Slate Overview- Week 15 Thoughts
While this slate is a 12-game slate, it feels more like a seven or eight-game slate this week. Despite being great actual football games, especially at the 4 PM start times, there are a lot of teams on this slate that may only have one or zero GPP-relevant players. Especially at the running back position this week as while there are some great plays at the top, it is going to be somewhat narrow when it comes to building out a roster as teams like Washington, Cleveland, New England, Kansas City, Jacksonville, New York Jets, New York Giants, Denver, and Los Angeles Chargers all have running back situations that we largely want to avoid. Meanwhile, there are other teams where their running backs are just in horrendous matchups, such as Pittsburgh and Buffalo. This is going to concentrate rosters to very similar builds with people targeting a combination of six to eight running backs and therefore the players at the quarterback and wide receiver positions are going to be similar due to the salary ranges that people are going to be boxed in to work off of.
So, how do we approach this for this week? Look at the roster percentage on Footballguys to determine if there are any of the lower-rostered running backs that you’re comfortable taking in Week 15. If there are, great, problem is somewhat solved as you can create a different lineup build assuming that player is in a different price range than the popular running backs. If they are in the same price range, you likely are not helping yourself other than just creating uniqueness at that one position.
Another way to create a different lineup build is to take four wide receivers and take just two of those running backs. This is something that you should be doing most weeks anyway, given the PPR setup on DraftKings, but plenty of people still take three running backs as if they are playing a cash game or their local fantasy football league. Taking two tight ends is possible on this slate, but not really all that advisable as there are not the elite plays at the tight end position that we’ve seen on other slates recently.
Finally, be willing to take risks. Taking a low-priced tight end, or a wide receiver under $4k can pay off tremendously if it means you can fit a Ja’marr Chase or Nico Collins in your lineup and those players have their ceiling game. Football is a game of randomness and variance at times and while projections and optimizers will help you build better lineups over the long-run, there’s often very little difference between players who are within 1-2 points of each other from a projection standpoint.
Key Injuries for Week 15
- George Pickens has once again been ruled out this week. Pickens was out last week, and the receiving group was largely a mess. No player had more than three receptions, and no player had more than five targets, including Jaylen Warren. If there’s a player who could become interesting this week, it would be Scotty Miller, who is minimum priced at $3,000. Miller saw 52% of the snaps last week after being active for just twice since Week 8. Miller has shown that he can be a deep threat throughout his career, dating back to his rookie season in 2019. He’s a deep-shot punt play, but if he catches a long touchdown at the minimum price, he could reach GPP value.
- Cedric Tillman is out this week with a concussion, while David Njoku looks like he’s going to miss as well but is still questionable. Jerry Jeudy at $6,200 is once again going to be popular on this slate, but Jordan Akins at just $2,700 could be intriguing. He’s a high-risk tight end, but the Browns in Kevin Stefanski’s scheme have heavily utilized the tight ends throughout his tenure, as evidenced by Njoku having 16 receptions over his last two games.
- Breece Hall is questionable this week. It looks like he’s going to give it a go, but the expectations need to be limited here. The Jets are in talent evaluation mode at this point, and giving both Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis snaps for the 3-10 Jets seems likely especially with Hall being less than 100%.
- Evan Engram was ruled out with a shoulder injury. The Jaguars’ passing attack is completely decimated, with just Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, and Travis Etienne Jr. as primary receivers. Thomas is the guy who is going to get the biggest boost as Etienne doesn’t have enough touches as a running back to trust; while Washington had 12 targets two weeks ago, he had just two targets last week.
- Bucky Irving looks like he’s going to miss this week. Rachaad White should be in a great spot this week at just $5,800 against a Chargers run defense that has been struggling, as they’ve allowed 100 yards or more in two of the last three games.
- Noah Brown is out this week. The good news for the Commanders is that they could get Jamison Crowder back this week after the receiver has missed the last ten games. Dyami Brown is likely to be a player to target coming off of a five-target game last week, while Terry McLaurin certainly should see an upgrade as well.
- Derek Carr is doubtful with a hand injury and concussion. If he misses, Jake Haener is going to get the start. This likely just completely kills this offensive upside this week, as Haener is completing just 48% of his passes this season.
- Drew Lock is doubtful with a foot injury. Tommy DeVito will get the start this week. DeVito has thrown for over 200 yards just once in his career in his seven starts. This largely
- Tony Pollard is questionable this week with an ankle injury after not practicing all week. If he were to miss, Tyjae Spears would be one of the best value plays on this slate against the Bengals’ defense. It seems likely that Pollard is going to play as he hasn’t practiced for most of the season, but he has played every game this year.
Stacks
Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Calvin Ridley
The high-end quarterbacks are going overlooked this week. At $7,300, Joe Burrow is underpriced compared to some of the more expensive options, but he’s been amongst the most consistent players in the NFL. Burrow has at least 25 DraftKings points in five straight games while topping 30 in three of those five games. Benefitting from Joe Burrow’s hot streak has been Ja’Marr Chase, who has emerged as the best wide receiver in football over the second half of the season. Chase has 15 touchdowns this season, including eight touchdowns over his last four games. He has ten or more targets in five of his last six games, including an 18-target performance last week. He’s expensive at $8,400, but in terms of upside, there is no player on this slate that has as much upside as Chase, who has three games with 44 DraftKings points or more, including a 58.4 performance in Week 11.
The Titans are quick to abandon the run the moment they fall behind. Over his last seven games, Tony Pollard has either 20 carries or more or less than ten carries. If the Bengals’ passing offense gets out to an early lead, we could see a heavy usage of the Titans’ passing game. The Bengals secondary is a complete mess, especially at safety as Geno Stone and Vonn Bell have been two of the worst safeties in coverage this season. Cincinnati has allowed eight wide receivers to top 70 yards in their last seven games. Ridley has just three touchdowns all season, which has depressed his price to $5,900, but if the Titans have any chance to keep up with a high-powered Bengals offense, it will need to be because of Ridley.
Jameis Winston, Jerry Jeudy, Travis Kelce
The Chiefs boast the league’s best defense, but we’ve seen that Jameis Winston is largely matchup-proof proof, as his best game of the season came against a very good Broncos secondary. The Browns have run for the third-fewest rushing yards this season and are facing the league’s best run defense. This ultimately means that the Browns are going to need to come up with a pass-heavy approach to have any success to stay competitive against Patrick Mahomes II and the Chiefs. Jerry Jeudy is the only reliable receiver that the Browns have at the moment. Elijah Moore is a slot receiver who is running tight end routes as he’s averaging just 9.1 yards per catch. Jeudy is the downfield threat who has at least 14 DraftKings points in each of his last four games and has topped 29 in two of his last four games.
For Travis Kelce, the touchdowns simply don’t match the red zone targets. Kelce has 21 red zone opportunities this season, which leads all tight ends. However, he has just two touchdowns all year compared to players like George Kittle (8), Cade Otton (4), and Tucker Kraft (6), all of who have fewer red zone targets than Kelce. The Browns have issues against tight ends. Since Week 8, Cleveland has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends as they desperately miss Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who suffered a career-threatening neck injury. Safety Juan Thornhill is facing his former team for the first time and has completely fallen off since joining Cleveland, which the Chiefs could attack the player who played for Kansas City for four seasons.
Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle, Nico Collins
Over the last three weeks, Tua Tagovailoa has quietly been one of the best passers in the NFL. He’s averaging 338 passing yards per game and 2.7 touchdowns per game. At just $6,100 and going underlooked at just 3% rostered. People don’t love playing Tagovailoa for a number of reasons. He doesn’t run, has an injury history, and had some early-season struggles. However, the path for Miami this week is to have a big passing day against Houston. The Dolphins have not been able to run the ball, as De’Von Achane is averaging just 2.25 yards per carry over the last three weeks. Meanwhile, Houston’s pass defense has allowed 278 yards to Will Levis and 354 yards to Cooper Rush over the last three games, with Mac Jones looking capable of throwing for 235 yards and two touchdowns last week.
The receiver you should target is Jaylen Waddle this week. Waddle had nine receptions for 99 yards last week and eight receptions for 144 yards and a touchdown in Week 12. He got off to an incredibly slow start to this season, which has kept his price affordable at just $5,700. Waddle should have a favorable matchup with the Dolphins this week, as Tyreek Hill is going to be shadowed by Derek Stingley Jr. The Texans have issues at safety as rookie Calen Bullock has been a liability in pass coverage, and if there’s an extra focus on stopping Hill, this could open the door for Waddle to have a breakout performance.
Nico Collins is starting to look like the receiver he was prior to his injury earlier this season. Over the last two weeks, Collins has at least 90 yards in both games and last week; he had 119 yards on eight receptions. This is the fourth time that Collins has topped 100 yards this year. We’ve talked about C.J. Stroud being a much better quarterback at home for most of the year, and with the Texans taking on a Miami defense that was exposed last week, allowing 339 passing yards to Aaron Rodgers, which was his first 300-yard performance since 2021. While Jalen Ramsey has been good this season, the safeties for the Dolphins have been an issue as Jordan Poyer is having the worst season of his career at age 33, while Jevon Holland has seen a significant decline after a tremendous 2023.
QUARTERBACK
Josh Allen- $8,500- 3%
It’s surprising that Josh Allen is only trending to be rostered in about 3% of lineups this week after a 54.88 performance. The price is expensive at $8,500, which is why he’s trending to be only 3% rostered, but it seems unlikely that the Bills will have success running the ball this week. Detroit boasts one of the league’s best defenses overall, but especially when it comes to stopping opposing running backs. No running back has topped 100 yards against Detroit, and only one running back has topped 50 yards over the last five games. This is projected to be the highest-scoring game of the week with a 54.5 total, and it seems likely that for the Bills to have success this week, it’s going to need to be with both the arms and legs of Josh Allen. Allen has run for a touchdown in each of his last four games.
Aaron Rodgers- $5,400- 4%
This is a little bit of a narrative this week. Rodgers seemingly knows that he is playing for his future over the next four games. Whether it is in New York or elsewhere, if Rodgers wants to play next season, he’s going to need to finish the season strong to convince a team that he can still play at 40 years old. Last week, Rodgers looked great, throwing for 339 yards and a touchdown. This week, Rodgers gets to face Jacksonville, which has allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. The Jaguars have allowed four 300-yard games this season, including a 359-yard three-touchdown performance to the 39-year-old Joe Flacco. With Breece Hall less than 100%, and with neither Braelon Allen nor Isaiah Davis looking overly impressive, the Jets should take a pass-heavy approach in Week 15. Rodgers is just $100 more than Bryce Young, who, at the moment, is going to be more popular than Rodgers. Trusting Rodgers, Garrett Wilson, and Davante Adams seems like a better play this week.
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Kyler Murray-$6,000- 15%
Kyler Murray is projected to be the highest rostered quarterback this week at 15%. As a passer, Murray has been good recently, throwing for 250 yards or more in five of his last six games. The problem is that while Murray has been throwing the ball more, he’s been running the ball less, which is where he gets a significant amount of his value from. Murray has run the ball for more than 25 yards just once over the last six games and is averaging just 3.7 carries per game. If you’re getting a non-mobile Kyler Murray who is going to be 15% rostered, it makes no sense when Tua Tagovailoa is just $100 more and 5x less rostered. The matchup is good against New England, but it also could limit his rushing upside, given the lack of offensive threat that the Patriots bring in this game.
Running Back
Rico Dowdle- $6,100- 18%
Both Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard are going to be two of the most popular running backs on this slate. Hubbard will likely exceed 30% rostered. While both players are good plays, taking both players in the same lineup is normally a bad idea, as running backs in the same game are often negatively correlated if one running back has 20 carries, it takes a significant amount of time off the clock and shortens the game. The reason that Dowdle is preferred here is just the matchup. Carolina is allowing 139 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, which is 21 more yards than the next closest team. Even worse is that starting linebacker Trevin Wallace will miss this week, and their other starting linebacker is questionable because of a hamstring injury. This is a team that was already without their two best defensive players, as linebacker Shaq Thompson and Derrick Brown lost for the season. Dowdle has over 100 yards per game in each of his last two weeks and should be in a spot where he could easily get there once again, as CeeDee Lamb is going to be dealing with Jaycee Horn for most of the game.
Chuba Hubbard- $6,500- 37%
Carolina is favored for the first time in 33 games this week. Hubbard is in a great spot this week based on his price and matchup, but the issue is that currently, he’s projected to be rostered by 37% of lineups. Hubbard and the Panthers have had a brutal stretch of opponents the last three weeks when it comes to stopping the run, as Kansas City and Philadelphia are two of the best run-stopping units in the NFL, while Tampa Bay is also an above-average unit. Hubbard is the type of player who is good enough to exploit great matchups but struggles in bad matchups. Back in Week 9 and 10, Hubbard faced New Orleans and New York Giants and dominated both games as he had 21 and 28 DraftKings points in those two matchups. Dallas has allowed three running backs over the last five games to top 20 DraftKings points. There is risk here simply because you’re putting a lot of faith in Carolina’s offense for a running back who is going to be so highly rostered. He’s a better cash game play than a GPP play, but he’s a piece of your lineup that likely won’t kill you but likely won’t be a reason you’re winning the GPP, either.
Derrick Henry- 8,300- 17%
Derrick Henry is coming off of a bye and facing one of the league’s worst run defenses, so it should be a near-automatic consideration this week. The Giants had one of the best performances of their season last week against New Orleans, holding the Saints to just 2.3 yards per carry. However, this is a defense that allows the fourth-most rushing yards per game and fifth-most DraftKings points to opposing running backs, and it is without Dexter Lawrence II who solidified their defensive line. The Ravens are projected to be the highest-scoring offense on this slate, and while they can pick and choose how they score this week against the Giants, there’s no reason to take a heavy usage of Lamar Jackson as Baltimore prepares for the playoffs. The only downside of Henry is that he isn’t involved in the passing game with just 13 receptions all season. He’s likely going to need 100+ yards and two touchdowns to hit GPP value, but this is one of the best matchups of the year.
David Montgomery- $7,000- 5%
People don’t like playing David Montgomery due to the committee with Jahmyr Gibbs. However, this is a matchup that should fit the Lions’ running back almost perfectly. This is projected to be one of the highest-scoring games of the season, and the Lions are projected to score 28.5 points this week. Montgomery is interesting because he’s actually been more involved in the passing game over the last four weeks than Jahmyr Gibbs. Montgomery has at least three receptions in each of his last four games while also averaging 14.5 carries per game. The way to beat the Bills is up the middle. We saw Jonathan Taylor have one of his best games of the season against Buffalo, as did Derrick Henry, who had 199 yards against this team. The defensive tackles DaQuan Jones and Ed Oliver are liabilities in the run defense, while linebacker Matt Milano has struggled in his two games returning from injury. If there’s a player in this high-scoring game that has a three-touchdown upside, it would be Montgomery this week.
Jonathan Taylor- $6,900- 4%
This is a play where you sort of just have to trust a process when factoring in price, roster percentage, and matchup. At 4% rostered, Jonathan Taylor has been the type of player who has been boom or bust all season. Taylor has four 100-yard performances this season, but he’s a player who has not scored a touchdown in his last five games and is not involved in the passing game with just 14 receptions all season. What’s encouraging here is that the offensive line, which is amongst the best in the NFL, is finally getting healthy for Indianapolis. The Colts are going to get All-Pro center Ryan Kelly back from IR just a week after getting one of the best young left tackles, Bernhard Reimann, back last week. It’s extremely unlikely that the Colts are going to be able to throw the ball against Denver this week, which means they’re going to need to rely on their offensive line in a must-win game. At 4% rostered, he has 100+ yards and multiple touchdown upside almost any time he takes the field.
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Chase Brown- $7,200- 24%
There’s a lot to like about what Chase Brown has done this season, but this is a situation where the price has risen, he’s still going to be highly rostered, and the matchup is significantly worse than the matchup the last couple of weeks. A lot of Chase Brown’s value recently has been as a receiver, as he has at least 50 yards receiving in three of his last four games. The problem is that Tennessee is one of the best defenses in the NFL when it comes to stopping running backs as receivers. They are allowing just 24 receiving yards per game to the position, and only four running backs have topped 25 all season. Brown has also seen his volume start to decrease as the passing offense has been one of the best in the NFL. Over the two weeks, Brown has just 20 and 15 touches, which, if that continues, he’s priced as the player who had averaged 27 touches in his previous three games. With the Bengals all but eliminated from playoff contention, it would seem extremely unlikely that he would ramp back up to that 27-touch average, especially with how Joe Burrow and the passing offense are currently operating.
Wide Receiver
As a reminder, these are receivers who are not in the stacking section. Most of the top-end receivers are going to be listed in stacks; these are more under-the-radar type receivers. Refer to the chart at the bottom of this article to reference the quality of each play.
Brian Thomas Jr..- $5,800- 16%
The Jaguars have simply gotten to a point where they have almost no one left for Mac Jones to throw the ball to. With Gabe Davis, Christian Kirk, and Evan Engram all out for the year, Thomas is going to be relied upon to have a massive role in this offense. Over the last two weeks, Thomas has had ten or more targets while topping 75 yards in both games. This week, the Jaguars get the Jets, who are allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, but have shown some vulnerability as of late as they’ve allowed five receivers to top 70 yards over the last three games. Expect Thomas to move into the slot more than normal to avoid the matchup with Sauce Gardner this week.
Courtland Sutton- $6,600- 16%
Courtland Sutton is emerged as an elite wide receiver over the last six games. Over the last six weeks, Sutton has 70 yards or more in all six games, has 100 yards or more in three of those contests and has done it against some of the NFL’s best cornerbacks. Sutton has had success against Denzel Ward, Charvarius Ward, and Jaycee Horn, and this week gets a Colts defense that has allowed five receivers to top 100 yards this season. While the Colts have been better over the second-half of the season this is largely due to favorable matchups or teams taking advantage of the Colts poor run defense. The Broncos have no ability to take advantage of the bad run defense for Indianapolis, so they will need to turn to Sutton this week to take advantage of the matchup with Jaylon Jones this week.
Josh Downs- $5,100- 5%
Did people forget about Josh Downs and how great he was pre-injury? Downs was the number one target for Anthony Richardson prior to the injury, and while the matchup against the Broncos is somewhat scary, Michael Pittman Jr. is going to draw most of Patrick Surtain II this week meaning Downs should have the much more favorable matchup against Ja’Quan McMillan. We saw in Denver’s last game where the Browns brought Jerry Jeudy down into the slot to take advantage of the matchup and it paid off significantly. Whether it is McMillan or Downs lines up on the outside against Riley Moss, Surtain is likely to shadow Pittman based on the size and pedigree of the perceived number one receiver in Indianapolis. This should setup Josh Downs to be under-rostered and under-priced this week.
Malik Nabers- $6,400- 4%
No one is going to want to confidently play Malik Nabers this week. With Tommy DeVito back at quarterback, the perception is that it will limit Nabers’ upside for the Giants. However, is it really going to be any worse than when Drew Lock was starting? Over the last six weeks, the targets still have been there for Nabers as he has averaged 11 targets per game. This one is a little bit of a narrative. After DeVito’s start this season which was a 30-7 loss to Tampa Bay, Nabers went off in the post-game press conference about how he didn’t get the ball until the game was 30-0 and you would have to ask Brian Daboll why that happened. There’s a narrative here where the inexperienced DeVito looks more heavily early to Nabers this week. The matchup is perfect for the Giants as they’re going to be unable to run the ball against one of the league’s best run defenses, but the way to beat the Ravens has been through the air as they’re allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season.
High Upside Cheap Receivers-
Dyami Brown- $3,100- 8%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine- $4,900- 3%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling- $4,500- 0.5%
Scotty Miller- $3,000- 0%
Jalen McMillan- $3,700-4%
Tight End
Stone Smartt- $2,600-9%
Smartt is in a perfect spot this week. Facing Tampa Bay who has the worst defense against tight ends this season, Smartt filling in for the injured Will Dissly should have a big opportunity to provide cost savings this week. Tampa Bay has allowed 50 yards or more to four straight tight ends including Tommy Tremble and Michael Mayer. Smartt is more of a wide receiver body classified as a tight end as he’s 6’4’’ 225 pounds and extremely athletic. Last week, he had just 37% of the snaps as Will Dissly was injured half-way through the game and in those 37% of snaps had three receptions for 54 yards.
Jonnu Smith- $5,400- 3%
Jonnu Smith continues to go underlooked. Smith struggled last week not having a catch in regulation before having 13.4 DraftKings points to save his day with all of those points coming in overtime. However, in the three prior games Smith had 23 or more DraftKings points as the Dolphins had 85 yards or more while topping 100 in two of those three games. Facing a Texans defense that has issues at the safety position could open up opportunities for Smith this week. Houston has faced one of the softest tight end schedules on the season, but did allow Sam LaPorta who is the best tight end to top 15 Draftkings points. LaPorta was the best tight end by a wide margin when factoring in that Evan Engram was injured last week.
