Welcome to the weekly Fantasy Notebook, the must-stop spot for keeping your finger on the pulse of Fantasy Nation. NFL news and developments drive fantasy values. The Notebook is here to keep you in the loop on all of it throughout the summer.
Let's dive in . . .
Let Him Eat
The reports out of San Francisco are semi-horrifying . . If you believe them.
In June, the 49ers signed running back Christian McCaffrey to a new $38 million contract, acknowledging his vital importance in Kyle Shanahan's offense.
But it seems the Niners want to get the desired production out of the reigning Offensive Player of the Year without as much wear and tear.
Shanahan recently said he'd like to see the workload shared more than last season to protect CMC from the bumps and bruises that can lead to more significant injuries.
"We have guys that can run the ball," Shanahan said. "We have to protect Christian from himself." Of course, Shanahan also acknowledged that McCaffrey doesn't like to leave the field, no matter the situation.
Speaking for those of us invested in the star running back, we appreciate that.
After all, the volume McCaffrey enjoys in San Francisco plays a massive role in the production that's locked him into the conversation for the first pick overall, regardless of fantasy format.
McCaffrey had 272 carries in 16 games in 2023, tied for second-most in the NFL. His 17 carries per game ranked fourth in the league. Add in 67 catches, and he got 339 turns to rack up fantasy points last season.
And rack them up he did.
McCaffrey averaged 24.7 fantasy points per game, well ahead of the pack. He scored at least 25 points five times for a second straight year. This past season, he scored more than 30 points thrice and more than 40 points twice.
So, what do we make of Shanahan's statement that he'd like to limit the physical toll from 20 touches a game?
"You'd like to take some of that off of him and give it to other guys also," Shanahan said.
You'd like to . . . But will you? Can you?
I want to eat less cake. Yet when presented with cake, I return an empty plate more often than not.
Up to this point, Shanahan has handled McCaffrey the same way.
Last season, Elijah Mitchell had 75 carries in 11 games, and Jordan Mason took 40. The ability to cut into CMC's workload could depend on whether Mitchell can stay healthier in 2024. Fourth-round rookie Isaac Guerendo could also push into the mix with a strong training camp and preseason -- Footballguy Matt Waldman has more on him in his 15 Fantasy Prospects Under the ADP Radar.
But for now, none of those backs offer the play-to-play upside McCaffrey gives this offense. Ultimately, it will be tough for Shanahan to take his best weapon off the field outside of blowouts.
Fantasy managers should keep that in mind, especially if McCaffrey slides out of the 1.01 in your draft . . .
The Case For Allen Remaining QB1
The question in Buffalo and the streets of Fantasy Nation are the same: How will Josh Allen perform without Stefon Diggs?
In case you're just getting up to speed (and if that's you, there's something waiting for you at the end of this article), the Bills traded Diggs to the Texans in the offseason and drafted Keon Coleman in the second round.
Coleman joins Khalil Shakir and free agent acquisitions Curtis Samuel, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and Chase Claypool in a revamped Buffalo receiving corps that will also be without Gabe Davis, who moved on in free agency.
As NFL.com's Eric Edholm points out, Shakir is the only receiver on the roster who has caught a pass from Allen.
Given all this, the team's tight ends, Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox, project to carry a more significant share of the load. But Edholm contends the upside of Shakir and Coleman can't be overlooked.
Edholm also argues that James Cook and Samuel figure to combine for more than 100 catches -- and that might be low. Buffalo News staffer Ryan O'Halloran suggested to me last month, based on what he saw during OTAs, that Samuel could lead the team in catches this year.
Whatever the case, Edholhm believes the loss of Diggs is an overblown story because Allen is the offensive meal ticket here.
Edholm's premise is there may be an addition-by-subtraction quotient at play here. Allen might benefit from not having to force-feed Diggs or issue targets to the inconsistent Davis.
Footballguy Jordan McNamara offers more insight into this in his 9 Quarterback Camp Storylines to Watch.
Per McMamara, in 27 career games without Digg, Allen averaged 19.7 points per game, 28.1 attempts, 6.4 yards per attempt, and 184 passing yards.
In 67 games with Diggs, Allen averaged 27.4 points per game, 35.6 attempts, 7.6 yards per attempt, and 264.8 yards per game.
So there's a clear difference.
Nonetheless, Digg's nosedive last season wasn't detrimental to the QB.
Allen finished as QB1 from week 10 through week 18, when Diggs averaged 43 receiving yards per game, scored a single touchdown, and failed to hit the 100-yard mark even once.
The more significant issue for Allen might be the return of Joe Brady as their offensive coordinator. Under Brady, Allen averaged 2.5 fewer pass attempts and 18 fewer pass yards per game.
Still, you don't want to overthink this.
Allen has thrown for more than 4,000 yards in each of his last four seasons. He's averaged 34 TD passes over that span. He's also averaged 596 rushing yards and 9 TD runs in the previous five years.
More to the point, since 2020, Allen has finished as QB1 three times and QB2 once.
So yes. Allen still merits his QB1 ranking on the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings. And it matches his Underdog ADP.
But unlike previous seasons, when Allen was drafted as high as Round 2, he's currently going in early Round 4, making him a bit more appealing and accessible . . .
Murray's Upward Trajectory
Kyler Murray missed all of last offseason and the first half of the regular season while recovering from a torn ACL, so this is also his first full offseason working in the offense that coordinator Drew Petzing installed last year.
Tight end Trey McBride said that the quarterback has been putting in all the necessary work over the last few months and believes that has put Murray in position for his biggest year as a professional.
"He has a ton of weapons out there, and I have full confidence that he's capable of an MVP season."
Murray has made no secret of his high expectations for an offense that added wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. at the top of the draft.
But McBride points to weapons beyond himself and Harrison -- receivers Greg Dortch, Michael Wilson, Zay Jones, James Conner, and rookie running back Trey Benson -- as reasons to be enthusiastic about Murray.
If nothing else, Murray's having a year in Petzing's system under his belt is a plus. But more than that, Murray has flashed MVP-caliber talent in recent years.
The Cardinals were 7-0 in 2021 when an ankle sprain slowed Murray's and the team's momentum. Murray was QB2 through those seven games, scoring an average of 24.1 fantasy points per game.
Murray returned, but he wasn't able to recapture the magic.
NFL.com's Michael Baca reminded readers those struggles carried over to 2022 until Murray's season-ending ACL tear added to the woes in a four-win season, ultimately leading to regime change in Arizona.
After spending the offseason rehabbing from that knee injury, Murray didn't return to the starting lineup until Week 10 last season.
He started the remaining eight contests, throwing for 1,799 yards and accounted for 13 total touchdowns (10 passing, three rushing).
Murray was QB10 for fantasy managers from Weeks 10 through 18.
But NFL Network's Judy Battista notes Murray and the Cardinals' offense really took off in the final four games of the campaign.
Murray completed 70.3 percent of his passes for 935 yards, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions. The Cardinals led the league in total offense, with 414.3 yards per game over that stretch, and Murray was QB7.
If he can pick up where he left off last year, and if Harrison explodes in his rookie season, MVP consideration -- both in NFL and fantasy terms -- is within the range of Murray's possible outcomes.
Murray can absolutely position himself to deliver the kind of fantasy numbers we saw in 2020 when he finished the year as QB2, scoring an average of 24.2 fantasy points per game.
FantasyLife's Ian Hartitz pointed out that Murray is one of just seven quarterbacks who've averaged more than 23.5 fantasy points per game in a single season over the last decade.
Hartitz added there aren't many players at the position like Murray, with a realistic path to 4,000-plus passing yards and 500-plus rushing yards.
That rushing equity shouldn't be overlooked.
Only five quarterbacks are projected to have more carries this season than Murray's 91 on the Footballguys 2024 Projections.
Four of them -- Allen, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, and Anthony Ricardson will be gone before the end of Round 5. The fifth, Jayden Daniels, is a rookie going in Round 8.
Murray is currently QB7 with a late-6th-round ADP on Underdog. Daniels is cheaper, but Murray has the proven upside . . .
Optimism, But No Timeline For Chubb
According to ESPN.com's Daniel Oyefusi, as the Cleveland Browns held their offseason workout program this spring, running back Nick Chubb could often be spotted looking on as his position mates went through drills.
The four-time Pro Bowl selection has yet to be cleared since sustaining a severe knee injury in Week 2 that ended his 2023 season and required a pair of surgeries.
In early June, in Chubb's first comments since the injury, he said there was no timeline for his return. Browns decision-makers have echoed those comments, only adding that Chubb has been running on land.
But as June wound down, we started hearing more.
Cleveland Plain Dealer reporter Mary Kay Cabot reported that Brad Lester, a running back trainer who worked with Chubb for the first time on Jun. 27, was amazed at where he is only 7 1/2 months after undergoing surgery to repair his ACL, the second of those two surgeries last year.
"I even had to ask him, 'Which knee was it again?'" Lester, who works for about 15 NFL players, told Cabot. "He said 'the left one.' I said, 'That's good that I can't even tell.' He's way ahead of schedule, in my opinion."
Lester acknowledged it's the first time he's ever worked with a player coming back from his second major reconstruction of the same knee. Chubb first tore three ligaments at Georgia and defied the odds by becoming a four-time NFL Pro Bowler and runner-up for the NFL rushing title.
Still, Lester said he wouldn't be surprised if Chubb were available for the opener on Sept. 8 against the Cowboys.
That sounds fantastic.
But this is probably a good time to stress that Lester is a private trainer. He is not affiliated with the Browns and, by his own admission, has not consulted with the team's training staff.
As Cabot explained, the Browns and their medical staff will know when it's safe to put Chubb back out on the field, and they won't rush it.
While there is no official target date for Chubb's return, the expectation is that he will be on the field at some point this year. That's why Chubb and the team reworked his contract, which expires after the 2024 season, this spring to ensure he would remain in Cleveland.
More immediately, when veterans report for training camp on Jul. 23, the Browns will have to decide whether to place Chubb on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list. The designation would prohibit Chubb from practicing and also shed some light on the state of his rehab.
Meanwhile, Chubb is currently RB43 on Underdog. He's going in the 12th round.
That seems reasonable for best ball. Those interested in Chubb for redraft will want to see how it's playing out in training camp before investing valuable draft capital to secure his services.
Beyond that, Cabot states the obvious: An extended absence for Chubb would throw into question the Browns' ability to produce a reliable rushing game after the team saw its numbers dip in his absence last season.
Since entering the league in 2018, Chubb has been one of the most productive running backs in the NFL. He's averaged 5.3 yards per rush in his career, second only to Jamaal Charles for the highest in the Super Bowl Era (min. 1,000 rushes). Chubb is one of six players since 1966 to average five yards per rush or more.
His presence has also aided the Browns' passing game. Per Oyefusi, with Chubb on the field, Cleveland has posted greater yards per attempt, completion percentages, and QBR than when he is off the field.
Last season, with Chubb only playing two games, the Browns finished 12th in rushing yards but were tied for 25th in rushing yards per attempt. The team's 3.9-yard rushing average was the lowest since Chubb's arrival. Cleveland also ranked 16th with a 40 percent success rate.
Offensive line injuries contributed to the drop-off, too.
But Chubb provides a dynamic ability that few players at his position have. Browns running backs not named Chubb averaged 3.8 yards per carry in 2023.
"You don't replace players like that," head coach Kevin Stefanski said. "Obviously, people have to pick up some slack and that type of thing. But he's, again, this is not breaking news, but he's a huge, huge part of what we do."
This offseason, Cleveland opted against re-signing Kareem Hunt, whose 411 yards were second on the team last season. But the team brought in a pair of veteran backs, signing D'Onta Foreman and Nyheim Hines.
At 6-foot and 235 pounds, Foreman presents more of a power element similar to Chubb.
Foreman spent last season with the Bears. He rushed for 425 yards with four touchdowns in nine games and recorded 11 receptions for 77 yards with a touchdown.
A third-round pick in the 2017 draft, Foreman's best season came in 2022 when he rushed for 914 yards and five touchdowns with the Panthers. He became the team's lead back after McCaffrey was traded to the 49ers.
While the sample size is small (eight games), ESPN's Jeremy Fowler pointed out that Foreman has produced 80 or more yards in every game with at least 16 carries since 2022.
The Browns also return Jerome Ford, who led the team with 813 rushing yards in 2023, and Pierre Strong Jr, who had 291 rushing yards.
According to Pro Football Reference, Ford averaged a broken tackle once every 7.8 carries last season, ranking third in the league among qualified runners.
Ford is currently being drafted as RB39 in Round 10 of ongoing Underdog drafts. Foreman is available as RB63 in Round 19.
Whatever the case, Ken Dorsey's hiring as offensive coordinator is expected to result in tweaks to the running game, particularly more rushes out of spread formations.
Much of the attention in Cleveland this offseason has been on quarterback Deshaun Watson's progress in his shoulder rehab as Dorsey installs passing concepts more catered to his skill set.
But with Stefanski at the helm, a solid running game will be a priority no matter who's in the backfield, so taking shots on the various options -- at the right price -- makes sense . . .
Richardson Ready For Training Camp
The Colts say Richardson remains "full go" for training camp despite shoulder soreness, which the second-year player experienced earlier this month.
Richardson underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in 2023 after an AC joint sprain in Week 5.
General manager Chris Ballard said last week that the team is not concerned about Richardson's shoulder fatigue at the end of organized team activities and minicamp.
Richardson was a full participant throughout OTAs and Day 1 of minicamp. He left Day 2 of minicamp early and sat out the final day.
Both Richardson and head coach Shane Steichen insisted the decision to hold him out the final day was precautionary.
Richardson told reporters earlier this month that the soreness was normal during his recovery.
As USA Today's Paul Bretl suggested, if needed, further proof that Richardson's shoulder is in good shape is that he and the wide receiver unit will be getting together during this time off for a "second minicamp," as Richardson put it, and the opportunity to get into a groove heading into training camp, which begins Jul. 24.
Richardson, the fourth pick in the 2023 draft, completed 59.5 percent of his passes for 577 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception over four starts to begin his career.
He also picked up 136 yards and four touchdowns on the ground.
For our purposes, Richardson scored 17-plus fantasy points in his first three games and posted a 27.6-point performance in Week 4. His 22.1 point-per-game average through Week 4 ranked fourth among all fantasy QBs.
Richardson is QB8 on the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings.
He's QB5 on my own Fotballguys Rankings, and that's also his current ADP for Underdog.
Richardson had two top-5 performances in four games last season. It's admittedly risky, but I'm drafting like that's just the tip of the iceberg . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Things have been a little slow, but that's about to change. The Ravens' rookies report for training camp on Jul. 13, and their veterans show up a week later.
It picks up from there. Here's the full schedule:
Less than one month until players begin reporting for training camp … pic.twitter.com/ev5PKq6GMC
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) June 18, 2024
Many of you have been riding with me the last few months, steeping in offseason developments. But if you're just checking back in after an offseason of non-NFL related fun and relaxation, my What's New This Year: Each Team In 15 Seconds will get you up to speed in short order.
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I appreciate your time and look forward to another big-picture look at situations of fantasy interest next week.
See you then.
You can follow Harris on X @footballdiehard. Listen to him weeknights on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show. That's Sirius Channel 210.
