Dynasty News, July 15, 2024

Photo: USA Today Sports

This summer, we will examine the dynasty news through the lens of the three key aspects for dynasty managers: talent, value, and opportunity.

Identifying the correct talent level is the first order of business in dynasty. Understanding the appropriate level of talent determines whether it is pursuing a correct valuation and comprehension of the opportunity.

RELATED: See Rookie QB News here >>>

It takes success in all three areas to be a successful dynasty manager. In today’s  Dynasty News, we will examine a few of the running back situations impacted by free agency.

Derrick Henry, Baltimore

The veteran signed with Baltimore as he is pursuing a Super Bowl opportunity. After eight years in Tennessee, it was time for a change. The Ravens reshaped their backfield, bringing in Henry and allowing Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins to exit in free agency. Many in the dynasty community worry about how much tread Henry has remaining.

The veteran ball carrier showed no signs of slowing down last year, carrying the ball 280 times for 1,167 yards and 12 touchdowns. It is important to note that Henry’s yards-per-carry average has declined each of the past four seasons. He has carried the ball a whopping 2,030 times in his career, amassing 9,502 yards and 90 touchdowns. Baltimore is expected to run the ball often with Henry as the lead back.

Last year, the Ravens running backs carried the ball a total of 364 times while the quarterbacks rushed 163 times. The signing of Henry should signal a foundational change in the Ravens offense. We expect Baltimore to run the ball more (than the 541 times in 2023) with Henry, taking the hits away from star quarterback Lamar Jackson.

Dynasty managers have a decision to make, especially those who feel like their teams are contenders. Adding Henry for a year or two could be the difference-making trade needed for the dynasty title. Yes, his age and mileage are a concern in the eyes of most dynasty managers, but the trade price in most leagues is around a future mid-second-round rookie pick. He makes an intriguing option for the cost. There is a legitimate chance that Henry leads the league in rushing touchdowns. Last year, Baltimore rushed for 26 touchdowns (by players of all positions). Jackson only had five of those scores. Henry will be backed up by Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell, once he returns. Hill is a decent back – worth stashing – but is no threat to Henry’s touches. Mitchell may not be fully recovered until 2025. 

Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia

Barkley signed a three-year deal in Philadelphia as he, too, desires a chance at a ring. The addition of Barkley and the retirement of Jason Kelce could result in fewer rushing touchdowns for quarterback Jalen Hurts, who ran in 15 scores in 2023. Last year, the Eagles ran the ball 510 times as a team, with Hurts garnering 157 of those. Barkley has looked very good – when healthy – the past few years and could add a physical running element the offense has missed. In his six years as a pro, Barkley has rushed the ball 1,201 times for 5,211 yards and 35 touchdowns. He has carried the ball more than 200 times in four of his six seasons in New York.

There is little depth behind Barkley as Kenneth Gainwell is the only dynasty-viable option from Philadelphia … at least for 2024. The ex-Giant turned 27 in February, and his signing could signal a change in offense as Kellen Moore was brought in to run the offense. The Eagles will lean on Barkley as they chase another title. He, too, makes a great dynasty buy for teams chasing a championship. He is a full three years younger than Henry and will cost a little more. Health is the lone concern for dynasty managers seeking to add a top-end back to add to their dynasty rosters.

Joe Mixon, Houston

The Houston Texans were set on adding significant pieces around quarterback C.J. Stroud. Mixon was signed. Stefon Diggs was acquired via trade. Mixon instantly becomes the unquestioned lead back for the Texans.  It is difficult to believe that Mixon is only a few months younger than Barkley. Plus, Mixon has played one more year in the NFL than Barkley. At 27, he still has some years left. In his seven years in Cincinnati, Mixon was durable, carrying the ball more than 200 times five times. In total, he rushed 1,571 times for 6,412 yards and 49 touchdowns.

Dameon Pierce is his backup. After a promising rookie season (under the old regime), Pierce has been pushed aside. He makes a solid handcuff in deep leagues where running back depth is in short supply. We wonder if Mixon will get enough carries to be worthy of a dynasty target. The departed Devin Singletary only toted the rock 216 times in 2023. He had roughly two-thirds of the backfield’s carries but still was not a fantasy difference-maker. He is a hold or sell-high for dynasty given everything working against him.

One last thing to consider: the Texans ran the ball more than they wanted last year, as the starting receivers were injured. Plus, Diggs is added to the equation. In total, the 371 running back carries could actually decrease in favor of more passing attempts. The Houston passing game is better for dynasty than the rushing attack. Invest in Stroud, Collins, and Dell for your dynasty roster.