Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the summer.
Let's dive in . . .
Exceeding Expectations
As Associated Press sports writer Steve Reed wrote, "The Panthers' stunning 36-22 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders on Sunday showed coach Dave Canales was correct when he said Andy Dalton gives his team the best chance to win."
Dalton threw for 319 yards, three touchdowns, and no interceptions in a win over the Las Vegas Raiders.
According to ESPN.com's David Newton, Dalton's big game doesn't spell Bryce Young's end in Carolina, but it amplifies how badly the 2023 No. 1 overall pick played and justifies his benching.
Young hadn't thrown a touchdown pass in his previous four starts; Dalton had three before halftime, the most for a Carolina QB since 2015.
Canales felt the offense was close to succeeding but needed steadier quarterback play. Dalton delivered that right out of the chute, leading Carolina's first touchdown on an opening drive since 2022.
Dalton found five different receivers for gains of 20 yards or more just one week after the Panthers had just one pass play of 20 or more yards with Young under center in a blowout loss to the Los Angeles Chargers.
Dalton being confirmed as the starter for Week 4 -- and likely beyond -- is excellent news for investors in the ancillary players in this offense.
That starts with Diontae Johnson, the biggest beneficiary of the quarterback change. The former Steeler caught eight passes for 122 yards and a touchdown Sunday after being limited to 34 yards on five receptions in two games working with Young.
The Panthers brought Johnson in to be the team's No. 1 receiver, and they finally used him that way. Dalton targeted Johnson 14 times in Vegas.
Johnson could see even more passes thrown his way. Adam Thielen is on injured reserve after suffering a hamstring injury on his 31-yard touchdown catch. Jonathan Mingo and rookie Xavier Legette will move up in the rotation and could also benefit.
Meanwhile, with the Raiders forced to honor Dalton's arm, the Panthers were finally able to get things going on the ground as Chuba Hubbard racked up 114 yards on 21 carries, a healthy 5.4-yard average.
Hubbard added five catches for 55 yards and a touchdown on five targets. Miles Sanders rushed seven times for 17 yards and a touchdown as well.
It's worth remembering that Jonathon Brooks will be eligible to return in two weeks.
As ESPN.com's Ben Solak suggested, when Brooks joins the active roster, his opportunities for development will be much better than a 2023 rookie, such as Mingo, because the offense is functional under Dalton.
More immediately, a plus matchup against the Bengals this weekend makes Johnson an appealing start. If you were already forcing Hubbard into lineups, feel free to continue, perhaps with a bit more confidence.
And Dalton?
I'm not going to push it, but as long as he's starting, the Red Rifle merits consideration in 2QB and Superflex leagues. He goes up against the team that drafted him, the Bengals, this weekend . . .
The Yin To Our Volatility Yang
Associated Press sports writer Brett Martel framed it like this: "Did the Saints' new offense get exposed?
"Or perhaps New Orleans simply came up just short in a hard-fought game after losing a key lineman -- center Erik McCoy -- against a team with an elite defense."
Whatever the case, the Saints only managed 12 points in Sunday's loss to the Eagles.
In case you missed it, New Orleans scored 11 touchdowns in its first two games combined. They got in the end zone only once in Week 3 against the Eagles.
Derek Carr threw for 142 yards, with one touchdown and an interception. Alvin Kamara rushed for 87 yards on 26 carries. He also caught three passes for 40 yards during the game.
Rashid Shaheed was targeted five times but finished the game with zero receptions -- with at least one he should have caught for a touchdown bouncing off his chest instead. Chris Olave caught six passes for 86 yards and one touchdown.
So what are we to believe here? Who are the actual Saints?
The team that averaged 45.5 points a week in the first two games? Or Sunday's Saints?
The truth is, this offense is not as great as its start and not as horrible as it seemed Sunday.
It is worth noting that Kamara got 96 percent of the team's carries against the Eagles. According to Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason, that's the second-highest running back rush share of his career.
Shaheed drew a 21.7 percent target share. He's now hit a 20 percent target share each week this season, something he did just twice last year.
I'm going to keep playing those workloads. For Kamara. For Shaheed. Olave, too.
I'll also be mindful of the full range of outcomes, which, based on our three-week sample, is pretty broad. But we still have two great games versus one lousy outcome, and I'm convinced new coordinator Klint Kubiak has enough on the ball to keep it dialed in more often than not.
The Saints visit Atlanta this week, with the Falcons coming off a loss to the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night . . .
What Can We Count On?
Apparently, Malik Nabers.
The Giants rookie receiver caught two touchdowns during Sunday's 21-15 win over the Browns, finishing with eight catches for 78 yards. He's the first receiver in league history with 20-plus catches and three touchdowns in the first three games of their NFL career.
Nabers was the subject of a lot of hype heading into his rookie season -- and a lot of it came from me, and the first-round pick is living up to it. He currently has a 37.8 percent target share, the highest in the NFL.
"I have a lot of trust in him going up and getting the ball," said Daniel Jones, who completed 24 of 34 passes for 236 yards in Cleveland.
In last week's Fantasy Notebook, I used Nabers to hammer home a point I think is essential in fantasy: Great receivers don't need great quarterbacks to be productive.
But that brings up another point: Sometimes players -- quarterbacks included -- get better . . .
Improvement Happens
It might be happening with Jones right now. It absolutely happened with Geno Smith two years ago. It happened with Baker Mayfield last year. DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Mike Evans benefited greatly in those cases.
This summer, it was easy to find people dialed back a bit on Justin Jefferson in drafts because they were concerned about Sam Darnold.
Don't look now, but Darnold is getting better.
The well-traveled signal caller threw for 181 yards and four touchdowns (with no interceptions) in Minnesota's win over Houston on Sunday.
He's up to eight TDs through three games, completing 68 percent of his passes. Darnold is the only quarterback in the NFL with multiple touchdown passes in every game this year.
In 66 games with the Jets, Panthers, and 49ers, Darnold, the third pick overall in the 2018 NFL draft, earned one game with four touchdowns.
Only 27 years old (and younger than Joe Burrow), Darnold looks like a cagey veteran because he is one. As Solak noted, during his 59th career start, he was poised against pressure, able to create outside of structure, regularly found the right reads, and delivered the ball accurately against a tough Texans defense.
According to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, the Vikings believed from Day 1 that Darnold had untapped potential -- and as one team source told Fowler, "can throw the s--- out of the ball." He just needed to clean up the decision-making that plagued him in the past.
Head coach Kevin O'Connell and the staff -- and the presence of Jefferson -- have streamlined that decision-making for him.
As a result, his three games under O'Connell have been some of the best football we've ever seen Darnold play.
Solak contends O'Connell is as good as any coordinator in the league at working around a quarterback who might not be at the top tier of the position. He got the best production of Kirk Cousins' career in his final few seasons in Minnesota. O'Connell got a month of solid offense out of Joshua Dobbs, and Nick Mullens threw for 400 yards in a game last season.
"O'Connell is so stinkin' good at just getting a guy open -- whether by formation, motion, or route combination -- that so long as he has a willing QB," Solak added, "this offense stays explosive."
Darnold is willing. And so far, more than able.
With the Packers on the schedule in Week 4, it's not a massive reach to view Darnold as a borderline QB1 heading into this week . . .
Volume Is King
In Los Angeles, a week after Kyren Williams had his lowest yards per carry since becoming the starting running back last season, he scored all three of the Rams' touchdowns against San Francisco.
Even with the Rams playing from behind, Sean McVay didn't panic; the coach kept hammering the Niners' front line with Williams.
McVay deserves credit beyond his determination to keep running.
The Rams have run three-receiver sets more than anybody in the NFL over the last two seasons. On Sunday, the coach went away from 11 personnel, utilizing 12 personnel on 44.6 percent of snaps, his highest usage of two-tight end sets since Week 16, 2022.
Williams ended up with 24 carries for 89 yards and two catches for 27 more. Two scores came on the ground, and one was a reception.
It was Williams' second career game with three scrimmage touchdowns.
In the aftermath, Footballguy Sigmund Bloom offered up a relevant take:
No player's demise has been exaggerated more often than Kyren Williams. Props to everyone who has stuck with him through the last 5 months
— Sigmund Bloom (@SigmundBloom) September 22, 2024
Williams will carry that momentum into a Week 4 matchup against Chicago . . .
Sudden Impact
In that same game, 49ers wide receiver Jauan Jennings finished with 11 catches for 175 yards with three touchdowns.
With Deebo Samuel Sr. (calf) and George Kittle (hamstring) ruled out (and Christian McCaffery on IR with a calf/Achilles issue), Jennings was an obvious candidate to help fill the void. But as ESPN.com's Nick Wagoner suggests, nobody could have expected the outburst he provided.
While Brandon Aiyuk caught five of 10 targets, Jennings was the focal point of the passing game all day, setting career highs in catches, yards, and touchdowns.
With Samuel expected to miss at least this week (and possibly more), Jennings should be a priority waiver add and merits a spot in lineups against the Patriots in Week 4 . . .
Rising Up The Ranks
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rookie RB Bucky Irving will see more work, head coach Todd Bowles told reporters Monday, Sept. 23.
To be fair, Irving's role was already expanding.
As Zachariason pointed out, Irving's percentage of the team's running back carries by week has gone from 37.5 percent in Week 1 to 41.2 in Week 2 to 56.3 percent on Sunday.
Rachaad White's receiving role remains intact, but Irving's three-week rise is a definite trend that Bowles has acknowledged.
It's time to believe in Irving as more than a limiting factor for White. The rookie seems like a viable flex-level play heading into Week 4.
We'll see if Irving can't turn that momentum into more . . .
Also On The Rise?
How about Quentin Johnston? As ESPN.com's Kris Rhim noted, the second-year wideout scored the Chargers' only touchdown of the day in Pittsburgh last weekend, hauling in a 27-yard reception.
Johnston has continued to blossom after an underwhelming rookie season and has become one of Justin Herbert's favorite targets.
He finished with two catches for 44 yards. He has three touchdowns this season, more than he had all of last year. Johnston is currently WR17 with an average of 13.8 fantasy points per game . . .
Stand By This Man
I understand the frustration, but I will keep playing Travis Kelce even though the veteran tight end has just eight catches on 12 targets for 69 yards.
While it's only been three games, we've seen a significant dip in production. Kelce's 8.6 yards per reception is well off his career average of 12.5 -- or even last year's mark of 10.6. His 2.7 receptions per game is way off last year's 6.2.
I'll readily acknowledge Kelce is getting older, and receiver Rashee Rice has been Kansas City's clear go-to receiver, with 24 catches for 288 yards with two TDs.
But we're very close to having a different conversation here.
Kelce came just short of his first touchdown in Week 2, getting tackled inside the 1-yard line. He also had an impressive 41-yard catch-and-run nullified by a holding penalty.
He's playing 85 percent of the snaps, is second on the Chiefs in routes run, and is tied for the most red-zone targets on the team.
According to The Athletic's Nate Taylor, Kelce has created an average separation of 3.5 yards, tied for 13th among tight ends, according to Next Gen Stats. Another star player has an average separation of 3.6 yards this season. That player Vikings wideout Jefferson, who has produced 14 receptions on 21 targets for 273 yards and three touchdowns.
I know. All that sounds great, but Kelce's results are what they are.
He's been held to under 35 yards without a touchdown in all three games this season. According to Pro Football Focus's Nathan Jahnke, that only happened three times all last season.
Still, the opportunities are there, and I'm going to hold tight in an environment where tight ends are coming up short across the board -- at least for now . . .
This Man? Not So Much
While Kelce's underlying numbers indicate the opportunities are there and the results haven't caught up, the same can't be said of Baltimore TE Mark Andrews.
According to Zachariason, Andrews played just 33 percent of Baltimore's snaps on Sunday and ran six routes.
Andrews played 74 and 63 percent of the Ravens' snaps in Weeks 1 and 2, respectively.
All of this could have been due to a run-heavy approach in Dallas. Nonetheless, Andrews failed to catch his lone target against the Cowboys, while Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar cut into his playing time.
As Jahnke suggested, it's too early to give up on Andrews completely, but we've probably reached a point where he can't be in fantasy starting lineups until he proves otherwise . . .
Tanking On Tank?
Texans wide receiver Tank Dell Dell is dealing with a minor hand/wrist issue and took a shot to the ribs in Minnesota Sunday, but health isn't the concern here. The bigger problem is Dell has seen fewer than 15 percent of Houston's targets in their last two games.
According to Zachariason, Dell was below a 15 percent target share just three times in healthy games last season.
With Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs getting the bulk of the work -- according to Jahnke, Dell played in three of a possible 19 snaps in two-receiver sets, costing him 11 pass plays -- it's getting harder to justify keeping Dell in my lineups until I see more . . .
The Shutdown Corner
Do you know who else I'm not all that excited about playing? Whoever is going up against Broncos cornerback Patrick Surtain II.
Surtain held Buccaneers WR Mike Evans to one catch for 8 yards in man coverage.
ESPN's Mike Clay notes the NFL's highest-paid corner had already shadowed DK Metcalf and George Pickens this season, aligning against the two on a combined 35 of 42 routes, including 31 of 31 perimeter routes. Metcalf posted a 3-29-0 receiving line on four targets, and Pickens was held to 2-29-0, also on four targets.
Metcalf was the highest fantasy scorer of the three, with 5.9 points.
Next up for Surtain? Garrett Wilson and the Jets. Set your expectations accordingly . . .
The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly
Every week, the NFL delivers a remarkable range of outcomes. And every week, I'll encapsulate that broad expanse here.
The Good
As NFL.com's Nick Shook put it: "Football world, meet Jayden Daniels."
There have been few -- if any -- rookie prime-time debuts better than Daniels' showing on Monday night when he keyed the Washington Commanders' 38-33 upset win over the host Cincinnati Bengals.
Daniels completed a rookie-record 91.3 percent of his passes as he was 21-of-23 passing for 254 yards with no interceptions and a 141.7 rating.
He added 39 rushing yards and had three touchdowns in total, two through the air and one on the ground.
His best moment came last, when he stood in the pocket, knowing he would get hammered, and launched a strike to Terry McLaurin anyway, hooking up with his best receiver for a decisive 27-yard touchdown. McLaurin finished with four catches for 100 yards.
Washington now has finished 14 consecutive full drives with points.
Monday night was Washington's first turn in the national spotlight, so Daniels, who has looked the part since his first preseason snaps, is no longer a secret . . .
The Bad
With Anthony Richardson making his seventh career start and being the NFL's youngest starting quarterback, the Colts adjusted their offensive formula to acknowledge he's still developing.
One week after asking Richardson to drop back 36 times in a loss at Green Bay, the Colts used a more ground-based attack against Chicago.
Richardson did make some plays late in the game to help the Colts finish off the Bears for their first win of the season, but the second-year QB remains a work in progress.
Richardson has now thrown six interceptions during the season and has yet to complete more than half of his passes in a game this year.
The Colts essentially won despite him Sunday. That needs to change.
So much so that ESPN's Dan Graziano wonders if the Colts, who believe Richardson needs to play in games to improve, nonetheless decide to give him a week or so off to clear his head.
Graziano's colleague Fowler doesn't think that will be the case. Fowler notes that head coach Shane Steichen has long been a fan of Richardson's acumen and physical traits.
The problem this week is he's playing the Steelers, who lead the league in scoring defense and total defense.
So, even if the Colts feel compelled to stick with him (and , fantasy managers should feel free to take a different approach with Richardson, who is currently QB19 with an average of 13.7 points per game . . .
The Ugly
Where do the Dolphins go from here at quarterback? As ESPN.com's Marcel Louis-Jacques noted, it was one game -- one awful game -- but the Dolphins' offense did not work under Skylar Thompson.
The third-year quarterback was slow to make decisions, an issue that's plagued him since his rookie year in 2021. That slow processing speed resulted in five sacks, and he was eventually knocked out of the game with a chest injury. Tim Boyle took over, and it didn't get better.
Most troubling, Miami couldn't move the ball on the ground (65 rushing yards on 18 attempts).
The Dolphins didn't register 100 yards of offense until their second drive of the third quarter and finished 1-of-12 on third-down attempts.
Miami signed Tyler Huntley last week, and he might have to step into a starting role with Tua Tagovailoa set to miss at least three more games. Resetting expectations for Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and even De'Von Achane seems wise . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Hit the site for all the usual Rankings, Projections, articles, and other goodness available weekly.
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Otherwise, see you back here next Thursday for another Fantasy Notebook.
You can listen to Harris weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show and Sundays on the SXM Fantasy Football Pregame show on Sirius channel 87, and Saturday nights on SiriusXM NFL Radio, Sirius channel 88.
