Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the summer.
Let's dive in . . .
Will A New Offense Really Sink Herbert?
The Chargers announced Thursday that quarterback Justin Herbert was diagnosed with an injury to the plantar fascia in his right foot following Wednesday's practice. Doctors have recommended approximately two weeks in a boot, followed by a gradual return to play.
Still, the team expects Herbert to be ready to play against the Raiders in the regular-season opener.
And that's excellent news.
But if we weren't already concerned enough about Herbert's outlook -- and based on his QB17 Average Draft Position (ADP), we absolutely were -- this injury won't ease the worried fantasy hive mind.
Sure, Herbert has averaged more than 4,300 passing yards and 28 touchdown passes while completing 66.6 percent of his passes during his first four seasons. He's thrown for more than 5,000 yards in a season and has thrown at least 30 touchdown passes twice during his career.
But even before the foot issue arose this week, fantasy investors were skeptical of Herbert's ability to produce at a similar level this season. The concerns lie in offensive coordinator Greg Roman's tendency to go run-heavy as a play-caller, including during his past collaboration with Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh.
As NFL.com's Eric Edholm recently reminded readers, Harbaugh coached the 49ers from 2011 to 2014 with Roman as his coordinator. They ranked no higher than 29th in the NFL in pass attempts and no lower than ninth in rushing attempts in any of their four seasons. Roman also leaned into similar run-heavy approaches in subsequent stops as coordinator in Buffalo and Baltimore.
Footballguy Jason Wood has expressed his concerns about Herbert multiple times, most notably in his annual look at What To Expect From The New 2024 NFL Play-Callers.
Wood also relayed his stance in an article on Chargers rookie receiver Ladd McConkey. "In 10 years as an NFL play-caller," Wood wrote, "Roman's teams have finished at or near the bottom of the league in pass attempts all but once, and they have averaged 19th in passing touchdowns. It's hard to get excited about Herbert or his receivers if you're counting on volume to ensure success."
Matt Waldman, author of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio (and who recently offered up his detailed look at McConkey's possible outcomes this season in the Gut Check), offers a counterpoint. Waldman contends that beyond Lamar Jackson, and even though he had limitations outside the numbers on timing routes early in his career, you can't name a quarterback under Roman who was remotely as good of a passer as Herbert.
Waldman acknowledges that Colin Kaepernick was a good quarterback, but he wasn't a great passer. Alex Smith? Not great. The Bills quarterbacks? Also not great.
Herbert is a great passer.
And as fantasy managers often do, we might be overstating the case.
After all, the Chargers won't suddenly stop throwing the ball. There might be fewer attempts per game, but the overall passing attack might be more efficient and still effective in a Harbaugh offense.
It's created quite the fantasy conundrum.
My approach to fantasy football has been the same over nearly 40 years: Every player at the right price.
Is QB17 -- and Wood's projections for Herbert match that average draft position -- the right price?
Maybe.
But with players like Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, and Baker Mayfield all being drafted after him, there are safer players in better situations waiting if I pass on Herbert . . .
Status Quo For Harris, Warren
As I noted in a previous Fantasy Notebook, before Arthur Smith's arrival as offensive coordinator, Steelers owner Art Rooney II expressed a desire to return to a ground attack and to improve the quality of quarterback play.
"I think we have two high-performing running backs, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, and they, along with an improving offensive line, can be the foundation of success going forward," Rooney II said.
The Steelers have worked hard to bolster that foundation. While they put some effort into upgrading the offensive line, they still rank 20th as a run-blocking unit on Footballguy Matt Bitonti's latest Offensive Line Rankings.
So, Smith's hiring might have a more immediate impact.
In five seasons as an offensive play-caller, his offenses in Atlanta and Tennessee consistently had some of the league's best rushing attacks.
In Tennessee, Smith's teams -- with powerhouse Derrick Henry in the lead role -- ranked second once and third twice in total rushing yards.
Smith also found success on the ground without Henry as 2022 Falcons fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier rushed for 1,035 yards in a breakout rookie season. The Falcons ranked third in rushing yards and 10th in rushing touchdowns. In 2023, the Falcons ranked ninth in rushing yards per game and 15th in rushing touchdowns, with Bijan Robinson and Allgeier sharing the workload.
The Steelers rushed for 2,010 yards over the 2023 regular season, including a surge of two 100-yard rushing games by Harris in the last two regular-season contests. They ranked 13th in rushing yards and 11th in rushing touchdowns, leaving plenty of room for improvement.
Meanwhile, with most of the attention in training camp on the quarterback position, where Russell Wilson's minor calf injury has opened the door for Justin Fields to make it a real competition, fantasy managers should remain mindful of Rooney II's comment.
The Steelers are going to run the football.
And according to Pittsburgh Post-Gazette staffer Gerry Dulac, "If ever there were a running back who would appear to be the perfect fit for Smith's offense, it is Harris.
"He is the closest thing to Derrick Henry that the Steelers currently have."
Dulac reminded readers that Henry had back-to-back seasons of 1,540 and 2,027 yards rushing with the Titans when Smith was their offensive coordinator. He became only the eighth player in league history to rush for more than 2,000 yards in a season. Henry's size and physical style of play were a perfect fit for Smith's scheme.
So, too, would Harris. Or so it would appear.
When the Steelers elected not to pick up the fifth-year option on Harris' rookie contract -- a move that would have cost them $6.9 million in 2025 -- sources told Dulac they wanted to see how their fourth-year running back would perform in Smith's offense.
But Dulac believes there's more to the decision than that.
According to his sources, the Steelers suspect their other running back, Jaylen Warren, could be a better fit in Smith's offense. Before they commit another contract to Harris, their No. 1 pick in 2021, they want to be sure they have the right back in place.
Even though Harris, with his powerful style, is the logical choice for that role, Warren has given them reason to reassess the situation.
Harris has been productive, delivering three 1,000-yard performances in three seasons. He's also been durable, playing in all 51 regular-season games over that span. But with Warren working his way further into the mix, Harris played his fewest snaps (53 percent) in 2023.
Harris had a career-best 4.1 yards per carry and eight rushing touchdowns. Warren finished with 784 yards rushing and averaged 5.3 yards per attempt, nearly 1½ yards more than Harris. In addition, Warren proved to be a more productive receiver, catching twice as many passes (61 to 29) for more than double the amount of yards (370 to 170).
He has also proven to be more than adequate in protecting the quarterback in third-down situations, something he has shown since the first day of training camp when he was a rookie.
All told, Harris (1,215) and Warren (1,154) finished with nearly the same yards from scrimmage. The only running back duo with more total scrimmage yards (2,369) was Detroit's Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, who combined for 2,393 yards.
So, how should we approach this backfield as fantasy managers?
Harris is RB25 with a reasonable seventh-round price. Warren is RB28, going round later.
My view of this tandem hasn't changed much over the course of the offseason.
The direction you take should depend on how you're building your roster.
After three straight seasons with 250-plus carries, at least eight TDs, zero games missed, and better than 10 fantasy points per game, Harris is the safer play here.
He might be a better option if you took risks earlier in your draft.
Those who played it safe early might benefit from Warren's affordable upside . . .
Fields Gaining Ground?
Back to the quarterback situation . . . With the Steelers taking a cautious approach to Wilson's recovery, Fields has gotten extra reps.
It's easy to assume Wilson has the starting job all sewed up, but after visiting Steelers camp and talking to people there, ESPN's Dan Graziano is not so sure.
Graziano explained, "Pittsburgh isn't financially committed to either guy in any significant way. The coaching staff has no prior attachment to either and no preconceived notions about either. In that way, this is a unique quarterback competition that could absolutely still go either way -- especially if Wilson misses more practice time and Fields gets a better chance than expected to close the race."
Graziano believes the Week 1 starter here is more of a coin flip than most people think. While Wilson has been set up as the leader in the competition, Graziano -- acknowledging he's going out on a limb -- is predicting Fields will show enough through camp to catch Wilson and claim the Week 1 starting spot.
And if he does?
I'll remind you that in 2023, Fields was fantasy's QB10 in Chicago on a points-per-game basis, with 18.3.
That was ahead of Kyler Murray, Herbert, Patrick Mahomes II, Anthony Richardson, Wilson, Jared Goff, Trevor Lawrence, Tagovailoa, Baker Mayfield, Matthew Stafford, and Geno Smith . . .
Money Matters 1: Hill Gets Paid
As Profootballtalk.com framed it: "Tyreek Hill recently said that the day quarterback Tua Tagovailoa received his extension was 'the best feeling ever.'"
Perhaps Saturday's news will come close.
The Dolphins agreed to a restructured contract with the speedy wideout that will keep him among the highest-paid skill position players in the NFL.
A source told ESPN's Adam Schefter that the restructured deal is worth $90 million over the next three years, with $65 million of it guaranteed. No new years were added to the four-year, $120 million extension Hill signed with the team in 2022, but the $106.5 million in updated fully guaranteed money is the most ever for a wide receiver.
The deal represents the most guaranteed money added to a contract without adding years in NFL history.
The Dolphins traded for Hill during the 2022 offseason, and, as ESPN.com's Marcel Louis-Jacques contends, he has transformed their offense.
Hill, who was just named No. 1 on the NFL's annual top 100 list, led the league with 1,799 yards and 13 touchdowns while playing just 16 games last season. In 2022, his first year with Miami, Hill caught 119 passes for 1,710 yards with seven touchdowns. He leads all players with 3,509 yards in that span, and only Davante Adams received more than Hill's 30.7 percent of his team's targets.
Hill is also one of the NFL's preeminent downfield threats; he's tied with Justin Jefferson for the most receptions of at least 20 yards, with 54 over the past two seasons. Hill leads all skill position players with nine plays of at least 50 yards since 2022 -- more than 24 teams have recorded in that same span.
And it's possible we've yet to see his ceiling.
Remember, Hill declared before the start of last season that he was going to break the single-season receiving yardage record and be the first player ever to finish a season with 2,000 receiving yards. He was well on his way to achieving that for most of the year. It wasn't until an ankle injury sidelined him in Week 15 that he fell behind the quest to top Calvin Johnson's record 1,964 receiving yards set in 2012.
With three more years on his contract, he'll have ample opportunity to reach it.
Remember, the Dolphins have now completed three new deals this offseason. Hill, with his WR2 ADP, is now under contract through 2026, while Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle are locked in through 2028 . . .
Money Matters 2: Moore Paid Like The Bears Mean It
The Bears and wide receiver DJ Moore agreed on a four-year, $110 million contract extension, the largest in franchise history. The 27-year-old had two years remaining on his contract and was slated to hit free agency in 2026.
Moore was the focal point of a 2023 trade that sent the No. 1 overall pick from Chicago to Carolina in exchange for Moore and four draft picks, including one that became this year's first overall pick.
Chicago used that to land their franchise quarterback, Caleb Williams.
Moore is now under contract through the 2029 season. He leads a wide receiver room with 12-year veteran Keenan Allen and talented rookie Rome Odunze, the ninth pick overall.
Remember, Moore put together a career year in his first season in Chicago, leading the team in receptions (96), receiving yards (1,364), receiving yards per game (80.2) and receiving touchdowns (8).
He accounted for 39.9 percent of the Bears' receiving yards last season, the highest percentage of any player for a team in 2023.
Playing with Fields and Tyson Bagent as his triggermen, Moore finished last season as WR6. His current ADP is WR20 with a late-third-round price tag.
Allen, who was fantasy's WR3 through Week 14 with the Chargers last season -- and he might have finished in that range if an injury hadn't sidelined him the final four games -- is WR31 right now. He's being drafted at the tail end of Round 5. Odunze is WR39 going in Round 7.
Factoring in Allen and Odunze, what should we expect from Moore?
The Footballguys projections are 78 catches, 1,146 yards, and six touchdowns, which ranks 17 among all wideouts and puts Moore three spots ahead of ADP, meaning they pretty much align.
But is Moore capable of outproducing expectations?
Absolutely.
Moore has caught passes from 12 different quarterbacks since entering the league in 2018 and ranks seventh in the NFL in receiving yards over that span.
And not all of those quarterbacks have been great.
Remember, he topped 1,100 receiving yards in three straight seasons with the Panthers -- 2019-21 -- despite Carolina's unstable quarterback situation. He played with late-career Cam Newton, Taylor Heinicke, Kyle Allen, Will Grier, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Darnold, and P.J. Walker during that span before his production dipped in 2022.
Still, he set a career-best for touchdown receptions, with Mayfield and Darnold starting at least five games each that year.
All in all, Moore had 5,201 receiving yards in five seasons as a Panther.
That consistent production over time was impressive, given the circumstances.
And now that it appears he no longer needs to rely on the quarterback-proof card he's earned so far, is it fair to wonder if we're underestimating Moore's ceiling?
We have to consider that. I mean, Williams was this year's "generational talent," right?
He has the arm strength, accuracy, and mobility to set himself apart at the pro level. Williams entered the NFL with 120 touchdowns -- 93 of them passes -- over three seasons of college play. His creativity and improvisational skills allow him to extend plays in a manner that will challenge opposing coordinators.
As NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah put it, "Williams has franchise-altering upside."
My guess is that once Williams hits stride, he'll alter the upside of his supporting cast as well. And Moore, who ranked ninth in the NFL last year with 550 yards after the catch, is locked in to help maximize Williams' talent for the long haul.
That's something Dynasty investors shouldn't overlook when considering Moore and Odunze . . .
Diontae's Super Power
Footballguy Phil Alexander wrote in last week's 5 Players on the Rise article, "No one wants anything to do with the Carolina offense after Bryce Young's disastrous rookie year. But there are reasons to be optimistic about Diontae Johnson's fantasy prospects in his first year in Carolina."
I'm on board with this.
As our friend Matt Harmon of Reception Perception fame recently suggested, while not a flawless player, what Johnson does well . . . He does really well.
So what is it he does well?
ESPN.com's David Newton said, "The former Steeler gives Young a legitimate No. 1 receiver who can create separation."
That's Johnson's super power.
Johnson's open score ranking -- an ESPN analytic that defines the likelihood of a receiver being able to complete a catch if targeted -- ranks first in the NFL over the past two seasons.
None of Carolina's other receivers ranked higher than 37th last season.
For context, other players who finished inside the top 10 include fantasy mainstays like CeeDee Lamb, Keenan Allen, Tyreek Hill, A.J. Brown, and Stefon Diggs.
I've mentioned this before, but the Panthers' focus all offseason has been getting Young on track.
Canales was hired based on his success in turning around the careers of Geno Smith in Seattle in 2022 and Baker Mayfield in Tampa Bay last season. Carolina also improved its offensive line and added a high-end running back in rookie Jonathon Brooks.
But back to Johnson . . . As Alexander put it, "Johnson is underrated. Full stop."
Johnson will also help open passing lanes for other receivers and the tight ends, who should see an expanded role in Canales' offense.
And Alexander adds something I've been saying every chance I get: "It's not like fantasy WR1s can't come from bad or mediocre offenses. Look no further than Mike Evans' and Moore's top-12 fantasy finishes last season."
Or how about we bring this closer to home and point to Adam Thielen being WR12 through the first 12 weeks last season with the struggling Young as his QB?
But here's the best part: Johnson's current ADP is WR38, meaning you can draft him as your WR4 in the seventh round. I'm leaning into that every chance I get . . .
One last note in Carolina . . . Canales said on Saturday that Brooks will not play during the preseason and could start the 2024 campaign on the reserve/physically unable to perform list.
This isn't a huge surprise.
After tearing an ACL last November, Brooks opened training camp on the active/non-football injury list. The Panthers drafted him realizing he was still recovering from that injury, and Canales said this was the plan all all along.
When might Brooks be ready?
"Something around Week 3, Week 4 would be great," Canales said, adding that doesn't mean Brooks won't be active before then.
Chuba Hubbard remains at the top of Carolina's depth chart at running back, followed by Miles Sanders.
Still, as SI.com's Tim Weaver noted, the writing is on the wall. Once Brooks is 100 percent healthy, it's only a matter of time before he takes the reins and becomes the Panthers' lead rusher . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. As exhibition play draws near, staying on top of all the latest developments becomes more critical.
The Footballguys Team-By-Team NFL Overviews offer a great starting point in your 2023 journey. Then be sure you're getting the Footballguys Daily Email Update -- the biggest stories in football, summarized, explained, and delivered straight to your inbox daily.
Also, listen to the Footballguys Daily Update podcast, released every weekday morning. I give you a 10-minute rundown of the news that matters most and put it all in context to help you sort out the fantasy impact.
And check out all three Footballguys YouTube channels: The Audible, Footballguys Fantasy Football, and Footballguys Dynasty Football.
I'll be at the Fantasy Football Expo next week, so look for me there. Otherwise, I'll see you right here, with another big-picture look at situations of fantasy interest in two weeks.
Until then.
You can follow Harris on X @footballdiehard. Listen to him weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show. That's Sirius Channel 210.
