Wait. Are we to believe the Vikings considered trading star receiver Justin Jefferson during the NFL Draft?
According to long-time St. Paul Pioneer Press columnist Charley Walters, we are.
"Pssst," Waters wrote. "There was buzz at draft time that the Vikings wanted to move from No. 11 to No. 5, not to pick a quarterback but to get LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers, who was picked No. 6 by the Giants. Had that trade occurred, Jefferson would have been traded, and Nabers would have been the No. 1 receiver."
Subsequently, Profootballtalk.com's Mike Florio acknowledged that he also heard about this story, but it couldn't be sufficiently confirmed to publish.
So there was some ambiguity there.
And they had options.
"He can sign a new contract," Florio wrote. "He can be traded. The Vikings can play the 'you're under contract' game for 2024, kick the can to 2025, apply the franchise tag, and figure it out then."
Turns out they went with the most likely: A new deal.
? ? ?
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) June 3, 2024
The #Vikings and All-Pro WR Justin Jefferson have a new deal to reset the WR market and make him the NFL’s highest-paid non-QB, sources tell me & @TomPelissero.
It’s a mammoth, 4-year extension worth $140M — $35M per year — with $110M guaranteed. ? ? ? ? pic.twitter.com/g8Tk8DbLmj
This seemed like the most likely outcome all along. But we're seeing a clear bifurcation among NFL decision-makers.
Two years ago, three teams chose not to reward their top receivers with big-money contracts. The Titans traded A.J. Brown, the Packers traded receiver Davante Adams, and the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill.
The Eagles, Raiders, and Dolphins were willing to pay the freight necessary to keep all three happy.
Meanwhile, Tennessee used the first-round pick it got for Brown on his replacement, Treylon Burks. The Packers opted for quantity, drafting multiple receivers to replace Adams. The Chiefs also went with a low-cost committee approach that has helped deliver every Lombardi Trophy awarded since Hill was traded.
If we're to draw any inferences from the success -- or lack thereof -- of the teams involved, it's reasonable to say quarterbacks matter to the overall success of a franchise.
The Chiefs and Eagles demonstrate that despite their contrasting approaches.
The good news?
As I've argued from the get-go in this space (and I highlight it again later in this article), great receivers often deliver high-end fantasy production under less-than-ideal circumstances . . .
With that, it's time to get to the good stuff this week, starting with our now-customary look at an incoming offensive coordinator . . .
Getting Coordinated: Buccaneers
Offensive coordinator Dave Canales, a critical member of last year's staff, was hired as the Panthers' head coach. At the time, Baker Mayfield made it known that who the Buccaneers' next offensive coordinator would be would be a factor in a potential return.
Head coach Todd Bowles followed through by hiring Liam Coen to fill that role.
Coen was an attractive candidate for the Buccaneers as he had previously worked in Sean McVay's system. He served as the Los Angeles Rams' assistant wide receivers coach from 2018 to 2019, assistant quarterbacks coach in 2020, and offensive coordinator in 2022, with stints at Kentucky as offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach in 2021 and 2023.
The Buccaneers' offense under Canales in 2023 was derived from Shane Waldron's Seattle Seahawks offense. Waldron had worked with McVay for four seasons before bringing his system to Seattle. After a year of learning a new offense under Canales, the Buccaneers felt it was ideal to keep the offense as close to last year's as possible for continuity.
Adding to the intrigue, Coen was the Rams coordinator when Mayfield played the final five games of the 2022 season for an injury-plagued 5-12 squad in Los Angeles.
Given all that, PewterReport.com's Scott Reynolds told me last weekend he believes the Bucs can "hit the ground running a little bit faster and better than (they did under) Canales," who, despite coming from a similar system, didn't have Coen's play-calling experience.
Mayfield Matters
Coen told reporters earlier this month that while Mayfield is the same guy he was in Los Angeles, the former No. 1 overall pick's situation is different as Tampa Bay's QB1.
"There's not many days, I don't think, Baker wakes up and he doesn't have a chip on his left shoulder," Coen said. "But there is definitely a feeling that this is his team, and it's OK to fail . . . Go out there and let it rip and be yourself every single day no matter what because you're going to be the guy, and we believe in you."
Coen added that Mayfield's "calm confidence" has been coming through during meetings and on the field.
The coach added: "The confidence of throwing the football, I think, has been impressive thus far. We haven't had a ton of balls hit the ground, and he's throwing it with a lot of confidence right now."
Mayfield joined the Bucs last year after splitting 2022 between the Panthers and Rams and went on to have an impressive 2023.
The former first-round draft pick threw for 4,044 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions while helping spark Tampa Bay to a third straight NFC South title and an appearance in the NFC Divisional Round.
Mayfield, who signed a three-year deal to stick with the Buccaneers in March, will have a chance to build on that with Coen as his play-caller and with wide receiver Mike Evans, who signed a new two-year deal with the team, as his top receiving option.
A Solid Foundation
Mayfield's 28 touchdowns during the regular season were the seventh most in the league. Per ESPN.com, his 2.8 touchdown-to-interception ratio tied with San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy for ninth-best in the league. Those 4,044 passing yards were also ninth-best and the most in a single season of Mayfield's career.
He also posted a career-best 64.3 percentage completion percentage and finished the season as fantasy's QB11 in total scoring. His per-game total (16.1 fantasy points per game) was less impressive, but the upside he brought was obvious.
Nonetheless, Mayfield, who has passed for 20,322 yards with 130 touchdowns and 74 interceptions in his career, is going as QB22 in current Underdog and BestBall 10s drafts in anywhere from Rounds 13 through 15.
That Average Draft Position (ADP) mirrors Mayfield's Footballguys 2024 Draft Ranking.
Meanwhile, the Evans-Mayfield pairing resulted in Evans's WR7 finish last season, as the veteran wideout hauled in 76 passes for 1,233 yards and 13 touchdowns.
That touchdown total might be hard to duplicate (although Reynolds thinks a 75-catch, 1,000-yard, 12-TD season is realistic). Still, it's not hard to see Evans outproducing his WR13 Footballguys 2024 Draft Ranking -- which is slightly higher than his WR16 (late second-round) ADP on Underdog.
As Footballguy Sigmund Bloom wrote in his ADP Values For 10 Players That Don't Make Sense article, "Evans is a more palatable second-round pick than many of the wide receivers going immediately ahead of him, whom he finished ahead of last year. That includes Drake London, Chris Olave, Nico Collins, Davante Adams, and both 49ers receivers."
Nuts And Bolts
As the Bucs worked through the early stages of installations, players and coaches noted one shift: an uptick in motion.
Per ESPN, the Bucs' offense used motion before or at the snap on 42.8 percent of its snaps last season, which ranked 25th in the NFL. In contrast, the Dolphins led the NFL in that category, using motions and shifts on 82.8 percent of their offensive snaps. One of the coaching additions the Bucs made to their staff during the offseason is from that renowned Dolphins' system.
Josh Grizzard, Tampa Bay's new pass game coordinator, spent the previous five seasons in Miami, including the last two under Mike McDaniel -- a product of the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree.
The 49ers fell second on that aforementioned motion-usage list behind Miami in 2023, putting players in motion before the snap on 75.4 percent of their plays (the Rams were third at 70.4 percent).
According to Buccaneers.com's Brianna Dix, while the principle of motion is the same, the application by Shanahan, McVay, and McDaniel varies based on team personnel.
In the Bucs' retooled offensive system, Chris Godwin's ability as a blocker opens up the playbook for Coen.
Godwin also offers versatility beyond that.
Bleacher Reports' Doric Sam notes that Godwin shuffled between playing on the outside and in the slot last season. Despite some inconsistencies, he still recorded his third straight 1,000-yard campaign with 83 catches for 1,024 yards and two touchdowns. Still, the team expects him to be even more productive by focusing on a slot role in 2024.
"He's an inside guy by nature. He can play outside. But he can make a living inside doing a bunch of things for us. We plan to let him do a lot of things that he does best," head coach Todd Bowles said. "He was coming off the injury last year, so I don't know if he was at full tilt inside or outside. But he looks a lot quicker, a lot lighter, and he's healthier now."
Godwin's WR41 ADP on Underdog means he's going late Round 5-early Round 6.
The Bucs used a third-round pick in this year's draft to select Washington wide receiver Jalen McMillan, who will compete with Trey Palmer for the team's WR3 role.
Sitting at WR93 on our current rankings, McMillan has work to do before being viewed as fantasy-relevant.
However, as Reynolds reminded me, Dynasty investors should note that if you go back to 2022, Rome Odunze wasn't the leading receiver in Washington.
McMillan had more catches and touchdowns than Odunze (who led the team in receiving yards). A knee injury last year limited McMillan to four games and allowed Ja'Lynn Polk to emerge. But when McMillan returned, he was a 100-yard receiver in the Championship game.
Tight end Cade Otton could outperform expectations, but his TE22 ranking will relegate him to waiver-wire watchlist fodder when the season opens . . .
Are We Worried About White?
As noted in a previous Fantasy Notebook, the Buccaneers have had the league's worst rushing attack over the last two seasons (82.9 yards per game).
Still, Rachaad White finished as fantasy's RB4 last season after ranking in the top ten in carries (White's 272 carries tied him with Christian McCaffrey for the second-most in the league behind only Derrick Henry), targets (ninth), and red-zone touches (ninth).
With 64 catches, White's 336 total touches were also second-most in the NFL behind only McCaffrey's 339.
Even though White's role is well-defined, his post-draft ADP reflects possible concern about his workload after the team added rookie Bucky Irving in the fourth round of April's Draft.
White, who we rank as RB12, is being drafted as RB14 on Underdog.
I'm skeptical that Irving will reduce the workload sufficiently to keep White from being an excellent value as RB2 in Round 5.
Reynolds agreed. He expects a 75-25 split, but he also contends White can be more efficient even with fewer touches.
"He's got a little bit too much of that Le'Veon Bell patience behind the line scrimmaging, waiting for the hole to open up," Reynolds said of White. "Bell could do that and get away with it because he is a special player.
"With White, he just has to get the ball and hit the hole at full speed . . ."
Bottom Line For Bucs
According to Reynolds, the Buccaneers have the scheme, play-caller, and personnel to take a step forward this year. "They have the firepower to get this team from 21 points per game last year to 24 points per game this year," he added . . .
Collins Gets Alpha Money In Houston
On Tuesday, the Texans and wide receiver Nico Collins agreed to a three-year, $72 million extension that includes $52 million guaranteed.
Collins would have become an unrestricted free agent after this season. Instead, he became one of the 10 highest-paid receivers in the NFL.
The 25-year-old is coming off a career-best 2023 season in which he had 80 receptions (ranked 23rd in the NFL) for 1,297 yards (ranked 8th) and eight touchdowns (tied for 8th) in 15 games.
The extension came after Houston bolstered its receiving room by trading for Buffalo's Stefon Diggs in March.
Diggs will be a free agent in 2025 after the Texans voided the final three years on his contract, increasing his 2024 base salary to $22.5 million.
So extending Collins gives the Texans two receivers they view as dynamic playmakers under contract beyond this year: Tank Dell and Collins.
Even before the Texans validated it with this investment, Collins was our top fantasy wideout in Houston.
He's WR20 on the Footballguys 2024 Draft Rankings. Diggs is WR26, and Dell is our WR27.
In the real world, Underdog ADP has Collins at WR15, Diggs at WR18, and Dell at WR26.
Beyond that, Houston Chronicle beat writer Jon Alexander told me last weekend he envisions the same pecking order outlined above for this receiving corps in 2024.
Footballguy Jagger May was already all in on Collins and this news only added to his confidence.
I keep saying that Nico Collins is probably the WR to own in Houston.
— Jagger May (@FantasyBluechip) May 28, 2024
The money makes that take look better. https://t.co/h4NouLVMLg
Still, I'm more likely to buy the cheaper piece.
2023 third-rounder Dell finished his rookie season with just over 700 yards but was on pace for 1,200 yards before suffering a broken leg in early December.
The second-year man is healthy and participated in Texans OTAs after he was shot at a recent private event in Florida.
The more significant issue is that we're all betting on C.J. Stroud to build on his remarkable 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign.
We think Stroud will continue to be great -- our QB6 ranking reflects that -- but mitigating any concerns about a possible step back by investing in players the second-year man has already established chemistry with and demonstrated an affinity for working with makes sense to me . . .
What About Stroud?
PFT's Myles Simmons contends Stroud is poised to take a significant step forward in his development. The reasoning is simple: He still has offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik and quarterbacks coach Jerrod Johnson surrounding him on Houston's staff.
Slowik told reporters this week that, generally speaking, the second season for a quarterback "is a really big year."
Slowik further explained, "Last year, there was a lot going on. You have to hit fundamentals, you have to hit verbiage, you have to hit play calls, you have to hit productions, you have to hit all this stuff. You hit fundamentals to a degree, but you can only do so much.
"Now we really get to dive into the fundamentals of this is what we do and how we play and what makes him great, and really fit that and grow that within our offense. That really to me has been -- just through Phase II [and] in OTAs so far, he is on board and all in. He is picking up right where he left off."
That's great news for fantasy managers investing fifth-round draft capital to land Stroud on Underdog and those interested in Collins, Diggs, and Dell.
In 15 games last season, Stroud completed 64 percent of his passes for 4,108 yards with 23 touchdowns and five interceptions . . .
Waddle Grabs His Bag
The Dolphins locked up Jaylen Waddle with a long-term deal on Thursday. The fourth-year receiver agreed to a three-year extension that allows him to join Collins as one of the league's highest-paid receivers and keep him tied to the organization through 2028.
Per PFT, the initial numbers indicate Waddle's deal is worth $84 million with $76 million guaranteed.
Selected at No. 6 overall in 2021, Waddle caught 104 passes for 1,015 yards with six touchdowns as a rookie.
However, with head coach Mike McDaniel's arrival in 2022, he nearly doubled his yards per reception, catching 75 passes for 1,356 yards with eight TDs.
That season, he led the league with 18.1 yards per catch.
He had 72 catches for 1,014 yards and four touchdowns last season, bringing his three-year totals to 251 catches, 3,385 yards, and 18 touchdowns.
Meanwhile, Waddle, who finished as WR7 and WR32 the last two seasons, is being drafted as WR17 on Underdog.
Do I feel great about that? After last year's finish, not really.
But it's not so much about Waddle -- who is fairly priced even as he continues to play second-fiddle to Tyreek Hill this year.
In fact, Late-Round Fantasy's JJ Zachariason made a great point when he wrote in his newsletter this week: "Waddle not only is being drafted around his projection, but he has contingent upside as well. What happens if Hill misses time? All of a sudden, that 23 percent target share for Waddle has a shot to turn into a 30 percent one."
Zachariason is not wrong.
But for me, it's more about the players around Waddle.
I like them better.
As long as Evans is available at WR16 -- and players like D.J. Moore, DeVonta Smith, and Michael Pittman Jr are going after him, Waddle isn't going to find his way to the top of my queue very often . . .
Watson Regaining His Balance
According to ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky, for the first time since he came into the league as a highly touted speed receiver in 2022, Christian Watson finally understands why recurring hamstring injuries have slowed him down.
More importantly, he now knows how to fix it.
While it's still a work in progress, the key for Watson, he discovered, is symmetry.
That was among the things the former second-round pick learned during eight hours of testing this offseason. Those tests showed a muscle imbalance in Watson's legs, likely contributing to his problems.
Coach Matt LaFleur told reporters last week that the Packers would feel pretty good about Watson's hamstrings holding up for the season if he could make it through training camp without another such injury.
While the Packers may not have a true WR1, they're loaded with young talent at the position, including Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Malik Heath, Bo Melton, and others.
None, however, have shown Watson's big-play potential.
With an average of 15.0 yards per catch over his first two seasons, only 13 receivers with at least 100 targets over that span have a higher yards per catch average.
We've had glimpses of how high the ceiling might be here.
Watson scored four touchdowns from Week 11 to 13 last year. You might also remember that four-game, seven-touchdown stretch he delivered as a rookie in 2022.
With 69 catches for 1,033 yards and 12 touchdowns in 23 games, Watson, who at WR47 is just one spot ahead of totally unproven Detroit wideout Jamison Williams on Undergod, is a reasonably priced lottery ticket as your WR4 . . .
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook. Be sure to look out for your Footballguys Daily Email Update. Bloom, Cecil Lammey, and I compile, summarize, and explain the biggest stories in football and deliver them straight to your inbox every single day.
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Get the content you want from people you know and trust.
I appreciate your time and look forward to another big-picture look at situations of fantasy interest next week.
See you then.
You can follow Harris on X @footballdiehard. Listen to him every Saturday at 3 pm ET on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio's The Football Diehards show. That's Sirius Channel 210.
