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Footballguys staff got together to play a game of Buy, Hold, or Sell. They grouped and examined three similarly valued Dynasty players and placed them into each category.
For this round, the team looked at quarterbacks in Superflex Dynasty formats. The quarterbacks: Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, and Geno Smith.
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The Results (number of votes in parentheses)
- Buy: Matthew Stafford (3), Kirk Cousins (3), Geno Smith (2)
- Hold: Matthew Stafford (4), Kirk Cousins (0), Geno Smith (3)
- Sell: Matthew Stafford (1), Kirk Cousins (4), Geno Smith (3)
Each Staffer's Responses
Ryan Weisse
- Buy: Matthew Stafford
- Hold: Geno Smith
- Sell: Kirk Cousins
When answering this type of question, my first instinct is to look for the highest-value player to sell. In this instance, Cousins has the highest value based on the unknown. He lands in Atlanta after a good run in Minnesota, but nobody knows how he will bounce back. I'll look for a team desperate at quarterback and hope they have Drake London or Kyle Pitts and need Stafford to complete the stack.
I'll buy Stafford. He has two excellent receivers and should be affordable in Dynasty based on age. That leaves Geno Smith as the odd man out. Nobody is going to pay up for him after a down year. If I have him, I'll hold for the 2024 season and hope he gets hot.
Hutchinson Brown
- Buy: Matthew Stafford
- Hold: Geno Smith
- Sell: Kirk Cousins
I want to buy Stafford in Dynasty because I believe he is undervalued in that format. Like both quarterbacks listed, you likely do not have more than a couple of years of value, if that is at all. Stafford has plenty of potential that isn't appreciated by the fantasy community enough. Last year, he was a top-tier QB2 in fantasy points per game, providing a five-game stretch finishing as a top twelve quarterback in all five of those games. The Rams are running back this year with the same great weapons and an upgraded backfield, so Stafford should provide plenty of fantasy value for at least this season if he is healthy.
I want to sell Kirk Cousins in Dynasty because most fantasy players get caught up in the exciting Falcons offense but do not discuss the major question marks surrounding Cousins enough. His major Achilles injury at 35 and the 8th overall pick in the draft, Michael Penix Jr., bring up major concerns. These two things significantly worry me about Cousins' future, and he is still being drafted as a player to depend on in a Superflex dynasty league, which I am not a supporter of.
Holding Geno Smith is likely the smartest choice because many are concerned about him coming off a down year and entering this season with Sam Howell waiting on the bench and ready to take the starting job. Smith's value has significantly diminished and many would not be excited to trade for him. While Smith has had the starting job, he has given us plenty of fantasy relevance. This year should be no different. Smith has a talented receiving room around him with a potential breakout player in Jaxon Smith-Njigba and a two-headed monster in the backfield with Walker and Charbonnet.
Andy Hicks
- Buy: Kirk Cousins
- Hold: Matthew Stafford
- Sell: Geno Smith
Despite being similar in age to Stafford, Cousins has been more durable, except for his torn Achilles, of course. Cousins has a few seasons left starting in the league, and depending on the progress of the development project, Michael Penix, maybe all of them are in Atlanta. Maybe Atlanta will do a Green Bay with Jordan Love and Aaron Rodgers and keep Penix on ice for a few seasons.
There have been rumors of Stafford's impending retirement. After years of his body taking an absolute pounding, he has little left to prove, and Jimmy Garoppolo signed in the off-season. I would keep Stafford, as he will put up reasonable fantasy numbers, but I do not think we'll see three more years—one, maybe two.
Smith had an unexpected resurrection to his career under Pete Carroll. With Carroll gone and Sam Howell traded for, Smith probably starts the season but under a short leash. They will want to see what Howell can do in this offense before deciding if a long-term starter is sought in the 2025 draft.
Jason Wood
- Buy: Kirk Cousins
- Hold: Matthew Stafford
- Sell: Geno Smith
Generally speaking, none of these veterans are particularly valuable in non-Superflex formats. But if you're playing Superflex, all three will be relied on, and Cousins — despite the Achilles — sits atop the list. His body of work is far more consistent, and the Falcons are financially committed to him for at least the next two seasons. Stafford is fine, given his prior peaks and dynamic one-two punch at receiver, but he has contemplated retirement of late. Geno Smith had one solid season, turned back into a pumpkin last year, and now faces an entirely new offensive system.
Leo Paciga
- Buy: Matthew Stafford
- Hold: Kirk Cousins
- Sell: Geno Smith
Stafford is a high-ceiling/high-floor QB with outstanding receiving weapons, a creative coaching staff, and an adequate offensive line. Overall health and durability going forward are the only real concerns regarding Stafford, and his productivity and year-over-year consistency push the scales in his favor. Stafford is the buy from this group.
I believe both Cousins and Smith qualify as sells from this list, but they don't have the same transactional windows. Cousins is the hold because the opportunity for increased value is tied directly to his ability to get on the field and show his recovery from last year's Achilles injury. By all indications, Cousins is on track to be the starting QB in Atlanta for week 1, and with a new coaching staff and plenty of offensive weapons, Kirk is in a position to be productive early. Holding Cousins until that positive momentum is evident on 4k TVs across the country will drive his market price up and erase any lingering injury discount.
Smith is one of those lower-tier QBs who offers depth and injury/bye-week stability on a contending roster. Still, overall expectations are capped even with a talented receiving group and a new offensive coordinator (Ryan Grubb) in town. The Seahawks also have newly acquired QB Sam Howell pacing the shadows of Lumen Field, waiting for an opportunity to show off his arm strength and deep ball passing ability. Geno's value takes a hit the longer you hold, so he's the current “sell” on this list.
Corey Spala
- Buy: Kirk Cousins
- Hold: Matthew Stafford
- Sell: Geno Smith
We are in limbo and do not know how Kirk Cousins will play following his Achilles recovery. There is the possibility that his play will not return to his career baseline. It appears his recovery process is going well, and we cannot forget the guaranteed money Atlanta provided in his offseason deal ($100M). Cousins will be surrounded by playmakers at all positions, and the security of the organization believes in his recovery process.
I am looking to capitalize on any starting quarterback value in Superflex leagues. I am targeting a league mate desperate for quarterback production and sending Geno Smith. He signed a frontloaded extension and is under contract through 2025; Seattle could save $11.5 million if he is not on the roster in 2025. Will Seattle look at Sam Howell? They traded for him in the offseason.
The Rams have two dynamic wide receivers and a head coach. The combination breeds well for Stafford. He is 36 years old, and I would be happy to get at least two more seasons out of QB2 production. Stafford is currently under contract through the 2026 season. Stafford will retain a starting role moving forward compared to Smith with Seattle.
Matt Waldman
- Buy: Geno Smith
- Hold: Matthew Stafford
- Sell: Kirk Cousins
I am buying Smith, selling Cousins, and holding Stafford. A lot of Smith's problems in 2023 relate to losing his starting tackles during the opener. Smith's value is so low because everyone abandoned the bandwagon that there will be only a small sunk cost for a quarterback about to lead a wide-open passing game with three talented receivers.
Cousins would be a hold if not for his Achilles injury. While we expect he'll be ready to start in the fall in a variant of the Sean McVay offense that should be a good fit for him, Cousins must prove that he can drive off his injured foot. As of the NFL Draft, Cousins told the media he could only run in a straight line and that moving laterally was a no-go. If he can drive off his rehabbed leg satisfactorily, his velocity and accuracy will suffer.
Stafford has two excellent receivers in Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, and he displayed a strong rapport with Demarcus Robinson late last year. Paired with a good ground game and a proven offensive mind in McVay, Stafford is the most proven option of the three quarterbacks.
Jeff Bell
- Buy: Geno Smith
- Hold: Matthew Stafford
- Sell: Kirk Cousins
I agree with Matt here. Smith's price makes him a buy target. He is a couple of years younger than Cousins and Stafford, and Ryan Grubbs' new Seattle offense could push his ceiling back to 2022 levels, where Smith finished as a QB1.
Stafford is a hold. He is in a great situation with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp in a Sean McVay offense, but semi-recent retirement rumors have doubled down on suppressing his value. Stafford has shut down those rumors, but once the seed is planted, it is tough to let go in Dynasty.
Cousins is a sell. He has shiny-new-toy value insulation. Given his contract, some believe he is locked in for the next four seasons. However, with his Achilles injury and Michael Penix Jr. breathing down his neck to justify his Top 10 selection, Cousin's time could be much shorter.
