Slate Overview- Week 11 Thoughts-
Week 11 is a difficult week. We have a week when a lot of people are going to be on the same type of lineup. You’re going to see a significant amount of lineups be similar in Week 11 with going to a cheap quarterback, Christian McCaffrey, and one other high-end running back, either De’Von Achane or Alvin Kamara, and then a bunch of mid-tier wide receivers, such as Cedric Tillman, Jakobi Meyers, Khalil Shakir, and Kayshon Boutte. What this does is create a scenario where it is going to create a lot of similar lineups. If McCaffrey, Achane, and Kamara all fail to reach value, it does create an opportunity to create a different lineup that will allow you to benefit from a unique lineup.
Key Injuries for Week 11
- Tee Higgins will play this week for the Bengals. While this helps Joe Burrow, it will decrease the interest in Ja’Marr Chase coming off of his record-setting performance against Baltimore. Chase is an intriguing GPP play as he has consistently had better performances with Higgins in the lineup than with him out, despite his game last week.
- Buffalo’s situation is a bit of a mess. Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman have both already been ruled out. Amari Cooper is trending towards playing, but is still questionable for this week. This leaves Dawson Knox and Khalil Shakir as tremendous plays this week despite a difficult matchup against Kansas City.
- Sam LaPorta is out with a shoulder injury. In a game that the Lions should be able to win fairly easily, this is a minor upgrade to the rushing attack as well as Amon-Ra St. Brown.
- Trevor Lawrence will miss once again this week with a shoulder injury. Mac Jones will get the start, which will severely limit the upside of the Jacksonville offense as they were simply unable to move the ball against Minnesota last week.
Stacks
Jameis Winston, Cedric Tillman, Alvin Kamara
Jameis Winston is in a revenge game this week. Going up against his former team, he should be in a tremendous opportunity to have a big game in Week 11. For Winston, we’ve seen that when he had a favorable matchup, he had 334 yards and three touchdowns against Baltimore. Against New Orleans, We’ve seen over the last several weeks that the Saints have issues. Over the last six weeks, New Orleans has allowed four quarterbacks to throw for 275 yards or more in four of the last six games.
For Cedric Tillman, this is all about the upside. Tillman has averaged 11 targets in each of his last three games, with at least 75 receiving yards in all three of those contests. Cleveland is a team that needs to evaluate the talent that they have in Tillman, who is in his second season in the NFL, and he provides the upside of a developmental player who could immediately become an elite receiver that Amari Cooper once filled that role.
For Kamara, this is a player who is seeing volume at $8,200, which is too cheap. We don’t know where this Cleveland team is currently at coming off of their bye week, but since Chris Olave suffered a concussion, Kamara has been a volume workhorse. We saw J.K. Dobbins destroy this Browns defense prior to the bye week as he had 85 rushing yards and two touchdowns. This is a team that, at 2-7, is not going to be as motivated as some other teams that are still in playoff contention.
Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Jonathan Taylor
The Jets stack is fairly simple this week. With Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, the options are relatively limited to either Garret Wilson or Davante Admas. Despite the Jets being 3-7 on the season, they’re still having playoff aspirations if they win out this week. For Aaron Rodgers, we haven’t seen a high-end performance as he has yet to throw for 300+ yards and has only thrown for three touchdowns once this season. However, with Adams, there is something intriguing about a guy who has been leading the team in red zone opportunities since joining the team at just $7,200 and who has led the team in red zone targets since joining the Jets.
For Jonathan Taylor, this is a running back who has topped 100 yards in four of his last six games and is taking on a Jets team that the way to beat them is on the ground. Over the last four games, the Jets have allowed 100 performances from Najee Harris and Joe Mixon, and Jonathan Taylor should be the best running back that they’ve faced all season, as every good running back that they’ve faced in 2024 has topped 100 yards. At $7,600, Jonathan Taylor is underpriced for his upside, especially in the matchup against the Jets this week.
Russell Wilson, George Pickens, Mark Andrews
Baltimore’s pass defense has been the worst in the NFL in the 2024 season. This is a defense that is allowing 314 passing yards per game and has allowed at least 300 in four of their last six games as Joe Burrow, Jameis Winston, Baker Mayfield, and Joe Burrow were all able to top the milestone. For Pickens, you get an undervalued receiver at just 12% rostered who has at least 70 yards in his last three games. Averaging 16.0 yards per catch, this is a player who has the deep-threat ability and can burn a defense that is missing Kyle Hamilton for multiple touchdowns this week.
On the other side, Mark Andrews is starting to show signs of emergence after a slow start to the 2024 season. Over the last five games, he has scored five touchdowns and has had 40 yards or more in four of the six games this season. Pittsburgh has been good against the tight end position but has allowed 70 yards or more to Jake Ferguson and Brock Bowers this season, and if this game turns into one of the shootouts that can happen between AFC North teams, Mark Andrews is likely going to be a guy you’re going to want to target In Week 11.
QUARTERBACK
Brock Purdy- $6,600- 11%
A lot of questions need to be asked about Seattle's motivation at this point in the season. This is a team that has allowed back-to-back 280-yard performances against Josh Allen and Matthew Stafford and has some serious motivation questions as center Connor Williams has retired this week, which should indicate some dysfunction in the locker room in Seattle. After a strong start to the season, Seattle has allowed 250+ yards passing in 5 of the last six games, and this is a team that has seen Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon both see a significant decrease in play in the 2024 season. For Purdy, he is a nice pivot off of Christian McCaffrey, who will be amongst the most popular plays in Week 11.
Jared Goff- $6,300- 3%
The Lions are 14-point favorites heading into the matchup against Jacksonville, which means from a GPP standpoint, all of the Lions should be in play. The only question will be whether the Jaguars can score enough points to have the Lions keep throwing throughout the game. Goff has a history of big games in a blowout situation, as he had 315 passing yards and three touchdowns in a game against the Cowboys in which they won 47-9, while he threw for 292 and 2 against the Seahawks in a 42-29 game. The ceiling here is far beyond the $6,300 price point as this is a player who could easily throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns against the Jaguars, who have allowed six quarterbacks to top 20 DraftKings points this season.
Running Back
Kyren Williams- $7,900- 13.5%
Kyren is going underlooked this week at $7,900. While he hasn’t scored a touchdown over the last two weeks, this is a player who had scored a touchdown in 10 consecutive games dating back to last season. Facing New England, this is a perfect matchup for the Ram's running back as he’s taking on a defense that has allowed four running backs to top 100 yards this season and is allowing 138 rushing yards per game, which is the most in the NFL this season since Week 4. Since Week 4, seven running backs have topped 80 yards in the seven games that the Patriots have had, with only D’Andre Swift being the running back who failed to top 80 yards last week.
De’Von Achane- $7,200- 32%
The percent rostered is high for Achane at 32%, but the cost is extremely low at just $7,200. This is a player who did have a disappointing week last week, but over his last three weeks, he has topped 120 yards in two of the last three games. At $7,200, the price is simply too low for a running back who has at least five receptions in each of his last three games. Facing the Raiders, Achane should be able to have a significant upside as they have allowed five 100+ total yard performances this season.
Nick Chubb- $6,000- 6%
We haven’t seen Nick Chubb have a huge game since his return from the ACL injury this offseason. In fact, he’s been extremely disappointing, averaging just 2.7 yards per carry. However, in his three games, he’s faced two of the best-run defenses in the NFL, Los Angeles and Baltimore. Chubb is the only player to top 50 yards against Baltimore all season and is facing a New Orleans team that has been abysmal against the run in 2024. Last week, New Orleans was torched for 116 yards and two touchdowns to Bijan Robinson, who was the fourth running back to top 100 yards in 2024. The defensive line is an absolute mess in New Orleans, while the Cleveland offensive line is getting healthier after having so many injuries over the first several weeks of the season. The one concern is the lack of pass-catching opportunities, which should limit Chubb’s upside, but 100 rushing yards and multiple touchdowns are not out of the question for the future Hall of Fame running back.
Wide Receiver
Kayshon Boutte- $3,500- 19%
This week, we’re looking at cheap wide receivers who can allow you to spend up at the other positions in Week 11. For Boutte, the answer is relatively simple. This is a player who, at $3,500, is still underpriced due to the slow start to the 2024 season, but he has at least six targets in each of his last three games while topping 40 yards in three of his last five contests. He’s clearly amongst the favorite receivers for Drake Maye and has led the team in red zone targets over the last three weeks.
Tyreek Hill- $7,400- 4%
Tyreek Hill has not been able to get back on track with Tua Tagovailoa since his return from Tua’s concussion. For Hill, the big question is how limited he is with his wrist injury or if it is just an inability to find cohesion with Tua. Hill has a game-changing ability, and at $7,400 and 4%, he should be a strong consideration almost every week, given his upside and low roster percentage. With the Dolphins at 3-6, this is a must-win and a must-get right game for them at home, and if they want any playoff aspirations, it needs to be because of Tyreek Hill and this offense getting right. This is still a player who had 1,799 yards last season and 13 touchdowns.
Cooper Kupp- $7,500- 5%
For Cooper Kupp, you’re getting a player who has at least 15 DraftKings points in four of his five games this season at $7,500. Kupp faced an elite pass defense last week in Miami and still had seven receptions for 80 yards to get to the 15-point threshold. This week, Kupp gets the Patriots, who have allowed at least 100 yards to three receivers this season, including Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who dominated out of the slot with 12 receptions for 117 yards back in Week 2. Kupp is a stand-alone play, but also a potential great play with Drake Maye as a stacking option
Justin Jefferson- $8,600- 3%
Historically, 3-to 4 times per year, Justin Jefferson is going to have a game where it simply breaks the slate. This season, he’s far overdue, as he has not topped 140 receiving yards in the year and has not scored a touchdown in the last three weeks. The last time that he had a four-game streak where he failed to score a touchdown was in 2022, and then he rattled off four touchdowns in the next five games. There’s simply no reason he should ever be 3% rostered despite the high-priced running backs in a given slate. The matchup is a difficult one against a good Tennessee pass defense, but this is a player who had one of his best games of the season against a very good San Francisco defense, as he had 133 receiving yards in that game. This is simply a foundational play, and if Justin Jefferson is ever 3% rostered, you need to play him similarly to Ja’Marr Chase, who paid off last week.
Other Receiving Options:
Jakobi Meyers- $5,600- 17%
Calvin Ridley- $6,200- 6%
Van Jefferson- $3,600- 2%
Tight End
Travis Kelce- $6,300- 10%
Kelce continues to be underpriced, especially in a favorable game script, which is a high-scoring game against the Bills. At $6,300, you’re getting a player who has at least eight catches over the last three weeks since Rashee Rice went down and has at least 12 targets in all three games. Kelce has a long history of success against Buffalo, as he has at least 50 yards in his last four games while scoring four touchdowns over that span. With no Matt Milaon, Jordan Poyer, and Micah Hyde, this is a scenario where Kelce is facing a much worse pass defense than he is used to facing over the last several seasons and should be able to take advantage of this.
Hunter Henry- $3,900- 14%
Hunter Henry has quietly been producing at just $3,900 this week. This is a player who has at least 14 DraftKings points in four of his last five games, and despite not performing last week, should be in a great spot once again in Week 11. Last week was a game that was never in doubt as the Patriots won 19-3, primarily led by their defense. This week, facing the Rams, New England is almost certainly going to need to throw the ball far more often to compete against the Los Angeles offense, and if you’re going to punt at the tight end position, Hunter Henry is the player to do so.
