DraftKings Monday Showdown Week 19

Disclaimer:

NFL Showdown can be a fickle beast. These contests do not rely on median projections so much as leverage and uniqueness. Fading the highest-rostered plays can be a risky proposition. Typically, your edge will come by identifying the best low-rostered plays and finding clever ways to pair them with the juggernauts of the slate.

This article will have a heavy DraftKings lean simply because the decision-making process is more interesting, given the salary premium attached to the Captain spot. FanDuel's pricing is the same for both MVP and Flex spots. You will usually need the slate's top scorer at MVP, so FanDuel's strategy revolves around unique Flex builds.

The advice in this article pertains predominantly to tournament lineups and strategy. For cash lineups, build around median projections. For head-to-head contests, continue to lean into the median projections, but if two options project closely, give the nod to the lowest rostered player.

Game Scripting & Roster Construction

Vegas projects this game to be a close game, with the Vikings a 2.5-point favorite and a somewhat high-scoring game with a total of 47.5. The big question on everyone’s mind is what LA Rams team shows up this week. The team seems to be saying the right things, but there was a lot of emphasis on moving family members, pets, and personal belongings out for a lot of players as the team moved down to Arizona for the week due to the first in Southern California. There really are two ways to think about this game. The most likely scenario is that at the end of the day, these are human lives that are impacted, and this is a job for them. Yes, they’re highly paid. Yes, the job is something that most dream about, but 19 weeks into the season, it is human nature for the players to be distracted. That doesn’t mean they won’t give a full effort, but were they watching as much film this week? How did practice go, having to uproot your life, not knowing what world you would come back to? For the coaching staff, are they worried about having to take their kids out of school? All of this matters when the margins of winning a playoff game are so small.

The other scenario, which is more of a Disney movie, but we do see every now and then, is that a team rallies behind the issue and comes out and plays better. I’ve seen comparisons to the Saints' first game back in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina in 2006. However, that was over a year after Hurricane Katrina hit in 2005. The Saints were 3-13 in that 2005 season, and they had to play out of Houston. In a one-game scenario, anything can happen, and it would be impressive if the Rams were able to find a way to be competitive in this game.

This is a tricky slate because of Week 18, where the Rams benched their starters; we are seeing the fringe players a little bit higher priced than we normally would see them. Guys like Demarcus Robinson, TuTu Atwell, and Jordan Whittington are all about $1,000-$2,000 higher than they otherwise should be on a normal showdown slate.

Injury Roundup

Cam Akers was a late add to the injury report on Saturday with an illness, as he did not participate in practice. It seems like he will be fine, as Ty Chandler missed Friday’s practice with an illness but was a full participant on Saturday. If Akers were to miss, Aaron Jones would receive an upgrade, while Chandler would likely see additional touches.

Captain Considerations

1. Justin Jefferson
2. Jordan Addison
3. Cooper Kupp
4. Kyren Williams

Minnesota Showdown Players

Quarterback

Sam Darnold (FLEX)

What version of Sam Darnold are we going to get this week? Last week, in a must-win game, Darnold had the worst game of his season as he completed just 18 of 41 pass attempts for 166 yards. While last week’s matchup on paper was a good one against Detroit, they had their best defensive game of the season as Amik Robertson had a career game. This week, Darnold gets another favorable matchup against the Rams, who are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks compared to the Lions last week, who are one of the league’s best defenses. The Rams have a strong pass rush led by Jared Verse, but there are issues at the cornerback positions as Ahkello Witherspoon and Darious Williams have both struggled on the outside.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones (FLEX)
Cam Akers (FLEX)

The key to the Minnesota backfield is all about volume. This is a pass-first team, which gives the running backs a nice floor as Aaron Jones has averaged four receptions per game over his last three games, but at $8,000 ($12k captain), he just does not have the upside needed compared to other players on this slate to be a captain play. This is a running back who has topped 100 yards just once all season, as he only has two games with 20 or more carries, and while the receptions are nice, you want a running back who has more than five rushing touchdowns to be a captain play. Expect Jones to likely have 60-70 rushing yards, with three or four receptions.

Akers is intriguing as a cheap play on a slate that does not have much value. At $4,400, he’s been on the field for 30% of snaps in each of the last two games. Last week, he likely earned some additional playing time as he had 65 rushing yards on just six carries and was able to break a 58-yard run against the very good Lions' defense. Having at least eight touches in three of his last four games and four red zone opportunities over the last two games at least makes it intriguing as a value play.

Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson (CPT or FLEX)
Jordan Addison (CPT or FLEX)
Jailen Nailor (Low-End Flex)

In terms of pure upside, no player has a ceiling as high as Justin Jefferson. Jefferson has had a down year by his standards. What you’re chasing from Jefferson is the 130+ yards and multiple touchdowns. If he does that, which he has done twice this season, he has to be the captain for you to win anything. While the Rams’ numbers against wide receivers have largely indicated that this is a neutral matchup, the Rams don’t have real outside cornerbacks. This is a hodge-podge of a defense that forced 5’9’’ 180-pound Darious Williams and Ahkello Witherspoon both from the slot to the outside. In their first matchup, Jefferson had eight receptions for 115 yards as the number one outside receivers have torched this defense all season.

With Addison, you’re getting even more volatility than Jefferson, but at a much cheaper price. Going into this week, you know that if you’re starting Jefferson, you’re probably not going to have the optimal captain, but on the off-chance, he does have a 130-yard and a touchdown game, he’s a great pivot off of Justin Jefferson. The theory here is that the Rams have already seen how they struggled against Jefferson earlier this season. Therefore, they could just bracket cover Jefferson the entire game, and while you can’t completely take Jefferson out of the game, this would open up doors for Addison, who does have at least six targets in each of his last eight games and topped 50 yards in six of those eight games. He’s an excellent flex play in a Vikings stack.

Jalen Nailor is the type of player who has seen his role increase over the last two weeks, but he has largely done nothing all year outside of being on the field. Prior to the last two weeks, Nailor had not had more than two targets in eight straight games, but over the last two, he does have five and four targets, amassing 81 yards with a touchdown against Green Bay and 53 yards against Detroit. It’s interesting that both teams that he found success against were the second time that they met, which could have been forced to find a third option if they’re game planning to take away either Jefferson or Addison.

Tight Ends

T.J. Hockenson (Low-End FLEX)

The issue with Hockenson is that he’s a little too expensive at $5,600, and people are going to gravitate towards him because of the perceived upside in prior seasons. While he’s not a bad play if you’re stacking the Vikings and he fits your lineup, he’s not a priority play this week. The biggest issue for Hockenson is that he hasn’t scored a touchdown all season, as the Vikings are just looking elsewhere when it comes to the red zone. Hockenson is sixth in red zone targets behind Jefferson, Addison, Nailor, and both running backs. So, unless he scores a touchdown, it’s going to be difficult for him to reach value simply because he’s averaging just 38 yards per game over his last six games.

Under the Radar

Josh Oliver (FLEX)

The thinking for Oliver is you’re getting a player at $1,600 who, at the very least, is on the field for 50% of the plays. The tight end has not had much of a role in the last four weeks, but prior to then, he had 25 yards or more in five straight games.

Los Angeles Rams 

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford (FLEX)

Matthew Stafford has not shown the upside that we’ve seen in past seasons. Stafford has thrown for less than 200 yards in each of his last three games, and outside of a 44-42 shootout outlier performance, Stafford has not thrown for over 300 yards all season despite having a strong cast around him. He’s fine as a stack if you take a wide receiver as your captain, or even a run-back option in a 4 Vikings, 2 Rams stack, but he shouldn’t be a top priority this week for you as he just does not seem to be 100% healthy at this point for the 36-year-old who has had constant injury concerns throughout his career.

Running Backs

Kyren Williams (Captain or Flex)
Ronnie Rivers (FLEX)

No player on this slate has as high of touchdown equity as Kyren Williams. Williams leads the NFL in red zone opportunities with 79 on the season, while the next closest player was Saquon Barkley, who had 72. Williams went through a three-game stretch earlier this season where he did not score a touchdown, but besides that, he has scored at least one touchdown in 13 of his 14 games. We’ve also seen a volume increase for Kyren, as he has at least 24 touches in three of his last four games. If he gets 24+ touches this week, he’s going to have a high likelihood of being the winning captain. In their first matchup, Williams had 97 rushing yards while also adding 19 receiving yards and a touchdown. The price is expensive at $10,400 for flex and $15,600, but if he scores a touchdown, he should at least hit the flex floor, and if he scores multiple he could be a winning captain.

With no Blake Corum, Ronnie Rivers could see some action this week. If Williams were to get hurt, or even if the game script turned to more of a passing approach, at $2,000, you’re getting a player who could have a massive role. Rivers would work well with a Vikings stack, as he should see more work if the game gets out of hand. He’s the better receiving back of the two, even though Kyren is still very good as a receiver.

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp (CPT or FLEX)
Puka Nacua (Fade)

This is going to be controversial. If you’re familiar with any of my writing, you know that I’m not afraid to be wrong, but what I’m not going to do is just regurgitate all the information that other sites are putting out here. It’s unique, and a lot of the time, it works, but sometimes it can fail horrendously.

Puka Nacua is going to be the highest-rostered player on this slate, both at the captain and the flex positions. Nacua has been great, as he has 90 yards or more in three of his last four games and has topped 100 yards five times this year. Then you factor in that the Vikings have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, and it is going to seem like a no-brainer. One of the cases against Nacua has been the lack of touchdown upside. Having a high probability of topping 90 yards is great, but to justify the $15,900 price point for a captain spot or even a $10,600 flex spot, you need better touchdown numbers than the three receiving touchdowns that Nacua has this season.

For Cooper Kupp, no one is going to want to play him, and for good reason. Kupp has just three targets in each of his last three games as the Rams have won in low-scoring games, scoring just 14 points per game over the last three. The thinking here is there are two scenarios where Kupp could rebound and pay off tremendously. The first scenario is that Kupp was injured. The week off should help the receiver get healthy.

The overall issue is that most of the receivers who have had success against the Vikings have been in the slot. Deebo Samuel Sr., Jayden Reed, Garrett Wilson pre-Davante Adams trade, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Darnell Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud III all had big games against this defense. While Nacua did have 106 yards on seven receptions in their first meeting earlier this season, it was Kupp who found the end-zone. Simply put, for the price, I’m personally spending up to Jefferson and or Kyren Williams and trying to create leverage against Nacua this week.

Tight End

Tyler Higbee (Flex)
Coming back from a torn ACL, Tyler Higbee showed us everything we needed to see in Week 18 to have hope that he could make an impact in the playoffs. Higbee has been back for just three games but has caught a touchdown in two of them and last week had seven targets. While it is hard to estimate how it will carry over once their regular starters are back on the field, it is a good sign that the Rams made the concerted effort to start Higbee to get him the reps in hopes that he will have an impact on this postseason. With the Rams getting minimal production out of Colby Parkinson and Davis Allen, Higbee should have an opportunity to see a significant snap increase this week.

Under the Radar

Demarcus Robinson (Low-End Flex)

There’s not much to say about Robinson other than he’s on the field for a majority of the plays for Los Angeles. Robinson has been on the field for at least 60% of the snaps in every game this season and does have 12 red zone targets, which is just five less than Nacua.

Kickers and Defenses

There are a number of ways this game could go this week. We could see a shootout game, but we could also see a low-scoring game similar to how the Rams have played their last three games with their starters, which were field goal and ball control type games as they ended 12-6, 19-9, and 13-9. Joshua Karty has been great for the Rams over the second half of the season after some early season struggles, as the kicker has made 13 field goals in a row over the last five games. On the other side, Will Reichard has struggled from 50+ as of late, as he has made just four of his last seven from distance, which likely will cause the Vikings to be more aggressive on fourth down, limiting his upside.

Neither defense is a great play this week. If you wanted to play Minnesota due to the potential sack upside, they’re a team that can apply pressure amongst the best in the NFL, as they are tied for the fourth-most sacks this season and have 24 interceptions this season.