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Fantasy Info Sheet: Week 3

Jagger May's Fantasy Info Sheet: Week 3
By Jagger May, September 21, 2024

Jagger May breaks down the weekend slate with fantasy points, injury updates, and matchups from every game.

Fantasy Info Sheet: Week 3
Photo: USA Today Sports

Broncos +215 @ Buccaneers -265

Sunday, 1:00 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 41 Spread: 6

Fantasy Game Points

The one thing that's actually working in Denver is Patrick Surtain II, who has been an absolute shutdown shadow corner. The real question is whether he's Chris Godwin or Mike Evans's shadow. My vote is the latter, and I'd put my money on it being business as usual for the Slot God. Baker should still be comfortably started, and the Buccaneers RBs have a favorable matchup. So if Rachaad White does something, I still might sell high if possible with Bucky Irving. However, the team hasn't seemed to care about White's poor efficiency with his snap share firmly at 71%

Don't even bother with the Broncos until we see something.

Key Starts

Key Sits

  • Every single Bronco

Boom Bust Flex

Injury Report

Healthy

OUT

Doubtful

Questionable

Chargers +130 @ Steelers -155 

Sunday, 1 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 34.5 Spread: 3

Fantasy Game Points

Expect every Steelers matchup that isn't against a Top 5 offense on the other side of the field to have less than 40 expected point. But maybe Justin Fields and George Pickens can start to connect on all those air yards sooner rather than later.

The Steelers clearly aren't in a hurry to bring back Russell Wilson and I'm not convinced he gets his job back if the box score can reflect the tape. I'm rolling out Fields one more week even despite a “tough” matchup. The Chargers have played soft teams (Raiders, Panthers) that have allowed them to control time of possession on the ground, while Bryce Young has helped their defensive passing totals.

This might be the week JK Dobbins's efficiency takes a hit as the Steelers are a Top 10 tough rushing matchup according to Devin Knotts. I have zero interest in starting another Chargers player since the passing offense has been low volume in even gamescripts. Even despite Quentin Johnston's pop.

  • The Steelers and Chargers have the second and third-lowest pass rates in the NFL, respectively.

  • Chargers LT Joe Alt has a major test against T.J. Watt who has lined up against the LT 93% of snaps.

Key Sits

Injury Report

Healthy

OUT

  • NA

Doubtful

Questionable

Giants +230 @ Browns -285

Sunday, 1 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 38 Spread: 6.5

Fantasy Game Points

Malik Nabers finally broke out after the panic of Week 1 however, a tough matchup against the Browns who have the 9th-best pressure rates against QBs and 10th in passing yards per play. You're starting Malik Nabers, but don't be surprised to see the team struggle if Myles Garrett is a problem. However, Nabers is a big-play merchant and the Cleveland secondary has holes.

The Browns have an easy rushing matchup but don't underestimate the Giants passing defense who are top 10 in pressure rate. I feel much more bullish on the ugly RB rotation of Ford and Foreman than the passing offense.

Shaky Start

Boom Bust Flex

Injury Report

Healthy

OUT

Doubtful

  • NA

Questionable

Eagles +124 @ Saints -148

Sunday, 1 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 49.5 Spread: 3

Fantasy Game Points

How about them Saints, right? Klint Kubiak will be the newest “Kyle Shanahan Coaching Tree” darling to be offered the keys to a castle after fixing the Saints' offense. I don't think this is a fluke considering the talent the Saints had, including Carr. They just needed a scheme that included more than slants and low depth of target passes to Kamara. Moreover, the Eagles are still struggling against the passing game and Vegas knows that with a generous 49.5 expected points with the Saints favored by 2.5 points. 

The Eagles are still a disappointment from a wins perspective, but still producing for fantasy managers. However, the Saints have always had a domineering defense and the offense has only been a bigger boost. We're firing all assets regardless of matchup, but don't panic over an Eagles' dip in production

  • Derek Carr is Top 2 in every major efficiency category including EPA, YPA, and Completions Percentage Over Expected.
  • Rashid Shaheed is WR2 in Yards Per Reception 4th in Air Yards Per Target.
  • Alvin Kamara is second in rushing EPA despite seeing the 4th highest stacked box rate.
  • Saquon Barkley is 5th in YAC

Key Start

  • Everyone

Injury Report

Healthy

  • Taliese Fuaga LT, Saints

OUT

Doubtful

  • NA

Questionable

Texans -122 @ Vikings +102

Sunday, 1 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 46 Spread: 1.5

Fantasy Game Points

Sam Darnold looks like 2024's Geno Smith and I'm here for it. It's hard to look at Adam Gase and the current state of the Panthers and think “Yeah, Sam Darnold was 100% of the problem.” But I'll digress and end the rant by saying that if Justin Jefferson is healthy, you play him. If Addison is healthy (not this game) you're playing him. However, the Texans have the second-best pressure rate in the NFL going against a decent offensive line. Vegas expects modest points in a game with two high-powered offenses, so I'm trusting my studs. 

The Texans have two banged-up RBs, so Cam Akers is looking like a quality spot start

  • The Vikings have the 4th highest Blitz percentage.
  • C.J. Stroud has the 3rd best completion percentage against blitzes

Key Starts

Boom Bust Flex

Injury Report

Healthy

OUT

Doubtful

Questionable

Packers +124 @ Titans -148

Sunday, 1 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 38.5 Spread: 3

Fantasy Game Points

Jordan Love seems to be on track to play on Sunday.

This is an obvious boost to the Packers against a weak Titans team. This is why I'll focus these blurbs on them. You have to sit the entire passing game until further notice. The Titans still have the worst pressure rate in the league even after a TNF game where the Patriots let Jacoby Brissett act as a sacrificial lamb. Will Levis is getting justifiably chewed out on the sideline after making absolutely terrible decisions. I'll admit that I bought into Levis as a player, but the offensive line and slow start are giving me reasons to regret that decision. 

  • Will Levis has the 4th worst EPA, but 4th highest Completions Over Expected
  • Tony Pollard is dominating the snap share with back-to-back snap percentages of 61 and 67%
  • Romeo Doubs leads all Packers WRs in snaps by a wide margin
  • DeAndre Hopkins only has 3 targets this season.

Key Start

Key Sits

  • The Titans Passing Offense

Boom Bust Flex

Injury Report

Healthy

OUT

Doubtful

  • NA

Questionable

Bears  +108 @ Colts -112

Sunday, 1 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 43.5 Spread: 1

Fantasy Game Points

We have to take the good with the bad with Anthony Richardson at this stage, and the last game was bad. I don't think it'll be better against the Bears' top 5 defense in EPA per play and pressure rate. Moreover, Michael Pittman Jr is struggling with an injury all while just struggling in general and is featured in Dave Kluge's ‘3 Up, 3 Down' article. He's not one of the 3 up.

Meanwhile, Caleb Williams and the Bears have had a rough start, but have a juicy matchup against a soft and buttery Colts defense allowing the second most yards to offenses. I have confidence we see a bit more from the highly anticipated new-look Bears this week.

  • The Colts are giving up the 5th most rushing yards per play
  • Michael Pittman Jr has the 9th worst Catch %.

Key Start

Key Sit

Boom or Bust Flex

Injury Report

Healthy

OUT

Doubtful

  • NA

Questionable

Panthers +205 @ Raiders -250

Sunday, 2:05 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 40 Spread: 6

Fantasy Game Points

It's a new QB era in the Panthers and I still feel terrible for the folks forced to watch this game due to regional television restrictions. 

The Panthers have a terrible defense which should mean good things for Davante Adams, Brock Bowers, and whatever Raiders RB falls into the endzone. The biggest question is if Andy Dalton means good things for the Panthers. I'd spot-start Dalton and Diontae Johnson in desperate Superflex situations. Sigmund Bloom currently has Dalton listed as one of his QB sleepers.

Key Start

Boom Bust Flex

Injury Report

Healthy

  • NA

OUT

  • NA

Doubtful

  • NA

Questionable

Dolphins +185 @ Seahawks -225

Sunday, 2:05 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 42 Spread: 4.5

Fantasy Game Points

Tua Tagovailoa is very down, but probably not out.

Tua's replacement is Skylar Thompson, a player that the coaching staff truly believes in but leaves a lot to be desired as an individual start. I'm willing to trust Mike McDaniel and the talented pieces enough to start them with the confidence that they'll win with game-breaking speed.

The Seahawks look as good as they ever have in Ryan Grubbs' new scheme and Miami presents a juicy matchup. Jalen Ramsay looks to be cooked as the kids say, and DK Metcalf has learned how to finesse all that size and speed. Furthermore, we seem to have seen a Jaxon Smith-Njigba breakout. I'm starting every Seahawk, even Charbonnet, in this one.

  • Miami's defense is allowing the 4th highest EPA per pass.
  • Geno Smith is ranked 8th in QB rating and 4th in completion percentage
  • Zach Charbonnet has the 3rd worst YPC at 2.3 

Key Start

Spot Start

Boom Bust Flex

Injury Report

Healthy

OUT

Doubtful

Questionable

49ers -290 @ Rams +235

Sunday, 2:25 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 43 Spread: 6.5

Fantasy Game Points

This could be the Brandon Aiyuk comeback game we've expected. 

The Rams already suffered major losses on defense during the offseason, but couple that with injuries on both sides of the ball, and this team's season might be over before it began. Stafford has lost both of his top targets and half of his offensive line, so I wouldn't be in a hurry to trot out Jordan Whittington or Tyler Johnson unless you're desperate. However, Jordan Mason and Brandon Aiyuk are ranked highly for me on the week.

  • The Rams and 49ers are giving up the 9th and 10th worst passing YPG respectively.
  • The Rams are giving up the highest EPA per play.
  • Kyren Williams has the 7th worst Rushing Yards Over Expected
  • He has the 6th worst YPC (2.5)

Key Start

Boom Bust Flex

Key Sit

Injury Report

Healthy

OUT

Doubtful

Questionable

Lions -148 @ Cardinals +124

Sunday, 2:25 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 51.5 Spread: 3

Fantasy Game Points

Once again, the Lions are in a matchup with the most expected points. This is the juiciest matchup all week and we're firing on all cylinders.

Key Start

  • Yes

Key Sit

  • Don't

Injury Report

Healthy

OUT

  • NA

Questionable

Ravens -115 @ Cowboys -105

Sunday, 4:25 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 47.5 Spread: 1

Fantasy Game Points

I have serious concerns with the Ravens' defense who can't defend the pass, especially when they're going up against a pass-happy team like the Cowboys. This doesn't mean I'm concerned about the Lamar Jackson lead offense. In fact, this just makes me love the neutral or negative game scripts all season for everyone but Derrick Henry.

The Cowboys have a tough defense, but the offense will struggle if they ever need to run the football. The one thing the Ravens do well against on defense. The correct answer to the Cowboys' RB situation was neither, and especially not Dowdle.

  • The Ravens' defense is the best against the run with 49.5 yards per game and 2.7 yards per rush.
  • Ezekiel Elliott and Rico Dowdle have 40% and 43% snap share respectively.
  • As well as the 11th and 14th worst YPC.
  • Justice Hill leads the Ravens RBs in snaps
  • Zay Flowers is 5th in targets.

Key Start

Key Sit

Boom Bust Flex

Injury Report

Healthy

Doubtful

  • NA

OUT

Questionable

Chiefs -162 @ Falcons +136

Sunday, 6:20 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 46.5 Spread: 3

Fantasy Game Points

Kirk looked much better than the statue we watched in Week 1 but has a tougher matchup against the Chiefs' underrated defense. Keep in mind that there is a real argument that the Falcons have a better defense, and I wouldn't be surprised if this game hits the unders. Drake London had a late start, but so did Kirk. So this is another chalky game where I'll start my studs.

Injury Report

Healthy

OUT

Questionable

  • NA

Jaguars +190 @ Bills -230

Monday, 7:30 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 45.5 Spread: 5

Fantasy Game Points

When will we see the best of Trevor Lawrence? I'm unsure if the Bills are the “get right” game. However, Brian Thomas Jr. has been a welcome addition to the offense that gives me hope that they'll soon start connecting on more deep targets in the future (fingers crossed.) Christian Kirk is statistically one of the worst performers of the season and can arguably be dropped if this trend continues after this week.

The Bills passing offense is a bit of a mystery with their TNF football game being an outlier with a major injury and positive game script, but Dalton Kincaid is quite the disappointment so far. However, Josh Allen is still playing elite football, and the running game has been a major boost, so I expect to see this change against a Jags defense that is struggling worse than the offense.

Key Start

Key Sit

Injury Report

Healthy

OUT

Doubtful

  • NA

Questionable

  •  

Commanders +280 @ Bengals -355

Monday, 8:15 PM EST Kickoff | O/U: 47 Spread: 7.5

Fantasy Game Points

The Commanders are the ultimate test to the question “Is Ja'Marr Chase still good?” Because we should be concerned if he can't do it at home against one of the worst teams in football. The only thing working in Washington is Jayden Daniels and Brian Robinson Jr. and I'm willing to roll them out every week regardless of matchup. Even despite the Kliff Kingsbury-shaped weight on the offense's ankle.

All of these complaints could be applied to the Bengals offense who are on the wrong half of the league passing YPG list with such a talented roster. It helps that Tee Higgins seems to be making his return. I'm still concerned this defense will be gashed in the rushing game with the injuries to the DL.

  • Jayden Daniels still posted 14 fantasy points despite not throwing a TD.
  • He's also 6th in EPA.
  • Brian Robinson Jr is 4th in Rushing Yards Over Expected.
  • The Bengals are giving up the 7th most rushing yards per game.

Key Start

Key Sit

Injury Report

Healthy

OUT

Questionable

Photos provided by USA TODAY Sports
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