NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the Showdown decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

Vegas isn’t overly worried by the 49ers’ injury woes. They’re still a solid -4.5 home favorite over the down-bad Cowboys. That said, the 48.5 projected total reflects a serious lack of offensive firepower on the field. Cash games will favor the simple, stripped-down approach: chase the locked-in volume of CeeDee Lamb and Jordan Mason. Those looking to win deep Showdowns, though, will look at all the peripheral options.

Injury Report

The Cowboys continue to muddle along with several key defensive injuries. Micah Parsons, Demarcus Lawrence, and DaRon Bland are all either out or on IR. There was a chance super-kicker Brandon Aubrey would miss the trip due to jury duty, but he now looks good to go.

The 49ers are waylaid by numerous injuries at the skill spots. Top outside receiver Brandon Aiyuk has been lost for the year, and his breakout backup, Jauan Jennings, has been ruled out for tonight. There’s also a chance Deebo Samuel Sr. and/or George Kittle sit as well.

Captain Consideration

1. CeeDee Lamb
2. Jordan Mason
3. George Kittle (if active)
4. Dak Prescott
5. Deebo Samuel Sr. (if active)
6. Jake Ferguson
7. Brock Purdy

Dallas Cowboys

Quarterback

Dak Prescott (CPT or FLEX)

Impatience has grown over Prescott, who hasn’t looked nearly as capable of carrying a DFS lineup as in prior years. Blame the front line, blame the lack of weaponry, or blame the man himself, but Prescott has cleared 20 DraftKings points just once here in 2024. (He did so six times last year.) And now he finds himself facing the daunting 49ers defense.

Of course, on a Showdown slate, that creates real opportunity! The narrative (matchup, recent history, etc.) should keep Prescott’s roster rate in check; I’m guessing more entrants choose to Captain CeeDee Lamb. Besides, we likely won’t need a massive, 30-point line to get what we need from Prescott. Given the lack of high-upside skill options on tonight’s slate, Prescott could lead the pack with just 20 DraftKings points.

Running Back

Rico Dowdle (FLEX)
Ezekiel Elliott (FLEX)
Dalvin Cook (FLEX)

Dowdle is the “leader” of this pitiful ground attack. The team sits dead last in rush efficiency, with Dowdle in the league’s bottom 10% in positive run rate. He’s only topped 65 scrimmage yards once all year. That said, he’s still the bell cow; Elliott hasn’t taken more than eight touches since Opening Day. For what it’s worth, Dowdle did take on 12 and 22 touches in neutral game scripts in Weeks 4 and 5.

It’s very possible Cook is immediately given the keys to this toothless run game. It’s equally possible he watches the entire game from the sideline. I expect his name value to lead to a bit more rostership than he deserves, but he’s essentially free, so you can build any type of roster around him.

Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb (CPT or FLEX)
Jalen Tolbert (FLEX)

He’s yet to reach 100 yards in a game, but he’s also yet to fall below 60, and he’s had 89+ three times. Lamb frequently starts hot, only for defenses to roll coverage his way as the game progresses. That will likely be the case until he’s flanked by more talent on the other side. Still, Lamb is talented enough to overcome doubles, provided he and his QB are on the same page. It feels like a matter of time until he erupts. The last time the 49ers faced a receiver of Lamb’s caliber was back in Week 2, when Justin Jefferson posted 133 yards and a touchdown.

Tolbert has taken a modest step forward in his third NFL season. Still, his target share, a modest 15%, hasn’t changed much since Brandin Cooks’ injury. He’s only topped four catches twice in six games. He makes much more sense in floor-based cash games than in GPPs, where upside is king.

Tight End

Jake Ferguson (CPT or FLEX)

I (almost) always wind up heavily exposed on Ferguson because of his touchdown upside. Last year, in his first season as the every-down TE, Ferguson drew 25 red-zone targets – good for third-best in the NFL and not far behind teammate CeeDee Lamb (32). Here in 2024, Ferguson has drawn just three, and he’s yet to find the end zone from anywhere.

I’m expecting both of those trends to reverse soon. The volume and opportunity are still there: over his four full games, he’s drawn a robust 21% of team targets. This air attack essentially revolves around Ferguson, Lamb (24%), and Jalen Tolbert (14%), so surprises are unlikely. Ferguson has cleared 40 yards in 9 of his last 11 full games, after all.

Under the Radar

Jalen Brooks (FLEX)

You’d never know it from the stat line (1 catch, 15 yards), but last week, Brooks played on 71% of the team’s snaps and drew six targets – two of them from inside the 10-yard line.

San Francisco 49ers

Quarterback

Brock Purdy (FLEX)

Purdy can’t be blamed much for his 2024 dip in productivity. He’s missing Christian McCaffrey and spent chunks of time without each of his top three wideouts. And on top of that, he’s throwing just about as efficiently as ever, sitting third in net yardage rate (factoring in sacks) and eighth in adjusted yardage rate (factoring in interceptions). Purdy is throwing downfield more than before, too: only Anthony Richardson has attempted more air yards per throw.

Cue the trombone effect, though. Purdy won’t have top wideout Brandon Aiyuk for the rest of the season, and he won’t have backup Jauan Jennings tonight. There’s even a chance he won’t have Deebo Samuel Sr. or George Kittle in the short term, either. With so little firepower available, he’ll lean heavily on rookies Ricky Pearsall and Jacob Cowing – when he’s not handing off relentlessly to Jordan Mason.

Overall, Purdy has cleared 20 DraftKings points in just 3 of 7 tries. Now, the lack of receivers erases upside, and the team’s red-zone struggles bode poorly for touchdowns. Pick and choose among his healthy receivers, but look elsewhere for differentiation tonight.

Running Back

Jordan Mason (CPT or FLEX)

Mason and CeeDee Lamb are the crown jewels of this slate, and it’s easy to see why. For one, many of the usual suspects on each side are shelved by injuries. It’s easy to see why: Mason dominates his backfield with Christian McCaffrey off the field like few others. Coach Kyle Shanahan believes in a bellcow back regardless of who’s available. Last year, McCaffrey claimed 77% of the team’s snaps; in 2024, Mason has taken on an identical 77%. Like McCaffrey, Mason gains consistently (73+ yards in five of his six games) and sees heavy use nearly the goal line (already 19 rushes from inside the 10-yard line).

The drawback, of course, is rostership, as Mason will be the linchpin of most Showdown lineups. That’s why it might pay even more to zag from the pack and fade Mason. His big, Showdown-winning games tend to come in comfortable 49er wins, and that’s anything but a given tonight. There’s a solid chance the snakebitten San Francisco offense struggles all night to move and score, leaving Mason with his typical 70-90 yards but little else. After all, he’s caught just 10 balls all year and wouldn’t be noticed as much in other game scripts.

Wide Receiver

Deebo Samuel Sr. (CPT or FLEX) – if active
Ricky Pearsall (FLEX)
Jacob Cowing (FLEX)
Chris Conley (FLEX)

Samuel, as usual, is as boom-or-bust as they come tonight. The electric playmaker has posted 19, 21, 10, 3, 24, and 0 DraftKings points thus far. Pneumonia cost him almost all of Week 7, and it’s landed him a Questionable tag for Sunday night.

It goes without saying that, if Samuel suits up, he’ll dominate the 49ers offense. Brandon Aiyuk is shelved, and so is backup Jauan Jennings. Target-hog tight end George Kittle may not even play tonight. And Samuel is a dual-threat workhorse who’s taken on 17, 12, 7, 6, 9, and 0 opportunities (targets + rushes). Still, consider roster rate – an active Samuel will likely draw heavy, heavy play – and ask yourself honestly how his risk fits into your Showdown build. He’s hard to Captain, given the in-game uncertainty, and it doesn’t help that this whole offense has much less bite than usual right now. Samuel sees strong usage, but it’s not exactly tournament-busting, and it won’t help much if the offense is stuck in quicksand.

Your GPP field will be all over Pearsall, Cowing, and Conley, who will provide dirt-cheap snaps and opportunities. Pearsall, a first-round rookie, will almost surely draw the heftiest roster numbers of the bunch. He drew five targets last week and looked like Aiyuk’s direct backup, so he should lead the pack in snaps. But Cowing, a slot specialist who ran a 4.38 at the Combine, could be the better play. He’s far less known, and the team seemed excited to involve him last week. He rewarded them with a 41-yard catch-and-run on a crucial fourth-quarter drive.

Tight End

George Kittle (CPT or FLEX)

Kittle doesn’t need injuries to make him a prime Captain option. Over the last four seasons, the future HOFer has drawn target shares of 19%, 17%, 19%, and now 20%. His role in the offense is deep-seated and crucial, and that rarely changes. Here in 2024, he’s posted at least 4 catches and 40 yards in each game thus far, and he’s already scored 5 touchdowns.

So, the volume is great, but does that really move the GPP needle? After all, who cares about a 4-40 baseline in a Showdown? Thankfully, Kittle boasts as much week-to-week upside as any fantasy tight end. He’s no catch-and-fall rumbler, that’s for sure. Among TEs, Kittle sits in the top 4% in air yardage, the top 23% in aDOT, and the top 9% in target rate on routes (and very low in yardage after the catch). In other words, the 49ers are sending him downfield and feeding him an Amon-Ra St. Brown-like diet of work. They’ve also sent him 7 targets from inside the 10-yard line already. For reference, Kittle’s career-high mark there is nine.

If Kittle is active tonight, he’s a fantastic zag at Captain. Much of the field will chase the volume of CeeDee Lamb or Jordan Mason; many won’t factor in Kittle’s upside.

Under the Radar

Ronnie Bell (FLEX)

For what it’s worth, Bell caught just six balls last year – but three of them went for red-zone touchdowns. Bell drew 24 snaps and ran 15 routes last week but saw only 2 targets. That wonky ratio could balance out tonight, which would make Bell an even shrewder zig than Ricky Pearsall or Jacob Cowing.

Kicker and Defense

Brandon Aubrey is always a fun and shrewd play. You get the best kicker on Earth, kicking for the league’s second-worst red zone offense. Aubrey, who’s hit 18 field goals of 50+ in 23 NFL games, is in play every time the Cowboys approach midfield. Coach Mike McCarthy has no problem leaning on Aubrey for offense.

Both defenses carry sneaky appeal. The Cowboys struggle to score, and the 49ers depth chart is running on fumes. Brock Purdy has already thrown seven interceptions and fumbled four times.

Player Chart

Note: this assumes that Deebo Samuel Sr. and George Kittle are playing. If these players are out, Ricky Pearsall, Jacob Cowing, and Chris Conley would all be elevated to Flex plays this week with Pear