In and Out: Week 4 Edition

Photo: USA Today Sports

In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.

But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players who might be uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll also fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
 
We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).

In And Out Accountability

Since the weekly goal here is predicting players who will outperform or underperform their projections and rankings, I'll take chances. In Week 2, the damage was minimal. The Week 3 outcomes were not as good (he kindly suggested). Let's sift through the ashes.

• I was in on Derek Carr. More so, I was in on a Saints offense rolling through the first two weeks scoring 40 points per game going up against an Eagles defense that struggled their first two weeks. New Orleans scored 12 points, and Carr didn't just fall short of my QB5 overall prediction; he wasn't even a QB2 (Carr finished as QB29) -- calling this a miss is like Noah saying, "It looks a little like rain." 
• I was out on Jalen Hurts. My prediction was he'd fall short of his QB4, 20.14-point projection. I suggested a QB1 finish as QB8 or lower. It was way lower -- he finished as QB20, but I'm taking this as a hit. 
• I was in on Zamir White, going with the "if not this week, when?" theory of picking players. Memo to self: Sometimes, "never" is the correct answer. I predicted a high-end RB2/low-end RB1 outcome. White was RB54 with 3.4 points. He still hasn't scored 7 points in a game this season. This would be a miss. 
• I was out on Kyren Williams, thinking offensive line issues and a negative game script would be limiting factors. In my defense, I wasn't all the way out. I just felt an RB2 finish seemed more likely than the RB1 finish we projected. But Sean McVay went all in on the run (despite falling behind 14-0), went with his heaviest usage of two-TE sets since 2022, and Williams scored three touchdowns for the second time in his career. He finished as RB2 overall -- a miss.
• I was in on Brandon Aiyuk, predicting him to finish with 20-plus points and a WR1 finish for all the right reasons. I know they were all the right reasons because his teammate, Jauan Jennings, proved it by scoring 21.2 points for a WR4 finish. Aiyuk, meanwhile, wasn't even aight. He was WR54 with 7.6 points -- a miss.
• I was out on Brian Thomas Jr. against the Bills, mainly because his QB, Trevor Lawrence, told me his offense "sucks." Turns out Lawrence might have been referring primarily to himself. Whatever the case, I predicted Thomas would fall well outside the WR3 window in Buffalo, and he finished as WR46 -- a much-needed hit.
• I was in on Kyle Pitts, believing he would leverage the matchup against a Chiefs defense that gave up massive games to lesser tight ends the first two weeks. Instead, all the lesser tight ends in the league (it seems) outproduced Pitts, who fell short of my prediction of double-digit fantasy scoring. He posted 7.9 points -- a miss.
• I was out on Dalton Kincaid. I suspect I was not alone in this. It's worth remembering that Josh Allen, when he's on point, can make all the players around him look like we expected, including Kincaid, who finally finished inside the top 12 -- he was TE5 with 13.1 points -- just like we all expected when we drafted. And that was a miss for me.

My favorite outlier, Rams WR Jordan Whittington,  was pegged for a WR3 finish. Instead, it was Tutu Atwell who rose to the occasion. I have nobody to blame but myself . . . 

Here's where we stand: 

Week 3: 2 hits; 7 misses.
Season:  12 hits; 15 misses.

Now, on to Week 4. And remember: If any of this makes you feel queasy, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections. 

In: Baker Mayfield Tampa Bay vs. Philadelphia

Last Sunday wasn't Mayfield's day, but it was just one day. Remember, Mayfield was fantasy's QB1 through the first two games, averaging just over 24 points per game, partly based on the steam of his 29-point outing in the opener. Still, his QB28 showing against Denver last Sunday was a clear outlier. 
 
One issue: Mayfield has been sacked 12 times in the past two games alone, including seven times by the Broncos. The Bucs rank 29th in the NFL in sacks allowed, with 4.3 per game. Fortunately for Mayfield, right tackle Luke Goedeke could return Sunday after missing the past two games with a concussion. Bucs rookie center Graham Barton acknowledged better pass protection has been a focus in meetings this week. "Sacks are never what you want," he said. "(Twelve) in two games is obviously too many. We've got to be better. We're not running from that." They might not have to this weekend. Philadelphia only has four sacks this season.
 
If the Bucs can protect Mayfield, it's worth noting Philadelphia has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Still, the main area of struggle has been in the slot, where the Eagles have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to wideouts. Chris Godwin, who works primarily out of the slot, has been dominant this season. Mike Evans also occasionally runs out of the slot (34 percent of the time against Denver). Given the weapons at his disposal, Mayfield shouldn't be overlooked against an Eagles defense that is getting better (and showed definite improvement in New Orleans last week) but that's also given up 40 touchdown passes and the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks since the start of last season.
 
Bottom Line: His Footballguys Projection this week is QB14 with 16.72 points. I expect Mayfield, who threw for 337 and three touchdowns against Philly in the 2023 playoffs, to finish as a QB1.

Out: Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis vs. Pittsburgh

I'm not going to lie. This one hurts. I said it all summer: "If Richardson is the nail, I am the hammer." I invested like that. At this point, it's fair to argue I'm over-invested. And even if I'm still willing to start him, it doesn't mean I need to lead the rest of you off the cliff.

As SI.com's Michael Fabiano so eloquently put it, "Richardson has been brutal in his last two games, scoring a combined 15 fantasy points." He's thrown six interceptions and has yet to complete more than half of his passes in a game this year. More worrisome, he's not tucking it in and running the ball as expected. As Yahoo's Dalton Del Don noted, Shane Steichen gave Richardson the league's highest rate of designed runs in the red zone last season, but we've yet to see that. That caps his ceiling. After averaging 26 fantasy points per game in his first three full NFL games, Richardson has scored just 15 in his last two combined. 
 
This week, he goes up against a Steelers defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. As NFL Network's Michael F. Florio suggests, Richardson's ceiling is always high due to his rushing ability, but his floor this week would be a single-digit scoring day in fantasy.  
 
Bottom Line: Richardson is currently QB19 with an average of 13.7 points per game despite his huge (26.1-point) Week 1. He's QB18 on the Footballguys Projections this week. We're expecting 16.3 points. I have him falling short of that against the Steelers before having a huge rebound and resurgence against the Jaguars in Week 6. Write it down!