Slate Overview- Week 14 Thoughts
This is a unique week. Many people are going to have a very similar roster build, given that we have six teams on bye and only a 10-game slate. The build is largely going to be to spend down at quarterback, have one high-priced running back and one low-end running back, take mid-priced wide receivers, and then spend up at tight end. The high-end running backs and tight ends provide a significant advantage this week compared to the cheaper options, given the upside.
So, how should you approach this week? You certainly can find enough unique builds by following this lineup approach by taking some of the less popular mid-priced receivers or pivoting off of Brock Bowers for a Trey McBride-type player. However, you can also take a different approach. Instead of going with Will Levis, Caleb Williams, or Aidan O’Connell, you could take a higher-end quarterback, stack them with their receivers, and take two cheap running backs. If you went with Isaac Guerendo and Braelon Allen, for example, you would then have the flexibility to spend up at quarterback, up at tight end, and even have a higher priced wide receiver than you would if you took a Saquon Barkley. It is a riskier strategy, as Barkley and Alvin Kamara are in premier matchups, but we see it multiple times per year where a running back in a spot that should crush it just has an okay game.
The other option is to stack the running backs and go cheap at the tight end position. There are builds that allow you to have both Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara in the same lineup. The upside here is that if these two players have their ceiling game, you legitimately could have 70 points between the two players for $17,000 in salary. At that point, you’re in a fantastic spot compared to everyone else who didn’t take both players and just need good games from the remainder of your lineups instead of ceiling games.
Key Injuries for Week 14
- Breece Hall is doubtful this week with a knee injury. Braelon Allen will get the start for the Jets. Allen is going to be popular at just $5,000, and while he’s shown flashes, he is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry on the season for a team that struggled to move the ball with Breece Hall. There’s certainly risk with Allen this week, but he should see the majority of the workload.
- Taysom Hill is out for the Saints. They also had hoped to get Bub Means back at wide receiver, but he will also miss another week. The Saints are now without Hill, Means, Chris Olave, and Rashid Shaheed. This should open up Alvin Kamara to have about as many touches as he can handle, but it also could open the door for Kevin Austin Jr or Marquez Valdes-Scantling, both as punt plays in a favorable matchup against the Giants this week.
- Malik Nabers is questionable with a hip injury. If he were to miss this week, Theo Johnson would get a nice bump, as would Darius Slaton and Wan’Dale Robinson, but neither receiver is cheap enough to be a core building block, given the lack of upside with Drew Lock at quarterback.
- Cedric Tillman will once again miss for Cleveland with a concussion. This should greatly benefit Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore who did not see their price increase due to the breakout performance happening on Monday Night after pricing had been released.
- Bucky Irving is questionable with a hip injury. While it seems like he’s going to play, if he were to miss, Rachaad White would be a near must-start.
- Ken Walker III is questionable with an ankle injury. If he were to miss, Zach Charbonnet would get the start. While Charbonnet has not been overly inspiring this season, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, he has shown ability as a receiving back early on in the year and does have the game against Miami in which he had 91 rushing yards and two touchdowns. At $4,800, he would at least be GPP viable this week because of the value and touchdown equity.
- D’Andre Swift is questionable, while Roschon Johnson is out for the Bears. Swift did get a limited practice in on Friday after missing Wednesday and Thursday. The team did sign Demetric Felton in case Swift is unable to go, but Travis Homer is the only running back on the active roster. Homer is more of a special teams player, so it could be Darrynton Evans who would get the bulk of the carries this week, although a committee approach would be the most likely scenario.
- Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason are both out for the season. This will put Isaac Guerendo as the starting running back for the 49ers. Guerendo has all the tools here to be a starting running back, as his physical attributes are 220 pounds and running a 4.33 40-yard dash. However, this will be the first time as a multi-game starter since high school, as he was a backup to Braelon Allen at Wisconsin and Jawhar Jordan at Louisville.
Stacks
Aidan O’Connell, Brock Bowers, Mike Evans
Aidan O’Connell is coming off of a career day against one of the league’s best defenses as he threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns against Kansas City last week. This week, O’Connell gets to face Tampa Bay, which is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and 276 passing yards per game, which is third in the NFL this season. Tampa Bay allowed a career day to Bryce Young in Week 13 as the Panthers quarterback had 23.6 DraftKings points. At just $4,800, O’Connell allows you to do so much with the rest of your roster with legitimate 300-yard and multi-touchdown upside.
Brock Bowers is separating himself as the top tight end in the NFL. Bowers has 120 yards or more in each of his last two games and is now taking on Tampa Bay, which has allowed at least 50 yards to opposing tight ends in four of the last five games. When Kyle Pitts has 80 yards or more twice against this defense, that should be all that you need to know about how this team covers the tight end position. $6,500 is going to be a price point that is going to be prohibitive for a lot of people. While he’s likely going to be rostered by about 17% of rosters, he’s a player who can provide a significant advantage given the ten or more targets in each of his last three games.
Mike Evans needs 95.8 yards per game the rest of the season in order to keep his 1,000-yard season streak alive, which is something he has done in every season throughout his career. While it previously seemed impossible, Evans had a breakout game last week with 118 yards on 12 targets. The Buccaneers have struggled to find a secondary option with Chris Godwin still out, so the team should look heavily toward Evans. Running the ball also could be difficult for Tampa Bay this week, which could lead to a pass-heavy approach as the Raiders have been allowing just 3.4 yards per carry to opposing running backs since Week 8.
Jameis Winston, Jerry Jeudy, George Pickens
Jameis Winston and the Browns showed what they are against one of the league’s best pass defenses in Denver on Monday Night. Jameis threw for 497 yards, four touchdowns, and three interceptions last week. With Jameis, he’s largely matchup-proof, as he can make the league’s best defense look bad but can also struggle with the league’s worst pass defenses. The Steelers pass defense has been great all season but did show some cracks with Joe Burrow throwing for 309 yards and three touchdowns, as he was the first quarterback to throw for over 300 and the first to throw three touchdowns all season against Pittsburgh.
With Cedric Tillman out, both Jerry Jeudy and Elijah Moore see upgrades in this matchup. The key here is the upside with Jeudy compared to Moore. Moore is used more as the possession-type player, averaging just 8.9 yards per catch this season, and is not heavily utilized in the red zone as he has just six red zone targets on the year. Meanwhile, the bigger Jeudy is coming off of a nine reception 235-yard performance with a touchdown against the Broncos and one of the best corners in the NFL in Patrick Surtain II.
Start number one receivers against Cleveland. This is a team that does not rotate their corners, as they keep Denzel Ward and Martin Emerson Jr on the same side for the vast majority of the game. The problem with that is that while Ward is an excellent corner, Martin Emerson Jr is among the league’s worst. So, all teams have to do is to game plan that Emerson is going to be on the right side of the field for 90% of the snaps to take advantage of the matchup. Last week, we saw both Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims Jr. go for over 100 yards. This is an emotional game for Pickens this week after getting into an altercation at the end of the game just two weeks ago, so there could be some extra motivation this week.
Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jonnu Smith, Davante Adams (optional)
This is largely a question of how much the Jets care about this game. Sauce Gardner will miss this week. C.J. Moseley was placed on IR, and the team is now 3-9 for a team that had playoff aspirations. The Dolphins’ passing offense is heating up. Despite having to play in frigid conditions on Thanksgiving, Tua Tagovailoa still threw for 365 yards and two touchdowns, which was his second straight 300-yard performance. While Tyreek Hill has not had a 100-yard game since Week 1, he’s only projected to be rostered by about 3% of rosters despite just being $7,100. The Jets' secondary has some major holes as they’re going to be starting undrafted rookie Qwan’tez Stiggers, who came from the Canadian Football League and is one of the worst corners in the NFL so far this season. At safety, the Jets have been one of the weakest teams in the NFL, as Chuck Clark and converted corner Jalen Mills have both struggled mightily at the position.
The top target for Tagovailoa since returning from injury has been Jonnu Smith. Smith has at least 80 yards in each of his last three games, topping 100 yards in two of those three contests and scoring three touchdowns over the last three games. If there’s a player who has the upside to compete with Brock Bowers, it is Smith, who is $1,200 cheaper than Bowers and will be overlooked more than the rookie. With all of the issues already mentioned with the Jets secondary and with C.J. Moseley out for the year, this is a defense that is not the same as some of their early season stats against tight ends. The last time they faced a strong pass-catching tight end was in Week 10 when Trey McBride had 71 yards against this defense.
QUARTERBACK
Caleb Williams- $5,600- 8.5%
There are some big defensive questions for San Francisco this week. Their defense is incredibly thin with key players such as Nick Bosa, Javon Hargrave, and Talanoa Hufanga; this is a defense that opponents have taken a run-heavy approach to defeating the 49ers as of late. However, the Bears may not have that option in Week 14, given the limitations due to trading Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson being out, and D’Andre Swift being questionable. Over the last two games, Caleb Williams has looked great, throwing for at least 250 yards and multiple touchdowns, including a 340-yard, 2-touchdown performance against the Vikings. Williams has also run the ball for at least 30 yards in each of his last three games. With head coach Matt Eberflus no longer with the team, Thomas Brown should have no limitations when it comes to play calling and could just throw caution to the wind as he ultimately is auditioning for his next job. Williams is the type of player who could see his roster projection rise throughout the week. As of Friday evening, he’s projected around 8%, but it would not be a surprise if he became one of the highest-rostered quarterbacks on this slate.
Josh Allen- $8,000- 3.5%
Josh Allen, at 3.5%, is always going to need to be taken into consideration, as the upside that he has is simply too high compared to the mid-tier quarterbacks on this slate. However, this week, Allen gets to face the Rams, who have struggled against the pass as their weak spot in their corners. The Rams have only faced one quarterback in the tier of Allen, and they largely shut down Jalen Hurts, but that was only because Saquon Barkley ran for 255 yards and two touchdowns. Allen has run for a touchdown in three straight games, and while he only threw for 148 yards last week, you largely have to throw that game out due to the heavy snow that forced both teams to run the ball on Sunday Night.
Fade:
Will Levis- $5,000- 13%
Will Levis is currently projected to be the most popular quarterback in Week 14. That alone should scare you enough to look elsewhere. While Levis has been better as of late, as he’s thrown for 275 yards or more in two of his last three games, he’s a quarterback that may not have the GPP winning upside, especially at 13%. Levis has not thrown for more than two touchdowns in a game, has not thrown for 300 yards this season, and is not running the ball nearly as much early on in the season. Levis has run for more than 20 yards just once over the last seven games. While the matchup against Jacksonville is extremely favorable, there’s just too much risk for Levis compared to a player like Aidan O’Connell, who threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns against the Chiefs last week.
Running Back
This is a strange week. There are not a lot of great options at the running back position, which means that you may want to just go with the crowd this week and find a way to be different at other positions. You have two elite running backs, Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara, in extremely favorable matchups, and you have two cheap running backs due to injury that should also be in a very favorable matchup and role. Beyond that, you have some higher-risk type players, but on this shorter slate, this is not a deep running back pool.
Alvin Kamara- $8,000- 32%
Alvin Kamara has been a volume workhorse even before Taysom Hill’s injury. This is a player who had 35, 22, 20, and 27 touches over the last four games. With all the injuries for the Saints, they’re going to need to continue to rely on Kamara for the remainder of the season. This week, Kamara gets an extremely favorable matchup against the Giants, who have allowed big games from Rico Dowdle, Bucky Irving, and Chuba Hubbard over the last three games, with each running back topping 24 DraftKings points. The big question this week will be whether to target Kamara or Saquon Barkley.
Saquon Barkley- $9,000- 21%
Most people are going to have to choose between Saquon Barkley or Alvin Kamara this week, and it’s going to be extremely difficult. Barkley is on an MVP and potentially record-setting pace as he’s in reach of Eric Dickerson’s rushing record. Barkley has topped 100 yards in six of his last seven games while also adding at least 40 receiving yards in three of his last five games. There’s not much more to say about the Panthers’ run defense, but they’re allowing 138 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, which is 20 yards more than the second-worst team. The Panthers are allowing 30 DraftKings points to opposing running backs per game and should be a heavy target. If you are only building one lineup, looking at Barkley could be an option here over the higher-rostered Kamara, but with all of the value on this slate, there is a path to fit both players in a lineup.
Isaac Guerendo- $5,400- 24%
The Bears have some serious questions this week. How are they going to respond after a heartbreaking loss on Thanksgiving that ended up causing Matt Eberflus to be fired? How will the team react to losing their defensive playcaller in Eberflus? Chicago’s run defense has looked shaky even before some of these questions heading into this week. Since Week 8, the Bears have been allowing 139 rushing yards per game, which is the third-highest in the NFL. They have major issues at linebacker, and one of the strengths of this 49ers’ offense has been their offensive line, even with Trent Williams out another game this week. If Guerendo can get to the open field, he’s big enough and fast enough to break a long run in this game.
Bijan Robinson- $7,500- 12%
Kirk Cousins doesn’t look right. He seemingly has been unable to throw the ball downfield, lacking velocity on his throws. What this has done is led to an increase in receiving volume for Bijan Robinson as the Falcons have taken more of a check-down approach with Robinson. Over the last five games, Robinson has averaged five receptions per game, along with 18 carries per game. Last week, we saw Robinson have 26 carries and 32 total touches as he added six receptions. Against a very good Chargers defense, Robinson had over 135 yards and a touchdown last week. He’s one of the few players on this slate who have the volume and skill to compete with Barkley and Kamara to be the top running back on this slate.
Wide Receiver
As a reminder, these are receivers who are not in the stacking section. Most of the top-end receivers are going to be listed in stacks; these are more under-the-radar type receivers. Refer to the chart at the bottom of this article to reference the quality of each play.
Jauan Jennings- $5,200- 14%
Jauan Jennings is under-priced and overlooked this week. While his price wasn’t impacted by his 56-yard performance in the snow last week due to it being a primetime game, the perception of Jennings is much lower than it should be. Offensively, the 49ers have been decimated by injuries as they’ve lost Brandon Aiyuk, their top three running backs, and Deebo Samuel continues to look like he’s far less than 100%. For Jennings to get 56 yards in that blizzard was 60% of the total yards that Brock Purdy threw in that game. The Bears have allowed a receiver to top 150 yards in two of their last three games, as Jordan Addison and Christian Watson both had massive games recently against Chicago.
Keenan Allen- $5,600- 8%
It took a while for Allen to acclimate to Caleb Williams, but over the last two weeks, Allen looks like he’s found a time machine and gone back 5-6 years, as he’s been fantastic for the Bears. Allen has 70 yards or more in each of his last two games, but he really has become the top red zone threat for the Bears, as he has caught three touchdowns over the last two games. This week, Allen will match up against Deommodore Lenoir, who is dealing with a knee injury that kept him out of last week’s game. The 49ers also have some serious safety injuries, which could set up some red-zone opportunities for Allen this week.
Jakobi Meyers- $5,600- 22%
What does Jakobi Meyers have to do to have his price increase on DraftKings? The receiver has been excellent over the last four games as he has 95 yards or more in three of his last four games with 11 or more targets in those games. The Raiders have faced elite secondaries in the last three games in Kansas City, Denver, and Miami, while this week, he gets one of the best matchups that he could have against Tampa Bay. The knock on Meyers has been the lack of touchdowns, as he has only two in the season. Meyers does have ten red zone targets on the season which is just one less than Brock Bowers for the team lead.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba- $6,300- 7%
Smith-Njigba is in a difficult pricing range that is going to make him go somewhat overlooked. People are either going to pay up for the A.J. Brown/Mike Evans/Puka Nacua/Justin Jefferson range, or they’re going to look down to the mid-5k range, spending their salary at running back. Smith-Njigba has provided consistency over the last four games as he’s topped 70 yards or more in each of those games while also showing a high upside with a 180-yard two-touchdown game against the Rams. This week, Smith-Njigba gets a rematch against the Cardinals, whom the Seahawks played just two weeks ago. That was a very slow-paced, low-scoring 16-6 game, but even in that one, Smith-Njigba had 77 yards and a touchdown leading the team. At $6,300, you’re getting a receiver who has a 100+ yard upside while leading the team in red zone opportunities.
High Upside Cheap Receivers-
Parker Washington- $4,400- 2%
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine- $4,700- 5%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling- $4,600- 3%
Calvin Austin III- $3,300- 4%
Darius Slayton- $4,300-3%
Tight End
Juwan Johnson- $3,400-6%
With Taysom Hill out, we saw last week that Juwan Johnson’s role in this offense has increased, as he had seven targets last week. The Saints have come out and said that their offense is not going to change significantly despite the injury to Hill, which ultimately means that Johnson should see a significant increase in workload, especially near the goal line. While he provides a nice floor given the targets that he should have this week, he likely does not have the upside as some of the expensive tight ends this week. The key here for Johnson to be a GPP winner is to either have multiple touchdowns or the top-end tight ends to disappoint. At 6%, he provides enough salary flexibility to build a unique lineup, such as putting both Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara in your lineup this week.
Trey McBride- $6,100- 10%
Trey McBride has been a volume machine over the last two weeks as he has 27 targets over the last two games with 95 yards or more in those two games. The issue for McBride is that he does not have a touchdown all season. McBride has 13 red zone targets on the season, which leads the team, and ultimately, it does not make sense that he has that many targets without a touchdown. There’s certainly regression coming where he will find the end-zone over the next couple of games. If McBride can find the end-zone, he will have a Brock Bowers-type upside this week.
Player Chart
