Slate Overview- Week 6 Thoughts
Week 6 is an interesting one because you’re going to have to make some key decisions about some offenses that are objectively terrible. What to do with teams such as the Chargers, Giants, Panthers, Patriots, Raiders, Browns, Titans, and Saints with Spencer Rattler starting?
The first question that you’re going to have to ask yourself heading into this game is whether or not to stack the Commanders/Ravens or Lions/Cowboys games. These players are going to have an increased ownership as these are the two high-scoring potential games of the week. The problem with stacking this game is that it’s going to be incredibly popular. By stacking these players, it limits your ability to build a roster that is different from most of the field given there are so few strong value plays this week.
Every week, we see a surprise team in the NFL that puts up a strong performance that is seemingly out of nowhere. Last week, it was the Giants who put up 29 points on the road to beat the Seahawks while they were without Malik Nabers and Devin Singletary. By targeting one of these teams, you could very easily get yourself an advantage over the field instead of just following the pack. For example, Andy Dalton has thrown for multiple touchdowns in two of his three starts this season, and while he had an abysmal game last week against Chicago, it was on the road in a very windy environment. While the Atlanta side of Kirk Cousins, Drake London, and Diontae Johnson is going to be popular, you can get extremely unique if you go the opposite way and replace Cousins with Dalton as Dalton is projected to be rostered in 1-2% of rosters this week.
Injuries Create Opportunity:
- Derek Carr is out this week. Spencer Rattler will get the start. Rattler at minimum price is going to be a key decision point for a lot of people. Rattler has upside, as he has amongst the best arm talent in this draft class, but his decision-making at times has been questionable dating back to his time at South Carolina and Oklahoma. Expect a lot of check-downs to Alvin Kamara and him staring down Chris Olave this week.
- Davante Adams is once again out this week. The Raiders will start Aidan O’Connell as well as they’re making a change away from Gardner Minshew II. Last week in relief we saw O’Connell lock on to Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers. No other player in Las Vegas should be in consideration, as Meyers/Bowers should get 70% of the targets this week.
- Anthony Richardson looks like he is going to return this week. While Richardson has an upside and is affordable, it’s hard to know whether he’s 100% and will be running at his normal pace. If you want to take a chance on the player, he’s a high-upside GPP-type guy who could pay off. However, from a receiver standpoint, this kills any of the receiver's value that is on the Colts even with Michael Pittman Jr out. It’s just difficult to trust the passing upside of Richardson.
- Malik Nabers will miss this week once again with a concussion. Both Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson are strong cash consideration plays this week. Slayton saw a significant uptick in usage last week catching 8 passes for 122 yards and a touchdown.
- Rachaad White is doubtful this week. With White being out, this will be Bucky Irving’s opportunity for the rookie to show he can be a primary running back.
- Rhamondre Stevenson is unlikely to play this week. Antonio Gibson will get the start, but how much of an increase in volume he will see remains to be seen. His price is a great one this week and could be a high-risk value play.
- Zamir White hasn’t practiced this week and looks like he will miss it. The matchup is a difficult one for Alexander Mattison this week but could be a nice pivot away from Antonio Gibson as Mattison should have a more guaranteed role.
- Brian Robinson Jr is out this week. In a game where the Commanders will need to throw the ball, Austin Ekeler should be a strong play this week.
- Jakobi Meyers is out this week. This elevates Tre Tucker up to one of the top value plays on this slate at $4,200. Brock Bowers is still too expensive at $6,000, although he should see a significant amount of volume this week.
Stacks
Jayden Daniels, Derrick Henry, Terry McLaurin
This is a difficult one to fit all of the pieces in, but it’s doable. Starting a running back with an opposing quarterback normally is not that great of a strategy as it typically has a negative correlation. The more teams run the ball, the fewer plays on both sides of the ball, and this typically means a blowout situation. However, in this game, the blowout situation is exactly what we’re targeting. If Baltimore can get out to an early lead with multiple Derrick Henry touchdowns, this could be a premiere spot for Jayden Daniels to lead Washington to a comeback. Baltimore is allowing the most passing yards in the NFL this season, and while they have faced a very difficult schedule, Daniels presents an opportunity at just 4% rostered for this game to be a shootout and have garbage time points. Cincinnati’s offense facing Baltimore was a team we targeted last week as one of the top stacks, and it paid off immensely with this exact same stack.
Washington boasts one of the league’s worst run defenses. They have not faced anyone to the caliber of Derrick Henry this year, with the best running back that they’ve faced being James Conner. This is a team that has undergone significant change over the last few seasons defensively, as they traded away Montez Sweat and Chase Young, and their once elite defensive line has turned into guys worried about pass rushing more than run stopping as Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne both have struggled in 2024 stopping the run.
Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, Amari Cooper
The Browns are very much on quit watch this season. At 1-4, they’ve lost to some of the worst football teams in the NFL this season. While their run defense is still putting in a significant effort, it’s their pass defense that has major concerns. Denzel Ward is questionable, which is a major issue for Cleveland. This is not a deep defense, as their number two cornerback Martin Emerson Jr is amongst the worst cornerbacks in football which should tell you all that you need to know about their backup depth. The Browns are also without their top 3 safeties this week as Juan Thornhill is on IR, while Grant Delpit and Ronnie Hickman are also out this week.
On the Browns' side, we’ve seen Amari Cooper have an upside. For the Eagles to have the upside to win a GPP, you’re likely going to need the Browns to move the ball somehow. Cooper has 8 targets or more in every game this season, which should provide an upside for the player this week with the Browns desperately needing someone to make plays in this offense.
Under the Radar Stack
Dak Prescott, Jalen Tolbert, Jake Ferguson, Amon-Ra St. Brown
The theory behind this play is that this game turns into a shootout while CeeDee Lamb struggles. Lamb has failed to top 100 yards this season, doesn’t have more than 10 targets in a game, and is averaging just five receptions per game. By taking both Tolbert and Ferguson, you’ll essentially get most of his other yards and touchdowns as with no Brandin Cooks, the Cowboys are incredibly thin at the receiver position at this point in the season. This is the highest projected scoring game on this slate, which ultimately means it will be one of the highest-stacked games on this slate. Avoiding Lamb in that slate does create variation and instead spending the salary on Amon-Ra St. Brown on the other side.
Position Breakdown
The purpose of this section is to discuss how opponents are going to approach their lineups as well as what are the top plays at each position. Note, a player that is not mentioned does not necessarily mean that he is a poor play. Oftentimes, when players are roughly the same each week, it's difficult to mention them in every article. Also, players listed in the Stacks section, will not be listed twice down here, as we’ve already established the analysis on them.
QUARTERBACK
High-End Play
Lamar Jackson- $7,800- 14%
At $7,800, Lamar should once again be a highly-rostered player this week as he was last week. He has the upside that very few quarterbacks on this slate have, and continues to be a player that is better off not stacked or only stacked with players from the other team as we saw last week. Both Jackson and Daniels are in a league of their own on this slate with the only other quarterback able to join the conversation when it comes to the rushing upside being Jalen Hurts. For Lamar, there will be big questions answered about how real this Washington team is and whether it is just a fortunate early season schedule or their defense has improved this much. This is still a defense that allowed 289 yards and 4 touchdowns to Baker Mayfield, and 324 and 3 touchdowns to Joe Burrow over the first two weeks of the season.
Value Play
Spencer Rattler- $4,000- 5%
The bar for Spencer Rattler to clear to at least be GPP viable this week is so incredibly low at $4,000. Typically for a GPP, you’re looking at a 4x multiple from every player, with an upside for more depending on how crazy the top-end players actually go. 16 points for Rattler, theoretically reaches GPP value on most weeks, which even for a rookie should be doable considering the Buccaneers just allowed 509 yards and 4 touchdowns to Kirk Cousins. The real question for Rattler, however, is what is his actual upside. It’s easy to say “All he needs is 16 points” which is essentially 200 yards and 2 touchdowns. However, what other sites won’t tell you is that it’s not that simple. You need 4x your salary for every position. Meaning, that if you save $3,500 in salary by going with Rattler, you’re going to need that player that you invested in to also get 4x their salary.
Therefore, the real number that we likely need from Rattler is much higher than a simple 4x, salary, so what is the target number? If he can get 20-25 points, you’re in at least a competitive spot in a GPP with him assuming you can re-invest your salary and some of the high-end running backs or wide receivers come through while paired with him. He’s not going to have the same upside as one of the game’s elite running quarterbacks, but he has the arm talent to have success this week, as he’s one of the best throwers of the football in this draft class.
What I personally will do for a Spencer Rattler team is to double up at the same position. Take Spencer Rattler with Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley, or Spencer Rattler with Amon-Ra St. Brown and CeeDee Lamb to effectively get the game stack there without the quarterbacks. Most people who do go down to Rattler will invest in one high-end player at each position, so doubling up with either Henry/Barkley or two high-end receivers should create some uniqueness to the field.
Running Back
Chuba Hubbard- $6,300- 34%
Chuba Hubbard has been a gold mine for fantasy players this season who have continued to just ride this hot streak. Over the last three weeks, Hubbard has basically been Christian McCaffrey in this offense as he has averaged 25 DraftKings points over the last three weeks running for 90 yards or more in each of those three games while catching at least four passes in every game. 34% projected roster percentage is getting a little higher than we’d like for the running back, but this is a player who is still just 25 years old and is now experiencing his first breakout opportunity now that the team has a competent quarterback. Having looked back at history, and remembering that Priest Holmes did not have his breakout until age 28, is something that reminds us all that we can write off some of these players, but they can very easily improve after college from 22 to 25 and become one of the better players in the NFL. The matchup against Atlanta is a manageable one as they have allowed at least 70 yards to every running back that they’ve faced this season.
Austin Ekeler $5,600- 12%
With the news that Brian Robinson Jr is out this week, Austin Ekeler should be strongly considered as a GPP play. Ekeler last week showed that he has the burst that he had early on in his career in Los Angeles as he had 6 carries for 66 yards set up by a 50-yard gain. With the Ravens having a good pass rush, we can also have an upside here for more check-downs to one of the league’s premier receivers at the running back position. Last week we saw Cincinnati’s duo of Zack Moss and Chase Brown catch six passes out of the backfield, and at $5,600, if Ekeler is able to catch 4-to 5 passes and find the end-zone he’s going to quickly become GPP relevant.
Tony Pollard- $6,000 22%
Tony Pollard has been the bright spot for the struggling Titans offense this season. Despite the lack of a passing attack, Pollard has topped 90 total yards in three of his four games this season with the only game he failed to do so being a 30-14 loss to Green Bay in which they were never competitive and forced to abandon the run due to game script. This week, Pollard gets to face a Colts defense that has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL as they’ve allowed three running backs to top 100 yards already this season as Tank Bigsby was able to join Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs as those two topped 150 yards against this defense back in Weeks 1 and 2.
Other Options:
Bucky Irving
Antonio Gibson
J.K. Dobbins
Wide Receiver
DJ Turner- $3,300- 0.2%
If you’re looking at wide receivers in Las Vegas and need a complete punt play, DJ Turner could be the guy. Aidan O’Connell has a tendency to lock onto certain wide receivers. In the game against Denver when O’Connell came in for Gardner Minshew II, he targeted Turner 5 times (one time was called for pass interference thus not showing up on the stat sheet). O’Connell targeted Turner on four consecutive plays in that game. With no Jakobi Meyers to get a player like Turner who is not on anyone’s radar is a risk, but one that if you want to take a chance on provides immediate salary relief for a player who may get 10 targets.
Jalen Tolbert- $5,000- 12%
For Jalen Tolbert, he’s likely going to be matched up heavily against the rookie Terrion Arnold this week who was the first-round pick for the Lions this pre-season. As a cornerback, Arnold’s overall stats do not look bad, until you take into account his penalty statistics. This is a cornerback who is struggling mightily as he leads the NFL in pass interference penalties with five while no other cornerback has more than 3 so far this season. He's also added two additional holding penalties. The team has said that he needs to stop committing penalties, but he’s trying to prevent himself from getting burned and instead grabs the player to prevent them from catching the ball. Obviously, this is not ideal from a fantasy perspective as we don’t get points for pass interference penalties, but if the team is telling him to stop committing penalties, he’s still going to be getting burned thus creating the opportunity in the highest projected scoring game of the week for Tolbert to get behind this defense for a big play this week.
A.J. Brown $7,800- 7%
Very similar to the Eagles stack, this Browns team is on quit watch. Would it surprise anyone if the Eagles came out and won this game by 14 or 21 points this week? The Browns don’t rotate cornerbacks and only play zone defense on 39% of the plays which is the second-lowest in the NFL. This means that the Eagles should be able to get matchups with A.J. Brown against Martin Emerson Jr the league’s worst cornerback and the Browns have no safety help over the top as they’re without their top 3 safeties this week. This is an ideal spot, despite the $7,800 price point for Brown to potentially have one of those slate-changing days for the Eagles receiver.
Jameson Williams- $5,800- 6%
Jameson Williams is a way to build differentiation into your lineup this week while still targeting that Dallas vs Detroit game. At 18.0 yards per catch, he’s one of the league’s most explosive players against a defense that did struggle to stop Malik Nabers allowing the Giants receiver to go for 12 receptions for 115 yards back in Week 4.
George Pickens- $5,900- 4%
Pickens was incredibly popular in some of the slates including the Sunday Night game last week. He was largely a non-factor as the entire Steelers offense struggled to move the ball. However, Pickens is the type of player who is going to have week-to-week variance, thus allowing us to get a player at a lower roster percentage than we would get him coming off of a great performance from the receiver. Pickens should see a lot of Jakorian Bennett who has been one of the worst cornerbacks in the NFL this season.
Other Options:
Jayden Reed- $7,000- 14%
Darnell Mooney- $5,300- 11%
Tank Dell- $6,200- 7%
Rashod Bateman- $4,100- 3%
Xavier Hutchinson $3,300- 2%
Tight End
The tight end is a disaster this week. You’re going to see most of the roster percentage centered around a couple of different players. This week, about 50% of the roster percentage at the position is going to be centered around Dalton Kincaid, Tucker Kraft, and Erick All Jr.. With how random the tight end position is, these are pretty easy fades as you're hoping for touchdown variance on a week where there are just not the elite tight ends that we've become accustomed to over the last couple of seasons.
Jake Ferguson- $5,000- 24%
If there’s any good news about the Jakobi Meyers injury, it is that Jake Ferguson’s roster percentage is going to decrease just a little bit with more people trying to fit Brock Bowers in their lineup. Bowers at $6,000 is just too expensive on a week where there is so little value. For Ferguson, he gets you that share of the Detroit/Dallas game that many are going to be targeting, but also has 7 or more targets in each of his last three games and is averaging 13.3 DraftKings points per game despite not scoring a touchdown. Touchdowns will come for Ferguson who led the team in red zone targets in 2024, but the team has thrown the ball just 15 times total in the red zone this season.
Mark Andrews- $3,900 1%
If just a few weeks ago, I had told you that Mark Andrews would have been just $3,900 and no one wanted to play him, you would have taken all the shares of the tight end as you could get. Andrews has been dreadful this season, but we did see him have more of a role this past week catching 4 passes for 55 yards. He also saw his snap count increase to 55% of the plays last week compared to 33% and 46% the two prior weeks. For Andrews, he’s a player who has upside, and could be improving, but is a significant risk this week.
