It's playoff time! Many critical start-sit decisions hinge on injuries which is why this article is so important. I break down the key injuries heading into the Week 15 slate below.
Understanding the NFL's Injury Report
(per Dr. Bramel - Footballguys OG)
"The injury report released by the NFL is [made up of] two reports. The first is the Practice Participation report, which lists which injured players practiced and their participation level. It also includes players who rested or missed practice for non-injury-related reasons. The second is the Game Status Report, which gives the probability a player will play, i.e., Questionable, Doubtful, Out. The Practice Participation Report is released every day of the week (Monday through Saturday). The Game Status Report is released with the Friday participation report (Wednesday for Thursday games, Saturday for Monday games). In this feature, I'll include the Game Status Listing and my expectations of their likelihood of playing."
If you are reading this article on Saturday, make sure to come back on Sunday morning as more updates trickle in within the next 24 hours.
Current Status on High-Impact Injured Players
Gameday Decision
- WR Josh Downs
- RB Breece Hall
- RB Tony Pollard
- RB Bucky Irving
- WR Ladd McConkey
- WR Jakobi Meyers
- QB Aidan O'Connell
Trending Doubtful (Likely Inactive)
- WR Chris Olave
- QB Derek Carr
- TE David Njoku
- RB Ken Walker III
- RB D'Andre Swift
Trending Probable (Expected to Play)
Ruled Out
- WR George Pickens (hamstring)
- TE Evan Engram (shoulder - season ending)
- TE Will Dissly (shoulder)
- WR Marquise Brown (shoulder)
- WR Cedric Tillman (concussion)
- RB Roschon Johnson (concussion)
* Key: Player, Team | Injury | Game Status Listing | Playing Expectation
Sunday 1:00 PM EST Games
WR Josh Downs, Indianapolis | Shoulder | Questionable | Projecting Active
Josh Downs was able to practice this week without any limitations on Thursday and Friday. Despite being a full participant, the Colts still have their second-year WR listed as "Questionable" and when Shane Steichen was asked if Downs would play he merely responded, "We'll see."
It looks like Indianapolis is not ready to indicate that Downs will be active but his injury timeline and practice reports that she should be able to return in Week 15.
Update: Josh Downs practiced without limitations and should be active in Week 15.
RB Breece Hall, NY Jets | Knee | Questionable | Likely Active
Breece Hall is one of the more risky starts this week. After a murky outlook at the start of this week, Ian Rapoport has reported that Hall will be active on Sunday.
Hall is dealing with an MCL sprain. Typically this injury results in multiple weeks missed. In fact of the RBs I have in my injury database, going back to 2017 90% of RBs have missed at least 2 games with an MCL sprain.
Drilling down deeper I would have expected RBs to see a slight dip in snap share/workload upon return but this was not the case. Besides a few outliers, most RBs resumed a normal workload. This aligns with the fantasy numbers as well. Upon return RBs average a minor decrease in production (8%).
So what does this all mean? The Jets could easily work in a 3-man rotation with Hall, Braleon Allen, and Isiah Davis, which is what makes Hall such a volatile prospect this Sunday. This would explain our Footballguys consensus rankings this week. Hall is buried down at RB28. However, the injury data suggests Hall should be a fine play. It's been a disappointing season but Hall is still a top-15 running back on the season. I would personally rank him in that range heading into Sunday.
Update: Based on all early reports, Breece Hall will play.
WR Chris Olave, New Orleans | Concussion | Questionable | Likely Inactive
Although eligible, Chris Olave has not been activated from IR, and the Saints have not started his practice window. I would not expect Olave to play in Week 15.
QB Derek Carr, New Orleans | Hand | Doubtiful | Likely Inactive
The Saints have Derek Carr listed as Doubtful but many reports has already revealed that Jake Haener will be under center this week.
Update: Carr is officially out.
RB Tony Pollard, Tennessee | Ankle | Questionable | Likely Active
Tony Pollard only practiced on Friday and was limited (LP) due to an ankle injury. Depending on the severity of a sprain, ankle injuries can be played through. Additionally even logging a LP bodes well for availability and reports from Titans' beat reporters indicate that Pollard will be active.
Regarding fantasy production, on average NFL RB that suffer a minor decline (11%), however, that is not enough to fade Pollard this Sunday.
Update: Per Ian Rapoport, Pollard will test his ankle in pregame warmups, but plans to play today.
TE David Njoku, Cleveland | Hamstring | Questionable | Likely Inactive
David Njoku has not practiced all week and the Browns appear to be making preparations for him to be inactive come Sunday. Hamstring injuries typically result in multiple weeks missed, so it is not surprising to see Njoku trending downward. He feels like a long-shot to play.
Update: Ian Rapoport posted Sunday morning that Njoku is going to test his hamstring out pregame warmups. He has note practiced all week, so he is still unlikely to play.
Sunday 3:25 PM EST Games
RB Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay | Back | Questionable | Likely Inactive
Bucky Irving is another play who has not practiced at all this week. Irving tried to play through a back injury in Week 14 but suffered a setback and exited early. Irving's practice reports point to him sitting out this week.
Update: Despite not practicing, Bucky Irving is slated to play on Sunday. There is some risk associated with putting him fantasy lineups considering Tampa Bay has Rachaad White and is comfortable with Sean Tucker in a back-up role. Our Footballguys Rankings have White all the way down at RB36, but he is likely closer to the high 20s range around RBs like Breece Hall and Isiah Pacheco.
WR Ladd McConkey, LA Chargers | Shoulder/Knee | Questionable | Likely Active
It's difficult to get a read on Ladd McConkey. Prior to Week 13 I did not think he would play due to a likely AC joint sprain, but he ended up playing and performing well.
In Week 14 McConkey was reported to be dealing with similar issues. I projected him active, but of course the rookie WR missed his first game of the season.
Last week the Chargers ruled McConkey out in the final minutes before kickoff suggesting that he was possibly close to playing. For this reason, I think returns to lineups in Week 15.
Update: McConkey is trending towards being active on Sunday.
TE Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo | Knee | Questionable | Likely Active
Dalton Kincaid is still listed as Questionable the the Bills' team injury report but this appears to be merely a formality. All reports out of Buffalo expect Kincaid to return to action Sunday.
Sunday Night Game 8:20 PM EST
RB Ken Walker III, Seattle | Calf | Doubtful | Likely Inactive
Ken Walker III is listed as "Doubtful" for Week 15 which almost is a guarantee that he will not play. Dating back to 2017 >95% of fantasy players listed as Doubtful do not play that week.
Update: Ken Walker III is out.
Monday Night Games
WR Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas | Ankle | Questionable | Projecting Active
Jakobi Meyers was limited on Friday due to an ankle injury. Meyers has been dealing with this ankle injury for the back half of the season but in the past played through it. I expect the same to continue.
QB Aidan O'Connell, Las Vegas | Knee | Questionable | Projecting Inactive
After a serious injury scare where it was believed that Aidan O'Connell fractured his leg, it appears that the Raiders medical staff was being overly cautious. O'Connell was diagnosed with a bone bruise and the Raiders are leaving the door open for him to play on Monday. Bone
bruises still usually result in time missed, which is why I am pessimistic that O'Connell actually suits up on Monday.
RB D'Andre Swift, Chicago | Quadriceps | Questionable | Projecting Active
D'Andre Swift did not pracdtice on Friday as he neures his qudariceps injury. Swift did not practice to start last week as well and ended up playing in Week 14. The Bears are slow playing this injury and giving the veteran RB time to rest. He should be ready come Monday night.
