Dynasty News, July 15, 2024

This summer, we will examine the dynasty news through the lens of the three key aspects for dynasty managers: talent, value, and opportunity.

Identifying the correct talent level is the first order of business in dynasty. Understanding the appropriate level of talent determines whether it is pursuing a correct valuation and comprehension of the opportunity.

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It takes success in all three areas to be a successful dynasty manager. In today’s  Dynasty News, we will examine a few of the running back situations impacted by free agency.

Derrick Henry, Baltimore

The veteran signed with Baltimore as he is pursuing a Super Bowl opportunity. After eight years in Tennessee, it was time for a change. The Ravens reshaped their backfield, bringing in Henry and allowing Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins to exit in free agency. Many in the dynasty community worry about how much tread Henry has remaining.

The veteran ball carrier showed no signs of slowing down last year, carrying the ball 280 times for 1,167 yards and 12 touchdowns. It is important to note that Henry’s yards-per-carry average has declined each of the past four seasons. He has carried the ball a whopping 2,030 times in his career, amassing 9,502 yards and 90 touchdowns. Baltimore is expected to run the ball often with Henry as the lead back.

Last year, the Ravens running backs carried the ball a total of 364 times while the quarterbacks rushed 163 times. The signing of Henry should signal a foundational change in the Ravens offense. We expect Baltimore to run the ball more (than the 541 times in 2023) with Henry, taking the hits away from star quarterback Lamar Jackson.

Dynasty managers have a decision to make, especially those who feel like their teams are contenders. Adding Henry for a year or two could be the difference-making trade needed for the dynasty title. Yes, his age and mileage are a concern in the eyes of most dynasty managers, but the trade price in most leagues is around a future mid-second-round rookie pick. He makes an intriguing option for the cost. There is a legitimate chance that Henry leads the league in rushing touchdowns. Last year, Baltimore rushed for 26 touchdowns (by players of all positions). Jackson only had five of those scores. Henry will be backed up by Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell, once he returns. Hill is a decent back – worth stashing – but is no threat to Henry’s touches. Mitchell may not be fully recovered until 2025. 

Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia

Barkley signed a three-year deal in Philadelphia as he, too, desires a chance at a ring. The addition of Barkley and the retirement of Jason Kelce could result in fewer rushing touchdowns for quarterback Jalen Hurts, who ran in 15 scores in 2023. Last year, the Eagles ran the ball 510 times as a team, with Hurts garnering 157 of those. Barkley has looked very good – when healthy – the past few years and could add a physical running element the offense has missed. In his six years as a pro, Barkley has rushed the ball 1,201 times for 5,211 yards and 35 touchdowns. He has carried the ball more than 200 times in four of his six seasons in New York.

There is little depth behind Barkley as Kenneth Gainwell is the only dynasty-viable option from Philadelphia … at least for 2024. The ex-Giant turned 27 in February, and his signing could signal a change in offense as Kellen Moore was brought in to run the offense. The Eagles will lean on Barkley as they chase another title. He, too, makes a great dynasty buy for teams chasing a championship. He is a full three years younger than Henry and will cost a little more. Health is the lone concern for dynasty managers seeking to add a top-end back to add to their dynasty rosters.

Joe Mixon, Houston

The Houston Texans were set on adding significant pieces around quarterback C.J. Stroud. Mixon was signed. Stefon Diggs was acquired via trade. Mixon instantly becomes the unquestioned lead back for the Texans.  It is difficult to believe that Mixon is only a few months younger than Barkley. Plus, Mixon has played one more year in the NFL than Barkley. At 27, he still has some years left. In his seven years in Cincinnati, Mixon was durable, carrying the ball more than 200 times five times. In total, he rushed 1,571 times for 6,412 yards and 49 touchdowns.

Dameon Pierce is his backup. After a promising rookie season (under the old regime), Pierce has been pushed aside. He makes a solid handcuff in deep leagues where running back depth is in short supply. We wonder if Mixon will get enough carries to be worthy of a dynasty target. The departed Devin Singletary only toted the rock 216 times in 2023. He had roughly two-thirds of the backfield’s carries but still was not a fantasy difference-maker. He is a hold or sell-high for dynasty given everything working against him.

One last thing to consider: the Texans ran the ball more than they wanted last year, as the starting receivers were injured. Plus, Diggs is added to the equation. In total, the 371 running back carries could actually decrease in favor of more passing attempts. The Houston passing game is better for dynasty than the rushing attack. Invest in Stroud, Collins, and Dell for your dynasty roster. 

Zack Moss, Cincinnati

The Moss signing in Cincinnati went under the radar with the other big running-back signings. The Mixon departure created a big void on the depth chart as he carried the ball 257 times in 2023. No other back had more than 44 carries. Moss carried the ball 183 times in Indianapolis while filling in for Jonathan Taylor. He steps into the unquestioned lead role now with the Bengals. There is fantasy upside as this is a high-powered offense with ample rushing-touchdown potential. There is not much on the depth chart behind Moss, leading us to believe that the Bengals will bring in more depth and talent at the position. He will turn 27 years of age during the season and has only 484 career carries. This is a team poised for a Super Bowl run and will need quality starters at every position. Moss is a polarizing player as he will cost as much as Barkley or Mixon (even though he’s just a few months younger) but carries moderate dynasty-starter potential.

Gus Edwards, LA Chargers

Edwards and JK Dobbins join the Chargers to replace Austin Ekeler. Both players come over from the Ravens, where they played for the "other" Harbaugh coach. Dobbins is coming off an Achilles tear last September. Some backs never regain their original burst after the injury. It is a concern. Also, Dobbins tore multiple knee ligaments in August 2021, so it is fair to question his durability, even though he has stated that he is 100% healthy. Time will tell. Dobbins is still just 25 years of age.

He and Edwards give the Chargers a viable 1-2 punch when healthy. Coach Harbaugh likes to run the ball, and the weak Los Angeles roster will force the Chargers to run as much as possible. Rookie Kimani Vidal was drafted to add depth to the roster. Given Harbaugh’s love for veterans, it should be expected that Vidal will be brought along slowly. Do not be surprised if he plays very little early in the season if Dobbins is healthy. This will represent a great buy opportunity for dynasty managers who liked his play at Troy. In college, the solidly built (5-foot-8 and 213 pounds) Vidal amassed 4,010 yards and 33 touchdowns in 48 career games. Vidal is a great prospect to gamble on if he starts the year slowly. The Chargers will remake their roster, so dynasty managers are encouraged to tread carefully. This team will look much differently for dynasty in the coming years. 

D'Andre Swift, Chicago

Swift signed in Chicago to add a pop to the Bears offense. For a player who has been labeled as "injury-prone", Swift has missed only eight of 65 career games. Last year – in Philadelphia – Swift notched career highs with 229 carries and 1,049 rushing yards. He is a great receiver out of the backfield, catching at least 39 passes every year of his career. Swift is the unquestioned lead back, only battling complementary backs in Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert for touches. This Chicago offense is built for speed and the play-making ability of rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. Of the backups, Herbert is the desirable handcuff or upside stash. This is a team to invest in for dynasty. The Bears will put up points, which is a dream for dynasty managers.

Austin Ekeler, Washington

Washington signed Ekeler on the cheap to give rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels a passing-game threat as he acclimates to Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. Veteran Antonio Gibson departed in free agency and signed in New England. The Washington offense needed a pass-catching option with the lack of big-play players at the other skill positions (outside of Terry McLaurin). Brian Robinson should remain as the power runner. Ekeler’s age (29) and career touches (1,430) should temper expectations, but Ekeler still should have a sizable role in the offense. This team should be playing from behind often, resulting in increased receptions for Ekeler. The style of offense will be interesting to watch as coach Dan Quinn is much more conservative than Kingsbury, who likes a wide-open passing attack. The addition of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels could lead to a more conservative approach. Time will tell. Dynasty managers are encouraged to stay away from this situation unless the price is cheap, as there is little upside in these two ball carriers.

Josh Jacobs, Green Bay

Jacobs signed in Green Bay after a five-year stint with the Raiders. He has been durable, playing in 73 of 81 career games. Jacobs was the focal point of the offense, touching the ball 1,502 times in those five years. There is concern that the wear and tear has caused the veteran to lose a step. The selection of MarShawn Lloyd in the third round of the 2024 NFL Draft should signal the team’s adoration for the speedy back from Southern California. AJ Dillon remains as a depth piece for the Packers. Lloyd is the only back to pursue in dynasty, as Jacobs’ presence should lower his acquisition cost. This is a young, ascending offense that wants Lloyd to be the guy, so let others chase Jacobs for the short-term gain and know that the team wants Lloyd to mature into that role very soon. How soon it happens is anyone’s guess. Dynasty managers are encouraged to invest in the youthful Lloyd for their dynasty rosters. 

Aaron Jones, Minnesota

Jones signed with Minnesota after spending the first seven years of his career in Green Bay. He totaled 1,449 total touches as a Packer and still looked spry in 2023. With rookie J.J. McCarthy under center for some or all of the 2024 season, Jones may have a larger role than most expect. He turns 30 during the season, so price is a big factor in deciding whether to acquire Jones in dynasty leagues. Ty Chandler is Jones’ main competition for touches. Chandler splashed in 2023, especially the December game at Cincinnati, where the youngster carried the ball 23 times for 132 yards and a touchdown while adding another 25 yards on 4 catches. Chandler is a solid buy as the Vikings offense could surprise this season as Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison remain big-play receivers. This is an offense on the rise for dynasty managers. 

Devin Singletary, NY Giants

Singletary signed in New York after the Giants lost Saquon Barkley in free agency. He is now on his third team in six years, but in Houston last year, Singletary set career highs for carries (216) and rushing yards (898). In the inert Giants offense, Singletary should not be seen as a Barkley replacement. Rather, he is a smaller (5-foot-7 and 203 pounds) back who excels in the passing game more than as a lead back. New York has little behind Singletary, just Eric Gray (who was injured for most of his rookie season) and rookie Tyrone Tracy. Tracy is a player to watch as he flashed potential at Purdue. One knock on him is that Tracy will turn 25 in his rookie season. This will be a weak offensive unit for the Giants so Singletary’s receiving prowess may be the lone fantasy path of the group. With the tenuous security of the current regime, the next regime will likely bring in its own skill position players, which is bad news for dynasty managers.

Zamir White, Las Vegas

White benefits greatly from the departure of Jacobs. The former Georgia Bulldog had huge games late in the season as Las Vegas made a playoff run. He topped 100 rushing yards in two of his last four games. The team let Jacobs leave because they have confidence in White. He is definitely a buy in dynasty as coach Antonio Pierce speaks effusively about the young back. The Raiders only added Alexander Mattison to the backfield. This job is White’s to lose, and the price is low in comparison to the bigger names on this list.

In the next installment of the series, we will look at the rookie wide receivers and their talent, value, and opportunity with an eye toward dynasty.

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