In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players I see as uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll also fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
In And Out Accountability
Since the weekly goal here is predicting players who will outperform or underperform their projections and rankings, I'll take chances. That likely means sifting through some ashes on weeks I get burned. In Week 2, the damage was minimal.
- I was in on Justin Fields, whose rushing upside had me wishcasting a better-than-projected finish. That projected finish was QB10 on 18.1 points. He neither met nor exceeded that, finishing as QB23 with 11.4 points -- a total miss.
- I was out on C.J. Stroud, a pick that made me very nervous. It shouldn't have. I said it wasn't climbing out on a limb to believe the second-year man would fall short of our QB7 and 19.7-point projections against Chicago. It was every bit as challenging as I predicted. Stroud finished as QB14 with 14.3 points -- a hit.
- I was in on J.K. Dobbins against the Panthers, suggesting his RB23 and 12.3-point projections were too low. They were. Dobbins was RB5 on the week with 20.1 points -- a big hit.
- I was out on Rachaad White against a tough Detroit defense. While it helped that he got nicked up, White fell far short of his RB15, 13.9-point projections. He wound up further outside the RB2 range than I expected, but fall outside it he did, finishing as RB54 with 3.3 points -- a hit.
- I was in on Malik Nabers in a plus matchup against the Commanders. He was projected as our WR16 with 13.9 points. I predicted a WR1 finish. He was WR3 overall, with 28.7 points, thanks to 18 targets from Daniel Jones -- a big hit.
- I was out on George Pickens, who went to Denver as our WR17 with a projected 13.9 points. I ranked Pickens as a WR3 instead. He fell well outside that window as WR64 with 4.9. I'll take it as a hit.
- I was in on Trey McBride, but a little too in. He was projected as TE3 with 12.6 points. I predicted he would hit 15 points and finish as TE1. McBride scored 18.7 points -- so, yay! -- but he finished as TE4 thanks to huge weeks from George Kittle, Hunter Henry, and Brock Bowers. A half-miss is still a miss.
- I was out on Evan Engram, predicting he'd finish outside the top 10 at the position. A pre-game hamstring injury ensured that would happen. I'll take it.
Going 6-2 on a week I didn't feel great about made up for a day spent nervously watching games. Yes, I would have loved my favorite outlier, Rams WR Demarcus Robinson, to come through with a WR3 finish, too. His WR54 finish didn't cut it. I blame the Arizona Cardinals. And myself . . .
Here's where we stand:
Week 2: 6 hits; 3 misses.
Season: 10 hits; 8 misses.
Now, on to Week 3. One more time: If any of this makes you feel queasy, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In: Derek Carr, New Orleans vs. Philadelphia
As I mentioned in this week's Fantasy Notebook, it hit me after re-watching the Saints Week 1 win that we might be too quick to pin their enormous offensive output on a hapless Carolina defense. But upon further review, it seemed to me their opening day outburst had at least as much to do with offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak's use of motion and play-action (the Saints currently lead the NFL with a play-action rate of 46.5 percent) as it did the Panthers. The team's Week 2 win in Dallas offered confirmation. With 91 points through two games, the Saints have the most points through two weeks of any team in the NFL in the last 15 years. More importantly -- at least for our purposes, New Orleans scored on their first 15 drives of the season with Carr at quarterback. Through two weeks, Carr leads all quarterbacks in passer rating, yards per attempt, touchdown passes, and deep ball rate.
Sure, it's easy to ride the hot hand. It's also easy to get burned riding the hot hand. However, the matchup is as appealing as Carr's two-game run in this case. According to FantasyPros' Derek Brown, the Eagles' secondary has allowed the seventh-highest passing yards per game, yards per attempt, and the 10th-highest passer rating. This isn't new. SI.com's Michael Fabiano notes the Eagles have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (20.2 point-per-game) since the start of last season. Philadelphia's pass rush is also lacking. They have the seventh-lowest pressure rate in the league. That should play into Carr's big-play ability. NBC Sports' Matthew Berry pointed out the Eagles have allowed the second-highest passer rating this season on deep passes. This is when I remind you that Carr has totaled nine completions that traveled at least 50 yards of air distance since the start of last season, most in the NFL.
Bottom Line: Carr is QB12 with 18.25 points on our Week 3 projections. He's finished as QB6 and QB3 the last two games. He's QB5 on the season with an average of 21.6 points per game. I'm ranking him to hit that QB5 level against the Eagles this week.
Out: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia at New Orleans
Look. You're absolutely starting Hurts in regular redraft leagues. But anybody playing in DFS tournaments or other contests should think twice. As FantasyPros noted, the Saints held Dak Prescott to an overall QB15 finish in last week's beatdown in Dallas. They now turn their attention to Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles.
Yes, Hurts has back-to-back top-10 finishes to start the year. His 26 rushes tie him with Jayden Daniels for the most among quarterbacks. As Fansided.com's Joe Summer suggests, that rushing volume boosts Hurts' floor, but the hamstring-related absence of A.J. Brown could lower his ceiling. We saw Hurts' dependence on Brown in Week 1 when the two connected five times for 119 yards and a long touchdown against the Packers. In Week 2, with Brown watching from the sideline, Hurts threw for just 183 yards and an interception in the Eagles' loss to the Falcons.
But it goes beyond one game. Per Colin Cowherd, with Brown on the field, Hurts has averaged 233.8 passing yards per game. Without Brown, Hurts' passing yards drop to 148.4 yards per game. To be clear, those are career numbers go back to the early portion of Hurts' career.
New Orleans ranks second in rushing yards allowed this season. However, their past challenges with mobile quarterbacks like Hurts should be acknowledged.
Bottom Line: Let me reiterate: Start Hurts in regular redraft leagues. But wherever you're playing him, keep the expectations in check. He's QB4 with 20.14 points on the Footballguys Week 3 Projections. It'll take a significant rushing effort to hit that, and I think he will fall short. How far? How about a borderline QB1 finish as QB8 or lower, which isn't ideal considering he's the second-most expensive QB on DraftKings and third-most on FanDuel.