DraftKings Sunday Night Showdown: Week 13

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the Showdown decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

The big question heading into this week is the weather. As of Sunday Morning, it appears that the snow that Buffalo is anticipated to receive is all going to happen south of the stadium, with just a 15-20% chance of snow within the area. While it is going to be cold, especially for the 49ers heading to Buffalo, the wind should not be a major concern here as it is only going to be about 10 miles per hour, which is a big reason why the over/under in this game has not moved.

The Bills should be in a great spot here at home in the cold against a 49ers team that is reeling. The 49ers desperately need a win at 5-6, but they’re coming off of a 38-10 beatdown to the Packers, which they didn’t show up for, as Josh Jacobs ran all over the 49ers defense.

Injury Report

Brock Purdy appears to be starting this week after missing last week due to a shoulder injury. The team indicated that he did not have any setbacks and practiced in full on Friday.

Fred Warner came out and said that he was playing with a fractured ankle earlier this week. The big question is how is that going to hold up in the cold Buffalo weather. The 49ers desperately need Warner to play at a high level after Josh Jacobs ran for over 100 yards and three touchdowns against this defense last week.

Dalton Kincaid will miss this week with a knee injury. This should open up some additional opportunities for both Khalil Shakir and Dawson Knox. Knox did see a season-high six targets in the Bills last game with Kincaid out.

Keon Coleman is questionable after missing the last two games for the Bills. It looks likely the 6’4’’ rookie receiver will play, which is good news for the Bills passing game as he provides a downfield threat that the team desperately needs.

Trent Williams is out this week at left tackle, while guard Aaron Banks is also out for San Francisco. The Williams injury is a critical one, as he’s one of the best-left tackles in football, which could create issues for the 49ers this week.

Nick Bosa is also out this week for San Francisco. This crushes a pass rush that has already seen a significant drop-off compared to their standards. This is a defense that needs a pass rush as they’re already without several key pieces in the secondary in Deommodore Lenoir, Talanoa Hufanga, and Dre Greenlaw at linebacker.

Captain Consideration

1. Josh Allen
2. Jauan Jennings
3. Christian McCaffrey
4. George Kittle
5. Keon Coleman

San Francisco 49ers

Quarterback

Brock Purdy (Flex Only)

For Purdy, we don’t know how healthy he is going to be this week. This is a must-win game for the 49ers, or their playoff chances will start to become fairly bleak, so even if Purdy is 60% healthy, they need to run him out there and hope for the best. Part of Purdy’s fantasy upside is his rushing upside, as he has run for four touchdowns in his last four games and at least 25 yards in three of his last four. However, with a shoulder injury, is that something that Purdy is still going to be willing to do this week? It seems far more likely that the game plan will be for the 49ers to take a low-risk game plan with Purdy getting the ball out to his key playmakers and having him expertly run this offense, which was something that Brandon Allen struggled to do last week. The Bills’ pass defense has been one of the better units in the NFL this season, as they’ve held five quarterbacks under 200 yards, including Patrick Mahomes II, Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, Lamar Jackson, and Trevor Lawrence.’ While they’ve only allowed one 300-yard passer all season to C.J. Stroud.

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey (Captain or Flex)

Since returning from the Achilles injury, we’ve yet to see Christian McCaffrey have a breakout performance. McCaffrey does not have a touchdown, is averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, and does not have a 100-yard rushing game in the three games back from injury. While he has shown some upside in the passing game, averaging 44 receiving yards per game, this is still not enough to make up for the struggles of running the ball or the lack of touchdowns. However, this week, McCaffrey is facing a Buffalo team that is allowing the third most fantasy points to opposing running backs and the most receiving yards to the position in the NFL this season. We’ve seen Derrick Henry, Breece Hall, De’Von Achane twice, and Jonathan Taylor all have big games against the Bills, and for McCaffrey, in a must-win game, this is a performance that they simply need to be able to lean on one of the league’s best running backs. The only concern is that with linebacker Matt Milano back for the Bills, this will be a unit that does improve with the veteran coming back for the first time this season.

Wide Receiver

Jauan Jennings (Captain or Flex)
Deebo Samuel Sr. (Flex)
Ricky Pearsall (Fade)

Jauan Jennings and the 49ers receiving group overall had a lackluster day with Brandon Allen at quarterback in their 38-10 blowout loss last week. However, Jennings is a player who has 90 yards or more in the two prior games, with Brock Purdy as the starter. Since Brandon Aiyuk was lost for the season, Jennings has been elevated into that top receiver role. He has the profile at 6’3’’, 210 pounds to replace Aiyuk, and has shown both consistency without Aiyuk in those two 90-yard performances as well as an upside earlier this season with a 175-yard 3-touchdown performance against the Rams.

For Samuel, there’s something strange going on with him this season. He’s been completely ineffective in the running game, averaging just 2.9 yards per carry, compared to 6.1 last season, and as a receiver, he’s having the worst year in his career, averaging just 3.4 receptions per game with one touchdown. The biggest issue for Samuel, however, is that his price has not come down nearly enough to justify feeling great about using him. At $9,000, he’s the fifth-most expensive player on this slate, which is just overpriced. He’s fine as a contrarian flex play simply because the talent is still there, but the level of production that he’s had this season should not inspire confidence.

For Ricky Pearsall, the snaps are there, but the production simply has not been. This is a player who, since returning from injury, has been on the field for about 60% of the play, yet has just 11 catches in the five games and does not have a reception in his last two games as he has just two total targets over his last two games. The 49ers have not been able to work the rookie into their offense, and at $4,800, you really want to see more upside than hoping for a long catch, which he has one catch longer than 15 yards all season.

Tight End

George Kittle (Captain or Flex)

In terms of upside, Kittle should have as much upside as anyone on the 49ers this week. He’s been the go-to player in the red zone with five touchdowns over the last five games, has at least 50 yards in six straight games, and leads the team in yards, targets, and receptions. At $8,600, the price is high for a tight end, but he should have some of the highest upside on this slate with the best touchdown probability. The Bills have been strong against the tight end position as they completely eliminated Travis Kelce in their last game, and no tight end has had more than 60 yards against the Bills all season.

Buffalo Bills

Quarterback

Josh Allen (Captain or FLEX)

Josh Allen is always going to be a captain consideration every time he touches the field. With his dual-threat passing and rushing ability, he’s a player who has the upside to score multiple rushing touchdowns every time he takes the field. While the 49ers defense has the name recognition, this is not the team that opponents should fear. With Nick Bosa out, the pass rush of the 49ers is non-existent, and they have a secondary that is incredibly banged up with several key pieces out. Allen has a way of showing up in these Primetime games, and with so many receiving options as well as his rushing touchdown upside, he’s a prime candidate to be a captain this week.

Running Back

James Cook (Flex)
Ray Davis (Flex)

Josh Jacobs completely dominated the 49ers last week as the Packers ran all over San Francisco in the 38-10 victory. This is likely going to have people looking more heavily towards James Cook this week, but it seems unlikely that a similar outcome would be in the cards. Cook is a completely different running back than Jacobs, as he’s a smaller one who is not going to have 26 carries in a single game. Volume has been an issue for Cook as he has 9, 19, and 10 carries over the last three weeks, with the 19-carry game being one in which Ray Davis simply was ineffective in his three carries for six yards. Cook is going to be touchdown-dependent, and he’s been great this season, scoring six touchdowns over his last five games, which will likely make him a great flex, but unless he can score multiple touchdowns and likely finish with 100 total yards, it is going to be difficult for him to be the GPP winning captain play this week.

For Ray Davis, this is a long-shot flex play. The thinking here is that if this game gets out of hand, the Bills could turn to the backup running back and give him an increased workload. Or if something happened to Cook throughout this game, Davis would be able to slide in at just $2,800. If neither of those things happens, his floor will be low, as he may only have five carries, and he will only see about 20% of the snaps for Buffalo.

Wide Receiver

Khalil Shakir (Flex)
Keon Coleman (Captain Only)
Curtis Samuel (Flex)
Amari Cooper (Fade)

The Bills passing game is all over the place. With Keon Coleman back, the weapons that they have are all good, none great. Shakir is likely going to lead the way once again in terms of volume, as he leads the team in receptions, targets, and yards. However, Shakir is a possession receiver, averaging just 10.7 yards per reception as he’s primarily utilized out of the slot.

For Coleman, he’s the player with the big play upside. Averaging 19.0 yards per catch, Coleman can take the top off of a defense and come up with a game-changing play. With the 49ers having issues at safety due to the injury to Talanoa Hufanga earlier this season, they’re starting 4^th-round rookie Malik Mustapha and second-year 3^rd round pick Ji’Ayir Brown. Expect the Bills to put some pressure on this defense and take several deep shots down to Coleman this week. The big question for Coleman is whether he’s able to have enough of a role to justify the $6,400 flex price point. It seems, at 19.0 yards per catch, that he’s likely going to be a boom or bust type player, someone who you could take a chance on as a captain and hope he catches one or two long touchdown passes, but not someone you feel great about if he doesn’t have those long plays.

Curtis Samuel is not going to make anyone excited. The veteran slot receiver is a pure possession-type player who is averaging just 8.8 yards per catch. However, he’s just $4,400 and has 14 targets over the last two games. If he’s able to catch 4-5 passes this week, he’s going to pay off his $4,400 salary.

Amari Cooper is a fade-until-further-notice type player. At $7,200, the receiver just has not found a role in this Bills offense that is consistent enough to trust. Over the last two games, Cooper has just five total targets as the team is using him more of a downfield deep threat, likely due to the injury to Keon Coleman. With Coleman now back, what role will they be asking of Cooper? He has just looked lost at times, averaging only about 50% of the snaps with the Bills.

Tight End

Dawson Knox (Flex)

Dawson Knox has not done much to inspire confidence over the last two seasons. This year, he has not topped 50 yards receiving despite Dalton Kincaid’s struggles and health issues. With Kincaid out again this week, Knox should be in a spot where he can build off of the season-high six targets that he saw against Kansas City in the team’s last game. At $4,000 on a week where there are not a lot of savings opportunities, Knox is cheap enough that all you realistically are going to need is a handful of catches, and if he can somehow find the end zone, you’re going to be in great shape.

Kicker and Defense

Kickers are largely going to be dependent on the weather. There are mixed reports circling all over the board regarding this snow band and its overall impact on the game. The game opened at 44.5 as an over/under, and if it falls to below 42.5 by game time, that’s something to at least be cautious about. If not, Brandon Bass is certainly in play as a flex play this week. For Jake Moody, it is a tough one as he’s not cheap enough at $5,200 for a team that is a significant road underdog. Moody has also shown inconsistency at times this season, and taking a road kicker as an underdog in potentially bad weather conditions just does not seem optimal.

In terms of defenses, Buffalo’s defense should be firmly in play this week. With Brock Purdy questionable, we really don’t know how healthy he is in this must-win game. Is he going to make mistakes he otherwise wouldn’t make simply because he’s trying to overcompensate for being less than 100%? Will the offensive line issues for the 49ers lead to more sacks for Buffalo? Could bad weather pop up throughout the game and cause this to be a sloppy snow game for the team from California? All are realistic outcomes that make this a game in which you could play Buffalo’s defense. San Francisco’s defense really is not in play. As big underdogs, they’re just missing too many key players to have any confidence that they’ll be able to slow down the Bills offense this week.

Player Chart