Apologies for this coming out later on Saturday than normal. I needed to re-write this multiple times due to the critical injuries that were announced on Saturday and wanted to ensure that the information here was as current as possible.
Slate Overview- Week 17 Thoughts
Week 17 is one of the worst slates of the year. It is only an eight-game slate, but for the most part, there are seven teams that are mostly unplayable, either due to injury or just a lack of production. Miami, Cleveland, New Orleans, New York Giants, Dallas, and Jacksonville are all mostly unplayable. They may have one player who is fantasy-relevant on them, but it greatly limits the player pool with his many players who are on teams that no one has an interest in playing.
With a narrow field like this week, it’s critical that you pay attention to percent rostered projections. There are players who are going to get extremely popular that likely shouldn’t, while there could be some players on those seven teams that are still fantasy-relevant that people have completely written off because of how bad those teams actually are. Overall, this is a pretty terrible slate in general, but there are still some massive prize pools on this slate that could be won, including a $2.25M Millionaire Maker that looks like it could have a massive overlay this week.
Key Injuries for Week 17
- Tua Tagovailoa is doubtful for this week. Without Tua, the Dolphins are going to start Tyler Huntley. Huntley started the year with Cleveland before being cut so the Browns could keep Dorian Thompson-Robinson as their third quarterback; now, the game will feature the two facing off in one of the lowest projected totals of the week.
- Tony Pollard has been ruled out for the Titans. Tyjae Spears will get the start, which is a long-awaited start for fantasy players. He should be in a great matchup against the Jaguars this week.
- Chuba Hubbard is out for the season due to a calf/knee injury. The Panthers are going to give Raheem Blackshear the first look, but Mike Boone is also expected to get some snaps here this week. At minimum price, Blackshear is somewhat intriguing on this slate.
- Joe Flacco will start for the Colts, as Anthony Richardson has been ruled out. Flacco gives a significant upgrade to the receivers on the Colts, especially Josh Downs.
- Jalen Hurts is out for the Eagles. While logic would tell you that this would hurt the offense with Kenny Pickett starting, it likely is only going to hurt the auxiliary players as Pickett locked onto both A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith this past week, only throwing to them. It also should help Saquon Barkley’s touchdown equity as he does not have to worry about Hurts taking the one-yard touchdowns from him.
- CeeDee Lamb is out for the season with a shoulder injury. There’s not a direct beneficiary to the Cowboys offense here, but Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson should see a little bit more work this week.
- David Njoku has been ruled out for Cleveland. Jordan Akins is at least interesting in how often Dorian Thompson-Robinson targets his tight ends.
- Alvin Kamara has been ruled out for Week 17. Kendre Miller will once again get the start for New Orleans. He did not look great in a lopsided game script against Green Bay, but he will get another shot this week.
Stacks
Bryce Young, Adam Thielen, Mike Evans
Bryce Young is going underlooked on this slate at just 5% and is rostered at Thielen at just 9%. Most people are going to look at the Baker Mayfield side of this stack instead of Young, as Young is perceived as slightly overpriced at $5,600 compared to what he has been for most of the year. However, his play over the last several weeks has improved tremendously. In Week 13, these two teams met, and Young threw for 298 yards and a touchdown while also running for a touchdown. Thielen, meanwhile, has 99 yards or more in two of his last four games, one of which came against this putrid Buccaneers secondary. Tampa Bay has allowed the second-most fantasy points all season to opposing quarterbacks, with Jacksonville only allowing more. At $5,600, we really need at least 20 points from Young, which is something that seven quarterbacks have done against the Buccaneers this season, and with 2023 All-Pro Antoine Winfield Jr out again this week, the secondary should be susceptible to giving up a big game.
You could really take either Thielen or Jalen Coker in this game, but Thielen wins out just slightly if he doesn’t get to his ceiling game of 100+ yards; he’s much less likely to have the floor of a 0-point performance like Jalen Coker could have on any given week. With the injury to Chuba Hubbard, the Panthers are going to throw much more than what we’ve seen in prior weeks, and Thielen should get back to seeing 10+ targets, which is something we saw in both Week 14 and 15.
For Mike Evans, this is entirely a narrative for him at this point. He needs 92 yards per game over the next two weeks to keep his 1,000-yard streak alive. Evans has had 1,000 yards in every one of his 10 years as an NFL player. It’s something that’s incredibly important to him, the team, and the fans, and they’re going to look to get him the ball early and often this week. Evans torched the Panthers in their first meeting, as he had eight receptions for 116 yards and a touchdown. He’s going to be extremely popular as he’s one of the few receivers on this slate with slate-breaking upside and is very affordable at $7,500.
Josh Allen, Khalil Shakir, Davante Adams
There is a lot of motivation this week for Josh Allen. With a big game, Josh Allen can not only secure the Bills the number two seed but also likely win the MVP. Allen gets a $1.5M bonus if he wins an MVP, which, based on Lamar Jackson’s big performance on Christmas, is something that Allen will get a chance to answer. There’s not much to say about Allen’s upside as he has an upside that no one on this slate can come close to when he hits it, as he has a 44 and 54-point game in two of his last three games. The Jets started the year strong defensively, and while their overall numbers are still above average, they’ve allowed 290 passing yards or more in two of their last three games to Mac Jones and Tua Tagovailoa, who threw for 331 and multiple touchdowns. This is a defense that has struggled all season with quarterbacks running. C.J. Stroud ran for 59 yards, Drake Maye ran for 46, Will Levis ran for 38, and Anthony Richardson ran for 32 and 2 touchdowns.
Picking a wide receiver to pair Allen with is always difficult. There really are four options between Mack Holins, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Dalton Kincaid. The reason for Shakir here is simply because of the most predictable targets. Hollins and Coleman both can break a big play at any point, but Shakir is the number-one receiver in this offense despite his recent struggles. He is projected to be the highest rostered of the group, but on an eight-game slate, taking a receiver who is 12% is still low.
For Davante Adams, this is another narrative as we head into Week 17. Davante Adams has caught Aaron Rodgers's 200th and 300th passing touchdowns. They’re going to do everything that the Jets can do in order to get the duo his 500th with seemingly very little else to play for. Adams has been dominant lately, as he has had five touchdowns in his last four games and has been averaging 110 yards per game over that time, with no game less than 66 yards. At just 13%, this combination of the three players will be expensive, primarily due to Josh Allen being at $8,500, but it can be doable this week.
Joe Flacco, Josh Downs, Malik Nabers
The entire trajectory of the Colts should improve heading into Week 17. With playoff aspirations still alive, the Colts are turning to Joe Flacco to get them a much-needed win against the Giants this week. When Flacco is playing, Josh Downs becomes an immediate target. Downs has at least 60 yards in every game that Flacco has played this season, as he has been the best wide receiver on the team for most of the season. Flacco has upside, but he hasn’t shown the magic that we saw in Cleveland, leading them to the playoffs last season. He has just one 300-yard game in the six games that he has played and has been turnover-prone, throwing five interceptions with a 3% interception rate.
For Nabers, the volume continues to be high; the issue is that the quarterback play has been abysmal. Nabers has at least 10 targets in seven of his last eight games but is catching just 61% of the passes that are targeted his way. The quarterback play has greatly limited his upside, as the explosive receiver that we saw early this season is gone, and now we have a player who is averaging just 10.0 yards per catch and just four touchdowns on the year. What this has done is that it has created an opportunity. Nabers is just $6,600 this week, which is the cheapest he has been in a while, and at that price to only be rostered by about 15% because of that fear of the upside not being there presents itself on the off-chance that the ceiling game does come. If he’s able to leverage those targets that he is seeing and break a long play behind this shaky Colts defense, he has a high likelihood of being on a winning roster this week.
Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson, Dontayvion Wicks
Everything is at stake for the Vikings, as they could end up as the number one seed if they win out, as they have a better record than the Lions if they could beat them in Week 18. If they lose this game, the Lions will clinch the number one seed with a win over the 49ers on Monday, as they hold the tiebreaker over the Vikings. Darnold is projected to be the highest-rostered quarterback. Darnold has been extremely consistent this season, throwing for 230 yards or more in 10 straight games. However, recently, we have seen more of an upside from Darnold as he has two 300+ yard performances in his last five games.
No team is more frustrating than the Packers when it comes to wide receivers. With Christian Watson looking like he is going to miss this week, that opens the door up for Dontayvion Wicks to see more of a role along with Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs. Wicks’ two biggest snap games have been when Watson was either out or last week when he left the game early. At $3,900, Wicks saw seven targets last week but was unable to take advantage of it as he had just 13 yards. However, he was able to find the end zone on a one-yard touchdown. He’s cheap enough, while still showing an upside last year as a starter, that he could be a player who could save you money. You can get Wicks and Jefferson for a combined $12,200, which is extremely affordable.
QUARTERBACK
None. This week, it’s critical that you stack your quarterback. Other players such as Mason Rudolph, Baker Mayfield, Aidan O’Connell, and Mac Jones will be popular, but they’re not players on my radar this week.
Running Back
Tyjae Spears- $5,400- 34%
With no Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears is going to be the most popular player in the running back position. The matchup is a tremendous one, as Jacksonville is allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs. While Spears has struggled as a running back, averaging just 3.4 yards per carry this season, he has also been a big factor as a receiver. In a limited role, he’s caught 27 passes this season, including nine in his last two games. There’s a risk here, and he could very easily be a fade candidate given his 34% roster percentage and that he has struggled at times in his limited role. There’s a hope that his usage efficiency improves as he has more touches this week, but that’s far from guaranteed.
Bucky Irving- $6,700- 25%
Taking a running back against the Panthers is almost a system play at this point. Carolina has allowed 141 yards rushing yards to opposing running backs this season, which is 24 more yards than the second-worst team this year. Six of the last seven running backs that they’ve faced have run for over 100 yards against this defense. They simply do not have NFL talent at this point in their front seven. They’re missing three of their top four linebackers and have had to pull multiple players off of the practice squad just to field a roster. Irving has been dominant for the Buccaneers as he has had two 100-yard performances over his last four games, including a 152 rushing-yard game against the Panthers in Week 13.
Tyrone Tracy Jr.- $5,800- 8%
Tracy was cleared from the injury report after having an ankle injury. Facing a Colts defense that has struggled against opposing running backs all season could have the Giants looking to their rookie running back, who has at least four receptions in three of his last five games and has scored a touchdown in four of his last six. The Colts have given up big games to running backs similar to Tyrone Tracy Jr., as Tank Bigsby and Tyjae Spears both had huge games against the Colts this week.
Jonathan Taylor- $7,900- 25%
In terms of volume, Jonathan Taylor is one of the most consistent volume running backs in the NFL. Taylor has at least 20 carries in five of his last six games while topping 100 yards in three of those games. If there’s a concern for Taylor, it has been his lack of pass-catching ability, but that should greatly improve this week as Joe Flacco takes over at quarterback and will be more willing to check the ball down to Taylor instead of just taking off and running like Anthony Richardson has become accustomed to doing. The matchup is a great one for Taylor. The Giants are allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. They were shredded by Bijan Robinson last week, who had 24.3 DraftKings points as he scored two touchdowns.
Raheem Blackshear- $4,000- 5%
It’s largely assumed that Raheem Blackshear is going to split time with Mike Boone to the point that neither is going to be viable for GPP. However, facing one of the league’s best-run defenses in Tampa Bay greatly leads to a Blackshear-type game. Blackshear is a more than capable receiver, as he has a 15% target rate in 2022/2023 with the Panthers. The way for the Panthers to have any success with a running back is as a receiver. If Blackshear can catch 4 to 5 passes this week, it is extremely likely that he could be GPP viable at just $4,000. The other benefit that Blackshear has is that he’s younger. Boone is a veteran who, at 29 years old, we know who he is at this point, while Blackshear, at just 26, the Panthers are likely going to look at him as they try to evaluate their future roster.
Wide Receiver
As a reminder, these are receivers who are not in the stacking section. Most of the top-end receivers are going to be listed in stacks; these are more under-the-radar type receivers. Refer to the chart at the bottom of this article to reference the quality of each play.
Brian Thomas Jr..- $6,800- 30%
Normally, when a player is 30% rostered, we take a hard look at whether we want to play them or just fade them. Thomas, at $6,800, is a play this week. While the Titans pass defense is a strength, Thomas is $700-$1,000 too cheap this week. Thomas has 35 or more DraftKings points in each of his last two games and at least 16 in four straight. At $6,800, even if he’s able to just get 16 DraftKings points, that’s still 2.4x his salary with massive upside. As Christian Kirk, Gabe Davis, and Evan Engram are all out for the season, Thomas should continue to see a very high workload once again this week.
Garrett Wilson, $6,100- 9%
Garrett Wilson is a good pivot off of the more popular Davante Adams this week. For the Jets, they’re going to need to throw the ball to keep up with the Bills offense in a game that they’re 10 point underdogs. Wilson publicly came out and expressed his frustration last week as he has not topped 60 receiving yards in each of his last two games. Wilson had 10 targets in both Weeks 13 and 14, but his volume fell off last week to just an average of 6.5 targets per game over the last two weeks. There have been some questions about Garrett Wilson’s future with the team, but at the moment, his trade value is quite low, and a big game could help improve that. At $6,100, this is a talented receiver who certainly has the upside to have a 100+ yard game with multiple touchdowns.
Devonta Smith- $5,800- 5%
Devonta Smith is going completely overlooked this week because of the Jalen Hurts injury. Last week, we saw Kenny Pickett only complete passes to A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith. In a difficult matchup last week against the Commanders, Smith was targeted eight times for 51 yards. This week, Daron Bland is going to be shadowing A.J. Brown for most of the game. This should open the door for a significant effort to get Devonta Smith involved this week.
Brandin Cooks- $4,600- 2%
How are the Cowboys going to move the ball this week? With CeeDee Lamb placed on IR and facing one of the best-run defenses in the NFL, they’re going to need to at least try to throw the ball against the Eagles' defense this week. Cooks has had an abysmal season, but he’s the only receiver who had over 50% of snaps last week, as Jalen Tolbert is dealing with a finger issue that kept him to just 28% of the snaps. If Tolbert is active, he’s at least intriguing as a second option in Dallas, as he is also too cheap at just $4,100.
High Upside Cheap Receivers-
Keon Coleman-$4,500 -1%
Jalen Coker-$4,300 - 4%
Michael Pittman Jr- $4,700- 12%
Elijah Moore- $4,300- 3%
Tight End
Brock Bowers- $6,700-20%
On a short week, there are fewer players who can provide their ceiling games and catch up to some of the elite talent. On a 12-13 game slate, the odds of a cheap tight end catching multiple touchdowns or breaking a long play are much higher than on a slate where there are only eight games. Therefore, the advantage that you should get with Brock Bowers compared to the rest of the position is significant this week. Last week, he had a disappointing game where he only had 11 receptions for 99 yards. Bowers has 90 yards or more in three of his last four games with Aidan O’Connell playing and has done so in four of his six games this season. He’s expensive, but you can find ways to afford him with value at the running back and wide receiver positions. You could also play Brock Bowers at the flex position this week, as based on his price, he has more upside than a lot of the guys at similar price points.
Jordan Akins- $2,700- 2%
We mentioned it last week, but looking at Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s history, about 40% of his yards have gone to tight ends. Last week, David Njoku had 42% of the team’s yards. With Cedric Tillman and David Njoku both out, Jordan Akins should see a significant increase in his role. At just $2,700, he’s cheap enough that if the trend from Thompson-Robinson breaks, he still should have some role that won’t kill your lineups. However, if Thompson-Robinson continues to stare down tight ends, Akins is going to have a massive day at his cheap price.
Chig Okonkwo- $3,600- 10%
With Mason Rudolph taking over for the Titans, Okonkwo has seen his role massively increase. Okonkwo has 17 receptions over the last two games, averaging 70 receiving yards and at least 10 targets in both games, as his volume has come at the expense of Calvin Ridley, who has seen his target share fall off a cliff the last two weeks. Facing a Jaguars defense that has been one of the worst pass defenses all season, this should be a game that if Okonkwo can again see 10+ targets, he’s going to be one of the best value players on this slate.
