In and Out. No, not the burgers (fantastic though they are). This article is the fantasy football version. In an ideal world, you would roll through the Footballguys positional Rankings and Projections, skimming all your picks right off the top. By all means, those living in a perfect world should do that.
But if you're like the rest of us and play in the shadowy, nuanced world of one-and-done contests and daily fantasy, particularly DFS tournaments where contrarian plays are almost required, the top players might not be options. That being the case, this article won't be a chalkfest. Instead, we'll focus on players I see as uniquely positioned to outperform expectations. Conversely, we'll also fade some players that might make you uncomfortable. That's the whole idea.
We'll look at eight players: Four that merit definite spots in your lineups (the In) and four that don't hit quite right (the Out).
In And Out Accountability
Since the weekly goal here is predicting players who will outperform or underperform their projections and rankings, I'll take chances. That likely means sifting through some ashes on weeks I get burned. In Week 2, the damage was minimal.
- I was in on Justin Fields, whose rushing upside had me wishcasting a better-than-projected finish. That projected finish was QB10 on 18.1 points. He neither met nor exceeded that, finishing as QB23 with 11.4 points -- a total miss.
- I was out on C.J. Stroud, a pick that made me very nervous. It shouldn't have. I said it wasn't climbing out on a limb to believe the second-year man would fall short of our QB7 and 19.7-point projections against Chicago. It was every bit as challenging as I predicted. Stroud finished as QB14 with 14.3 points -- a hit.
- I was in on J.K. Dobbins against the Panthers, suggesting his RB23 and 12.3-point projections were too low. They were. Dobbins was RB5 on the week with 20.1 points -- a big hit.
- I was out on Rachaad White against a tough Detroit defense. While it helped that he got nicked up, White fell far short of his RB15, 13.9-point projections. He wound up further outside the RB2 range than I expected, but fall outside it he did, finishing as RB54 with 3.3 points -- a hit.
- I was in on Malik Nabers in a plus matchup against the Commanders. He was projected as our WR16 with 13.9 points. I predicted a WR1 finish. He was WR3 overall, with 28.7 points, thanks to 18 targets from Daniel Jones -- a big hit.
- I was out on George Pickens, who went to Denver as our WR17 with a projected 13.9 points. I ranked Pickens as a WR3 instead. He fell well outside that window as WR64 with 4.9. I'll take it as a hit.
- I was in on Trey McBride, but a little too in. He was projected as TE3 with 12.6 points. I predicted he would hit 15 points and finish as TE1. McBride scored 18.7 points -- so, yay! -- but he finished as TE4 thanks to huge weeks from George Kittle, Hunter Henry, and Brock Bowers. A half-miss is still a miss.
- I was out on Evan Engram, predicting he'd finish outside the top 10 at the position. A pre-game hamstring injury ensured that would happen. I'll take it.
Going 6-2 on a week I didn't feel great about made up for a day spent nervously watching games. Yes, I would have loved my favorite outlier, Rams WR Demarcus Robinson, to come through with a WR3 finish, too. His WR54 finish didn't cut it. I blame the Arizona Cardinals. And myself . . .
Here's where we stand:
Week 2: 6 hits; 3 misses.
Season: 10 hits; 8 misses.
Now, on to Week 3. One more time: If any of this makes you feel queasy, please default to the Footballguys Rankings/Projections.
In: Derek Carr, New Orleans vs. Philadelphia
As I mentioned in this week's Fantasy Notebook, it hit me after re-watching the Saints Week 1 win that we might be too quick to pin their enormous offensive output on a hapless Carolina defense. But upon further review, it seemed to me their opening day outburst had at least as much to do with offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak's use of motion and play-action (the Saints currently lead the NFL with a play-action rate of 46.5 percent) as it did the Panthers. The team's Week 2 win in Dallas offered confirmation. With 91 points through two games, the Saints have the most points through two weeks of any team in the NFL in the last 15 years. More importantly -- at least for our purposes, New Orleans scored on their first 15 drives of the season with Carr at quarterback. Through two weeks, Carr leads all quarterbacks in passer rating, yards per attempt, touchdown passes, and deep ball rate.
Sure, it's easy to ride the hot hand. It's also easy to get burned riding the hot hand. However, the matchup is as appealing as Carr's two-game run in this case. According to FantasyPros' Derek Brown, the Eagles' secondary has allowed the seventh-highest passing yards per game, yards per attempt, and the 10th-highest passer rating. This isn't new. SI.com's Michael Fabiano notes the Eagles have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (20.2 point-per-game) since the start of last season. Philadelphia's pass rush is also lacking. They have the seventh-lowest pressure rate in the league. That should play into Carr's big-play ability. NBC Sports' Matthew Berry pointed out the Eagles have allowed the second-highest passer rating this season on deep passes. This is when I remind you that Carr has totaled nine completions that traveled at least 50 yards of air distance since the start of last season, most in the NFL.
Bottom Line: Carr is QB12 with 18.25 points on our Week 3 projections. He's finished as QB6 and QB3 the last two games. He's QB5 on the season with an average of 21.6 points per game. I'm ranking him to hit that QB5 level against the Eagles this week.
Out: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia at New Orleans
Look. You're absolutely starting Hurts in regular redraft leagues. But anybody playing in DFS tournaments or other contests should think twice. As FantasyPros noted, the Saints held Dak Prescott to an overall QB15 finish in last week's beatdown in Dallas. They now turn their attention to Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles.
Yes, Hurts has back-to-back top-10 finishes to start the year. His 26 rushes tie him with Jayden Daniels for the most among quarterbacks. As Fansided.com's Joe Summer suggests, that rushing volume boosts Hurts' floor, but the hamstring-related absence of A.J. Brown could lower his ceiling. We saw Hurts' dependence on Brown in Week 1 when the two connected five times for 119 yards and a long touchdown against the Packers. In Week 2, with Brown watching from the sideline, Hurts threw for just 183 yards and an interception in the Eagles' loss to the Falcons.
But it goes beyond one game. Per Colin Cowherd, with Brown on the field, Hurts has averaged 233.8 passing yards per game. Without Brown, Hurts' passing yards drop to 148.4 yards per game. To be clear, those are career numbers go back to the early portion of Hurts' career.
New Orleans ranks second in rushing yards allowed this season. However, their past challenges with mobile quarterbacks like Hurts should be acknowledged.
Bottom Line: Let me reiterate: Start Hurts in regular redraft leagues. But wherever you're playing him, keep the expectations in check. He's QB4 with 20.14 points on the Footballguys Week 3 Projections. It'll take a significant rushing effort to hit that, and I think he will fall short. How far? How about a borderline QB1 finish as QB8 or lower, which isn't ideal considering he's the second-most expensive QB on DraftKings and third-most on FanDuel.
In: Zamir White, Las Vegas vs. Carolina
As I framed it in this week's Polarizing Players, "I'm such a glutton for punishment, but here we go . . ." Yes, I'm returning to the scene of the Week 1 crime when I went in on White, who came up woefully short. That carried over to Week 2. As things stand now, the former fourth-round pick has averaged 13.5 touches per game over the first two weeks, with just 84 scrimmage yards, including 68 on the ground. Adding to concerns over White, Alexander Mattison has cut into the workload.
Given all that, why go back to the well? There are a couple of reasons. First, with the Raiders passing attack showing signs of life in Baltimore, I have renewed faith that positive game scripts are possible. And even if Mattison has had the touchdown luck to date, The Sporting News notes that White has still out-touched him 27-13, and last week, White's snap share increased to 63 percent. This week, White is expected to be the primary back. "Our goal is to get 20-plus touches with him," head coach Antonio Pierce said of White on Monday.
If White gets the 20 carries Pierce wants? Running the ball has been easier against the Panthers than it has been against every other NFL team except the Colts. Carolina has allowed the most yards before contact per attempt this season and the seventh-highest rush Expected Points Added to the position.
Bottom Line: If not this week, when? Alvin Kamara compiled 22.0 fantasy points against the Panthers in Week 1. J.K. Dobbins scored 20.1 in Carolina last week. I'm not going to get carried away here. White is our RB27 with a projected 11.08 points. I'm going to predict closer to 15 points and a high-end R2/low-end RB1 finish.
Out: Kyren Williams, LA Rams vs. San Francisco
I get it. Williams is pretty much the last man standing in a Rams offense that will be without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. And while their absence could force the team to lean more heavily on Williams, it might also mean less offense. As ESPN.com's Tristan Cockroft suggests, that might explain why the Rams are the week's biggest underdog among home teams.
It's fair to point out the 49ers are dealing with injury issues of their own. But none of their problems are along the offensive line. On the other hand, the Rams have been dealing with issues up front since early in training camp. They currently have three players -- guards Jonah Jackson and Steve Avila and left tackle Joe Noteboom, who was starting in place of the suspended Alaric Jackson, on injured reserve. Jackson will return to the lineup this week, joining RT Rob Havenstein and RG Kevin Dotson as the starters still standing three weeks into the season.
I should note that Williams had 100 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns on 20 touches in a Week 2 loss to the 49ers last season and didn't play in a meaningless Week 18 matchup.
Still, the 49ers have given up the 13th-fewest fantasy points to running backs through two weeks despite facing Jets RB Breece Hall, who scored a touchdown but only managed 3.4 yards per carry in Week 1.
Bottom Line: Did I mention the Rams are this week's biggest underdog among home teams? Williams' Footballguys projections, RB8 with 16.26 points, is reasonable enough if the offense can stay on schedule. I don't think it can. I'm looking for an RB2 finish.
In: Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco at LA Rams
Also from this week's Polarizing Players, "It's Aiyuk Redemption Week . . ." After two weeks to ramp up after his summer-long hold-in, with Deebo Samuel Sr.. and Christian McCaffrey out (and George Kittle suddenly nursing a tender hamstring), it's time for the 49ers to unleash their former first-round pick. And it seems he's ready. In Week 1, his snap rate was 60 percent. Last week, he hit 88 percent. Expect him to be on the field that much or more in Los Angeles. Also expect Aiyuk's 13.8 percent target share to rise to something closer to Samuel's 29 percent in this one. And, as Berry noted, in Aiyuk's five games last season with eight-plus targets, he averaged 20.3 points per game.
And that would be great going up against the same Rams defense Arizona's Marvin Harrison Jr. destroyed -- doing most of his damage in one quarter -- last week. Detroit's Jameson Williams lit them up in Week 1. In particular, both Williams and Harrison burned the Rams deep. So, it's worth noting, as Cockroft pointed out, Aiyuk has had 29 percent of his catches go for 20-plus yards since the beginning of 2022.
Bottom Line: Let's get the Aiyuk party started, kids. His Week 3 Footballguys projection -- WR13 with 15.81 points -- is reasonable given the slow start. But Harrison scored 29 points against this defense last week; Williams had 24.4. I'm putting Aiyuk down for 20-plus and a solid WR1 finish.
Out: Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville at Buffalo
Pardon me while I enjoy some low-hanging fruit here . . . Thomas has been the most productive wideout on the Jaguars. I know. That's not saying much. Christian Kirk has disappointed over the first two weeks, while Gabe Davis, the most targeted receiver on the roster, hasn't done much with his opportunities. Thomas, meanwhile, has turned his 15 percent target share into 13 points per game, leaving him at WR27 as the Jags prepare for a trip to Buffalo for Monday Night Football.
Meanwhile, as ESPN's Mike Clay notes, Buffalo's revamped secondary has allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to receivers, including the fourth-fewest to the perimeter. Cockroft points out they've done all this despite facing three of the position's top 25 in terms of average draft position: Tyreek Hill (3-24-0 on six targets), Harrison Jr. (1-4-0 on three targets), and Jaylen Waddle (4-41-0 on four targets). All came up short against this defense.
Bottom Line: Thomas is WR30 on the Footballguys Week 3 Projections. A source tells me this offense "sucks." Considering my source was Trevor Lawrence, I think this might be my least bold pick of the week. Still, this is where I'm at: Thomas falls outside my WR3 window this week.
“We suck right now”
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) September 15, 2024
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars lost 7 of their last 8 games dating back to last season.
pic.twitter.com/qEYMhWsoaL
In: Kyle Pitts, Atlanta vs. Kansas City
Pitts and White notwithstanding, I'm not looking to dial up the same plays every week. And while Mike Gesicki's big game against Kansas City last week and his Week 3 matchup with the Commanders made the Bengals TE very appealing here, last week's game reminded me how lousy the Chiefs are at stopping opposing tight ends. How lousy? According to Cockroft, they've not only surrendered the most fantasy points to the position on the season (58.6 points), they've done so by a 21.4-point margin. Making those numbers even more interesting, the two tight ends responsible for racking them up, Gesicki, with 16, and Isaiah Likely, who finished Week 1 with a shocking 26.1 points, were hardly front-line fantasy prospects.
Pitts is coming off a quiet Week 2 game against the Eagles. If we're being honest, a touchdown in Week 1 was his lone highlight this season and he's fallen to fourth in the team's pecking order with a 10.9 percent target share. However, Brown notes that Kansas City runs the second-highest rate of two-high safety coverage in the NFL (71 percent), and Pitts is tied for the team lead with a 22.5 percent target share against that coverage. Falcons QB Kirk Cousins was clearly off his game in the opener and didn't hit stride until the second half last week. His career-long propensity for throwing to his tight ends will be a factor at some point.
Bottom Line: Pitts is projected to finish as TE11 with 8.96 points. I have Pitts as TE5 with 11.27 points. I'll give myself some wiggle room here and go with double-digit fantasy points as my official prediction.
Out: Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo vs. Jacksonville
As AtoZSports.com's Jon Helmkamp reminded readers this week, the word in Buffalo all offseason long had Kincaid being "the engine that drives the Bills offense." I heard it myself while talking to multiple beat writers who cover the team on a daily basis. With Stefon Diggs no longer in the picture, the consensus view had Kincaid pegged as the most-targeted receiving asset in this offense.
Through two games, Kincaid has a combined five catches for 44 receiving yards and zero touchdowns.
According to Brown, the Bills are trying to get Kincaid going, but the offense has become so run-heavy, and the defense is playing so well it has been a limiting factor for the tight end. And if the Jaguars can force Buffalo's offense to change their approach this week? Per Cockroft, Jacksonville's defense has thoroughly dominated the tight end position through two weeks, giving up just 5.3 fantasy points on seven targets. Going back to the midpoint of last season, the Jaguars have given up only 9.6 points per game to tight ends, sixth fewest in the league.
Bottom Line: While I expect a course correction for Kincaid, it'll come over time and in games when the Bills find it necessary to pass. Buffalo is a five-point favorite this weekend. We have Kincaid projected as TE8 with 9.84 points. He's currently TE23 on the season with an average of 4.7 points per game. I expect him to finish outside the TE1 range in this one.
My Favorite Outlier
If I believe the Rams will be playing from behind, they'll have to throw the ball. I tried Robinson last week, but it didn't work out, so I'm digging deeper this week. Robinson will be one starter this week, but it's unclear who the other two will be beyond some combination of Jordan Whittington, Tutu Atwell, and Tyler Johnson. As USA Today suggested, since Whittington played the entire second half last Sunday after Kupp went down, he seems like a natural fit to step in as a starter. Berry noted that Whittington ran 62 percent of his routes out of the slot after Kupp left the game last week, and he showed in the preseason that he can produce in this offense, catching 11 of 17 targets for 126 yards in two games.
You can listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show and Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.