Welcome back to Grade the Trade, where our Footballguys staffers discuss dynasty trades that they have been making. In this article, we have one trade with two very interesting pieces of analysis on it.
The Trade
League Format: 12-team SF PPR
- Sent: 2.06, 3.06
- Received: WR Diontae Johnson, Carolina Panthers
Diontae Johnson has recently found a new home in Carolina. I predict that he will be a volume monster for Bryce Young! I like the deal because I was able to trade for a player I think has a really good chance at producing with two assets that are both dart throws to have any high levels of production.
I initially offered a second, and the Johnson manager declined it. I am always willing to throw in an extra third or fourth-round rookie pick to get a deal done, so I tried that and the other manager accepted it. Those picks hold such low odds of actually hitting that it's worth it to me to get a deal done that I want.
Comments
Leo Paciga's Grade: A
I love this deal if we apply a lens to the values of this specific trade. I also love it if we look at it as a strategy.
One of the best aspects of the dynasty format is being draft-active, having draft capital to invest into a rookie class, OR having the capital to take advantage of the trade window that gets thrust open in every league during the weeks leading up to the NFL draft. Even in a deep class, a mid-2nd/mid-3rd combo has a fairly high miss rate in rookie drafts, even for experienced dynasty players. Rebuilding or title-chasing, I'll take the 27-year-old WR with 3 seasons of 80+ receptions under his belt over those 2 picks. If adding the 3.06 was the piece that pushed this deal over the top, then take note because adding a third may be the key to completing future deals with that specific manager.
This deal is a great example of maximizing the intersection of trade window and pick value.
Dan Hindery's Grade: C
I am not a fan of this type of trade. Even if we assume there is a 60 or 70 percent chance that you win this deal, you are unlikely to win it by much since Johnson turns 28 this summer and is unlikely to produce anything beyond a couple of WR3 seasons. You could end up losing it by a whole lot. There are currently a dozen wide receivers projected to go in the Top 50 overall of the draft, and you should be able to get one of them at 2.06. The last rookie class this deep was in 2020 when players like Tee Higgins, Brandon Aiyuk, and Michael Pittman Jr were going in the second round of rookie drafts. If you had traded a mid-2020 second-round pick for a 28-year-old like Robert Woods or Jarvis Landry instead of drafting one of the above rookies, you would have taken a major loss.
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