In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll also fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
Remember: If any of this makes you feel queasy, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In And Out Accountability
Since the weekly goal here is predicting players who will outperform or underperform their projections and rankings, I'll take chances. In Week 3's In and Out, I took chances I shouldn't have. Fortunately, Week 4 was better. Let's see how much better.
- I was in on Baker Mayfield, who was projected just outside the QB1 range. I predicted a QB1 finish, and he was QB2 overall with a 28.9-point output. Easy hit.
- I was out on Anthony Richardson. Let me rephrase: I was reluctantly out on the second-year signal caller. I desperately wanted a better outcome, and after the second-year starter got off to a solid start against the Steelers, completing 3 of 4 passes for 71 yards with 26 rushing yards, I was ready to happily accept a miss. Instead, Richardson was hurt late in the first quarter and finished with an encouraging 5.2 fantasy points. I'm pleased with what I saw, bummed he got hurt, and I'm more than willing to take the hit here.
- I was in on Zack Moss. I predicted a top-12 finish. He was RB14 on the day with a respectable 17.8 points. If only I could have combined Chase Brown's surprising 23.2-point RB5 finish with Moss's output, I could have easily avoided this narrow miss.
- I was out on De'Von Achane at his Footballguys RB10, 16.06-point projection, but I predicted an RB2 finish. I'm no math major, but an RB45 finish is outside my expected range. This was a miss.
- I was in on Rome Odunze, suggesting a WR31 finish was the floor. I expected WR2-level production while suggesting WR1 output was well within his range of outcomes. Odunze was WR80 -- a massive miss.
- I was out on Garrett Wilson at his WR11, 15.5-point projection, citing his matchup with Broncos shutdown corner Patrick Surtain II. I predicted a WR3 finish, suggesting even that felt generous. It was. Wilson finished as WR33 with 9.1 points. A hit.
- I was in on Travis Kelce, feeling the veteran TE would rebound against a Chargers defense he tends to play well against. I was confident enough to predict that Kelce would finish better than his TE4, 10.49-point projection. Despite leaving minimal wiggle room, Kelce delivered, finishing as TE3 with 15.9 points -- a hit.
- I was out on Hunter Henry, who was projected to finish as TE7 with 9.13 points. My prediction had him falling well outside TE1 territory against the Niners. He obliged with a TE33 finish on 3.2 points. Another hit.
If only my outlier, Cardinals TE Elijah Higgins, played a second game. Even at that, he would have had to do better than the 3.2 points he posted against the Commanders in that imaginary second outing to meet or exceed his projected 6.79 points. I blame Kyler Murray, who seemed just a tad off in this one . . .
It's always nice rebounding after a tough week. And make no mistake, my 5-4 finish in Week 4 was way more satisfying than my 2-7 finish in Week 3.
Here's where we stand:
Week 4: 5 hits; 4 misses.
Season: 17 hits; 19 misses.
Now, on to Week 5. One more time: If any of this makes you feel queasy, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In: Geno Smith, Seattle vs. NY Giants
We probably should have seen this coming, right? As I outlined in a Fantasy Notebook this offseason, during his tenure at the University of Washington, new Seahawks play-caller Ryan Grubb ran a pass-heavy offense that ranked sixth in the FBS in total yards per game (487.0) and sixth in scoring (36.7). With Michael Penix Jr.. at quarterback, the Huskies led the FBS in passing yards per game (355.8) the past two seasons and ranked 15th in dropback percentage, calling passing plays 61.8 percent of the time.
Fast forward to this season, and Smith heads into Sunday's game against the Giants with the most passing yards (1,182) in the NFL. He's also thrown more passes than any other quarterback in the league. You all know how I feel about volume when it comes to running backs and receivers. Well, that translates to quarterback, at least when said quarterback is a moderately successful passer. Smith is that, although he's only thrown four touchdown passes this year.
That will change -- possibly this week. At the very least, as FantasyPros' Derek Brown suggests, Smith, who's topped 300 passing yards in each of the last two games, should have no issues posting another QB1 week against the Giants, who rank bottom 10 in TD rate and passer rating against -- especially in a game in which Seattle has one of the highest-implied team totals on the slate.
Bottom Line: According to the Footballguys Week 5 Projections, Smith will finish as QB6 with 18.69 points. I don't think I'm taking a huge chance to say he finishes better in both categories.
Out: Dak Prescott, Dallas at Pittsburgh
I know what you're thinking. The vaunted Steelers defense struggled to contain Colts backup Joe Flacco after the veteran took over for Anthony Richardson last Sunday. But Flacco's 15-fantasy point output was the highest by any quarterback against Pittsburgh's defense this season. Otherwise, Kirk Cousins scored 6.2; Bo Nix finished with 8.3; and Justin Herbert and Taylor Heinicke combined for 10 fantasy points.
As The Sporting News' Michael O'Hara noted, they have yet to allow a 250-yard passer and have surrendered just four passing touchdowns on the year. The Steelers also rank top eight in pressure rate, while teams facing Pittsburgh are averaging the sixth-fewest pass attempts per game.
Meanwhile, as SI.com's Michael Fabiano notes, Prescott has not been all that great in the stat sheets, scoring fewer than 17 points in three of his first four games. NBC Sports' Matthew Berry added to that, noting that since the start of last season, Dak has averaged just 15.7 PPG on the road.
Bottom Line: Prescott's Week 5 Footballguys Projections are QB10 with 17.81 points. I say Prescott will not be the first quarterback this season to post starter numbers against Pittsburgh. Instead, he finishes well outside the top 12 this week.
In: Jerome Ford, Cleveland at Washington
Nick Chubb has been designated to return from injured reserve but won't play this week. And that means at least one more glorious outing for Ford. Don't scoff! One more time, volume is the key to fantasy success, and Ford has been on the field for 75 percent of the offensive snaps, garnering 81 percent of the backfield touches and a double-digit target share in three of four games.
As NFL Network's Michael F. Florio pointed out, Ford is tied with Alvin Kamara for third-most targets at the RB position. As a result, Ford has posted double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this season. He's averaging 13.0 per game and topped 15 points twice.
That's a super-solid floor, but Ford has a chance to explore his ceiling this week going up against a Commanders defense that's allowed four different backs to beat them for 14-plus points this season. As Fabiano noted, that includes James Conner, who beat Washington for 104 rushing yards, a touchdown, and 18.3 points last week. Better still, Florio notes the Commanders have allowed an explosive run (10-plus yards) on a league-high 22 percent of opponents' carries.
Bottom Line: Ford's Week 5 Footballguys Projection is RB13 with 13.95 points. I say Ford finishes as an RB1 this week.
Out: James Conner, Arizona at San Francisco
After having his way with the Commanders last weekend, things get tougher for Conner this week. The 49ers have yet to allow a back to average more than 4.0 yards per carry against them this year and they rank sixth in the NFL in run defense DVOA.
One thing: As Mick Ciallela from Fantrax notes, San Francisco has been vulnerable to receiving backs out of the backfield. They have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to opposing running backs this season. Unfortunately, Conner, a capable receiving asset, hasn't been used that way this year. In fact, Conner has three straight games with a target share below 5 percent (with one target per outing over that span), and Berry notes that for the season, he's played only 26 percent of Arizona's long down-and-distance snaps.
Reasons for optimism? The Cardinals are the biggest underdog on the Week 5 slate, which could mean more passing. And Conner did have three catches in Week 1. But Fabiano notes he's failed to score more than 11 points in four of his six career games against the 49ers, and San Francisco held a pair of decent receiving backs, Aaron Jones and Rhamondre Stevenson, to fewer than 10 points in two of the last three weeks.
Bottom Line: With four teams on bye and attrition mounting league-wide, Conner investors are unlikely to have better options. So he's obviously playable. This is more about expectations. Conner's Week 5 Footballguys Projection has him at RB17 with 12.82 points. I say he fails to hit double-digit points and falls outside the top 20.
In: Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco vs. Arizona
It's time. Time for Jauan Jennings' remarkable run as a top-10 fantasy wideout to end and time for Aiyuk to begin showing us why the Niners ponied up $30 million a year over the next four seasons to end a summer-long hold-in. And yes, Jennings has been remarkable. Heading into Week 5, his 22.3 percent target share is the highest on the team, but Aiyuk's 20.7 percent isn't far behind.
But what about his slow start? ESPN.com's Nick Wagoner notes that Aiyuk's results in the first four games -- 13 receptions (69th in NFL), 167 yards (tied for 51st), and zero touchdowns -- are largely in line with slow starts he's had in most of his other seasons, save for the 17 catches for 320 yards and two scores he had in the first four games of 2023.
By the end of last year, Aiyuk was one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL, finishing third in the league with 3.26 yards per route run and second in yards per reception (17.9).
After facing Broncos Patrick Surtain II and Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez, Aiyuk should finally emerge as the leader of this receiving corps in the most favorable matchup this season. As SBNation.com's Kyle Posey notes, Arizona averages the second most yards per pass allowed and has the fewest pressures in the league. It's a matchup that allowed Amon-Ra St. Brown to haul in seven catches for 75 yards and a touchdown in Week 3. Last Sunday, Washington's Olamide Zaccheaus had six receptions for 85 yards on six targets, while Terry McLaurin had seven for 52 yards and a score.
FantasyPros' Derek Brown notes Aiyuk will run about 84 percent of his routes against Sean Murphy-Bunting (90.9 percent catch rate and 104.2 passer rating) and Starling Thomas V (61.5 percent catch rate and 120.2 passer rating). Aiyuk has not topped 50 yards this season, but I'm with Posey, who believes the star wideout should be shooting for closer to triple digits against this Cardinals secondary.
Bottom Line: The good news? I don't need a true breakout here. Aiyuk's Week 5 Footballguys Projection is WR33 with 11.72 points. I expect a WR1 finish this week, but I'll consider a WR2 finish a hit here.
Out: Diontae Johnson, Carolina at Chicago
Let's get uncomfortable. In the two games since Andy Dalton took over for Bryce Young at quarterback, Johnson has enjoyed 27 targets, 313 air yards, and seven end-zone targets. As Florio understated, "That is elite volume." Have I mentioned how much I love volume for my fantasy assets? Because volume begets production, and Johnson is proof. He's produced 205 yards with two touchdowns with the Red Rifle under center. He's topped 21 fantasy points and finished as a top-10 fantasy receiver in both weeks.
So why am I dialing back on the man who's WR3 overall the last two weeks with an average of 23.8 points per game?
First, as ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft notes, Johnson has benefited from back-to-back favorable matchups and Chicago will be a more formidable challenge. The Bears have allowed the eighth-lowest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers. They've allowed only one wide receiver to exceed 12.5 fantasy points against them, and that was Nico Collins (27.5, Week 2), who is currently the league leader in receiving yards and the overall WR2 in fantasy. According to Brown, Johnson will run about 85 percent of his routes against Jaylon Johnson (53.8 percent catch rate and 40.1 passer rating) and Tyrique Stevenson (58.6 percent catch rate and 79.0 passer rating).
Bottom Line: Yes, I'm still starting Johnson in season-long, but I'm less interested in him for DFS tournaments and one-and-dones. Johnson's Week 5 Footballguys Projection has him finishing as WR6 with 16.48 points. I'm predicting a cool down, a slightly quieter day, something more along the lines of a WR2 or lower outcome.
In: Evan Engram, Jacksonville vs. Indianapolis
This might be a case of the shiny new object catching my attention. We haven't seen Engram on the field since he suffered a hamstring injury during pre-game warmups in Week 2. And let me stress right off the get-go: Engram isn't a mortal lock to return. Instead, head coach Doug Pederson announced that Evans will be a game-time decision on Sunday versus the Colts. But Pederson also said earlier this week that things look promising for Engram's return.
With the preliminaries out of the way, let's get down to business. When I characterize Engram as the shiny new object, I should acknowledge that's mostly because it's not hard to shine in the desolate wasteland the tight-end position has been for fantasy managers this season. Meanwhile, it's worth remembering what Engram meant to this offense last season. In 2023, he led all tight ends in targets (103), receptions (85), and yards (670) on quick passes. He was quarterback Trevor Lawrence's safety valve.
So, assuming he plays on Sunday -- again, check and verify in the 90 minutes leading up to Sunday's early-afternoon kickoff, Cockroft notes it will be against an Indy defense that's given up two of the nine highest single-game fantasy point totals for the season: Cole Kmet's 25.7 and Pat Freiermuth's 16 in Weeks 3 and 4 respectively. That has largely been responsible for the defense's 2.0 points per target allowed to the position, third most in the league.
In addition, Engram averaged double-figure fantasy points against the Colts last season.
Bottom Line: Did I mention Engram is questionable? And we haven't seen him in action since Week 1? Okay, with all that out of the way, Engram goes into the weekend projected as TE33 with 3.46 points. I'm predicting a TE1 finish -- if he plays -- in his first game back.
UPDATE: With reports on Saturday afternoon indicating Engram is trending toward not playing, I'm going to plug his backup, Brenton Strange, in this spot in case Engram is out. Strange is projected to finish as TE28 with 3.65 points. I say he finished inside TE2 territory if Engram isn't available.
Out: Cole Kmet, Chicago vs. Carolina
Given the overall lack of productivity at the position, this is another one that feels a bit uncomfortable. Adding to that, Brown considers Kmet a borderline TE1 this week against a Panthers' pass defense that has allowed the 13th-most receiving yards and the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
But after that 25.7-point outing mentioned above, Kmet was held to just 6.4 points last Sunday and on the season, he has fewer than 35 yards and seven fantasy points in three of four games. I don't know if it's a coincidence, but that game against the Colts came with Keenan Allen on the sidelines. At the very least, as Fabiano pointed out, with Allen back, Kmet is battling to be anything higher than fourth in the target pecking order.
Also, despite their overall generosity at the position, Florio notes the Panthers held Brock Bowers and Mike Gesicki to fewer than eight fantasy points this season.
Bottom Line: Kmet's Week 5 Footballguys Projection is TE10 with 8.02 points. I believe Kmet will fall outside TE1 territory.
Outlier of the Week
Malik Nabers is out with a concussion this week, so the Giants head into Seattle with 34 percent of their passing targets unaccounted for. Wan'Dale Robinson, already drawing 25 percent, will likely get some. And there are other receivers on the roster, but rookie tight end Theo Johnson could also be part of that effort. As Footballguy Sigmund Bloom noted this week, Johnson's speed was on display last week running down a defensive back on a return. Daniel Jones' inability to throw deep accurately will work against Darius Slayton and Jalin Hyatt. Johnson is projected as TE25 with 4.12 points. I'm not going to go too far out on a limb here. Let's say Johnson finishes in TE2 territory.
You can listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show and Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.