DraftKings Showdown: Sunday Night, Week 5

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge is going to come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the Showdown decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

Advice in this article will pertain predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Theory

The Steelers are modest -2.5 home favorites in an injury-ravaged game, essentially a dead heat when we de-factor homefield. Vegas suggests only 43.5 points, but that’s come up from an opening 41.5. In other words: Vegas doesn’t seem to know what to expect tonight. The Cowboys could faceplant again with most of their defensive juice sidelined, while the bottom could theoretically fall out on Justin Fields any minute now.

With such a wild-card matchup on tap, it makes sense to target the usual suspects – CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, the quarterbacks – but to find ways to get unique. Lamb is so ball-dominant that he’ll be rostered just about everywhere, so factor that in. Conversely, many will ignore low-upside names like Jake Ferguson and Pat Freiermuth in their Captain slots, but either could catch a pair of touchdowns and drive a Showdown.

Injury Report

Dallas has been hit by injuries on both sides of the ball. Default No. 2 wideout Brandin Cooks is on injured reserve, which should streamline the team’s targets for the next few weeks. On defense, virtually the entire pass rush (Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence) is unavailable, and top cornerback Trevon Diggs is questionable tonight.

The Pittsburgh backfield is decimated by injuries: neither Jaylen Warren nor Cordarrelle Patterson will suit up tonight. That should set up Najee Harris (and Justin Fields) with a massive workload, regardless of game flow.

Captain Consideration

1. CeeDee Lamb
2. Justin Fields
3. George Pickens
4. Jake Ferguson
5. Najee Harris

Dallas Cowboys

Quarterback

Dak Prescott (CPT or FLEX)

Prescott has yet to produce up to the level we’ve expected here in 2024. He’s throwing as much as ever (37.3 attempts per game), but he’s needed every bit of that volume to register 11, 15, 33, and 17 DraftKings points. Last week, it took surgical efficiency (22 of 27 passing) and a pair of touchdowns just to score respectably. This isn’t the type of matchup to project more surgical efficiency. The track-meet Cowboys of the past half-decade aren’t here right now.

Running Back

Rico Dowdle (FLEX)
Ezekiel Elliott (FLEX)

Dowdle leads the backfield, but that’s only resulted in 9, 11, 11, and 12 touches thus far. And with Dowdle, there isn’t much hope for any peripheral numbers. He’s only drawn 12 targets on the year, and he’s yet to touch the ball inside the 5-yard line.

Elliott no longer brings much, at least much that’s tangible, to this or any backfield. Essentially running in quicksand, he’s gained just 117 yards through 4 games and has yet to register a broken tackle. At this point, it feels just as likely Deuce Vaughn will pop up and claim 8-10 productive touches as Elliott will.

Wide Receiver

CeeDee Lamb (CPT or FLEX)
Jalen Tolbert (FLEX)

Brandin Cooks went on injured reserve this week, but that likely won’t affect Lamb’s workload much. After all, there’s very little “up” left to go: Lamb has taken on 33% of team targets thus far, and 38% among wideouts, plus 6 rushes to boot. Like Dak Prescott, though, Lamb is also still awaiting his 2024 breakout game. Last week’s 23.6 DraftKings points were a great start, and it looks like a baseline tonight. He’ll see a heavy dose of the Steelers’ ho-hum cornerbacks, particularly slot specialist Beanie Bishop Jr.. Lamb has worked from the slot 56% of the time as the Cowboys have featured him desperately. There’s no safer Captain play tonight, so he’ll be widely rostered. But on a pared-down slate like this one, you won’t want to be caught without his production.

Tolbert has eased past (or at least even with) Cooks in the pecking order, so he looks like the biggest beneficiary tonight. But he’s also never drawn more than 13% of the team’s targets, topping 60 yards just once over 29 career games. He may be little more than a clear-out threat in this offense, and that’s not a profile that should climb much without Cooks. Thus, Tolbert looks a bit like fool’s gold: heavily rostered, but without the pedigree to suggest big value. He’s not exactly cheap at $8,400, and you likely wouldn’t benefit (or lose) much from a 4-catch, 65-yard type of game. Find ways to differentiate elsewhere… like…

Tight End

Jake Ferguson (CPT or FLEX)

…like Captaining Ferguson! There’s ample reason to believe he, not Tolbert, will benefit most from Cooks’ absence. Ferguson sat Week 2, then bounced back by claiming 24% of Dak Prescott’s targets over the last 2 games. He caught 13 of those targets, for 144 yards, and that average (6.5 for 72) looks like a baseline tonight. The Steelers have yet to be tested by an elite tight end here in 2024, but they struggled mightily against them last year. Their linebackers can be beaten badly up the seams and near the goal line.

And it’s in the red zone where Ferguson could win Showdowns tonight. In 2023, CeeDee Lamb led the planet in red zone targets with 32. Just 2 spots behind him, with 25 of his own, was teammate Ferguson. Yet somehow, Ferguson ended the year with just 5 touchdowns on 71 catches, one of the wonkier stat finishes at the position. A multi-touchdown game feels long overdue at this point, and it could surely happen while the offense is short-handed.

Under the Radar

KaVontae Turpin (FLEX)

Turpin doesn’t play much – just 13% of the snaps since the start of 2023. But he’s made the most of them, finding the end zone on 4 of his 17 receptions. If given 25-30 snaps tonight, he could easily bring value on this $4,500 salary – and with some uniqueness, too.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Quarterback

Justin Fields (CPT or FLEX)

Many of Fields’ warts from his Chicago days are still in place. He’s taking sacks on 8.4% of his dropbacks, and he’s already fumbled 4 times. That said, he’s also playing mostly with new coordinator Arthur Smith’s system, and he’s sustaining drives better than he ever did as a Bear.

And that’s key for Fields’ fantasy outlook – staying on the field. He showed last week what a shootout-type environment can do for his numbers. Forced to rally against the Colts, Fields threw for 312 yards and a touchdown, while running for 55 and 2 more scores. Obviously, the ground numbers are key here, but most of your opponents will be leaning entirely on them to project Fields tonight. If you’re one of the few who correctly projects another 44 throws + rushes, then he’ll pay off in your Captain slot, likely more than popular plays like CeeDee Lamb and Majee Harris.

Running Back

Najee Harris (CPT or FLEX)

With Jaylen Warren and Cordarrelle Patterson shelved, Harris should absolutely dominate this backfield tonight. Last week he took on 69% of the snaps, and that came with Patterson filling in for Warren. With only Aaron Shampklin to fight for opportunity, Harris should certainly see 20+ touches tonight. That kind of locked-in volume is huge for redraft and cash-game play, but in a Showdown setting, we’re looking for upside and uniqueness. And Harris offers neither this evening.

Long one of the more plodding lead backs in football, Harris has led this backfield for 3+ years that have felt like 6-8. He’s produced just 3.9 yards per rush and 6.2 per catch, both near the bottom of the league over that span. And he comes “fresh” off a 13-carry, 19-yard day against a Colts defense that had been gashed twice to open 2024. There’s always a chance he’ll catch 5-7 passes in a full-fledged shootout, but that’s his only real source of upside. He’s nothing special in the open field, nor in short yardage.

Wide Receiver

George Pickens (CPT or FLEX)
Calvin Austin (FLEX)

Pickens has finally reached a point where he dominates this receiving corps. He’s the only Steeler wideout with more than 10 targets; his 29 account for 28% of the team’s total and rank 21^st league-wide. Predictably, his aDOT has fallen a bit each year he’s been in the pros, but he still boasts an elite 9.8 yards per target. In other words, Pickens may be a better Captain play tonight than CeeDee Lamb. No, the Steelers probably won’t throw as often as the Cowboys will tonight. But Pickens’ efficiency always gives him a step up on the volume guys, so in a shootout, he’ll project as well as just about anyone. He also may not have to deal with top Dallas cornerback Trevon Diggs tonight.

Austin has long intrigued with his athleticism (a 99^th-percentile athleticism score in 2022), but he’s reached 75 yards just once in 21 career games. The good news is that that game happened just two weeks ago, on just four targets, showcasing his quick-strike ability. There’s ample room for Austin to secure a weekly 5-7 looks, as Pickens is the only other Steelers wideout with double-digit targets. For what it’s worth, Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson feasted in this matchup last week (23 receptions, 186 yards) working mostly underneath.

Tight End

Pat Freiermuth (FLEX)

Here’s a guy with a defined role. Freiermuth works primarily near the line of scrimmage, but he does well in the red zone, where he’s scored all 12 touchdowns of his NFL career. For our immediate purposes, we should note that he’s drawn a solid 19% of Field’s targets, including 22% in last week’s semi-shootout. There’s not much upside here, which hurts his Showdown outlook a bit. But if this game turns into a slugfest and swings under the expected total, Freiermuth could be a key differentiator.

Under the Radar

Aaron Shampkin (FLEX)

You could do worse than to take the $3,000 plunge on Shampklin scoring a short touchdown.

Kickers and Defenses

Brandon Aubrey is always on the Showdown radar. The world’s greatest kicker has banged home 48 of his 51 career field goals, including 16 of 17 from 50+ yards out. He’s now a cog in the offense: here in 2024, he’s accounted for 43 of the team’s 97 points. Part of that is due to the offense’s struggles in the red zone; scoring touchdowns a mediocre 56% of the time. Part of it, though, is because Aubrey is essentially three guaranteed points anytime the Cowboys cross midfield. Coach Mike McCarthy has no qualms attempting the 63-yarder at the end of the half.

The defenses also intrigue me tonight, somewhat. The Steelers are always in consideration, though their reputation precedes them a bit. They’re just 9^th in turnover rate and 14^th in sacks. No one wants much to do with a Cowboys defense missing Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence, but that offers some (limited) Showdown sleeper appeal. Justin Fields remains prone to sacks (10 through 4 games) and fumbles (4), and he posted a 3.1% interception rate as a Bear.

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