What if I told you we're all going to overpay for a rookie in our fantasy drafts?
What if we're already doing it?
No, I'm not talking about Marvin Harrison Jr., although his WR9 Average Draft Position (ADP) in current Underdog drafts seems aggressive.
The players that worry me more are those with still-undefined roles in landing spots so ideal we'll overlook all the potential negatives.
For example . . . The selection of Xavier Worthy in the first round of last month's NFL Draft has all of us salivating at the possibility Kansas City's offense has finally replaced an element vacated two years ago by Tyreek Hill.
I get the positive buzz.
As NFL.com reminded us this week, the Chiefs haven't been as aggressive going downfield -- especially last season -- without Hill. In 2023, Patrick Mahomes II's average depth of target was a career-low 7.2 yards. In four years as a starter with Hill available, Mahomes' average depth of target was 9 yards. It peaked at 9.9 in 2018.
Bringing in Worthy, with his blistering 4.21 speed, to work alongside another deep threat in free-agent addition Marquise Brown, who also boasts sub-4.3 speed, should help Mahomes reclaim some of that lost aDOT.
The infusion of speed should also help free up Travis Kelce.
Mahomes and Kelce are available at slight discounts from previous seasons in early best balls after falling short of expectations last year.
But what about that receiving corps?
If you're doing your best-ball drafts on Underdog right now, you'll pay more for Worthy, currently WR34 with a late fourth-round Average Draft Position (ADP), than Hollywood Brown, who is going in the middle of Round 5 as WR35. Rashee Rice, facing uncertainty due to off-field issues, is now going as WR40 early in Round 6.
It's been a quick ascent for Worthy.
While it hasn't reached the same level, I remember the last Chiefs rookie who got an ADP rocket ride to the top of the ranks.
In 2020, Clyde Edwards-Helaire's ADP went as high as sixth overall. He finished the year as RB22.
Worthy's price isn't outrageous (and not far off his WR42 spot on the FootballGuys Draft Rankings). But if Rice's growing off-field issues persist, the prices for Worthy and Brown could continue rising.
Be careful not to chase them up too far, too fast . . .
With the preliminaries out of the way, let's get to the good stuff. As we'll continue to do until we've hit all of them, the fun starts with a look at an incoming offensive coordinator . . .
Getting Coordinated: The Steelers
The Steelers hired former Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith as their next offensive coordinator on Jan. 31.
With the organization anxious to get its first playoff win since 2016, the Smith hire is one of Mike Tomlin's most pivotal moves in his 17-season tenure.
The Falcons fired Smith after he compiled a 21-30 record in three consecutive 7-10 seasons without a playoff berth. Before his stint in Atlanta, Smith served as the Titans' offensive coordinator from 2019-20.
According to ESPN.com's Brooke Pryor, Smith checked all the boxes Tomlin listed at his end-of-season news conference:
- External hire.
- Previous offensive coordinator experience.
- A track record that suggests he can execute an offensive philosophy with the talent already on the Steelers' roster.
Before the hiring, Steelers owner Art Rooney II expressed a desire to return to a ground attack and to improve the quality of quarterback play.
"I think we have two high-performing running backs, Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, and they, along with an improving offensive line, can be the foundation of success going forward," Rooney II said.
He's Not Wrong
The Steelers rushed for 2,010 yards over the 2023 regular season, including a surge of two 100-yard rushing games by Harris in the last two regular season contests.
While fantasy managers had issues with Smith's handling of personnel in Atlanta (yes, I'm acknowledging you Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts managers), you're unlikely to find anybody arguing he isn't an upgrade over his predecessor in Pittsburgh, Matt Canada.
In addition, Pryor contends Smith's body of work shows he's well-positioned to utilize a dominant running back tandem, especially if paired with an above-average offensive line and serviceable quarterback.
To that end, the Steelers have put some work into their line.
The team selected Washington tackle Troy Fautanu with its 2024 first-round pick and also selected center Zach Frazier and guard Mason McCormick in the draft. They join tackle Broderick Jones, a 2023 first-rounder, and guards Nate Herbig and Isaac Seumalo, who signed as free agents last offseason as the latest pieces for Pittsburgh's revamped unit.
Steelers.com's Dale Lolley nailed it when he wrote: "The message is loud and clear. If you play the Steelers, you'd better be prepared to stop the run."
Keeping It Grounded
In five seasons as an offensive play-caller, Smith's offenses in Atlanta and Tennessee consistently had some of the league's best rushing attacks.
Smith's teams ranked second once and third twice in total rushing yards.
Anchored by one of the NFL's premier running backs, Derrick Henry, the Titans averaged 153.5 rushing yards per game and 5.1 rushing yards per carry in Smith's first two seasons, second only to the Baltimore Ravens in those two years.
Smith also found success on the ground without Henry as 2022 Falcons fifth-round pick Tyler Allgeier rushed for 1,035 yards in a breakout rookie season. That year, Smith's Falcons ranked third in rushing yards and 10th in rushing touchdowns.
In 2023, the Falcons ranked ninth in rushing yards per game and 15th in rushing touchdowns. The Steelers, meanwhile, ranked 13th in rushing yards and 11th in rushing touchdowns in 2023 . . .
Sorting Out The Rotation
Rooney is keen on the Harris-Warren tandem. "I really feel good about having a two-headed monster, if you will, at running back," the owner said in March.
Still, the Steelers declined Harris' fifth-year option for the 2025 season this past week, setting the former first-round pick up for potential free agency next year.
Harris has been productive, delivering three 1,000-yard performances in three NFL campaigns. He's also been durable, playing in all 51 regular-season games over that span.
That said, the Steelers backed off Harris' workload last year, giving more carries to Warren, who is also a better pass-catching threat out of the backfield. With Warren on the field more often, Harris played his fewest snaps (53 percent) in 2023.
Still, Harris had also had a career-best 4.1 yards per carry and eight rushing touchdowns.
Bigger picture . . . Three straight seasons with 250-plus carries, at least eight TDs, zero games missed, and better than 10 fantasy points per game over that span make Harris a super-reliable albeit less-exciting option.
So, how should we approach this situation as fantasy investors?
Well, Harris' price began to fall when news broke that the Steelers were declining his option.
It's not slipping dramatically, but it's declining -- two spots in the first two days. At the same time, Warren is rising slightly.
Harris is RB23 on Underdog, available with the 85th pick. Compare his early seventh-round ADP with Warren, who is RB28 going at the tail end of that same round.
You can pick your poison here.
The direction you take might depend on how you're building your roster.
If you took risks earlier in your draft, Harris is likely to deliver steadier production at cost while those who played it safe might benefit from Warren's affordable upside . . .
Course Correction At QB
One area that isn't quite as clear is Smith's impact on the quarterback, which Tomlin previously said was a "significant" component in the coordinator search.
"This game is quarterback-driven, offenses are quarterback-driven," Tomlin said, "and so their expertise in that area is a significant component of the search from my perspective."
Before taking over in Atlanta, Smith oversaw two of quarterback Ryan Tannehill's best seasons. With weapons like wide receiver A.J. Brown and tight end Jonnu Smith, Tannehill threw for 55 touchdowns to 13 interceptions in the two years under Smith.
He was part of an offense that averaged 26.4 points per game and 379.9 yards per game, good for sixth and seventh in the league, respectively.
Smith didn't have the same luck with his quarterbacks in Atlanta.
That might have had as much to do with the on-field personnel as it did with the coaching.
The question now is whether the Steelers have, as suggested above, the serviceable quarterback Smith needs after making wholesale changes at the position.
They dealt Kenny Pickett to the Eagles, signed Russell Wilson, and traded for Justin Fields.
Tomlin has said that Wilson is in "pole position" to line up as Pittsburgh's starting quarterback when the season begins.
Fantasy managers drafting either Wilson (our QB29) or Fields (QB32) are taking their chances at this point -- even if we gain certainty that one will win and retain the job because . . .
The Passing Concerns Go Beyond QB
After shipping wideout Diontae Johnson to Carolina, the Steelers' hopes of making a splash trade to replace him have faded, leaving George Pickens as their top option.
According to USA Today's Allison Koehler, that's a concern for several reasons, not the least of which is Pickens' attitude.
More problematic in Koehler's view, however, Pickens hasn't proven anything.
While he improved all his rookie marks from 2022 to 2023, recording his first 1,000-yard season on 63 receptions (up from 52 catches and 801 yards), he's far from a finished product.
Fortunately for us, taking a chance on Pickens isn't cost-prohibitive. The third-year man's ADP is WR28 on Underdog, which aligns with his WR28 spot on our Draft Rankings.
Koehler added if Pickens doesn't make the leap from being a good receiver who can make acrobatic catches to a top playmaker with an expanded route tree, the Steelers don't have much to fall back on at the position.
Although they've added a mix of veteran receivers in free agency, none would stand out as a number two receiver.
Van Jefferson was the Rams' number two receiver in 2021 but hasn't come close to that season's 50-catch output since. Scotty Miller and Quez Watkins have speed but no track record of consistent on-field production.
Rookie pass-catcher Roman Wilson could be a factor because his versatility as a receiver and a blocker will help with the run game. Calvin Austin III is the other receiver to watch during training camp and the preseason, but fantasy managers shouldn't dig too deep here . . .
Three-Receiver Sets Going By The Wayside?
For the better part of the past decade, the Steelers have been one of the heaviest 11-personnel teams in the league, using three wide receivers, one tight end, and one running back as their primary package.
Last year, they lined up for 73.1 percent of their snaps in that package.
Atlanta used 11 personnel 15 percent of the time in 2023, the lowest percentage in the NFL.
Instead, the Falcons were among the top 10 in the NFL in using two- and three-tight end packages.
In fact, from 2021 to 2023, the Falcons ran the most plays with multiple tight ends on the field.
The Steelers have Pat Freiermuth, 2023 draft pick Darnell Washington, and former Falcon and Titan MyCole Pruitt at the position.
Though Smith was inconsistent in using Pitts after his 1,000-yard rookie season, his scheme could return Freiermuth, currently our TE16, to fantasy relevance . . .
A Big Ask
The Steelers have a championship-caliber defense and talented offensive players. It's up to Smith to bring them together and elevate the quarterback's play in a way his predecessor couldn't.
Given all that, fantasy managers would be wise to let the experiment play out before making significant investments in pieces beyond Harris and Warren . . .
Rams Reverting To Old Ways?
When the Rams won the Super Bowl three seasons ago, they used a stable of running backs that included Cam Akers, Darrell Henderson Jr., and Sony Michel.
According to Eric Williams of FOXSports, head coach Sean McVay appears to be taking a similar approach this season, selecting Michigan product Blake Corum in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft.
At 5-8 and 205 pounds, Corum was a true workhorse back, helping to lead Michigan to the national championship last season.
McVay sees similarities in the running styles of Corum and current Rams bell-cow and fantasy powerhouse Kyren Williams.
"I think there's a lot of similarities," McVay said. "Kyren will put Blake under his arm and be a great mentor."
Hopefully, mentoring will be the extent of it.
Williams was a breakout star last year. He averaged 21.6 touches per game last season and finished third in rushing despite missing five games due to an ankle injury.
He finished the season as RB7.
Volume paved the way for that success, something even more apparent when Williams went on a league-winning tear upon returning from that injury.
From Weeks 12 through 17, when it mattered most to fantasy managers, Williams' touches increased to 25 a game. He was fantasy's RB2 over that span.
So, fantasy managers must ask whether Corum could emerge as a limiting factor for Williams.
The team needed depth, but ESPN's Sarah Barshop contends the Day 2 draft capital expended shows how important the Rams viewed it.
You'll find Williams, currently RB8 on the Footballguys Draft Rankings, going off as RB7 on Underdog and RB5 on BestBall 10s.
That price began dipping with the addition of Corum.
Williams' Average Draft Position went from 13th overall pre-draft on Underdog to 20th overall post-draft.
If that trend continues, leverage it by leaning into it . . .
A Timeshare In Tampa Bay?
The Buccaneers have fielded the league's worst rushing attack over the last two seasons (82.9 yards per game), and PewterReport.com advised us this week that was one of the biggest takeaways from the offensive coaches speaking on Monday.
Incoming offensive coordinator Liam Coen is tasked with building the framework for the rushing attack to be successful. But it will come down to personnel.
Right now, Rachaad White is the clear lead back. But fourth-round pick Bucky Irving is on the radar.
Coen and running backs coach Skip Peete spoke highly of how the 5-9, 192-pound Irving can impact a game -- if he earns a role behind White, who finished last season as fantasy's RB4.
Not surprisingly, volume was a significant factor in that finish.
White's 272 carries tied him with Christian McCaffrey for the second-most in the league behind only Derrick Henry.
With 64 catches, White's 336 total touches were also second-most in the NFL behind only McCaffrey's 339.
Even though White's role is well-defined, his post-draft ADP reflects possible concern about his workload.
He is currently being drafted as RB14 on Underdog. Since the draft, his average draft position has fallen from 48th overall to 52.
White is a value in that price range, even assuming a slightly diminished workload. Don't shy away . . .
Fantasy Notebook Rookie QB Watch
In Chicago . . . There will be no manufactured quarterback competition for the Bears. As the team kicked off their rookie minicamp Friday, head coach Matt Eberflus wasted no time naming Caleb Williams as the team's starting quarterback.
"No conversation," Eberflus said. "He's the starter."
It's not a surprise. Tyson Bagent and Brett Rypien are the other options.
While Eberflus said the Bears have several benchmarks they expect Williams to reach over the next few months ahead of training camp, it seems the most significant obstacle has already been overcome . . .
In Washington . . . The Commanders made it clear they were staking their future on Jayden Daniels when they selected him as the second overall pick in the draft last month. But there's still some question about when the future will meet the present.
When asked during a recent podcast appearance if he expects to be the team's starter in Week 1, Daniels smartly said he's "confident in my abilities" while acknowledging the decision was not his to make.
Still, as Profootballtalk.com's Josh Alper suggested, it's hard to imagine Marcus Mariota showing the Commanders enough to justify keeping Daniels on the bench. Especially when the newcomer's ascension to the No. 1 job represents the start of what the current management hopes will be a brighter era of football in Washington.
That doesn't mean Daniels is close to a finished product, but it's fair to believe the Commanders will let him sort that out on the field . . .
In New England . . . Patriots coach Jerod Mayo has stated Drake Maye would not automatically be the Day 1 starter. Instead, Maye will compete with QB Jacoby Brissett for the starting job during training camp.
Footballguy Cecil Lammey made the case this week that while Maye could start immediately, he'd be better served getting time to develop.
During the pre-draft process, the No. 3 overall pick was criticized for his inconsistent footwork in college, occasionally leading to erratic play. Improving his mechanics will be a focal point of the offseason work with offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt.
Mayo acknowledges that.
"He has a lot to work on, but I have no doubt that he'll put the time in," Mayo said Saturday. "He was here all night trying to get on the same page as everyone else."
Expecting Brissett to open the regular season under center is reasonable; expecting him to hold the job all season seems less so . . .
In Minnesota . . . J.J. McCarthy made it look easy during his first practice with the Vikings. CBS Sports' Bryan DeArdo reports the rookie quarterback was extremely accurate while showing the poise of a much older passer during the first day of rookie minicamp.
While it wasn't perfect (he threw an interception during 7-on-7 drills), McCarthy looked the part of a 10th overall pick.
The biggest takeaway from McCarthy's first practice? His ease going through the Vikings' plays, a byproduct of McCarthy's preparation since being drafted by Minnesota.
The Vikings plan to develop McCarthy physically and mentally so that he is as ready as possible for the start of the regular season.
If he's not, Sam Darnold is standing by . . .
In Denver . . . Bo Nix became the first of the six first-round quarterbacks to sign his rookie deal.
The 12th overall pick out of Oregon is participating in this weekend's rookie minicamp as he begins working toward the starting job. He is competing with veterans Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson in what probably isn't much of a competition.
In discussing the situation on The Audible this week, Lammey and Sigmund Bloom made the case that Nix will benefit greatly from working under Sean Payton.
Nix's success will be critical for all involved.
As Bloom put it, "I think the big story here is that the fate of the Broncos is the fate of Sean Payton."
The Final Word
That's it for this week's Fantasy Notebook.
If you want to start getting a better handle on where these rookie quarterbacks -- and the rest of the rookie class -- fit into your drafts, check out Bloom's Rookie Big Boards (for single-quarterback and Superflex leagues) and Chad Parsons' NFL Draft Reactions, including 10 Notable QB Situations.
Also, check out all three YouTube channels: Footballguys The Audible (where you'll find my weekly Top-Five Fantasy Headlines every Friday) and our newest channels, Footballguys Fantasy Football and Footballguys Dynasty Football.
Get the content you want from people you know and trust.
I appreciate your time and look forward to next week when we'll examine more situations of fantasy interest.
See you then. In the meantime, you can follow me on X @footballdiehard.
