Week 11 is another week where most of the NFL teams did the heavy lifting for us and ruled out players early. With that said there are some key fantasy WRs who are coming back from injury this week without any injury designation that I think warrant discussion. I discuss these players along with others below.
Understanding the NFL's Injury Report
(per Dr. Bramel - Footballguys OG)
"The injury report released by the NFL is [made up of] two reports. The first is the Practice Participation report, which lists which injured players practiced and their participation level. It also includes players who rested or missed practice for non-injury-related reasons. The second is the Game Status Report, which gives the probability a player will play, i.e., Questionable, Doubtful, Out. The Practice Participation Report is released every day of the week (Monday through Saturday). The Game Status Report is released with the Friday participation report (Wednesday for Thursday games, Saturday for Monday games). In this feature, I'll include the Game Status Listing and my expectations of their likelihood of playing."
If you are reading this article on Saturday, make sure to come back on Sunday morning as more updates trickle in within the next 24 hours.
Current Status on High-Impact Injured Players
Gameday Decision
Off Injury Report - Will Play
- WR Michael Pittman Jr.
- WR DK Metcalf
- WR Tee Higgins
- WR Nico Collins
Ruled Out
- QB Trevor Lawrence (shoulder - non-throwing)
- Isiah Pacheco (ankle)
- RB Tank Bigsby (ankle)
- TE Sam LaPorta (shoulder)
- TE Dalton Kincaid (knee)
- WR Keon Coleman (wrist)
- TE Noah Fant (groin)
- RB Jamaal Williams (groin)
* Key:
Player | Injury | Game Status Listing | Playing Expectation
Sunday 1:00 PM EST Games
WR Davante Adams, NY Jets | Wrist/Illness | Questionable | Projecting Active
Davante Adams missed Wednesday and Thursday's practice this week with a wrist injury/illness but the veteran wideout was able to return to practice fully on Friday.
It's hard to say which of the two impairments was limiting Adams the most, but reading between the lines, I suspect that his illness sidelined him to start the week. Jets' interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich has indicated that he suspects Adams will be active Sunday, and I am projecting the same. Players who log a full practice (FP) on Fridays start 86% of the time.
WR Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis | Back | No Injury Designation | Will Play
Michael Pittman Jr. is not carrying any injury designation into Sunday, but it is clear that the Colts' WR is not 100%. At the start of the season, it was suspected that the back injury may place Pittman on IR, but to his credit, Pittman has gutted it out. However, this has come at a price as Pittman's efficiency and fantasy production have not been this low since his rookie year. All these metrics are near or at career lows.
- Yards after catch
- Yards per route run
- Fantasy points per route run
- Fantasy points per game
Some might point to inconsistent QB play from the Colts as a cause for Pittman's struggles and surely that has factored in. Per my preseason findings in "Fantasy Performance and Re-Injury Rate by Position" back injuries rank as "high" in terms of lingering effects on fantasy production so this does align with the suspicion that Pittman's back injury is hampering him.
As it stands, our Footballguys WR Rankings for Week 11 have Pittman at WR52, meaning our analysts are seeing the same things I am. You should consider whether you have better options before plugging Pittman into your lineup.
RB Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh | Back | Questionable | 50/50
Jaylen Warren struggled with a knee injury earlier this season and now finds himself on the injury report again with a back injury. Warren was able to practice this week but in a limited fashion. I would not be shocked to see Warren miss another game as he has struggled to stay healthy this season while his counterpart Najee Harris has performed well in a workhorse role. Even if Warren is active, trusting him in any lineup would be hard.
Update: Jaylen Warren is expected to play today.
Sunday 4:05 PM EST Games
WR DK Metcalf, Seattle | MCL Sprain | No Injury Designation | Will Play
DK Metcalf is another WR off the injury report but bears mentioning heading into Week 11. Seattle has kept Metcalf out the last two games (three weeks due to a bye) with an MCL sprain and has already said that the WR will play this Sunday.
It's a small sample of the WRs I've looked at who return following an MCL sprain on average their fantasy points decrease by 40% compared to their healthy average. Metcalf ranks as WR23 heading into Week 11 but knowing he might struggle in his return, there are other players who would consider starting in his place.
TE George Kittle, San Francisco | Hamstring | Questionable | Projecting Active
Geroge Kittle is Questionable heading into Week 11 with a hamstring injury. Personally, I am not reading too much into this. Kittle has already popped up on the injury report six times this season, three with what I assume to be the same hamstring injury. All six times, Kittle has gone on to start and play week.
Kittle is currently the TE1 in PPR leagues. If active (and I assume he will be) he is a must-start.
Update: Kittle is unlikely to play in Week 11.
Sunday 4:25 PM EST Game
WR Amari Cooper, Buffalo | Wrist | Questionable | Projecting Active
Amari Cooper has missed the last two weeks with a wrist injury. This timeline is common and aligns with the average time missed for NFL WRs since 2017. Bills head coach Doug McDermott said that he was optimistic that Cooper would play Sunday, and so am I. With the absence of Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid, if active, Cooper should be heavily involved.
Sunday Night 8:20 PM EST Game
WR Tee Higgins, Cinncinati | Quadriceps | No Injury Designation | Will Play
Tee Higgins and the Bengals have slowed due to his quadriceps injury. Higgins has sat out the past 3 weeks but currently is not on the injury report heading into Week 11. Given the time missed, I expect Higgins to return to form and feel comfortable with him in all lineups.
Monday Night 7:15 PM EST Game
WR Nico Collins, Houston | Hamstring | No Injury Designation | Will Play
Nico Collins managers have waited a long time for the star WR to return to the field. Anytime a player misses for an extended period of time, it can cause some nerves to plant him back into lineups.
Filtering out WRs who miss at least 1 game with a hamstring injury, their fantasy production return to normal.
Even drilling down farther to WRs who miss 4-6 weeks the data suggests players go through an adjustment period with a 20% dip in fantasy points. However, even with that slight decline Collins would still be a top-10 WR in fantasy points per game.
