Slate Overview- Week 12 Thoughts
There are a lot of key decision points that you’re going to need to make this week simply because of injuries. At the quarterback this week, there are two minimum-priced players: Tommy DeVito and Brandon Allen. As of Saturday, about 18% of lineups are projected to have either DeVito or Allen. This is an overreaction that will then raise the roster percentages of some of the high-end players like Christian McCaffrey (20%) and De’Von Achane (28%) and have a trickle-down effect to tight end as Travis Kelce will likely be around 20%.
In the case of McCaffrey and Kelce, these are not optimal situations for these two. Kansas City should be able to take a run-heavy approach and come out with a victory against the Panthers, while it is anyone’s guess how the 49ers will perform this week with Brandon Allen at quarterback. McCaffrey has been unable to take advantage of the Seattle last week, so it would seem difficult to picture a scenario where he has a massive game to justify the $8,500 price point.
Building a mid-range, correlated lineup seems to be the way to go this week, as there are a number of potential high-scoring games. Arizona vs Seattle and Indianapolis vs Detroit would be the prime targets, but you could also target the offenses of Washington, Miami, Houston, and even Tampa Bay this week.
Key Injuries for Week 12
- Brock Purdy will not play this week. This is a big downgrade to all players in the San Francisco offense, but likely also on the Green Bay passing offense, as it should ultimately lead to a slower-paced game. If Allen was going overlooked, he could be in consideration, but he’s going to be one of the top four highest rostered quarterbacks on this slate, which is likely a clear stay away, as in his nine starts in his career, he has only topped 250 yards and multiple touchdowns once.
- The Giants will be starting Tommy DeVito this week. While some people are convincing themselves that there is an upside here, you need to approach this with extreme caution. The story was fun, but it didn’t reflect reality. DeVito threw the ball over 200 yards just one-time last season, and while he showed a little bit of rushing upside, that was largely in games that he had no success passing the ball.
- Alexander Mattison and Zamir White will both miss this week. Ameer Abdullah is going underlooked at just 5% rostered. More on him in the running back section.
- Jake Ferguson is out this week. This could make the Dallas tight ends interesting, as they are very cheap punt plays, and Luke Schoonmaker showed some upside last week. It should also help CeeDee Lamb, as he’ll be the primary target for Cooper Rush and should get additional targets because of the injury.
Stacks
C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, Calvin Ridley
C.J. Stroud is a completely different quarterback this season at home compared to on the road. At home, he’s completing 66% of his passes, 291 passing yards per game, and has at least a touchdown in every game. On the road, he’s averaging just 60% completion and 195 passing yards per game. This week, Stroud is at home taking on a Titans defense that could be on quit watch after their season has gone astray with a 2-7 start. Collins is going largely underlooked after being the best receiver prior to his injury earlier this season. Even in a difficult matchup this week, Collins has shown that he is matchup proof as he had 135 yards and a touchdown against the Bears and Jaylon Johnson.
On the other side, expect the Titans to not be able to run the ball against this very good Houston run defense. The Titans have been quick to abandon the run over the last two weeks, where Tony Pollard has just nine carries in each of his last two games. This should force the Titans into a negative game script and throw the ball frequently against the Texans this week. The only receiver that Will Levis has shown that he trusts is Calvin Ridley. Over the last four weeks, Ridley has at least 50 yards in all four games, and while touchdowns have been an issue all season for Tennessee, he has had two touchdowns in those four games. Last week, we saw CeeDee Lamb and Cooper Rush have garbage time success against this defense, as Lamb ended the day with 93 yards receiving against the Texans.
Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr., Jaxon Smith-Njigba
2024 has been disappointing for Marvin Harrison Jr.. After anticipation that he would immediately become one of the best receivers in football, he has struggled for a large majority of the season. However, there have been games in which he has shown glimpses. Harrison has faced a difficult schedule the last four weeks, taking on the Jets, Bears, Dolphins, and Chargers, which are four of the best pass defenses in the NFL. Coming off of a bye, we have to wonder if the team has had extra time for Harrison to catch his breath and reset in what could be a favorable matchup against the Seahawks, who have allowed 90 receiving yards or more to four receivers over the last three games.
Meanwhile, Smith-Njigba could just be on a hot streak, but he could also be emerging as one of the best receivers in football. The second-year first-round pick has topped 100 yards in each of his last two weeks, as he has 180 and 110 yards with two total touchdowns in those games. Smith-Njigba should see a lot of Sean Murphy-Bunting this week, who is the team’s worst cornerback. For a game that could be a shootout, this gives you a little bit of uniqueness, as Marvin Harrison Jr. and Kyler Murray compared to Geno Smith and DK Metcalf, which will be far more popular.
Caleb Williams, Rome Odunze, Justin Jefferson
Caleb Williams showed signs against the Packers last week that he is on the verge of a breakout performance. He’s another quarterback who has been much better at home than on the road. Williams has run for at least 30 yards in three of his last four home games, including running for 70 yards last week against Green Bay. The weather should be as good as it gets for late November in Chicago, as we’re looking at 52 degrees and less than 10 miles per hour of wind. Williams is projected to be about 1% rostered, which is simply too low for a player whom the Bears will need to look to keep them competitive this week, as Minnesota has an elite run defense.
For Odunze, he’s starting to emerge as the player that the Bears hoped he would be when they took him in the first round. Last week, Odunze had 65 yards last week, but it was the ten targets which was 32% of Caleb Williams's total targets, which is encouraging. Odunze now has six or more targets in five of the last six games, with two 100-yard performances on the season. The Vikings have had issues with big-play wide receivers, as six receivers have topped 100 yards on the year against them.
For Justin Jefferson, any time you can get him under 10%, you need to at least consider him. Having a down year, his price has fallen to just $8,100, and the only players on this slate who have the upside as Jefferson is likely A.J. Brown, Mike Evans, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. We’ve seen the Bears a little bit susceptible to deep plays as of late, as Christian Watson had 150 yards on four catches last week, while Terry McLaurin had 125 yards on five catches back in Week 8.
Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, Brock Bowers
Bo Nix is quickly ascending to challenge Jayden Daniels as the Offensive Rookie of the Year. The quarterback, whom very few had any expectations for heading into this season, has been outstanding, as he has 29 or more DraftKings points in two of his last four games. At $6,300, he’s going overlooked and should only be rostered in about 5% of lineups this week, but the matchup is a great one. Nix is facing a Raiders secondary that has allowed eight passing touchdowns over their last two weeks as Joe Burrow threw five and Tua Tagovailoa threw three against them. Nix’s recent production has largely been thanks to Courtland Sutton. Sutton has at least 70 yards in each of his last four games. Once a player who had consistency issues, he’s averaged 9.5 targets per game over the last four weeks.
For the Raiders, Brock Bowers continues to dominate. Bowers had 13 receptions for 126 yards and a touchdown last week, and he now has 70 or more yards in four of his last six games. With Patrick Surtain II likely going to be matched up a lot against Jakobi Meyers, how else are the Raiders going to be able to move the ball with Zamir White and Ameer Abdullah out this week? Bowers should have plenty of opportunities to have 10+ targets, and at just $6,300, it is more than a fair price for a player with that type of upside.
QUARTERBACK
Anthony Richardson- $5,600- 13%
Anthony Richardson answered a lot of questions last week. Prior to his benching, he looked like a player who simply could not play the quarterback position, as he completed 31% of his passes in that game, which led him to be benched. Facing a Jets defense that completely shut down C.J. Stroud in Week 9, Richardson was able to look like the player with the upside that caused the Colts to take him fourth overall. Richardson is still just 22 years old and does not turn 23 until May. Athletically, he’s one of the most talented quarterbacks in the NFL and just needs time to develop. This week, he gets a favorable matchup against Detroit, who suffered a crucial injury to linebacker Alex Anzalone, which should help Richardson’s rushing ability in this game. 13% is a little bit higher than you would want, but he's the type of guy who could completely break this slate at $5,600 with multiple rushing touchdowns as he had last week.
Jayden Daniels- $7,000- 9%
Jayden Daniels is a tricky play this week. I went back and forth on whether he was a start or a fade for Week 12, as there is certainly risk here with him being 9% rostered. However, we’re dealing with a Dallas team that very likely has quit on their defensive coaching staff. Dallas has allowed 34 points in each of their last two games, with the running game being their downfall as Joe Mixon and Jalen Hurts/Saquon Barkley both torched them on the ground. The reason that Daniels was potentially a fade is that we just have not seen him run nearly as much since his rib injury. Daniels’ value is created by his dual-threat ability, which makes him dangerous. Over the last two weeks, he’s averaged just 11.5 yards rushing, which needs to be greatly improved to be viable for GPP. However, in those two games, he was facing Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, which fundamentally are elite run defenses, which is something that Dallas simply is not right now.
Running Back
Bucky Irving- $5,300- 6%
If you’re looking for a cheap running back this week, you’re going to have a difficult time finding one that is in the $5-$6k range. At some point, Bucky Irving is going to take over the rushing attack for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He’s been the far better running back when comparing him to Rachaad White, as Irving is averaging 5.1 yards per carry to White’s 3.8 on the year. The only issue for Irving is that the team does not trust him in pass protection nearly as much as White, as he’s the far smaller back between the two, but everything else points in Irving’s direction. Irving has more goal-line looks and more carries, and White has just one more reception than Irving over the last three weeks, which is attributable to being on the field more due to the pass blocking. The Buccaneers should be able to run all over the Giants, who are in contention for the league’s worst run defense this season. Over their last four games, three running backs have topped 100 yards rushing against the Giants, with only Austin Ekeler being the lone back in the Washington committee who failed to do so, but he still had 17 DraftKings points against the Giants. At just 6% rostered, Irving is likely to score a touchdown this week with the upside of multiple against the Giants, and at $5,300 is just too cheap.
Ameer Abdullah- $4,300 3%
Ameer Abdullah is going completely overlooked as there are so many great high-end running back options that people want to play between De’Von Achane, Kareem Hunt, Joe Mixon, and Christian McCaffrey. However, in order to afford one of those guys, you could look at playing Ameer Abdullah this week. With both Zamir White and Alexander Mattison out, there’s speculation that the team could turn to rookie Dylan Laube, but honestly, that just seems unlikely. Laube has just one snap on the entire season and fumbled it. Abdullah has at least three receptions in four of his last six games, so we could see a game where the Raiders just go with a pass-heavy approach. If Abdullah sees 6-7 catches and somehow finds the end-zone, he’s going to be a player who, at 3%, you’ve hit 3-4x his salary and have a lot of salary to spend elsewhere.
De’Von Achane- $7,500 25%
Paying up for one of these high-priced, high-rostered running backs makes a lot of sense this week. Between Joe Mixon, Christian McCaffrey, and Achane, Achane comes out on top for a couple of different reasons. First, he’s $500-$1,000 cheaper than the other guys, which is critical in a week, and I’m personally not targeting either Tommy DeVito or Brandon Allen. Achane has been a workhorse in the receiving game, as he has 17 receptions over the last three games. Facing a Patriots defense that has been one of the worst run-stopping units in the NFL, Achane should be in a position to have a big day this week. While the Patriots have looked better in the last two weeks, this team has allowed 204 total yards to Dolphins running backs back in Week 5.
Jahmyr Gibbs- $7,300 6%
Jahmyr Gibbs goes underlooked almost every week. People simply do not want to play a running back in a committee with both Gibbs and David Montgomery. Gibbs is 7th on the season in DraftKings scoring and is facing a Colts defense that was shredded by Breece Hall, who is utilized as a very similar running back to Gibbs. Last week, Hall had 31.1 DraftKings points as he had 78 yards rushing and a touchdown, with seven receptions for 43 yards and a receiving touchdown. We’ve also seen Tony Pollard, Tank Bigsby, and Joe Mixon twice have huge games against this defense that are allowing the 10th most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.
Wide Receiver
As a reminder, these are receivers who are not in the stacking section. Most of the top-end receivers are going to be listed in stacks; these are more under-the-radar type receivers. Refer to the chart at the bottom of this article to reference the quality of each play.
CeeDee Lamb- $7,300- 9%
We saw Cooper Rush realize that he had CeeDee Lamb on his roster in the second half of last week’s game. In Lamb’s second game with Rush as the starter, he had eight receptions for 93 yards against one of the best young corners in the NFL, Derek Stingley Jr. This week, Lamb should see a more favorable matchup as the Commanders have struggled against the elite wide receivers this season. Ja’Marr Chase had 118 yards and two touchdowns, while Malik Nabers had ten receptions for 127 yards and a touchdown. For the Cowboys to compete at all this week, it will need to be through Lamb and the passing game, especially with Jake Ferguson out.
Deebo Samuel Sr.- $6,500- 3%
Deebo seems to have broken the DraftKings algorithm. He’s almost overpriced every single week compared to his production, as this is a player who has just two touchdowns this season and is averaging just 63 yards per game. This is entirely speculation on how this game will go, but with Brandon Allen, we could see the 49ers try to utilize Deebo more frequently this week. We saw that start to happen even with Purdy, as Deebo has 60 receiving yards or more in two of his last three games, and the team is looking for playmakers with Brandon Aiyuk’s injury. With George Kittle being less than 100%, and the 49ers maybe not comfortable with throwing downfield to Pearsall/Jennings, you could see more of the quick passes to Deebo. If he has early success, we could see him get back to his prior year's upside.
Josh Downs- $6,200- 7%
Most had written Josh Downs completely off their player chart after the Colts went back to Anthony Richardson last week. Downs’ success this season had almost exclusively come with Joe Flacco at quarterback. However, last week, we saw that Downs can have a role in this offense as he had five receptions for 84 yards and a touchdown. Downs has largely replaced Michael Pittman Jr as the team’s primary receiver. The only concern for Downs is that he did catch all five of his targets, and he’ll need more targets to consistently make an impact this season.
Tight End
Jonnu Smith- $4,100- 9%
For the low-end tight ends, targets are nice, but red zone targets are everything. You want to make sure that you have a chance at a touchdown when targeting the tight end position. Last week, the Dolphins utilized Smith very creatively as they moved him in motion, trying to create mismatches along the goal line, which ultimately led to his two-touchdown performance. Smith has always been one of the more athletic tight ends in the NFL, and with the Dolphins seemingly finally figuring out how to utilize him, he could become a dangerous weapon over the rest of the season.
Luke Schoonmaker- $2,500- 6%
Getting a tight end at minimum price who had ten targets last week at only 6% rostered? He should be much higher rostered, even despite the lack of touchdown opportunities. If he can get you ten or more points, that’s already 4x his salary.
Fade:
Travis Kelce- $5,800- 20%
20% for Travis Kelce in a game in which the Chiefs should be able to move the ball however they want is a little bit crazy. Last week, we saw Kelce have just two receptions for 8 yards. At $5,800, he has an upside, but he also has a very low floor for a player who is going to be 20% rostered. It’s unlikely that the Panthers are going to be able to consistently move the ball against this elite Chiefs defense, and therefore, if the Chiefs get up 14-0, and it’s not because of Kelce, you could see him being quickly game-scripted out of the game.
