Slate Overview- Week 8 Thoughts
Week 8 is a bit of a disaster due to injuries and bad pricing. DraftKings has completely mispriced the Miami Dolphins with Tua Tagovailoa’s return. Injuries have made it so that there is tremendous value all over the board this week. This type of pricing makes it less optimal as you have to factor in 2024-draftkings-gpp-domination-week08
Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De’Von Achane are all about $1,000 underpriced this week which is going to raise their roster percentage. However, because this is a 13-game slate, the roster percentage is not going to be nearly as high as many may think it will be, as we have it projected to be 23% for Hill, 15% for Waddle, and 22% for Achane. On a normal week, Hill would likely be 40% or higher this week. If Miami’s offense is able to bounce back to 2023 levels with Tua back at quarterback, they’re going to be a team that you do not want to fade. Tampa Bay is also a team that is very underpriced with the injuries to Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.
So, how do we approach this in a GPP? Many people are going to go with a lineup that just takes a lot of these under-valued players and loads up on the value plays by starting a Tampa receiver, Tyreek Hill, and Bo Nix while spending up at other positions. Tyreek Hill should be in your starting lineup as long as he stays below 50% rostered, as the upside is just too great compared to the price. However, for the Tampa receivers, you’re really playing a game of roulette. Everyone can convince themselves on a narrative of why to like one of their receivers, but the reality is that there is a strong chance that a more balanced lineup wins this week as it’s entirely possible that we see each of these guys have 35-50 yards.
Key Injuries for Week 8
- Deshaun Watson will miss the rest of the season with a torn Achilles. The Browns will start Jameis Winston, which should provide some life to this passing offense that still has some value available due to the trade of Amari Cooper.
- Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are both out this week. Chris Godwin’s injury occurred late in the Monday Night game after pricing had already been finalized, and this will make Cade Otton, Jalen McMillan, Trey Palmer, and Sterling Shepard all value plays. Of these options, expect Otton to be by far the most popular this week after a 100-yard performance in Week 7. However, Palmer is a top punt play this week after he showed upside in his limited experience in his rookie season. We haven’t seen Jalen McMillan breakout, but the third-round rookie is extremely talented and could have a big role this week.
- Tee Higgins was a late addition to the injury report with a quad injury. Being added to the injury report on Friday is always concerning. If Higgins is out, Andre Iosivas would see a slight upgrade but would be a downgrade to Ja’Marr Chase, who has failed to top 100 yards in each of his last five games without Higgins, averaging just 41.8 yards per game.
- The Panthers are a mess. Andy Dalton is out with a thumb injury, which means that Bryce Young will start this week. Diontae Johnson is also out this week with a rib injury, and Adam Thielen will need one more week to return from a hamstring injury. Denver’s defense should be a top play this week, but it is expensive at $3,700.
- Travis Etienne Jr. is questionable this week with a hamstring injury. At $6,300, Tank Bigsby is a little bit too expensive than what we’d like him to be, but he is a potential GPP play if Etienne were to miss this week against a Packers defense that allowed 115 yards and two touchdowns to Joe Mixon last week.
Stacks
Top Stack
Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
If you’re going to stack Tyreek Hill with Tua Tagovailoa, you should strongly consider taking Jaylen Waddle as well, or just take Tyreek Hill without Waddle. We know Tua is not going to be running the ball this week, given that he is coming off of a vicious concussion, and Mike McDaniel has made it fairly clear that he is worried about him. So, for Tagovailoa, the only path for him to be a GPP winner is to have a 300+ yard 3 touchdown performance. To do that, both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are likely going to need to have big games this week. The matchup is tremendous, as Arizona is allowing the fourth-most DraftKings points to opposing quarterbacks and has allowed 25 points or more three times this year.
Jalen Hurts, Ja’Marr Chase, A.J. Brown
This is an expensive stack, but it can be done this week based on all of the value that exists. A.J. Brown has scored a touchdown in each of his three games this season while topping 100 yards in two of those three games. He’s going to go under the radar at just 7% because of the price, but the Bengals' defense is going to be less than 100%. While Geno Stone looks like he is going to play, he was carted off last week with a shin injury, so how healthy he will be is largely up in the air. Cincinnati’s corners are one of the weakest parts of their defense, as Cam Taylor-Britt and DJ Turner have both struggled. Cincinnati has not faced a receiver on A.J. Brown’s level, as the two top receivers that they have faced are Terry McLaurin and Zay Flowers, who both topped 100 yards against Cincinnati.
For Chase, this is a similar play to A.J. Brown, as the Eagles’ secondary has largely been untested this season. While they did do a solid job of shutting down Malik Nabers last week, Mike Evans torched this defense with 23.4 DraftKings points back in Week 4. Chase has as much upside as any wide receiver on this slate, as he has two 30+ DraftKings point games this season.
Under the Radar Stacks
Kirk Cousins, Drake London, Trey Palmer
It’s a bit odd to have this as an under-the-radar stack after Kirk Cousins threw for 509 yards and four touchdowns just three weeks ago. However, things have changed drastically for Tampa Bay compared to that game, as they will be without both of their top two receiving options this week. Kirk Cousins is projected to be rostered by just 3% of rosters this week, which seems far too low at just $6,200. The collective worry about this game seems to be that Tampa Bay will not be able to keep up with enough offense for Cousins to be forced to throw. Even without Mike Evans last week, Tampa Bay was able to put up 31 points against Baltimore. While most of that was in garbage time, the Buccaneers are still going to try to throw the ball heavily in this game, and Godwin might reduce their expected offensive output by a couple of points, but it certainly is not going to be so significant of a player that this eliminates the chance that this game shoots out once again.
Choosing a Tampa Bay receiver is really a narrative that you have to convince yourself of. You have three players who are options: Jalen McMillan, who is likely the most talented and inexperienced player; the veteran Sterling Shepard; and Trey Palmer, who has the most experience with Baker Mayfield. The narrative that I’m personally going with is that McMillan has had chances in this offense, being on the field for 75% of the snaps in the first three games, and was unable to do anything with them. Meanwhile, for Palmer, we’ve at least seen him have a connection with Baker Mayfield last season.
Jameis Winston, Jerry Jeudy, Derrick Henry
Starting a quarterback and wide receiver on the opposite side of Derrick Henry has been a profitable strategy this season and something this article has been on for most of the year. Traditionally, optimizers and those with mass multi-entry are not going to be stacking the running back with the opposing quarterback/wide receiver, but in the case of Baltimore, their pass defense is so bad that it is correlated. The thinking here is all about garbage time. If Baltimore can get out to a big lead while having success running the ball with Derrick Henry, Cleveland will be forced to throw the ball 50 times, as we saw last week. For Winston, there’s enough upside here, similar to what we saw last year with Joe Flacco, that 300 yards is certainly possible.
Which wide receiver to stack with Winston is a big question. While many are looking at David Njoku and Cedric Tillman, Jerry Jeudy could be the answer here as he’s going to be significantly under the radar as many did not watch the Browns game last week. Five of Jameis Winston’s 11 targets went to Jeudy last week, while most of Tillman and David Njoku’s targets came when Deshaun Watson and Dorian Thompson Robinson were at quarterback. Tillman is going to be highly rostered at about 15% and is certainly a great value play given his $3,300 price tag, but Jeudy is going to be about 5% rostered this week and is still a value play at just $4,800.
Position Breakdown
The purpose of this section is to discuss how opponents are going to approach their lineups as well as the top plays at each position. Note a player that is not mentioned does not necessarily mean that he is a poor player. Oftentimes, when players are roughly the same each week, it's difficult to mention them in every article. Also, players listed in the Stacks section, will not be listed twice down here, as we’ve already established the analysis on them.
QUARTERBACK
High-End Play
Lamar Jackson- $8,000- 11%
Lamar Jackson needs to be strongly considered this week on a week with a significant amount of value. The $8,000 price tag is high, but it seems as if one of Jackson or Derrick Henry could be a critical piece this week to win a GPP. Cleveland’s defense is more worried about some fans cheering about Deshaun Watson’s injury instead of addressing their 1-6 start this season. Jackson is well on pace for his second consecutive MVP this season, as he’s averaging 27.6 DraftKings points per game with an upside that very few players on this slate have, as he has two 40+ performances this season.
Jordan Love- $7,100- 7%
Jordan Love has been on fire as of late and now gets one of the best matchups in the NFL. Love has thrown for three or more touchdowns in three of his last four games while also throwing for 389 yards back in Week 4. Since suspending Romeo Doubs, he’s led the team in targets and yards, adding another receiver to one of the league’s deepest units. Jacksonville is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season despite four of their games coming against Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, Deshaun Watson, and Joe Flacco. They’ve allowed 20 or more DraftKings points in each of their last four games, and Love should have a 30+ point upside this week as long as Jacksonville’s offense can keep this game competitive.
Value Play
Caleb Williams- $6,000- 5%
Coming off of a bye, Caleb Williams should have a strong opportunity this week against Washington. The Commanders' secondary has improved compared to 2023, but those numbers are largely skewed based on facing Andy Dalton, Deshaun Watson, and Daniel Jones. Washington has allowed at least 20 DraftKings points to Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Baker Mayfield. Caleb Williams has looked better lately compared to the slow start of his season. Prior to the bye, Caleb threw four touchdowns as the Bears blew out the Jaguars, but even more impressive is that Williams ran for 56 yards, as he has now run for 30 yards or more in each of his last two games. For Williams, you’re getting a player who is $400 more than Bo Nix below and just a third of the roster percentage.
Fade
Bo Nix- $5,600- 15%
The excitement level for Nix is high after his back-to-back weeks of 60 or more rushing yards. Many people are simply looking at the team total, looking at the price of Nix and his rushing upside, and the models are loving Nix this week. However, there are some concerns. With Bryce Young starting as the quarterback for Carolina, teams just do not need to throw the ball against this team. Last year, Carolina allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks at just 12.6 per game, while in the first two games of the season, they held Derrick Carr to 200 yards and Justin Herbert to just 130 passing yards. While touchdowns were an issue, as Carr had three and Herbert had 2, these are not GPP-winning performances. Nix has thrown just five touchdowns all season. So does he have 25 point upside? Probably not, unless Carolina can find a way to put some urgency in the Bronco's offense.
Running Back
Breece Hall-$7,300- 30%
Since Todd Downing took over as the offensive coordinator for the Jets, Breece Hall has been dominant. Hall had 169 total yards in Week 6 against Buffalo and 141 yards with a touchdown last week. Hall has also been more involved in the passing game, as he has 11 receptions over the last two games. For the Jets, this is a must-win game, and it could not have come against a better opponent this week. Facing a Patriots defense that has completely fallen apart. Since Week 4, New England has allowed 195 total yards to opposing running backs with 1.8 touchdowns per game. Hall has a chance to have a slate-breaking performance this week and should be higher rostered than 30% this week.
D'Andre Swift- $6,200- 9%
It’s amazing how people forget about a running back after not being on the main slate for the last two weeks. In his last three games, Swift has scored a touchdown in each game, averaged 135 total yards per game, and has shown receiving upside by catching seven catches against Carolina. While Washington’s run defense looked better last week, it was largely due to the game script, as Jayden Daniels was injured, and Washington won the game 40-7.
Value Plays
Kareem Hunt- $6,300- 11%
Kareem Hunt has revitalized his career in Kansas City after struggling last season in Cleveland. While Hunt’s yards per carry are only 4.0, the Chiefs are turning into a high-volume rushing attack, given their lack of receiving options due to key injuries. Hunt has 49 carries over the last two games, averaging 90 yards and 1.5 touchdowns against San Francisco and New Orleans. Las Vegas has allowed 15 or more DraftKings points to every running back that they’ve faced this season.
Wide Receiver
Tyler Lockett- $5,600-5%
With DK Metcalf out, both Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are top plays this week. The slight preference goes to Lockett based on his recent red zone volume as well as his PPR upside. Lockett has had seven red zone targets over the last four weeks, which has led the team. For Lockett to be at just 5% is too low as he should be able to exploit the Bills defense, which has allowed four receivers over the last three weeks to top 75 yards.
Amon-Ra St. Brown- $8,400- 7%
With Jameson Williams suspended, Tim Patrick and Khalif Raymond are going to draw some interest, but the most likely scenario here is that Detroit just narrows its volume around St. Brown. The matchup is a difficult one, taking a Titans defense that rebuilt their secondary this season, but they did struggle last week against Buffalo as Keon Coleman had 125 yards while Amari Cooper and Khalil Shakir both topped 60 yards.
Bottom of the Barrel-
You can take a chance on the following players if you need to save salary
Cedric Tillman- $3,300
Jalen McMillan- $3,700
Troy Franklin- 4,100
Rashod Bateman- $4,300
Tight End
Brock Bowers- $6,100- 8%
One way to build a different lineup this week is to spend up at tight end. A lot of the roster percentage is going to go to Cade Otton after his 100-yard performance last week, but for Bowers, you’re getting one of the highest-volume players in the NFL at just $6,100. Over the last three games since Aidan O’Connell has taken over, Bowers has at least ten targets per game while averaging nine receptions per contest. This is a massive advantage compared to other tight ends, for whom we’re hoping for four receptions for 50 yards most weeks. This should be a game that Las Vegas needs to throw a high volume.
David Njoku- $5,100- 11%
At the tight end position this week, you need to look at which players have upside. For Njoku, he has a chance to emerge as one of the league’s best fantasy tight ends after they traded away Amari Cooper and have lost Deshaun Watson for the season. With Jameis Winston starting, expect the target share to be narrow between Jerry Jeudy, Njoku, and Cedric Tillman. The Browns are in a high-volume spot here as the way to beat Baltimore is through the air, and they could throw the ball 50+ times as they did last week.
Bottom of the Barrel-
You can take a chance on the following players if you need to save salary
Cade Otton- $3,500
Hunter Henry- $3,800
Kyle Pitts- $4,400
