The expected came to pass this week . . . Also, the unexpected.
We all knew Justin Jefferson would get a new contract at some point. And when it came, we figured it would reset the market for wideout salaries.
It did.
The four-year, $140 million deal the Vikings and Jefferson agreed to on Monday makes him the highest-paid receiver in the league and ensures he's a centerpiece of the franchise through the 2028 season.
What we didn't see coming was Christian McCaffrey getting a new deal that similarly tilts the running-back market.
McCaffrey already owned the top running back contract, which he signed with the Panthers in 2020.
After agreeing to a new deal with the 49ers on Tuesday, he's set to earn $62.2 million over the next four years, an average of $15.5 million per season with $24 million in fully guaranteed money.
You can get more detailed looks at both signings on Friday's Top Five Fantasy Headlines video on the Audible YouTube channel.
For now, I'll remind you that while there aren't many running backs at McCaffrey's level, multiple wide receivers, including CeeDee Lamb, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Brandon Aiyuk, and Tyreek Hill, are looking for deals that will come close to (and maybe even exceed) Jefferson's.
Lamb and Chase will absolutely get theirs. The question is, when?
With Jefferson setting the bar at $35 million a year, the Cowboys and Bengals might want to get in on the fun before the price rises even more.
With this week's biggest stories out of the way, it's time to dig a little deeper, starting with our weekly look at an incoming offensive coordinator . . .
Getting Coordinated: Titans
The Tennessee Titans hired Nick Holz, formerly the Jacksonville Jaguars' passing game coordinator, as their offensive coordinator.
Holz will help assemble an offense that properly showcases second-year quarterback Will Levis.
However, the Titans will run an offense brought from Cincinnati by incoming head coach Brian Callahan, who will call the plays -- a job he'll be doing for the first time in his career.
Remember, the Titans' offense ranked 27th or worse in points scored and yards in the last two seasons.
So there's work to do . . .
The Will To Improve
Job 1 for Callahan and Holz is developing Levis, a second-round selection who showed promise at the tail end of Tennessee's 6-11 2023 campaign.
Levis made nine starts as a rookie and finished with 1,808 passing yards, eight touchdowns, and four interceptions.
The Titans went 3-6 with the rookie starting.
There's no doubt the 24-year-old signal-caller has plenty to improve upon. But Callahan sees Levis as a fiery competitor with a live arm aiming for greatness.
"He's got an intensity and an intent every time he walks in the building," Callahan said of Levis. "I think you see that in his play . . . That's not manufactured, that's how he is . . . I think he wants to be a great player and he puts the requisite work in."
Holz started watching Levis when he went to a division rival, and now that he's going to coach him, Holz likes what he sees.
"We talk about quarterbacks," Holz explained, "the three things we're looking for are decision-making, accuracy, and toughness, and we saw all of that."
Now we'll see what he can do with a new supporting cast, starting with . . .
A Revamped Receiving Corps
One thing Levis did last season was build instant chemistry with veteran wideout DeAndre Hopkins, who caught three of the four touchdown passes the QB threw in his first start against Atlanta in Week 8 last year.
But things will change after the Titans added Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd to their receiving corps this offseason.
Heading into his 12th NFL season and playing for his third NFL team, Hopkins claims he hasn't seen as much talent in the wide receiver room as they have in Tennessee. "I think this is one of the best wide receiver groups I've had the chance to play with on paper," he said.
While he likes the newcomers, Hopkins, who turned 32 this week, wants to show that he's still the top receiver on the roster.
"I am always competing," Hopkins said. "Any time we get anyone who is a No.1 receiver, my mindset is to go out and outcompete them, outdo them."
Hopkins had a solid 2023 campaign with 75 catches for 1,057 yards and seven touchdowns, but retaining his WR1 status will be difficult with Ridley coming in on a four-year, $92 million contract.
Ridley, 29, was suspended for the entire 2022 season for violating the league's gambling policy. But after the Jaguars acquired him during the suspension, he returned in 2023 to start all 17 games for the franchise. He caught 76 passes for 1,016 yards with eight touchdowns, leading Jacksonville in yards and TDs.
USA Today NFL editor Doug Farrar likes the addition.
"The Titans needed a legit X Iso receiver, and they absolutely got one in Ridley," Farrar wrote. "Straight-line speed, route precision on crossers and overs, and the ability to beat press right off the line. And he ripped Tennessee's defense to shreds last season."
Holz coached Ridley last year in Jacksonville.
NFL Network's Peter Schrager states that the two had a great relationship, so Ridley has a familiar face and ally in the building.
Our initial view is that Ridley and Hopkins are destined for fantasy WR3 production. Ridley is WR34 on the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings, and Hopkins is WR35; it's obviously a close call.
Will it be the already-established chemistry Hopkins has with Levis? Or the upside the Titans saw in Ridley when they nearly broke the bank to land him?
I tend to follow the money, but with Ridley currently going in the sixth round in Underdog drafts and Hopkins a round later, picking your poison is perfectly fine . . .
Replacing The King
While Derrick Henry led the league in carries in four of his last five seasons in Tennessee, his replacements are likely to split that workload this year.
The Titans, who return Tyjae Spears, added former Cowboy Tony Pollard in free agency.
Pollard recorded 3,621 career rushing yards on 762 carries, an average of 4.8 yards a carry, in his first five NFL seasons, all in Dallas. Pollard has 176 career receptions for 1,319 yards and five touchdowns in his career.
Spears ran for 453 yards and two touchdowns on 100 carries last season as a rookie while catching 52 passes for 385 yards and a touchdown.
Pollard had a career-high 252 carries last season and ran for 1,005 yards and six touchdowns. He also caught a career-high 55 passes for 311 yards.
Spears and Pollard have spent the offseason working out together and pushing each other.
Now, the team has to figure out how to use them.
And fantasy managers must sort it out to some degree before the Titans fully show their hand.
Holz said after Pollard's arrival he views it as a 1A, 1B situation.
Randy Jordan, who took over as running backs coach this offseason, added to that last week.
"Both guys, you don't have to worry about in terms of counting touches in terms of handoffs, running the ball," Jordan explained. "Because they can both catch the ball fairly well out of the backfield. So, in that respect, I am not counting touches in terms of rushes. I'm counting, "Hey, you got 10 rushes, but you also got six catches, and that's a total of 16." And I think they're getting a really good feel for each other on and off the field."
We, as fantasy managers, are definitely worried about the touches. But a split might be best for Pollard, who has been more efficient when sharing.
As Footballguy Zareh Kantzabedian recently noted, in 2022, 45 percent of Pollard's 186 rush attempts turned into runs of 15 or more yards.
Since 2020, only one other back -- Breece Hall -- has hit that mark.
That same season, Pollard's breakaway run rate accounted for 19 percent of his fantasy points.
He scored 26 more fantasy points in 2022 than in his 2023 campaign despite 75 fewer touches, which meant more big plays.
That potential upside might explain Pollard's RB28 ADP in early best balls. Spears is available as RB37.
While it's not ideal in redraft leagues, targeting ambiguous backfields at the right price is a path to best-ball success. So, I'll have plenty of best-ball shares of both with Pollard and Spears available at or below RB3 level investments . . .
Outliers In Nashville
Levis, our QB25, is undoubtedly a fantasy outlier. However, those in two-QB and Superflex leagues might find him an appealing QB3 based on perceived job security.
Boyd will be reunited with Callahan, as both men were with the Bengals before moving to Nashville. A 2016 second-round pick in Cincinnati, had 513 catches for 6,000 yards and 31 touchdowns in 120 regular season games for the team.
Boyd will open the season well ahead of Treylon Burks, Tennessee's first-round pick in 2022, who has a combined 49 catches over his first two seasons as a pro.
Callahan said earlier this offseason that Burks would "play everything," the coach expanded on that last week.
Burks is expected to play special teams.
"He's going to have to contribute," Callahan said after Burks got reps as a gunner. "You know you only get so many hats on game day, and if he's one of those guys on game day, we're going to have to find a place for him."
Burks, 24, has played only 25 snaps on special teams in two seasons, including only one last season.
Meanwhile, tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo has never quite met the hopes of fantasy managers, who have been intrigued by his combination of size, speed, and athleticism.
All three are available well after Round 15 in current best balls . . .
Bijan 2K
Bijan Robinson participated in practice Monday at OTAs for the first time in over a month because of a left ankle injury.
According to ESPN.com's Marc Raimondi, Robinson referred to the injury as a "light sprain."
Falcons coach Raheem Morris has said since the start of OTAs that he expected Robinson back for minicamp this week.
Robinson ended up being ahead of schedule.
He said he feels "close" to 100 percent.
Getting some work in before the team breaks in advance of training camp is also comforting because Robinson is setting the bar high for Year 2 after what NFL.com's Kevin Patra characterized as "a roller-coaster rookie campaign."
The No. 8 overall pick finished with 976 yards rushing and 487 yards receiving, with eight total touchdowns.
Entering his second season, Robinson would like to double -- and then some -- that rushing figure in new coordinator Zac Robinson's offense.
"I want 2,000 yards rushing," Bijan Robinson told SI.com earlier this year. "I know those are big expectations, what we can do as an offense, with all the weapons, our O-line, with Zac being at the helm, it can be something special.
"I think it's going to be one of those special seasons that Atlanta's been waiting for us and all of us as players have been waiting for. So, let's get it."
Adding to the intrigue, Zac Robinson expressed some interesting views on potential usage.
The coach explained: "Bijan's such a talented player. He's going to play running back, first and foremost -- and then anyway we can find creative ways to get him the ball like the Niners do with McCaffrey is exactly right."
Assuming Robinson runs a scheme similar to what he worked with under Sean McVay in Los Angeles, Bijan profiles as a player who should see his stats boosted.
McVay was at his best when relying on one back to motor the offense.
With that in mind, Zac Robinson leaning in on Bijan's game-breaking ability makes sense.
For perspective, nobody posted a better per-game scoring average (from Weeks 1-17) than McCaffrey's 24.7 fantasy points. Kyren Williams, at 21.4 per game, came closest.
They have something in common.
McCaffrey averaged 22.1 opportunities per game last year. Similar usage in 2022 allowed him to average 22.2 points per game following his trade from Carolina, including five outings with at least 25 fantasy points.
Williams was a breakout star last year. He averaged 21.6 touches per game last season and finished third in rushing despite missing five games due to an ankle injury.
He finished the season as RB7.
Volume paved the way for that success, which was even more apparent when Williams went on a league-winning tear upon returning from that injury.
From Weeks 12 through 17, when it mattered most to fantasy managers, Williams' touches increased to 25 a game.
He was fantasy's RB2 over that span.
If Robinson gets that kind of usage this year, there's ample reason to believe he'll make the most of the opportunities.
As SI.com's Daniel Flick noted, Robinson finished the year with 408 yards after contact, No. 14 league-wide, and 15 broken tackles, which put him in a tie for 15th. More interesting, Robinson had more yards after catch (519) than receiving yards (487), which Flick contends illustrates the second-year man's ability with the ball in his hands over the actual play design.
If we want Bijan to hit his current RB3 spot on the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings or his RB2 status on Underdog (where he's going with the sixth-pick overall), he'll need to maximize the volume . . .
Swift In The Right Spot?
The Bears moved quickly to add D'Andre Swift in free agency, signing the running back to a three-year, $24 million contract.
Swift is coming off a career-high 1,049 rushing yards during his one year in Philadelphia following his acquisition in a trade with Detroit. More importantly, he stayed healthy even with the increased workload, playing in 16 regular-season games -- a personal best since entering the league in 2020.
Head coach Matt Eberflus said this week that Chicago focused on Swift because they wanted a player "to be a weapon in the deep part of the field and the short part of the field and be able to take it the distance" in one package.
Swift fit that bill, and the Bears fit what Swift was looking for because "there's just a lot of opportunity out there" to make plays in an offense that revolves around quarterback Caleb Williams.
Not everybody is as confident about the landing spot.
Footballguy Jason Wood noted in the wake of this move, we could have a committee with Swift superseding Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson in terms of redraft potential. Wood added that Swift is unlikely to get a massive workload without being a big part of the passing game. Wood also questioned whether Swift is equipped to handle a feature role on an offense that doesn't have an elite offensive line.
"We can't look at what he did in Philly last year and think it extends straight across," Wood wrote.
It's a fair assessment.
As ESPN.com notes, while his numbers on the ground ballooned, Swift's receiving stats (39 catches, 214 yards) declined, with the passing attack focused on receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
Swift, who has 2,729 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns over four seasons, with 1,412 yards and eight scores through the air, is a capable enough receiver.
However, there will be competition for targets in Chicago, where wide receivers Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze will join Swift and Williams as newcomers. D.J. Moore and Cole Kmet are also on board as the top returning receiving options.
Swift is RB21 on the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings. His current RB22 ADP on Underdog aligns with that.
As one of just six running backs with at least 1,000 rushing yards and 35 receptions last year, Swift isn't without upside in Round 7, but much will depend on how involved Herbert and Johnson are once the season starts.
Even assuming Swift handles the primary role here, the list of backs in timeshares available after he's off the board include Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, Zack Moss, Pollard, Spears, and Raheem Mostert, who is mighty appealing going a full round later than Swift . . .
Feeling Naber-ly
New York Daily News beat writer Pat Leonard advised readers that the team's May 30 practice was a reminder that Daniel Jones, coming off the torn ACL that ended his 2023 season early, is the best quarterback on the roster.
However, Leonard also contends Jones will have a better chance of playing good football if rookie Malik Nabers continues playing the way he did in that Thursday practice.
The rookie receiver was open on virtually every 11-on-11 route he ran.
Turns out, that carried over.
This Thursday, Nabers had two long touchdown receptions in team drills and was "by far the best we've seen from him in OTAs," according to Dan Duggan of The Athletic.
I know you've heard this before, but it bears repeating: Overlook receivers with less-than-ideal quarterbacks or who play in lackluster offenses at your own risk.
The examples are copious.
Moore, with Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent as his triggermen, and Mike Evans, playing with an unexpectedly effective Baker Mayfield, finished as WRs 6 and 7 last season.
In 2022, Amari Cooper was WR11, playing with Jacoby Brissett most of the year.
Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf finished that campaign as WRs 13 and 14, with Geno Smith outperforming expectations.
But an even better example might be Adam Thielen.
The veteran had 103 catches and finished as WR18 despite playing with Bryce Young, who had a historically lousy rookie season after being selected with the top pick of the 2023 NFL Draft.
The youngster threw 11 touchdowns with 10 interceptions, and the Panthers' offense was tied for the lowest-scoring in the NFL.
While the Giants, with Jones and Drew Lock in the top two spots on their depth chart, definitely qualify for less-than-ideal status, expecting Nabers to benefit from better play than Thielen did isn't a massive reach.
But let's also give Nabers his due.
The newcomer has the explosiveness and talent to be mentioned in the same breath as fellow former LSU standouts Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase. Nabers led the SEC in receptions for two consecutive seasons, and his 34 receptions of 20-plus yards in 2023 led the country.
He can play all three receiver spots and is head and shoulders above the rest of the talent on the roster.
Just a reminder that Malik Nabers will be a foundational WR despite the landing spot pic.twitter.com/aHnrbxxA4l https://t.co/P8xbhqPTdr
— Dynasty Dad (@DynastyDadFF) May 30, 2024
Given all that, much like I argued the gap between Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs was too wide last year, I don't think the gap between Nabers and Marvin Harrison Jr. should be as big as it is this year.
Harrison is currently WR9 in early best balls, going with the 13th pick overall. Nabers is WR20, going in the third round as the 29th player off the board.
As I wrote in the Overvalued Players: 9 Wide Receivers to Avoid, "Harrison is a prototypical No. 1 receiver, and his skill set aligns with Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray. But WR9? I'm fine drafting proven players with multi-year histories of success at or near their ceiling; I'm less eager to do that with rookies."
This is more about opportunity cost and the players we'll be passing on to land Harrison than concern about his abilities and landing spot.
But in the end, I'll likely have more Nabers than Harrison . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Be sure you're getting the Footballguys Daily Email Update -- the biggest stories in football, summarized, explained, and delivered straight to your inbox daily.
Also, check out all three Footballguys YouTube channels: The Audible, Footballguys Fantasy Football, and Footballguys Dynasty Football.
I appreciate your time and look forward to another big-picture look at situations of fantasy interest next week.
See you then.
You can follow Harris on X @footballdiehard. Listen to him every Saturday at 3 pm ET on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show. That's Sirius Channel 210.
