and fantasy analysis. Find the latest edition here or subscribe on your podcast platform of choice. You can also listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show and Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.